ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 ArcelorMittal SA Earnings Call | AllMind AI Earnings | AllMind AI
Q4 2025 ArcelorMittal SA Earnings Call
Speaker #1: ArcelorMittal's performance 2025. Present on today's call, we have our CEO, Aditya and progress in Mittal, and our CFO, Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I'd like to mention a usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our website.
Speaker #1: ArcelorMittal's performance 2025. Present on today's call, we have our CEO, Aditya and progress in Mittal, and our CFO, Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I'd like to mention a usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our few housekeeping items.
Speaker #1: presentation. Following opening remarks from Aditya and Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. So if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue.
Speaker #1: And with that, I will hand over
Speaker #1: the call to Aditya.
Speaker #2: everyone. And thank you for joining today's call. Before I ask Genuino to walk through our financial performance, I want to start by reflecting on the progress we have made against our 2025 priorities.
Speaker #2: everyone. And thank you for joining today's call. Before I ask Genuino to walk through our financial performance, I want to start by reflecting on the progress we have made against our
Speaker #2: When I look back at the year, Welcome,
Speaker #2: the achievements are clear, and everyone at ArcelorMittal should be very proud of what we have delivered. I will focus on three key topics. First, on safety.
Speaker #2: Across the injuries. Secondly, on trade policy. ArcelorMittal has need to address the market been a vocal advocate for the distortions created by excess capacity and unfair trade dynamics.
Speaker #2: organization, our people are galvanized and fully engaged in improving safety performance. A year ago, we outlined a three-year safety transformation plan. And in 2025, we have seen real, measurable progress.
Speaker #2: All key safety KPIs have improved, most notably fatality prevention. Custom safety roadmaps are at the heart of ArcelorMittal's transformation program, designed to strengthen our safety culture and enhance risk management and drive As progress towards our goal of zero fatalities and serious Thanks, Daniel.
Speaker #2: It is encouraging to see the European Commission recognize and address this over the past 12 months. With the new carbon border adjustment mechanism in place, we are now competing on a more level playing field.
Speaker #2: And the new tariff rate quota trade measure will significantly limit the amount of steel that can be dumped into the European market. Together, this fundamentally resets the outlook for the European steel industry and creates the conditions for a balanced, market-structured that will restore profitability and returns on capital to healthy levels.
Daniel Fairclough: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in 2025. Present on today's call, we have our CEO, Aditya Mittal, and our CFO, Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I'd like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 26 of that presentation. Following opening remarks from Aditya and Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. So if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue. And with that, I will hand over the call to Aditya.
Daniel Fairclough: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in 2025. Present on today's call, we have our CEO, Aditya Mittal, and our CFO, Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I'd like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 26 of that presentation. Following opening remarks from Aditya and Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. So if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue. And with that, I will hand over the call to Aditya.
Speaker #1: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in 2025.
Speaker #1: Present on today's call, we have our CEO, Aditya Mittal, and our CFO, Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I'd like to mention a few housekeeping items.
Speaker #1: As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide presentation.
Speaker #2: I want to take this opportunity to reassure our customers that ArcelorMittal is ready and able to meet all their needs for high-quality steel delivered with the us.
Speaker #1: Following opening remarks from Aditya and Genuino, we will move—if you'd like to ask a question, please press *11 on your keypad to join the queue.
Speaker #2: And best-in-class service they expect from while Europe has perhaps seen the most significant changes in trade policy, we are seeing real efforts in Canada, and Brazil, to also protect their domestic markets.
Speaker #1: And with that, I will hand over the call to Aditya.
Speaker #2: This should add incremental support to our results in those regions as we move through this year. Moving to my third topic, growth. ArcelorMittal's growth strategy is clearly differentiated and sets us apart from our peers.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I financial performance, I want to start ask Genuino to walk through our by reflecting on the progress we have made against our 2025 priorities.
Aditya Mittal: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I ask Genuino to walk through our financial performance, I want to start by reflecting on the progress we have made against our 2025 priorities. When I look back at the year, the achievements are clear, and everyone at ArcelorMittal should be very proud of what we have delivered. I will focus on three key topics. First, on safety. Across the organization, our people are galvanized and fully engaged in improving safety performance. A year ago, we outlined a three-year safety transformation plan, and in 2025, we have seen real, measurable progress. All key safety KPIs have improved, most notably fatality prevention. Custom safety roadmaps are at the heart of ArcelorMittal's transformation program, designed to strengthen our safety culture, enhance risk management, and drive progress towards our goal of zero fatalities and serious injuries.
Aditya Mittal: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I ask Genuino to walk through our financial performance, I want to start by reflecting on the progress we have made against our 2025 priorities. When I look back at the year, the achievements are clear, and everyone at ArcelorMittal should be very proud of what we have delivered. I will focus on three key topics. First, on safety. Across the organization, our people are galvanized and fully engaged in improving safety performance. A year ago, we outlined a three-year safety transformation plan, and in 2025, we have seen real, measurable progress. All key safety KPIs have improved, most notably fatality prevention. Custom safety roadmaps are at the heart of ArcelorMittal's transformation program, designed to strengthen our safety culture, enhance risk management, and drive progress towards our goal of zero fatalities and serious injuries.
Speaker #2: In 2025, we began to reap the benefits of several strategic investments made in recent portfolio optimization helped support our results in 2025. And this growth momentum will continue.
Speaker #2: When I look back at the year, the achievements are clear, and everyone at ArcelorMittal should be very proud of what we have delivered. I will focus on three key topics.
Speaker #2: First, on safety. Across the organization, our people are galvanized and fully engaged in improving safety performance. A year safety transformation plan, and in 2025, we have seen real measurable progress.
Speaker #2: Our strategic projects will add an additional 1.6 billion dollars of EBITDA in the near future. A core pillar of our growth strategy is energy transition.
Speaker #2: expanding our renewables We are portfolio, we are building electrical steel and mobility, and we are expanding our EF footprint with the economics make sense.
Speaker #2: All key safety KPIs have improved, most notably fatality prevention. Customs safety roadmaps are at the heart of ArcelorMittal's transformation program, designed to strengthen our safety culture, enhance risk management, and drive progress towards our goal of zero fatalities and serious injuries.
Speaker #2: We remain laser-focused on competitiveness and allocating capital to where we can achieve the strongest returns. We are consistently generating solid investable cash flow. 1.9 billion in 2025 and 2 billion the year before.
Speaker #2: Secondly, on trade policy. ArcelorMittal has been a vocal advocate for the need to address the market distortions created by excess capacity and unfair trade dynamics.
Aditya Mittal: Secondly, on trade policy. ArcelorMittal has been a vocal advocate for the need to address the market distortions created by excess capacity and unfair trade dynamics. It is encouraging to see the European Commission recognize and address this over the past twelve months. With the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in place, we are now competing on a more level playing field, and the new Tariff-Rate Quota trade measure will significantly limit the amount of steel that can be dumped into the European market. Together, this fundamentally resets the outlook for the European steel industry and creates the conditions for a balanced market structure that will restore profitability and returns on capital to healthy levels. I want to take this opportunity to reassure our customers that ArcelorMittal is ready and able to meet all their needs for high-quality steel, delivered with the best-in-class service they expect from us.
Aditya Mittal: Secondly, on trade policy. ArcelorMittal has been a vocal advocate for the need to address the market distortions created by excess capacity and unfair trade dynamics. It is encouraging to see the European Commission recognize and address this over the past twelve months. With the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in place, we are now competing on a more level playing field, and the new Tariff-Rate Quota trade measure will significantly limit the amount of steel that can be dumped into the European market. Together, this fundamentally resets the outlook for the European steel industry and creates the conditions for a balanced market structure that will restore profitability and returns on capital to healthy levels. I want to take this opportunity to reassure our customers that ArcelorMittal is ready and able to meet all their needs for high-quality steel, delivered with the best-in-class service they expect from us.
Speaker #2: This enables us to continue strengthening the business through investment in these high-return opportunities while consistently returning cash to shareholders. As I conclude, my message is simple.
Speaker #2: It is encouraging to see the European market over the past 12 months. With the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in place, we are now competing on a more level playing field, and the Commission recognizes and addresses this.
Speaker #2: A more supportive trade policy has reshaped the outlook of our business. This is set to amplify the transformational progress we have delivered at ArcelorMittal in recent cycles.
Speaker #2: And the new tariff rate quota trade measure will significantly limit the amount of steel that can be dumped into ago, we outlined a three-year the European market.
Speaker #2: We benefit from best-in-class operations and an industry-leading R&D program. Our reputation for quality, innovation, and operational excellence sets us apart from our competition. And this is all down to our people.
Speaker #2: Together, this fundamentally resets the outlook for the European steel industry and creates the conditions for a balanced market structure that will restore profitability and returns on capital to healthy levels.
Speaker #2: So I would like to sincerely thank our employees, and also our key stakeholders for their continued trust, commitment, and support. I will now hand it over our financial to Genuino to talk more about
Speaker #2: I want to take this opportunity to reassure our customers that ArcelorMittal is ready and able to meet steel delivered with the best-in-class service they expect from while Europe has perhaps seen the most us.
Speaker #2: performance. Thank
Speaker #1: you, Aditya. And good afternoon, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was another year in which the resilience of our business was clearly demonstrated.
Speaker #2: And all their needs for high-quality policy, we are seeing real efforts in Canada, and Brazil, to also protect their domestic markets. This should add significant changes in trade regions as we move through this year.
Aditya Mittal: And while Europe has perhaps seen the most significant changes in trade policy, we are seeing real efforts in Canada and Brazil to also protect their domestic markets. This should add incremental support to our results in those regions as we move through this year. Moving to my third topic, growth. ArcelorMittal's growth strategy is clearly differentiated and sets us apart from our peers. In 2025, we began to reap the benefits of several strategic investments made in recent years. Our projects and portfolio optimization helped support our results in 2025, and this growth momentum will continue. Our strategic projects will add an additional $1.6 billion of EBITDA in the near future. A core pillar of our growth strategy is energy transition.
Aditya Mittal: And while Europe has perhaps seen the most significant changes in trade policy, we are seeing real efforts in Canada and Brazil to also protect their domestic markets. This should add incremental support to our results in those regions as we move through this year. Moving to my third topic, growth. ArcelorMittal's growth strategy is clearly differentiated and sets us apart from our peers. In 2025, we began to reap the benefits of several strategic investments made in recent years. Our projects and portfolio optimization helped support our results in 2025, and this growth momentum will continue. Our strategic projects will add an additional $1.6 billion of EBITDA in the near future. A core pillar of our growth strategy is energy transition.
Speaker #1: We delivered EBITDA of 6.5 billion, which is equivalent to 121 EBITDA per ton shift. This is almost double the margin that we achieved at previous cyclical low points and reflects how the earnings power of ArcelorMittal has structurally improved.
Speaker #2: Moving to my third topic, incremental support to our results in those growth. ArcelorMittal's growth strategy is clearly differentiated and sets us apart 2025, we began to reap the from our peers.
Speaker #1: The benefits of our optimized asset base and our diversified footprint are now being complemented by the additional EBITDA being generated by our strategic projects.
Speaker #2: The benefits of several strategic investments made in recent portfolio optimization helped support our results in years. 2025, and this growth, our projects, and momentum will continue.
Speaker #1: In 2025, these projects contributed 0.7 billion of new EBITDA, driven by a record performance continued build-out of our renewables in Liberia, the capacity in India, and a significant strengthening of our US footprint following the full consolidation of Calvert.
Speaker #2: Our strategic projects will add an billion dollars of EBITDA in the near future. A core In is energy transition. We are pillar of our growth strategy expanding our renewables portfolio, we are building electrical steel mobility, and we are expanding capacities to support electrification and our EF footprint with the economics make sense.
Aditya Mittal: We are expanding our renewables portfolio, we are building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility, and we are expanding our EF footprint where the economics make sense. We remain laser focused on competitiveness and allocating capital to where we can achieve the strongest returns. We are consistently generating solid investable cash flow, $1.9 billion in 2025, and $2 billion the year before. This enables us to continue strengthening the business through investment in these high return opportunities, while consistently returning cash to shareholders. As I conclude, my message is simple: A more supportive trade policy has reshaped the outlook of our business. This is set to amplify the transformational progress we have delivered at ArcelorMittal in recent cycles. We benefit from best-in-class operations and an industry-leading R&D program.
Aditya Mittal: We are expanding our renewables portfolio, we are building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility, and we are expanding our EF footprint where the economics make sense. We remain laser focused on competitiveness and allocating capital to where we can achieve the strongest returns. We are consistently generating solid investable cash flow, $1.9 billion in 2025, and $2 billion the year before. This enables us to continue strengthening the business through investment in these high return opportunities, while consistently returning cash to shareholders. As I conclude, my message is simple: A more supportive trade policy has reshaped the outlook of our business. This is set to amplify the transformational progress we have delivered at ArcelorMittal in recent cycles. We benefit from best-in-class operations and an industry-leading R&D program.
Speaker #1: Turning to cash flows, in 2025, we generated 1.9 billion of investable cash. This brings the total investable cash flow generated since 2021 to 23.5 billion.
Speaker #2: We remain laser-focused on competitiveness and allocating capital to where we can achieve the strongest returns. We are consistently generating solid investable cash flow. 1.9 billion in 2025 and 2 billion the year before.
Speaker #1: Last year, we billion towards high-return allocated 1.1 strategic growth projects, returned 0.7 billion to shareholders, and deployed 0.2 billion cash to M&A. Alongside 1.7 billion of net debt assumed through this transaction.
Speaker #2: This enables us to continue strengthening the business through investment in these high-return opportunities while consistently returning cash to shareholders. As I conclude, it has reshaped the outlook of our simple—a more supportive trade policy business.
Speaker #1: Our results continue to show that ArcelorMittal can deliver value through all phases of the steel cycle. Today, we have proposed a base dividend of 60 cents per share.
Speaker #2: This is set to amplify the transformational progress we have delivered at ArcelorMittal in recent cycles. We benefit from best-in-class operations and an industry-leading R&D program.
Speaker #1: This marks a doubling of our dividend over the past five years, and reflects our increasing confidence in the company's outlook. In addition to dividends, our share buyback program has been a major driver of value creation.
Speaker #2: Our reputation for quality, innovation, and us apart from our competition, and this is all down to our operational excellence sets people. So I would like to sincerely thank our stakeholders for their continued trust, commitment, and employees, and also our key support.
Aditya Mittal: Our reputation for quality, innovation, and operational excellence sets us apart from our competition, and this is all down to our people. So I would like to sincerely thank our employees, and also our key stakeholders, for their continued trust, commitment, and support. I will now hand it over to Genuino to talk more about our financial performance.
Aditya Mittal: Our reputation for quality, innovation, and operational excellence sets us apart from our competition, and this is all down to our people. So I would like to sincerely thank our employees, and also our key stakeholders, for their continued trust, commitment, and support. I will now hand it over to Genuino to talk more about our financial performance.
Speaker #1: Our share count has been reduced by 38% over the past five years, a pace unmatched by any of our peers. Significantly enhancing value per share.
Speaker #1: Finally, regarding the positive outlook for 2026, we expect higher steel production and shipments across all our regions this year. Supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections.
Speaker #2: I will now hand it over to Genuino to talk more about our financials.
Speaker #2: performance.
Speaker #1: Thank
Speaker #1: you, Aditya, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me 2025 was another year in start by saying that which the resilience of our business was clearly demonstrated.
Genuino Christino: Thank you, Aditya, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was another year in which the resilience of our business was clearly demonstrated. We delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, which is equivalent to 121 EBITDA per ton shipped. This is almost double the margin that we achieved at previous cyclical low points, and reflect how the earnings power of ArcelorMittal has structurally improved. The benefits of our optimized asset base and our diversified footprint are now being complemented by the additional EBITDA being generated by our strategic projects. In 2025, these projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA, driven by a record performance in Liberia, the continued build-out of our renewables capacity in India, and a significant strengthening of our US footprint following the full consolidation of Calvert.
Genuino Christino: Thank you, Aditya, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was another year in which the resilience of our business was clearly demonstrated. We delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, which is equivalent to 121 EBITDA per ton shipped. This is almost double the margin that we achieved at previous cyclical low points, and reflect how the earnings power of ArcelorMittal has structurally improved. The benefits of our optimized asset base and our diversified footprint are now being complemented by the additional EBITDA being generated by our strategic projects. In 2025, these projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA, driven by a record performance in Liberia, the continued build-out of our renewables capacity in India, and a significant strengthening of our US footprint following the full consolidation of Calvert.
Speaker #1: We are confident in our ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond. And we will remain disciplined in allocating this through our established capital return policy.
Speaker #1: We delivered EBITDA of 6.5 billion, which is equivalent to 121 EBITDA per ton shift. This is almost double the margin that we achieved at previous cyclical low points and reflects how the earnings power of ArcelorMittal has structurally improved.
Speaker #1: With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to
Speaker #1: With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to Q&A. Excellent.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Genuino. So just to remind everybody, if you would like to ask a question, to join the queue, please do press star, one, one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #1: The benefits of our optimized asset base and our diversified footprint are now being complemented by the additional EBITDA being generated by our strategic projects.
Speaker #2: We have a good queue already, and we'll take the first question from Alain. Morgan Stanley. Hi,
Speaker #2: Alain. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Everyone, and thank you
Speaker #3: for taking my questions. I've got a couple. I'll take them one at a time. First one is on Europe. So the industry structure is changing, and you have quite a flexibility across your European assets to bring in more funds to the market should they be needed.
Speaker #1: In contributed 0.7 billion of new EBITDA, driven by a record performance in Liberia, the continued build-out of our renewables capacity in India, and a significant strengthening of our US footprint following the full consolidation of Calvert.
Speaker #3: How quickly can you bring these funds online, and what signposts would you look for before making that decision? That's the first question. Thanks.
Genuino Christino: Turning to cash flows, in 2025, we generated $1.9 billion of investable cash. This brings the total investable cash flow generated since 2021 to $23.5 billion. Last year, we allocated $1.1 billion towards high return strategic growth projects, returned $0.7 billion to shareholders, and deployed $0.2 billion cash to M&A, alongside $1.7 billion of net debt assumed through these transactions. Our results continue to show that ArcelorMittal can deliver value through all phases of the steel cycle. Today, we have proposed a base dividend of $0.60 per share. This marks a doubling of our dividend over the past 5 years and reflects our increasing confidence in the company's outlook. In addition to dividends, our share buyback program has been a major driver of value creation.
Genuino Christino: Turning to cash flows, in 2025, we generated $1.9 billion of investable cash. This brings the total investable cash flow generated since 2021 to $23.5 billion. Last year, we allocated $1.1 billion towards high return strategic growth projects, returned $0.7 billion to shareholders, and deployed $0.2 billion cash to M&A, alongside $1.7 billion of net debt assumed through these transactions. Our results continue to show that ArcelorMittal can deliver value through all phases of the steel cycle. Today, we have proposed a base dividend of $0.60 per share. This marks a doubling of our dividend over the past 5 years and reflects our increasing confidence in the company's outlook. In addition to dividends, our share buyback program has been a major driver of value creation.
Speaker #1: Turning to cash flows, in 2025, we generated 1.9 billion of investable cash. This brings the total investable cash flow generated since 2021 to 23.5 billion.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Alain. Can you say the last bit? What I missed it. What do we have to look for before we bring the capacity online?
Speaker #2: What was the question?
Speaker #3: Indeed. What signposts are you looking for before bringing in your capacity online? How quickly can you bring this capacity as well? Thanks.
Speaker #2: Fantastic. Thank you, Alain. So yeah, yeah, look, I think clearly the biggest change since I last spoke to you guys has been Europe. I won't go through the details of the TRQ and the CBAM program.
Speaker #1: Last year, we allocated 1.1 billion towards high return strategic growth projects, return 0.7 billion to shareholders, and M&A, alongside 1.7 billion of net debt assumed through this deployed 0.2 billion cash to deliver value through all phases of transaction.
Speaker #2: In terms of your question, we are well positioned. At ArcelorMittal, because we do have certain idle capacity. We can bring that online quite quickly.
Speaker #2: It is not subject to reline. It is not subject to bringing back permanently laid off. So we could meet the deadline that is projected.
Speaker #1: the steel cycle. Today, we have proposed a Our results continue base dividend of 60 cents per share. This marks a doubling of our dividend over the past five years, and reflects our increasing confidence in the company's outlook.
Speaker #2: I think the best the latest estimate remains 1st of July. For the TRQ to be put in place, hopefully earlier, but today the latest estimate is 1st of July.
Speaker #1: In addition to dividends, our share buyback program has been a major driver of value creation. Our share count has been reduced by years, a pace unmatched by any of our peers.
Speaker #2: And we'd be able to bring the capacity online in that timeframe. What is the capacity? You may ask as a follow-up. We do have the ramp-up of our Systal Minimill, which is underway.
Genuino Christino: Our share count has been reduced by 38% over the past 5 years, a pace unmatched by any of our peers, significantly enhancing value per share. Finally, regarding the positive outlook for 2026, we expect higher steel production and shipments across all our regions this year, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections. We are confident in our ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, and we will remain disciplined in allocating this through our established capital return policy. With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to Q&As.
Genuino Christino: Our share count has been reduced by 38% over the past 5 years, a pace unmatched by any of our peers, significantly enhancing value per share. Finally, regarding the positive outlook for 2026, we expect higher steel production and shipments across all our regions this year, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections. We are confident in our ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, and we will remain disciplined in allocating this through our established capital return policy. With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to Q&As.
Speaker #1: Significantly enhancing value per 2026, we regarding depositive outlook for shipments across all our regions this year. improvements and strengthened trade Supported by operational protections.
Speaker #2: We have a new electric furnace in Gihon. And we do have some spare blast furnace capacity. So it's a combination of the above. In terms of idle capacity or available capacity.
Speaker #2: In terms of signposts, I think signposts are very customer demand, i.e., requirement in the market. We don't want to bring in capacity just for the sake of bringing back capacity.
Speaker #1: our ability to continue We are confident in generating positive free cash flows in 2026 and our established capital return policy. Q&As.
Speaker #1: our ability to continue We are confident in generating positive free cash flows in 2026 and our established capital return policy. With that, Daniel, I believe Excellent.
Speaker #2: And related to that, and underpinning all of that is earning a healthy and sustainable return on the capital employed in Europe. So clearly, we remain focused on meeting customer demand, but at the same time, ensuring that these tons are profitable and achieve our return
Daniel Fairclough: Excellent. Thanks, Genuino. So just to remind everybody, if you would like to ask a question, to join the queue, please do press star one one on your telephone keypad. We have a good queue already, and we'll take the first question from Alain at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alain, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Excellent. Thanks, Genuino. So just to remind everybody, if you would like to ask a question, to join the queue, please do press star one one on your telephone keypad. We have a good queue already, and we'll take the first question from Alain at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alain, please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Genuino. So just a reminder, everybody, if you would like to ask a question to join the queue, please do press star, one, one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Thank you very much. And my second question is on the usual profits, which
Speaker #3: which is Q4 into Q1. Including the impact of the restart costs in Europe. If you decide to bring in thresholds. some capacity in Q1, and then more importantly, into Q2, where the lagged prices really kick in.
Speaker #2: We have a good queue already, and we'll take the first question from Alain. Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alain. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: So any color on that bridge would be very much appreciated. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got a is on Europe. So the industry structure is changing. You have quite a flexibility across your European assets to bring in more funds to the markets should they be needed.
Alain Gabriel: Everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple. On Europe, so the industry structure is changing. You have quite a flexibility across your European assets to bring in more tons to the market, should they be needed. How quickly can you bring these tons online, and what signposts would you look for before making that decision? That's the first question. Thanks.
Alain Gabriel: Everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple. On Europe, so the industry structure is changing. You have quite a flexibility across your European assets to bring in more tons to the market, should they be needed. How quickly can you bring these tons online, and what signposts would you look for before making that decision? That's the first question. Thanks.
Speaker #2: And I missed the first bit of your question, but perhaps Genuino caught it all. So Alain, so let us start with the bridge then, as we typically do.
Speaker #3: How quickly can you bring these funds before making that online, and what time posts would you look for decision? That's the first question. Thanks.
Speaker #2: And I will start with North America, because that's really where we're going to see the big delta "quarter." So as you know, we were experienced operational problems in Mexico that has been now largely resolved.
Speaker #4: Thank What I missed it. online? What was the question?
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Alain. Can you say the last bit? What, what, I missed it. What would we, what do we have to look for before we bring the capacity online? What was the question?
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Alain. Can you say the last bit? What, what, I missed it. What would we, what do we have to look for before we bring the capacity online? What was the question?
Speaker #3: What time posts are you looking for before bringing the What would we have to look for before we bring the capacity new capacity online?
Alain Gabriel: Indeed. What signposts are you looking for before bringing-
Alain Gabriel: Indeed. What signposts are you looking for before bringing-
Speaker #3: How quickly can Indeed. you bring this capacity as well? Thanks.
Speaker #2: So we will volumes in North see a recovery in America. In Q1. As we know, prices have been moved up. So we will also see North America.
Aditya Mittal: Signposts.
Aditya Mittal: Signposts.
Alain Gabriel: The new capacity online?
Alain Gabriel: The new capacity online?
Aditya Mittal: Okay.
Aditya Mittal: Okay.
Alain Gabriel: How quickly can you bring this capacity as well?
Alain Gabriel: How quickly can you bring this capacity as well?
Speaker #4: Fantastic. Thank you, Alain. So yeah, yeah, look, I think clearly the biggest change since I last spoke to you guys has been Europe. TRQ and the CBAM program.
Aditya Mittal: ... Fantastic. Thank you, Alain. So yeah, yeah, and look, I think clearly the biggest change since I last spoke to you guys has been Europe. I won't go through the details of the TRQ and the CBAM program. In terms of your question, we are well positioned at ArcelorMittal because we do have certain idle capacity. We can bring that online quite quickly. It is not subject to re-hire, it is not subject to bringing back people who have been permanently laid off. So we could meet the deadline that is projected. I think the latest estimate remains 1 July for the TRQ to be put in place.
Aditya Mittal: ... Fantastic. Thank you, Alain. So yeah, yeah, and look, I think clearly the biggest change since I last spoke to you guys has been Europe. I won't go through the details of the TRQ and the CBAM program. In terms of your question, we are well positioned at ArcelorMittal because we do have certain idle capacity. We can bring that online quite quickly. It is not subject to re-hire, it is not subject to bringing back people who have been permanently laid off. So we could meet the deadline that is projected. I think the latest estimate remains 1 July for the TRQ to be put in place.
Speaker #4: of your question, we are In terms I won't go through the details of the ArcelorMittal because we do have certain idle capacity. We can bring that online quite quickly.
Speaker #2: Right? So those are really the big two chains that we see in North America. We will be shipping more, and prices will be higher.
Speaker #4: It is not subject to reline. It is not subject to bringing back people who have been permanently the deadline that is projected. I think the laid off.
Speaker #2: We're not going to have the repetition operational costs from Mexican operations. Moving to Europe, in Europe, we will, of course, also see higher shipments, which is, as you know, also to some extent seasonal.
Speaker #4: Estimate remains 1st of July for the TRQ to be put in place—best the latest. Hopefully earlier, but today the latest estimate is 1st of July.
Speaker #2: We will also see prices improving to some extent, but I would say that this is really more a second quarter phenomenon for us. Costs will also be moving up, as we are seeing what is happening on the marketplace with the raw material basket and CO2 costs.
Aditya Mittal: Hopefully earlier, but today, the latest estimate is 1 July, and we'd be able to bring the capacity online in that time frame. What is the capacity, you may ask as a follow-up? We do have the ramp-up of our Sestao mini mill, which is underway. We have a new electric furnace in Gijón, and we do have some spare blast furnace capacity. So it's a combination of the above in terms of idle capacity or available capacity. In terms of signposts, I think signposts are very clear, right? The signpost has to be customer demand, i.e., requirement in the market. We don't want to bring in capacity just for the sake of bringing back capacity. And related to that, and underpinning all of that is earning a healthy and sustainable return on the capital employed in Europe.
Aditya Mittal: Hopefully earlier, but today, the latest estimate is 1 July, and we'd be able to bring the capacity online in that time frame. What is the capacity, you may ask as a follow-up? We do have the ramp-up of our Sestao mini mill, which is underway. We have a new electric furnace in Gijón, and we do have some spare blast furnace capacity. So it's a combination of the above in terms of idle capacity or available capacity. In terms of signposts, I think signposts are very clear, right? The signpost has to be customer demand, i.e., requirement in the market. We don't want to bring in capacity just for the sake of bringing back capacity. And related to that, and underpinning all of that is earning a healthy and sustainable return on the capital employed in Europe.
Speaker #4: And we'd be able to bring the capacity, so we could meet online in that timeframe. What is the capacity, you may ask as a follow-up.
Speaker #4: We do have the ramp-up of our sustained mini underway. We have a new electric furnace in Gihon. And we do have a combination of the mill, which is above.
Speaker #2: Right? Following also the implementation of CBAM. Then Brazil, should be relatively stable. And also our mining division. Should also be relatively stable. We'll continue to ramp So but we up the Liberia.
Speaker #4: In terms of idle capacity or available capacity, in terms of time posts—I think time posts are very clear, right? The time post has to be customer demand, i.e., requirement in the market.
Speaker #4: We don't want to bringing back capacity. And related to that, and underpinning all of that is earning a healthy and sustainable return on the capital employed in Europe.
Speaker #2: will, in terms of shipment, we should be relatively stable "quarter." So your second part of your question was on costs to bring back this capacity.
Speaker #4: So, clearly, we remain focused on meeting customer demand, but at the same time, ensuring that these tons are profitable and achieve our thresholds.
Aditya Mittal: So clearly, we remain focused on meeting customer demand, but at the same time ensuring that these tons are profitable and achieve our return thresholds.
Aditya Mittal: So clearly, we remain focused on meeting customer demand, but at the same time ensuring that these tons are profitable and achieve our return thresholds.
Speaker #2: As I just said, it does not really involve bringing more fixed costs so the costs to restart this capacity will not be something meaningful to your
Speaker #3: Thank you. Thank you very much. And my second question is on the usual profit bridges, Q4 into Q1. Including the impact of the restart costs in Europe.
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. Thank you very much. And my second question is on the usual profit bridges Q4 into Q1, including the impact of the restart costs in Europe, if you decide to bring in some capacity in Q1. And then, more importantly, into Q2, where the lag prices really kick in. So any color on that bridge would be very much appreciated. Thank you.
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. Thank you very much. And my second question is on the usual profit bridges Q4 into Q1, including the impact of the restart costs in Europe, if you decide to bring in some capacity in Q1. And then, more importantly, into Q2, where the lag prices really kick in. So any color on that bridge would be very much appreciated. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thank you. And any hints you can give
Speaker #3: us on Q2, given that bridge. there's a lag effect in both North America and in Europe?
Speaker #3: If you decide to bring in some capacity in Q1, and then more importantly into Q2, where the lagged prices really kick in. So any color on that bridge would be you.
Speaker #3: If you decide to bring in some capacity in Q1, and then more importantly into Q2, where the lagged prices really kick in. So any color on that bridge would be very much appreciated.
Speaker #3: If you decide to bring in some capacity in Q1, and then more importantly into Q2, where the lagged prices really kick in. So any color on that bridge would be very much appreciated.
Speaker #2: Well, I think that's the key point there, really, is in Q2, as we know. I mean, that's always the strongest quarter from a volume point of view in Europe.
Speaker #4: And I missed the first bit of your question, but perhaps Genuino caught it all.
Speaker #2: So I would expect to continue to see that trend. Right? And as we know, we'll see the full impact of the prices that we are seeing in the marketplace right now impacting our future results in Europe and North America, we started to see prices also responding also in Brazil.
Aditya Mittal: I missed the first bit of your question, but perhaps Genuino caught it all. So,
Aditya Mittal: I missed the first bit of your question, but perhaps Genuino caught it all. So,
Speaker #4: So I got
Speaker #2: it. Thank you. So Alain, so let us start with the
Genuino Christino: Yeah, I got it.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, I got it.
Aditya Mittal: Okay.
Aditya Mittal: Okay.
Genuino Christino: I got it, Aditya, thank you. So, Alain, so let's let us start with the bridge then, as we typically do. I will start with North America, because that's really where we're gonna see a big delta quarter-over-quarter. So as you know, we were experience problems in Mexico that has been now largely resolved. So we will see a recovery in volumes in North America in Q1. As we know, prices have been moved up, so we will also see prices increasing in North America, right? So those are really the big two changes that we see in North America. We will be shipping more, and prices will be higher.
Genuino Christino: I got it, Aditya, thank you. So, Alain, so let's let us start with the bridge then, as we typically do. I will start with North America, because that's really where we're gonna see a big delta quarter-over-quarter. So as you know, we were experience problems in Mexico that has been now largely resolved. So we will see a recovery in volumes in North America in Q1. As we know, prices have been moved up, so we will also see prices increasing in North America, right? So those are really the big two changes that we see in North America. We will be shipping more, and prices will be higher.
Speaker #2: Bridge then, as we typically do. And I will start with North America because that's really where we're going to see the big, I think, delta quarter. So as you know, we had operational problems in Mexico that have now been largely resolved.
Speaker #2: That should also improve our realized prices in quarter two as
Speaker #2: well. Thank you.
Speaker #2: So we will see a recovery in volumes. In North America, in Q1, as we know, prices have been moved up. So we increasing in North So those are really the big two chains will also see prices that we see in North America.
Speaker #3: Thank you very much. Thanks, Alain. So we'll move to the next person in the queue, which is Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two: the first is on Europe, decarbonization, as you have now are more visibility on the returns you can make in Europe.
Speaker #4: What are the next steps and the timeline around all the decarbonization projects you previously announced in each country? And if the structural margin level is now higher in Europe, does that mean also that you previous CapEx maximum of 5 billion could potentially be
Genuino Christino: We're not gonna have the repetition of the operational costs in from Mexican operations. Moving to Europe. In Europe, we will, of course, also see higher shipments, which is, as you know, also to some extent, seasonal. We will also see prices improving to some extent, but I would say that this is really more a second quarter phenomenon for us. Costs will also be moving up as we are seeing what is happening on the marketplace with the raw material basket and CO2 costs, right? Following also the implementation of CBAM. Then Brazil should be relatively stable, and also our mining division should also be relatively stable.
Genuino Christino: We're not gonna have the repetition of the operational costs in from Mexican operations. Moving to Europe. In Europe, we will, of course, also see higher shipments, which is, as you know, also to some extent, seasonal. We will also see prices improving to some extent, but I would say that this is really more a second quarter phenomenon for us. Costs will also be moving up as we are seeing what is happening on the marketplace with the raw material basket and CO2 costs, right? Following also the implementation of CBAM. Then Brazil should be relatively stable, and also our mining division should also be relatively stable.
Speaker #2: seasonal. We will also see prices improving to some extent, but I would say that this is really more a second quarter phenomenon for us.
Speaker #4: increased? Thank
Speaker #2: you, Tristan. Yeah. Really, good question. As all of you know, in Europe, from 1st of Jan, the carbon border adjustment mechanism was put in place, which creates a level playing field in terms of carbon costs.
Speaker #2: Costs will also be moving up as we are seeing what is happening on the basket. And CO2 costs, marketplace with the raw material right, following also the implementation of CBAM.
Speaker #2: In terms of decarb, we call it economic decarbonization in our summit. We call it economic decarbonization because it has to make economic sense. What is our plan?
Speaker #2: Then Brazil, should be relatively stable. And also our mining division. Should also be relatively stable. We'll continue to ramp up the Liberia. So but we will, in terms of shipments, we should be So your second part of your question was on capacity.
Speaker #2: Then Brazil, should be relatively stable. And also our mining division. Should also be relatively stable. We'll continue to ramp up the Liberia. So but we will, in terms of shipments, we should be So your second part of your question was on capacity. costs to bring back this does not really involve bringing more As Aditya said, it fixed costs so the costs to restart this capacity will not be something
Speaker #2: We have long talked about we need certain preconditions. To economically decarbonize our footprint in Europe, or in other parts of the we've talked about publicly have been world, some of the conditions that France, we signed a new energy contract with EDF, and at the same time, we wanted a level playing field in terms of carbon costs.
Genuino Christino: We'll continue to ramp up the Liberia, so, but we will, in terms of shipments, we should be relatively stable quarter on quarter. So your second part of your question was on costs to bring back this capacity. As Aditya said, it does not really involve bringing more fixed costs, so the costs to restart this capacity will not be something meaningful to your bridge, Alain.
Genuino Christino: We'll continue to ramp up the Liberia, so, but we will, in terms of shipments, we should be relatively stable quarter on quarter. So your second part of your question was on costs to bring back this capacity. As Aditya said, it does not really involve bringing more fixed costs, so the costs to restart this capacity will not be something meaningful to your bridge, Alain.
Speaker #2: Those conditions have been pre-met or those preconditions have been met. There is an economic case. To decarbonize our operations, and so at this point in time, we are evaluating to decarbonize our French operations, specifically at Dunkirk facility, by setting up an electric arc furnace.
Speaker #3: Q2? Given that there's a lag effect in both North America and in Europe?
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. And any hints you can give us on Q2, given that there's a lag effect in both North America and in Europe?
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. And any hints you can give us on Q2, given that there's a lag effect in both North America and in Europe?
Speaker #2: Well, I think that's the key point there, really, is in Q2, as we know. I mean, that's always the strongest quarter from a volume point of view in Europe.
Speaker #2: It's also in our presentation as future projects. In terms of what will come next, our idea is to be sequential. Taking on multiple projects at the same time, is onerous.
Genuino Christino: Well, I think that's the key point there really is in Q2, as we know, I mean, that's always the strongest quarter from a volume point of view in Europe. So I would expect to continue to see that trend, right? And as we know, we'll see the full impact of the prices that we are seeing in the marketplace right now, impacting our Q2 results in Europe and North America. We started to see prices also responding also in Brazil. So that should also improve our realized prices in Q2 as well.
Genuino Christino: Well, I think that's the key point there really is in Q2, as we know, I mean, that's always the strongest quarter from a volume point of view in Europe. So I would expect to continue to see that trend, right? And as we know, we'll see the full impact of the prices that we are seeing in the marketplace right now, impacting our Q2 results in Europe and North America. We started to see prices also responding also in Brazil. So that should also improve our realized prices in Q2 as well.
Speaker #2: So I would expect right? And as we know, we'll see the full impact of the bridge. the marketplace right now impacting our future results in Europe and North America.
Speaker #2: Both from a people perspective, but also from a capital perspective. And therefore, you should be comfortable with our CapEx guidance of 4 and a half to 5 billion.
Speaker #2: We started to see prices also responding in Brazil. That should also improve our realized prices in Q2 as well.
Speaker #2: On a going forward basis, because yes, we're starting Dunkirk. The intent is to do sequentially, not overburden the organization, both from a people resource or a capital perspective.
Speaker #2: And at the same time, as an underlying and highlighted these are economically attractive decarbonization
Speaker #3: you. Thank you very Thank much.
Speaker #1: Thanks, Alain. So we'll move to the next person in the queue, which is Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan. Please go ahead.
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. Thank you very much.
Alain Gabriel: Thank you. Thank you very much.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Alain. So we'll move to the next person in the queue, which is Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Alain. So we'll move to the next person in the queue, which is Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan, please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Got it. That's
Speaker #4: very clear. Thank you. And the second question is still on Europe, and more on the ETS reform and review. projects. What is your view on the potential extension of the phase-out period for free allowances in Europe?
Speaker #4: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two: the first is on Europe, decarbonization. the returns you can make in Europe, what are the next steps and the timeline around all the decarbonization projects you As you have now are more visibility on previously announced in each country?
Tristan Gresser: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first is on Europe decarbonization. As you have now more visibility on the returns you can make in Europe, what are the next steps and the timeline around all the decarbonization projects you previously announced in each country? And if the structural margin level is now higher in Europe, does that mean also that your previous CapEx maximum of $5 billion could potentially be increased?
Tristan Gresser: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first is on Europe decarbonization. As you have now more visibility on the returns you can make in Europe, what are the next steps and the timeline around all the decarbonization projects you previously announced in each country? And if the structural margin level is now higher in Europe, does that mean also that your previous CapEx maximum of $5 billion could potentially be increased?
Speaker #4: If you are in favor, and what it could change for your business, and how likely do you think as well that the Commission will move forward and extend the deadline past 2034?
Speaker #4: And if that’s in Europe, does that also mean that your previous CapEx maximum of $5 billion could potentially be structural? Is the margin level now higher?
Speaker #2: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Tristan. Look, I talked about this in my quote, in the earnings release, that the biggest change that has happened is in 2025, is the realization that countries around the world need to steel industry.
Speaker #2: Tristan. Yeah. question. As all of you know,
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Tristan. Yeah, really a good question. As all of you know, in Europe, from 1 January, a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was put in place, which creates a level playing field in terms of carbon costs. In terms of decarb, we call it economic decarbonization in ArcelorMittal. We call it economic decarbonization because it has to make economic sense. What is our plan? We have long talked about we need certain preconditions to economically decarbonize our footprint in Europe or in other parts of the world. So the conditions that we've talked about publicly have been energy. As you saw in France, we signed a new energy contract with EDF, and at the same time, we wanted a level playing field in terms of carbon costs.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Tristan. Yeah, really a good question. As all of you know, in Europe, from 1 January, a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was put in place, which creates a level playing field in terms of carbon costs. In terms of decarb, we call it economic decarbonization in ArcelorMittal. We call it economic decarbonization because it has to make economic sense. What is our plan? We have long talked about we need certain preconditions to economically decarbonize our footprint in Europe or in other parts of the world. So the conditions that we've talked about publicly have been energy. As you saw in France, we signed a new energy contract with EDF, and at the same time, we wanted a level playing field in terms of carbon costs.
Speaker #2: Really, good What is our plan? We have long talked about we need certain preconditions. To economically decarbonize our footprint in Europe, or in other parts of the publicly have been energy, as world, some of the conditions that we've talked about you saw in France, we signed a new energy contract with playing field in terms of carbon increased?
Speaker #2: It's about supply resilience. It's about national security. And we see increasing action to support the domestic steel industry, whether it's through trade or other actions.
Speaker #2: in place, which creates a level playing field in terms of carbon costs. In terms of decarb, we call Sormito. We call it economic decarbonization because it has to make economic sense.
Speaker #2: I see the same dynamic in Europe. Right? That's the fundamental shift that has occurred. In 2025. So there is support that's coming through the TRQ.
Speaker #2: There's support that's coming through the CBAN. But I also see a fundamental rethink that Europe cannot deindustrialize but needs to retain and support its strategic industries.
Speaker #2: So I would take the ETS review in that context, because that should reflect that new dynamic. And the ETS review dynamic. What is our summit's focus area in that new dynamic or in the ETS review?
Speaker #2: Costs. Those conditions have been pre-met, or those preconditions have been met. There is an economic case to decarbonize our operations, and so at this point in time, we are evaluating to decarbonize our French operations, specifically at the Dunkirk facility, by setting up an electric arc furnace.
Aditya Mittal: Those conditions have been pre-met, or those preconditions have been met. There is an economic case to decarbonize our operations. And so at this point in time, we're evaluating to decarbonize our French operations, specifically our Dunkirk facility, by setting up an electric arc furnace. It's also in our presentation as future projects. In terms of what will come next, our idea is to be sequential. Taking on multiple projects at the same time is onerous both from a people perspective, but also from a capital perspective. And therefore, you should be comfortable with our CapEx guidance of $4.5 to 5 billion on a going-forward basis. Because, yes, we're starting Dunkirk. The intent is to do sequentially, not overburden the organization, both from a people resource or a capital perspective.
Aditya Mittal: Those conditions have been pre-met, or those preconditions have been met. There is an economic case to decarbonize our operations. And so at this point in time, we're evaluating to decarbonize our French operations, specifically our Dunkirk facility, by setting up an electric arc furnace. It's also in our presentation as future projects. In terms of what will come next, our idea is to be sequential. Taking on multiple projects at the same time is onerous both from a people perspective, but also from a capital perspective. And therefore, you should be comfortable with our CapEx guidance of $4.5 to 5 billion on a going-forward basis. Because, yes, we're starting Dunkirk. The intent is to do sequentially, not overburden the organization, both from a people resource or a capital perspective.
Speaker #2: Is to highlight that today, energy costs in Europe remain very high relative to the global averages. Gas prices remain very high relative to what is available globally.
Speaker #2: It's also in our presentation as future projects. In terms of what will come next, our idea is to be sequential. Taking on multiple projects at the same time, is perspective.
Speaker #2: And at the same companies around the world or other countries are doing in terms of decarbonizing their time, when you look at what other steel much slower.
Speaker #2: Right? The steel industry is not able to adapt at the rate or slash pace that the ETS system is currently designed to do that.
Speaker #2: And therefore, you should be comfortable with our CapEx guidance of 4 and a half to 5 billion. On a going forward basis, because yes, we're starting onerous.
Speaker #2: And so I do believe that we need to the ETS system needs to adapt to reflect these realities. To the extent that it does not adapt to reflect these realities, at the end of the day, the CBAN is in place.
Speaker #2: Dunkirk. The intent is to do it sequentially—not overburden the organization, both from a people resource or a capital perspective. Both from a people. And at the same time, as an underlying and highlighted, these are economically attractive decarbonization projects.
Speaker #2: Right? We have a carbon border adjustment mechanism. To the extent that we incur carbon costs, the same is incurred by imported tons. And so there is a level playing field.
Aditya Mittal: At the same time, as I underlined and highlighted, these are economically attractive decarbonization projects.
Aditya Mittal: At the same time, as I underlined and highlighted, these are economically attractive decarbonization projects.
Speaker #4: Right. That's very clear. Thank you. And the second question is still on Europe, and more on the ETS reform and review. What is your view on the phase-out period for free allowances in Europe?
Speaker #2: And so I hope that provides a perspective on our
Speaker #2: And so I hope that provides a perspective on our thinking. And
Tristan Gresser: Right. That's, that's very clear. Thank you. And the second question is still on Europe, and more on the ETS reform and review. What is your view on the potential extension of the phase out period for free allowances in Europe, if you are in favor, and what it could change for your business? And how likely do you think as well, that the commission will move forward and extend the deadline past 2034?
Tristan Gresser: Right. That's, that's very clear. Thank you. And the second question is still on Europe, and more on the ETS reform and review. What is your view on the potential extension of the phase out period for free allowances in Europe, if you are in favor, and what it could change for your business? And how likely do you think as well, that the commission will move forward and extend the deadline past 2034?
Speaker #4: it's very clear. Thank
Speaker #4: you.
Speaker #2: Thank
Speaker #3: Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll you. move to take the next question. Which will take from Ephrem at Citigroup. Hi, Ephrem. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: If you are in favor, and what it could change for your business, and how likely do you think as well that the Commission will move forward on the potential extension of the deadline past
Speaker #4: If you are in favor, and what it could change for your business, and how likely do you think as well that the Commission will move forward on the potential extension of the deadline past 2034?
Speaker #5: Thanks. Just three non-European questions for a change. Firstly, on the page 12 of the presentation, when you say further expansion, at Hazira, understudy, just to clarify, is that to the 15 to 24 million tons that you've already decade?
Speaker #2: Yeah.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Thank you, Tristan. Look, I talked about this in my quote. In the earnings release, the happened is in and extend the biggest change that has 2025, is a realization that countries around the world need the steel industry.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Tristan. Look, I, I talked about this in my, quote, in the earnings release, that the biggest change that has happened is, in 2025, is a realization that, countries around the world, need the steel industry. It's about supply resilience, it's about national security, and we see increasing action, to support the domestic steel industry, whether it's through trade or other actions. I, I see the same dynamic in Europe, right? That's the fundamental shift that has occurred, in 2025. So there is support that's coming through the TRQ, there's support that's coming through the CBAM, but I also see a fundamental rethink that Europe cannot deindustrialize, but, needs to retain and support its strategic industries.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Tristan. Look, I, I talked about this in my, quote, in the earnings release, that the biggest change that has happened is, in 2025, is a realization that, countries around the world, need the steel industry. It's about supply resilience, it's about national security, and we see increasing action, to support the domestic steel industry, whether it's through trade or other actions. I, I see the same dynamic in Europe, right? That's the fundamental shift that has occurred, in 2025. So there is support that's coming through the TRQ, there's support that's coming through the CBAM, but I also see a fundamental rethink that Europe cannot deindustrialize, but, needs to retain and support its strategic industries.
Speaker #5: Or is it to beyond 24 million
Speaker #2: Thank you,
Speaker #2: Ephrem, for the question. I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to, but let me talk about what's happening in tons? Hazira. So this will provide a broader context, and I hope it answers the question.
Speaker #2: It's about supply resilience. It's about national security. And we see increasing action to support the domestic steel industry, whether it's through trade or other actions.
Speaker #2: So just starting with a macro, India remains a growth market. Right? Demand continues to grow at 6 to 8 excellent facility with excellent products, excellent quality, excellent people.
Speaker #2: I see the same dynamic in Europe, right? That's the fundamental shift that has occurred—in 2025. So, there is support that's coming through the TRQ.
Speaker #2: There's support that's coming through the CBAN. But I also see a fundamental rethink that Europe cannot deindustrialize but needs to retain and support I would take the ETS its strategic industries.
Speaker #2: And we have that. Today, our current capacity is about 9 million a very strong platform to grow tons, in Hazira. finishing our expansion which will start up towards the end of the year, but will really be completed in 2027, where we will achieve a targeted capacity or design capacity of 15 million tons in the Hazira facility.
Speaker #2: review in that context, So because that is the new dynamic and the ETS review should reflect that new dynamic. What is review? Is to highlight that ArcelorMittal's focus area in that new today, energy costs in Europe remain very high relative to the prices remain very high relative to what is available globally.
Aditya Mittal: So I would take the ETS review in that context, because that is the new dynamic, and the ETS review should reflect that new dynamic. What is ArcelorMittal's focus area in that new dynamic or the ETS review? Is to highlight that today, energy costs in Europe remain very high relative to the global averages. Gas prices remain very high relative to what is available globally. And at the same time, when you look at what other steel companies around the world or other countries are doing in terms of decarbonizing their steel business, the pace is much slower, right? The steel industry is not able to adapt at the rate or slash pace that the ETS system is currently designed to do that. And so I do believe that we need to...
Aditya Mittal: So I would take the ETS review in that context, because that is the new dynamic, and the ETS review should reflect that new dynamic. What is ArcelorMittal's focus area in that new dynamic or the ETS review? Is to highlight that today, energy costs in Europe remain very high relative to the global averages. Gas prices remain very high relative to what is available globally. And at the same time, when you look at what other steel companies around the world or other countries are doing in terms of decarbonizing their steel business, the pace is much slower, right? The steel industry is not able to adapt at the rate or slash pace that the ETS system is currently designed to do that. And so I do believe that we need to...
Speaker #2: We're actively working on an additional greenfield facility we have not announced what the capacity level would be, but safe to assume it will be about 8 million tons.
Speaker #2: And at the same time, when you look dynamic or in the ETS at what other steel companies around the world or other countries are doing in terms of decarbonizing their steel business, the pace is much slower.
Speaker #2: On the And we are eastern coast of India in Rajapitha. So that remains an option. And as we environmental clearance, land make progress on finalizing acquisition, virtual integration in terms of iron ore, we will be updating the market.
Speaker #2: Right? The at-the-rate or slash pace that the ETS system is currently designed to do that. And so I do believe that we need to—the ETS system needs to adapt to reflect these—the steel industry is not able to adapt to these realities.
Speaker #2: Fundamentally, the vision is to grow the business and to achieve a design capacity in excess of 40 million tons in the
Speaker #2: term. Thanks.
Aditya Mittal: that the ETS system needs to adapt to reflect these realities. To the extent that it does not adapt to reflect these realities, at the end of the day, the CBAM is in place, right? We have a carbon border adjustment mechanism. To the extent that we incur carbon costs, the same is incurred by imported tons, and so there is a level playing field. And so I hope that provides a perspective on our thinking.
Aditya Mittal: that the ETS system needs to adapt to reflect these realities. To the extent that it does not adapt to reflect these realities, at the end of the day, the CBAM is in place, right? We have a carbon border adjustment mechanism. To the extent that we incur carbon costs, the same is incurred by imported tons, and so there is a level playing field. And so I hope that provides a perspective on our thinking.
Speaker #5: So are news reports that CSN is considering selling its steelmaking. I don't want you to comment on M&A specifically, but do you think your capped out in Brazil from an acquisition perspective given your high market share already?
Speaker #2: To the extent that it does not adapt to reflect these realities, at the end of the day, the CBAM is in place. Right? We have a carbon border adjustment mechanism.
Speaker #5: There
Speaker #2: To the extent that we incur carbon costs, the same tons, and so there is a level playing field. And so I hope that is incurred by imported—provides a perspective on our thinking.
Speaker #2: So in Brazil, we have
Speaker #2: an excellent business. As you know, we have two very quickly, switching to Brazil.
Speaker #4: No, that's very clear.
Speaker #2: facilities. Tubarão and Pessen. Two big picture points on Brazil. We're working with the government to further support the steel industry in terms of trade measures.
Tristan Gresser: That is, very clear. Thank you.
Tristan Gresser: That is, very clear. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Great.
Speaker #1: Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move to take the next question, which will take 'Thank you' from Ephraim at Citigroup. Hi, Ephraim. Please go ahead.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move to take the next question, which we'll take from Ephrem at Citi. Hi, Ephrem. Please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move to take the next question, which we'll take from Ephrem at Citi. Hi, Ephrem. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: So front. But simultaneously, we're growing there is progress on that our franchise. Right? We just completed the Vega facility which is automotive galvanizing capacity.
Speaker #3: Non-European questions for a change. Firstly, on page 12 of the presentation, when you say 'further expansion at Hazira under study,' just to clarify, is that in addition to the 15 to 24 million tons that you already planned and guided to by end of the decade?
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. Just three non-European questions, for a change. Firstly, on page 12 of the presentation, when you say further expansion at Hazira under study, just to clarify, is that to the 15 to 24 million tons that you already planned and guided to by end of the decade, or is it to beyond 24 million tons?
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. Just three non-European questions, for a change. Firstly, on page 12 of the presentation, when you say further expansion at Hazira under study, just to clarify, is that to the 15 to 24 million tons that you already planned and guided to by end of the decade, or is it to beyond 24 million tons?
Speaker #2: In the presentation, you can see that we're evaluating further downstream capability in Tubarão. We have certain mining projects which have come on stream in Brazil.
Speaker #3: Or is it to beyond 24 million
Speaker #2: Namely, Serra Azul. We have investments in the long business. So we're very comfortable with the business that we have. We have like in other parts of the world, an excellent set of assets with excellent people and really are the market leader in terms of product quality, product capability, as well as what we offer the market in terms of innovation, design, service, etc.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Ephraim, for the referring to, but let me talk about what's happening in Hazira. So this will provide a broader tons? context, and I hope it answers the macro, India remains a growth market, right?
Speaker #2: question. I'm not exactly sure what you're
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Ephrem, for the question. I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to, but let me talk about what's happening in Hazira. So this will provide a broader context, and I hope it answers the question. Just starting with the macro, India remains a growth market, right? Demand continues to grow at 6 to 8%. We have an excellent facility with excellent products, excellent quality, excellent people, and we have a very strong platform to grow that. Today, our current capacity is about 9 million tons in Hazira, and we are finishing our expansion, which will start up towards the end of the year, but will really be completed in 2027, where we will achieve a targeted capacity or design capacity of 15 million tons in the Hazira facility.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you, Ephrem, for the question. I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to, but let me talk about what's happening in Hazira. So this will provide a broader context, and I hope it answers the question. Just starting with the macro, India remains a growth market, right? Demand continues to grow at 6 to 8%. We have an excellent facility with excellent products, excellent quality, excellent people, and we have a very strong platform to grow that. Today, our current capacity is about 9 million tons in Hazira, and we are finishing our expansion, which will start up towards the end of the year, but will really be completed in 2027, where we will achieve a targeted capacity or design capacity of 15 million tons in the Hazira facility.
Speaker #2: Demand continues to grow at 6 to 8 percent. We have an excellent facility with excellent products, excellent quality, strong platform to grow that. Today, our current excellent people.
Speaker #5: Thanks. And then finally, on your furnace number Calvert, you're ramping up one and it will be done pretty much in six months, I think.
Speaker #2: capacity is about 9 million tons, in Hazira. And we question. are finishing our So just starting with a And we have a very expansion which will start up towards the end of the year, 2027, where we will but we'll really be completed in achieve a targeted capacity or design capacity of 15 million tons in the Hazira facility.
Speaker #5: Given kind of the challenges of mobilizing another team for the next phase of expansion there, when do you think is a
Speaker #5: EAF? Yeah.
Speaker #2: Ephrem, it's a great question. I don't expect it to be immediate in terms of of phenomena. I can't give you a specific timeline. I expect this to be in the short term.
Speaker #2: We're actively working on an additional greenfield facility. We have not announced what the capacity level would be, but it's safe to assume it will be about 8 million tons.
Aditya Mittal: We're actively working on an additional greenfield facility. We have not announced what the capacity level would be, but safe to assume it will be about 8 million tons on the eastern coast of India in Kendrapara. So that remains an option, and as we make progress on finalizing environmental clearance, land acquisition, virtual integration in terms of iron ore, we will be updating the market. Fundamentally, the vision is to grow the business, and to achieve a design capacity in excess of 40 million tons in the long term.
Aditya Mittal: We're actively working on an additional greenfield facility. We have not announced what the capacity level would be, but safe to assume it will be about 8 million tons on the eastern coast of India in Kendrapara. So that remains an option, and as we make progress on finalizing environmental clearance, land acquisition, virtual integration in terms of iron ore, we will be updating the market. Fundamentally, the vision is to grow the business, and to achieve a design capacity in excess of 40 million tons in the long term.
Speaker #2: We had put it in our presentation we have further organic growth plans. Calvert, spoke about in terms of Dunkerque, as well as what I just Brazil.
Speaker #2: On the eastern coast of India in Rajapitha. So that remains an option. And as we make progress on finalizing environmental clearance, land acquisition, virtual integration in terms of iron ore, we will be updating the market.
Speaker #2: We're also building up our electrical fuel facility in Calvert, as you are aware. So we have completed the EAF, but we have another facility
Speaker #2: ongoing and we have plans to double our EAF realistic timeframe for approving the second capacity. So that is an update that I can Genuino can provide more of an update.
Speaker #2: ongoing and we have plans to double our EAF realistic timeframe for approving the second capacity. So that is an update that I can Genuino can provide more of an
Speaker #2: Fundamentally, the vision is to grow the business and to achieve a design capacity in excess of 40 million tons in the long term.
Speaker #2: I don't know if
Speaker #2: term. Thanks.
Speaker #3: So, very quickly—reports that CSN is considering selling its steelmaking. I don't want you to comment on switching to Brazil. There are news on M&A specifically, but do you think you’re capped out in Brazil from an acquisition perspective, given your high market share?
Speaker #3: No, I think
Speaker #3: that's a summary, Adita. And we will have to wait and see when we provide.
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. So, very quickly switching to Brazil, there are news reports that CSN is considering selling its steelmaking. I don't want you to comment on M&A specifically, but do you think you are capped out in Brazil from an acquisition perspective, given your high market share already?
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. So, very quickly switching to Brazil, there are news reports that CSN is considering selling its steelmaking. I don't want you to comment on M&A specifically, but do you think you are capped out in Brazil from an acquisition perspective, given your high market share already?
Speaker #3: announce the next
Speaker #3: steps. Thanks.
Speaker #5: That's it from
Speaker #5: me. Great.
Speaker #3: already? So in
Speaker #3: Thanks, Ephrem. So we'll move now to take a question from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole. Please go
Speaker #2: Brazil, we have an excellent business. As you know, we have two facilities: Tubarão and Pessen. Two big picture points on Brazil. We're working with the government to further support the steel industry in terms of trade measures.
Aditya Mittal: So in Brazil, we have an excellent business. As you know, we have two facilities, Tubarão and Pecém. Two big picture points on Brazil. We're working with the government to further support the steel industry in terms of trade measures, so there is progress on that front. But simultaneously, we're growing our franchise, right? We just completed the Vega facility, which is automotive galvanizing capacity. In the presentation, you can see that we're evaluating a further downstream capability in Tubarão. We have set of mining projects which have come on stream in Brazil, namely Serra Azul. We have investments in the long business. So we are very comfortable with the business that we have.
Aditya Mittal: So in Brazil, we have an excellent business. As you know, we have two facilities, Tubarão and Pecém. Two big picture points on Brazil. We're working with the government to further support the steel industry in terms of trade measures, so there is progress on that front. But simultaneously, we're growing our franchise, right? We just completed the Vega facility, which is automotive galvanizing capacity. In the presentation, you can see that we're evaluating a further downstream capability in Tubarão. We have set of mining projects which have come on stream in Brazil, namely Serra Azul. We have investments in the long business. So we are very comfortable with the business that we have.
Speaker #3: ahead. Afternoon.
Speaker #4: Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on Europe and the impact of the import quotas and how you're thinking about ramping up your capacity.
Speaker #2: So, there is progress on that front. But simultaneously, we're growing our automotive franchise, right? We just completed the Vega facility, which is automotive galvanizing capacity.
Speaker #4: It's very difficult from the outside in to kind of put some shipment numbers to that. If we think that 10 million tons of imports are going to be displaced and ramped up in Europe, how do you think about how much metall can ramp up to meet those needs?
Speaker #2: In the presentation, you can see that we're evaluating a further downstream capability in Tubarão. We have certain mining projects which have come on stream in Brazil.
Speaker #4: Should we think about it as kind of three to four million tons kind of keeping your market share? And when you talked about being able to ramp up initially, some idle capacity, do you have an idea in mind?
Speaker #2: Namely, Serra Azul. We have investments in the long business. So we are very comfortable with the business that we have. We have like in other parts of the world, an excellent set of assets with excellent people and really are the market leader in terms of product quality, as what we offer the market in terms of innovation, design, service, etc.
Aditya Mittal: We have, like in other parts of the world, an excellent set of assets with excellent people and really are the market leader in terms of product quality, product capability, as well as what we offer the market in terms of innovation, design, service, et cetera.
Aditya Mittal: We have, like in other parts of the world, an excellent set of assets with excellent people and really are the market leader in terms of product quality, product capability, as well as what we offer the market in terms of innovation, design, service, et cetera.
Speaker #4: We can ramp up 2 million of that 3 million tons and then we'll need to put some more CapEx into that. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Yeah. Thank you for the question. I'll get Genuino to answer it. But just to maintain our market share, which is our intent, there's not that much significant CapEx that's required.
Speaker #3: Thanks. And then finally, on Calvert, you're ramping up your it will be done pretty much in six months, I think. Given kind of the challenges of mobilizing another team for the next phase of expansion there, when do you think is a realistic timeframe for approving the second
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. And then-
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. And then-
Aditya Mittal: Yeah.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah.
Ephrem Ravi: Finally, on Calvert. You're ramping up your furnace number one, and it'll be done pretty much in six months, I think. Given kind of the challenges of mobilizing another team for the next phase of expansion there, when do you think is a realistic timeframe for approving the second EAF?
Ephrem Ravi: Finally, on Calvert. You're ramping up your furnace number one, and it'll be done pretty much in six months, I think. Given kind of the challenges of mobilizing another team for the next phase of expansion there, when do you think is a realistic timeframe for approving the second EAF?
Speaker #2: earlier. So we do have idle capacity. We can Right? We spoke about that bring it online, to achieve the market growth. It's not a market share fight.
Speaker #3: EAF? Yeah.
Speaker #2: Right? It's to achieve market share growth based on customer demand. Genuino?
Speaker #2: Ephraim, it's a great question. I don't expect it to be immediate-term phenomena. I can't give you a specific timeline. I expect this to be in the short term.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I think you got the numbers right. Right? So we are talking about 10 million tons of reduction of the imports, about 8 million is for flat products.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Ephraim, it's a great, a great question. I, I don't expect it to be immediate term phenomena. I, I can't give you a specific timeline. I expect this to be in the short term. We have put it in our presentation. We have further organic growth plans, Calvert, Dunkirk, as well as what I just spoke about in terms of Brazil. We, we're also building up our electrical steel facility in Calvert, as you are aware. So we have completed the EF, but we have another facility ongoing, and we have plans to double our EF capacity. So that is, that is a update that I can provide. I don't know if, Janrino can provide, more of an update.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Ephraim, it's a great, a great question. I, I don't expect it to be immediate term phenomena. I, I can't give you a specific timeline. I expect this to be in the short term. We have put it in our presentation. We have further organic growth plans, Calvert, Dunkirk, as well as what I just spoke about in terms of Brazil. We, we're also building up our electrical steel facility in Calvert, as you are aware. So we have completed the EF, but we have another facility ongoing, and we have plans to double our EF capacity. So that is, that is a update that I can provide. I don't know if, Janrino can provide, more of an update.
Speaker #2: We have put it in our presentation we have further organic growth plans. Calvert, Dunkirk, as well as what I just spoke about in terms of Brazil.
Speaker #3: Right? We talked about in the previous quarter our market share against the domestic supply of about 30%. So I think you got the numbers right.
Speaker #2: We're also building up our electrical fuel facility in Calvert, as you are aware. So we have completed the EAF, but we have plans to double our EAF capacity.
Speaker #3: And as you know, this is going to happen we're going to see really the full impact of that in 2027 because, as Adita mentioned, our best guess today is to have the new TRQ from first of July.
Speaker #2: So that is an update that I can provide. I don't know if Genuino can provide more of an update.
Speaker #3: So we are already working on some of these tools, furnaces, be it force or Poland. So I think we're going to be in a good position to meet the demand.
Speaker #1: No, I think that's a fair summary, Adita. And we will have to wait and see when we announce the next steps.
Genuino Christino: No, I think, I think that's a fair summary, Aditya, and we will have to wait and see when we announce the next steps.
Genuino Christino: No, I think, I think that's a fair summary, Aditya, and we will have to wait and see when we announce the next steps.
Speaker #3: And I think that's really important for us to be able to service the customers when they need us. And that is our focus. So I would not expect to add more CapEx.
Speaker #3: Thanks. That's it from
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. That's it for me.
Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. That's it for me.
Speaker #1: Ephraim. So we'll move now to take a question Great. Thanks, from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole. Please go
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Ephraim. So we'll move now to take a question from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Ephraim. So we'll move now to take a question from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole, please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on Europe and the impact of the import quotas and how you're thinking about ramping up your capacity.
Speaker #3: You have our guidance. So we have provided the guidance of 4.55 billion. Right? And it's all included in that. So I would not, at this point, conclude that there is more CapEx to come to be able to bring this extra capacity that we are talking
Cole Hathorn: Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on Europe and the impact of the import quotas and how you're thinking about ramping up your your capacity. It's very difficult from the outside in to kind of put some shipment numbers to that. If we think that 10 million tons of imports are going to be displaced and ramped up in Europe, how do you think about how much Mittal can ramp up to meet those needs? Should we think about it as kind of 3 to 4 million tons, kind of keeping your market share? And when you talked about being able to ramp up initially some idle capacity, do you have a an idea in mind?
Cole Hathorn: Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on Europe and the impact of the import quotas and how you're thinking about ramping up your your capacity. It's very difficult from the outside in to kind of put some shipment numbers to that. If we think that 10 million tons of imports are going to be displaced and ramped up in Europe, how do you think about how much Mittal can ramp up to meet those needs? Should we think about it as kind of 3 to 4 million tons, kind of keeping your market share? And when you talked about being able to ramp up initially some idle capacity, do you have a an idea in mind?
Speaker #4: It's very difficult from the outside in to kind of put some shipment numbers to that. If we think that 10 million tons of imports are going to be displaced and ramped up in Europe, how do you think about how much metall can ramp up to meet those needs?
Speaker #3: about. And then maybe
Speaker #4: just as a follow-up on that, to a last question, what is the trigger to start kind of ramping some of your idle capacity or improving the operating rate?
Speaker #4: Should we think about it as kind of three to four million tons kind of keeping your market talked about being able to ramp up me.
Speaker #4: Do you really need to start seeing the demand and pricing as the trigger to start building some inventories? And Europe for a long time has benefited from having I would say quite short supply adapt to longer order books or longer supply chains, which I imagine would be good for metall?
Speaker #4: capacity, do you have an idea in mind? We can ramp up 2 million of that 3 share? And when you you.
Cole Hathorn: You know, we can ramp up, you know, 2 million of that 3 million tons, and then we'll, we'll need to put some more CapEx into that. Thank you.
Cole Hathorn: You know, we can ramp up, you know, 2 million of that 3 million tons, and then we'll, we'll need to put some more CapEx into that. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Yeah. Thank you for the question. I'll get Genuino to answer it. But just to maintain our market share, which is our intent, there's not that much significant CAPEX that's required, have idle capacity.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you for the question. I'll get Genuino to answer it. But just to maintain our market share, which is our intent, there's not that much significant CapEx that's required, right? We spoke about that earlier. So we do have idle capacity. We can bring it online to achieve the market growth. It's not a market share fight, right? It's to achieve market share growth based on customer demand. Genuino?
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you for the question. I'll get Genuino to answer it. But just to maintain our market share, which is our intent, there's not that much significant CapEx that's required, right? We spoke about that earlier. So we do have idle capacity. We can bring it online to achieve the market growth. It's not a market share fight, right? It's to achieve market share growth based on customer demand. Genuino?
Speaker #3: Yeah. Well, I think look, this is not really a fight for market share. Right? So I think we are we want to be ready when we see that demand.
Speaker #3: Right? And so we're not going to be increasing capacity or just for the sake of doing it. I think Adita mentioned it at the beginning of the call.
Speaker #2: We can bring it online, to achieve the market growth. It's It's to achieve market share growth based on customer demand. Genuino?
Speaker #3: Our focus is on making sure that as we bring back this capacity that it's that it makes sense. Also, from an economic point of view, that we earn our cost of capital.
Speaker #1: Yeah. I think you got the numbers right, right? So we are talking about 10 million tons of reduction
Genuino Christino: Yeah. But I think only you got the numbers right, right? So we are talking about 10 million tons of reduction of the imports. About 8 million is for flat products, right? We talked about in the previous quarter, our market share against the domestic supply, about 30%. So I think you got the numbers right. And as you know, this is going to happen. We're gonna see really the full impact of that in 2027, because as Aditya mentioned, our best yesterday is to have the new TRQ from 1 July. So we are already working on some of these tools, furnaces, be it Fos-sur-Mer or Poland.
Genuino Christino: Yeah. But I think only you got the numbers right, right? So we are talking about 10 million tons of reduction of the imports. About 8 million is for flat products, right? We talked about in the previous quarter, our market share against the domestic supply, about 30%. So I think you got the numbers right. And as you know, this is going to happen. We're gonna see really the full impact of that in 2027, because as Aditya mentioned, our best yesterday is to have the new TRQ from 1 July. So we are already working on some of these tools, furnaces, be it Fos-sur-Mer or Poland.
Speaker #3: And I think that is our focus. Adita, do you want to add to that?
Speaker #1: Million. It's for flat products, right? We talked about in the previous quarter our against-the-market share, 30%. So I think you got the numbers right.
Speaker #2: Yeah. I feel that you answered the question very answer in the question the order book. I think the order book determines when we bring on this capacity.
Speaker #1: And as you know, this is going to happen we're going to see a domestic supply of about really full impact of that in 2027 because, as Adita mentioned, our best guess today is to have not a market share fight, right?
Speaker #2: We don't have that much of long lead time in bringing on some of this capacity. Also recognize that we have a lot of slack capacity in Brazil.
Speaker #1: the new TRQ July. from 1st of are already working on some of these tools, furnaces. V84s or Poland, so I think we're going to be in a good to meet the demand.
Speaker #2: with slacks from Brazil. So there is So we, again, augment our facilities flexibility in building our operations, and we will examine the order book and based on that, we will plan our production
Speaker #2: cycles. Perfect.
Speaker #4: Thank
Speaker #4: you. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Great.
Speaker #3: Thanks. Thanks, Cole. So we will move to take the next question from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt. Please go
Speaker #1: position And I think that's really important for us to be able to service the customers when they need us. And that is our focus.
Genuino Christino: So I think we're gonna be in a good position to meet the demand. And I think that's really important for us to be able to service the customers when they need us, and that is our focus. So I would not expect to add more CapEx. You have our guidance, so we have provided the guidance of $4.5 to 5 billion, right? And it's all included in that. So I would not, at this point, conclude that there is more CapEx to come to be able to bring this extra capacity that we are talking about.
Genuino Christino: So I think we're gonna be in a good position to meet the demand. And I think that's really important for us to be able to service the customers when they need us, and that is our focus. So I would not expect to add more CapEx. You have our guidance, so we have provided the guidance of $4.5 to 5 billion, right? And it's all included in that. So I would not, at this point, conclude that there is more CapEx to come to be able to bring this extra capacity that we are talking about.
Speaker #3: ahead. Hi there.
Speaker #5: Afternoon, Adita. Genuino, thank you for taking my question. First one, I just want to check on the dividend increase. Quite a substantial increase, I guess.
Speaker #1: So I would not expect to add more CAPEX. You have our guidance. So we have provided the guidance of 4.55 billion, right? And it's all included in that.
Speaker #5: This year and over the last five. It does seem like the buyback pace has slowed very slightly. Should we read this as maybe a mixed shift in how you're returning capital to shareholders?
Speaker #1: So I would not, at this point, conclude that there is more CAPEX to come to be able to bring this extra capacity that we are talking about.
Speaker #5: Or should we read this as an increase in the absolute level of payback in the
Speaker #5: dividend? Yeah.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Reinhardt. I'll get Genuino to answer it specifically. I'll provide more details. But just at a high level, there is no change to our capital allocation framework.
Speaker #4: just as a follow-up on that, to a last question, what is the ramping some of your And then maybe you really need to start seeing the demand and pricing as the trigger to start trigger to start kind of has benefited from having I would say quite short supply chains.
Cole Hathorn: And then maybe just as a follow-up on that, you know, to Alain's question, what is the—what's the trigger to start kind of ramping some of your idle capacity or improving the operating rate? Do you really need to start seeing the demand and pricing as the trigger to start building some inventories? And, you know, Europe for a long time has benefited from having, I would say, quite short supply chains. Do you know, do customers need to adapt to, you know, longer order books or longer supply chains, which I imagine would be good for Mittal?
Cole Hathorn: And then maybe just as a follow-up on that, you know, to Alain's question, what is the—what's the trigger to start kind of ramping some of your idle capacity or improving the operating rate? Do you really need to start seeing the demand and pricing as the trigger to start building some inventories? And, you know, Europe for a long time has benefited from having, I would say, quite short supply chains. Do you know, do customers need to adapt to, you know, longer order books or longer supply chains, which I imagine would be good for Mittal?
Speaker #2: Right? We think it has really served the company and its stakeholders really well. The framework remains 50% of free cash flow returned to shareholders and 50% in terms of growth.
Speaker #2: We talked a lot about our growth portfolio and our opening remarks. You can see how well that is doing. We have not really used up much of the balance sheet.
Speaker #4: Do you know, do customers need to adapt to longer building some inventories? order books or longer supply chains, which I imagine would be good for
Speaker #2: And yet we are delivering significant earnings enhancement, both in 2025 but also going forward. In terms of returns to shareholders, if you see the share buyback program has been very we have in the underlying operating business and what we're seeing from a macro successful.
Speaker #4: metall? Yeah.
Speaker #1: Well, I think, look, this is not really a fight for market share, right? So I think we are we want to be ready Be .
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Well, I think, look, this is not really a fight for, for market share, right? So I think we, we are, we want to be ready, when we see that demand, right? And so we're not gonna be increasing capacity or, just for the sake of doing it. I think I need to mention it at the beginning of the call. Our focus is on make sure that as we bring back this capacity, that it's, that it makes sense also, from an economic point of view, that we earn our cost of capital. And I think that is our, that is our focus. Aditya, do you wanna add to that?
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Well, I think, look, this is not really a fight for, for market share, right? So I think we, we are, we want to be ready, when we see that demand, right? And so we're not gonna be increasing capacity or, just for the sake of doing it. I think I need to mention it at the beginning of the call. Our focus is on make sure that as we bring back this capacity, that it's, that it makes sense also, from an economic point of view, that we earn our cost of capital. And I think that is our, that is our focus. Aditya, do you wanna add to that?
Speaker #1: see When we demand . Right . And not going to be increasing capacity or sake of just for the doing it . I think I did mention the it at call is focus .
Speaker #2: perspective, we're very comfortable in increasing the dividend this And because of the confidence that quarter. To 60 cents. With that, Genuino, please go
Speaker #1: of the that the sake of doing it . I mentioned it at the think I of the call on making . sure is that as we back this bring capacity sense .
Speaker #2: ahead. Yeah.
Speaker #3: I think you touched on the key aspects, Adita. I think we did well in 2025. So we did more than the minimum according to our policy.
Speaker #1: focus
Speaker #1: that Also that it economic makes view , that earn or point of cost of is capital . that is our that we
Speaker #3: And I think that's really the key message for everybody is the policy has been working extremely well. I think we are very pleased with the outcome of the policy based on our interaction with shareholders as well.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. I feel that you answered the question very well, Genuino, but there's also an answer in the question. The order book. I think the order book determines when we bring on this capacity. We don't have that much of long lead time in bringing on some of this capacity. Also recognize that we have a lot of slab capacity in Brazil, so we can augment our facilities with slabs from Brazil. So there is flexibility built in our operations, and we will examine the order book, and based on that, we will plan our production cycles.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. I feel that you answered the question very well, Genuino, but there's also an answer in the question. The order book. I think the order book determines when we bring on this capacity. We don't have that much of long lead time in bringing on some of this capacity. Also recognize that we have a lot of slab capacity in Brazil, so we can augment our facilities with slabs from Brazil. So there is flexibility built in our operations, and we will examine the order book, and based on that, we will plan our production cycles.
Speaker #3: We have very good positive that feedback. So the intention is to keep 2026. We believe it will be a better year in terms of profitability.
Speaker #2: that you answered the , I question thought very well .
Speaker #2: answer in an question ? Yeah book I the
Speaker #2: the order
Speaker #3: We are very confident that the company will continue to generate good levels of free cash. And as you know, the policy is such that 50% of that is the minimum.
Speaker #2: capacity in Brazil , so we can augment our facilities with from Brazil . So there is flexibility in building our slabs operations will examine the .
Speaker #3: Should flow to shareholders. And we continue to see good value in our stock. So I would think that as we generate free cash, the buyback will continue to be our preferred tool to return cash to
Cole Hathorn: Perfect. Thank you.
Cole Hathorn: Perfect. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Based on book, and we, on that, we will plan cycles production.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Daniel Fairclough: Great, thanks. Thanks, Carl. So we will move to take the next question from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Great, thanks. Thanks, Carl. So we will move to take the next question from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt, please go ahead.
Speaker #3: you Perfect . Thank . Thanks .
Speaker #1: Thanks , Thank you . Carl . So we will move to take the next question from Reinhart at Bank of America . Hi , Reinhart .
Speaker #3: shareholders.
Speaker #5: Understood. That's very clear. Thank you
[Analyst] (Bank of America): Hi there. Afternoon, Aditya and Genuino, thank you for taking my question. First one, I just wanna check on the dividend increase. Quite a substantial increase, I guess, this year and over the last five. It does seem like the buyback pace has slowed very slightly. Should we read this as maybe a mixed shift in how you're returning capital to shareholders? Or should we read this as an increase in the absolute level of payback in the dividend?
Reinhardt Van Der Walt: Hi there. Afternoon, Aditya and Genuino, thank you for taking my question. First one, I just wanna check on the dividend increase. Quite a substantial increase, I guess, this year and over the last five. It does seem like the buyback pace has slowed very slightly. Should we read this as maybe a mixed shift in how you're returning capital to shareholders? Or should we read this as an increase in the absolute level of payback in the dividend?
Speaker #5: both. And maybe if I could just ask one more question on your demand forecasts. So 2% this year, ex-China. But Europe specifically, I mean, we're seeing sort of PMIs turning and construction indicators moving.
Speaker #1: Please .
Speaker #4: Hi Afternoon , Aditya Janina . Thank my you for taking First one , I just want check on the dividend and question . increase .
Speaker #4: to Quite a increase , there . I guess substantial year this . And over the last it does five , seem like the buyback pace has slowed very slightly .
Speaker #5: Especially since you last reported. Can you give us a more specific number for the European market, by any chance?
Speaker #4: Should we read this as maybe a mix shift in how you're returning shareholders? Or should we capitalize to read this as an increase in the absolute level of payback in the—
Speaker #2: Yeah. Reinhardt, thank you for the question. This quarter or this yeah, this quarter we provided global guidance. The reason is because Bernsteel Consumption is changing I guess what am I trying to suggest to you?
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you, Reinhardt. I'll get Genuino to answer it specifically, or provide more details. But just at a high level, there is no change to our capital allocation framework, right? We think it has really served the company and its stakeholders really well. The framework remains 50% of free cash flow return to shareholders and 50% in terms of growth. We talked a lot about our growth portfolio in our opening remarks. You can see how well that is doing. We have not really used up much of the balance sheet, and yet we are delivering significant earnings enhancement, both in 2025, but also going forward. In terms of returns to shareholders, if you see, the share buyback program has been very successful.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you, Reinhardt. I'll get Genuino to answer it specifically, or provide more details. But just at a high level, there is no change to our capital allocation framework, right? We think it has really served the company and its stakeholders really well. The framework remains 50% of free cash flow return to shareholders and 50% in terms of growth. We talked a lot about our growth portfolio in our opening remarks. You can see how well that is doing. We have not really used up much of the balance sheet, and yet we are delivering significant earnings enhancement, both in 2025, but also going forward. In terms of returns to shareholders, if you see, the share buyback program has been very successful.
Speaker #4: dividend
Speaker #2: Thank you . Reinhart I'll Yeah . Genuino to get answer specifically or it provide more details . But just at a high is no change to our capital level , there allocation framework , right ?
Speaker #2: We think it has really served the company stakeholders really well and its . The framework remains cash flow return 50% of free to shareholders and 50% in terms growth .
Speaker #2: Historically, when we published our ASC numbers, that became a proxy for the change in our shipments in terms of markets. That is no longer the case because trade has become such a big driver that the change in our shipments is much more driven by trade policy.
Speaker #2: We've talked a lot about our growth portfolio in our opening. You can see how that is—we have not really used up much of the sheet.
Speaker #2: remarks . And yet we're delivering significant earnings enhancement both in 2025 , but also going of in terms returns to shareholders , if you see the buyback has been share very successful and confidence because of the that we have in the operating business and what we're seeing from a macro we're comfortable in increasing the this dividend quarter to $0.60 .
Speaker #2: So what we did want to do was provide you with the global macro outlook. That's what we're seeing. You spoke about some of the factors in Europe.
Speaker #2: The other factors in Europe that we're seeing on a more medium-term basis is the German outlook a positive see a resurgence in defense-based spending.
Aditya Mittal: Because of the confidence that we have in the underlying operating business and what we're seeing from a macro perspective, we're very comfortable in increasing the dividend this quarter to $0.60. With that, Genuino, please go ahead.
Aditya Mittal: Because of the confidence that we have in the underlying operating business and what we're seeing from a macro perspective, we're very comfortable in increasing the dividend this quarter to $0.60. With that, Genuino, please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Right? Now European countries are moving towards 5% of NATO spend. So that's a positive medium-term dynamic. Globally, in other markets, there are other positive dynamics.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, I think you touched on the key aspects of it. I think we did well in 2025. So we did more than the minimum according to our policy, and I think that's really the key message for everybody, is the policy has been working extremely well. I think we are very pleased with the outcome of the policy based on our interaction with shareholders as well. We have very good positive feedback, so the intention is to keep that. 2026 we believe will be a better year in terms of profitability. We are very confident that the company will continue to generate good levels of free cash. And as you know, the policy is such that 50% of that is a minimal should flow to shareholders.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, I think you touched on the key aspects of it. I think we did well in 2025. So we did more than the minimum according to our policy, and I think that's really the key message for everybody, is the policy has been working extremely well. I think we are very pleased with the outcome of the policy based on our interaction with shareholders as well. We have very good positive feedback, so the intention is to keep that. 2026 we believe will be a better year in terms of profitability. We are very confident that the company will continue to generate good levels of free cash. And as you know, the policy is such that 50% of that is a minimal should flow to shareholders.
Speaker #2: Jim, please go ahead.
Speaker #1: Yeah , I think you touched on the key
Speaker #2: So we just wanted to provide with you with the global perspective and then you can model what you expect how our shipments will do based on the changes in trade policy.
Speaker #1: we did
Speaker #1: 2025 . So did more we minimum . to our With According the key that's really think policy . And I underlying message policy for is everybody has working been extremely the well .
Speaker #2: So I hope that answers the question. Yeah? Thank you.
Speaker #5: Yep. Very well. Thank you. Thank you,
Speaker #1: I am very pleased with the outcome of the policy, based on our interaction with shareholders. We have very good, positive feedback. So the intention is to keep that to 2026.
Speaker #5: Adita. Thank
Speaker #3: Great. Thanks, Reinhardt. So you. we'll move now to take the next question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian. Please go
Speaker #1: Well, a better year in terms of being very confident that the company will generate good levels of free cash, and as you continue to know, the policy is such that 50% of that, at minimum, should flow to shareholders. We continue to see good value in our stock.
Speaker #3: ahead. Yeah.
Speaker #4: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I was just the first one on Europe as well. And I guess you turned more positive on the market as we all do.
Speaker #4: Just looking at the market structure though, Europe is obviously still a much more fragmented market than many other markets you're operating in. And I guess you did your job to a very large extent, but do you still see more scope and need for consolidation in Europe?
Genuino Christino: We continue to see good value in our stock, so I would think that as we generate free cash, the buyback will continue to be our preferred tool to return cash to shareholders.
Genuino Christino: We continue to see good value in our stock, so I would think that as we generate free cash, the buyback will continue to be our preferred tool to return cash to shareholders.
Speaker #1: So I think as we have free cash, the buyback will continue to be our preferred tool to return to shareholders profitability.
Speaker #1: So I think as that we would free cash , the buyback will continue to be our preferred tool to return to shareholders profitability .
Speaker #4: And would you aim to continue to play a role in this? Or is this something you would leave to the other players? That's my first
Speaker #4: question.
[Analyst] (Bank of America): Understood. That's very clear. Thank you both. Maybe if I could just ask one more question on your demand forecasts. So 2% this year, ex China, but Europe specifically, I mean, we're seeing sort of PMIs turning and construction indicators moving, especially since you last reported. Can you give us a more specific number for the European market by any chance?
Reinhardt Van Der Walt: Understood. That's very clear. Thank you both. Maybe if I could just ask one more question on your demand forecasts. So 2% this year, ex China, but Europe specifically, I mean, we're seeing sort of PMIs turning and construction indicators moving, especially since you last reported. Can you give us a more specific number for the European market by any chance?
Speaker #4: Understood . very clear . That's Thank you both maybe if I could just . And ask one more question on your demand forecasts .
Speaker #2: Europe. As we talked about, we have latent Yeah. Thank you, Bastian. capacity to grow it at minimal capital costs. Our CapEx and as you do it, you get economies of scale.
Speaker #4: So 2% year Ex-china . But Europe specifically , I mean we're seeing sort PMIs turning and construction indicators of , especially since you last since reported can you give us a more specific number for the European market moving by any chance .
Speaker #2: You get fixed-cost dilution, i.e., fixed-cost absorption. The assets that we have are well invested. They're producing high-quality products. We don't really see significant benefits from consolidating at this point in time, if anything changes, obviously.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, Reinhardt, thank you for the question. This quarter we provided global guidance. The reason is because apparent steel consumption is changing. I guess I'm trying to suggest to you historically, when we published our ASE numbers, that became a proxy for the change in our shipments in terms of markets. That is no longer the case, because trade has become such a big driver, that the change in our shipments is much more driven by trade policy. So what we did want to do was provide you with a global outlook, a positive macro outlook, that's what we're seeing. You spoke about some of the factors in Europe.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, Reinhardt, thank you for the question. This quarter we provided global guidance. The reason is because apparent steel consumption is changing. I guess I'm trying to suggest to you historically, when we published our ASE numbers, that became a proxy for the change in our shipments in terms of markets. That is no longer the case, because trade has become such a big driver, that the change in our shipments is much more driven by trade policy. So what we did want to do was provide you with a global outlook, a positive macro outlook, that's what we're seeing. You spoke about some of the factors in Europe.
Speaker #2: Yeah . Thank you for the question . We this or quarter . Yeah . This quarter we this provided global guidance . The reason is parents do consumption because changing .
Speaker #2: For the consolidation for us in Europe, anything changes, obviously, we will update you
Speaker #2: guys. Got you.
Speaker #4: Okay. Very clear. Then one more question actually on just the back and forth with seen on the European stance with regard to Russian material and how it may be treated in the context of the planned TDI.
Speaker #2: I . What am to I trying to u . Historically , when we published our ASE numbers , that for the change in our proxy in terms of markets , that is no because trade become such a big has that the suggest So what we want to did do policy .
Speaker #4: And I guess that also particularly depends on how far Siemens finished products are in scope or not. So do you have a view on this?
Speaker #4: And how far Russian Siemens may or should be tackled by the new tool?
Speaker #2: was case provide you with a , a positive outlook outlook . That's what guess seeing macro . You some of the factors in Europe .
Speaker #2: with information which is a So I can just provide you perspective. In terms of slabs, you're right. They are not part of the tariff rate quota, the TRQ.
Aditya Mittal: The other factors in Europe that we're seeing on a more medium-term basis is the German infrastructure spend. That's quite significant, as you're aware. You also see a resurgence in defense-based spending, right? Now, European countries are moving towards 5% of NATO spend, so that's a positive medium-term dynamic. Globally, in other markets, there are other positive dynamics. So we just wanted to provide you with a global perspective, and then you can model what you expect, how our shipments will do based on the changes in trade policy. So I hope-
Aditya Mittal: The other factors in Europe that we're seeing on a more medium-term basis is the German infrastructure spend. That's quite significant, as you're aware. You also see a resurgence in defense-based spending, right? Now, European countries are moving towards 5% of NATO spend, so that's a positive medium-term dynamic. Globally, in other markets, there are other positive dynamics. So we just wanted to provide you with a global perspective, and then you can model what you expect, how our shipments will do based on the changes in trade policy. So I hope-
Speaker #2: factors in Europe that The we're term more medium basis is German the spend . That's quite significant as you're aware seeing on a see a in resurgence , you also defense spending right now , moving towards European 5% of NATO spend .
Speaker #2: There has been a position paper that has been published by the European Parliament, I believe, where they are asking where they are demanding that there is no Russian slabs that are brought into the European marketplace.
Speaker #2: So that's a medium term dynamic globally . other And markets , there are other positive dynamics . So we just wanted to provide with a a global perspective .
Speaker #2: So that's a medium term dynamic globally . other And markets , there are other positive dynamics . So we just wanted to provide with a a global with you with And then you can model what you expect .
Speaker #2: But it is not a position that has yet been adopted by either the Council or the Commission. Clearly, there is a move in that direction.
Speaker #2: But time will tell whether that actually gets enacted into policy or
Speaker #2: How our shipments will do based on the positive changes in trade policy . So I hope that answers the question . Thank you .
Speaker #2: not. Got you.
Genuino Christino: Understood.
Reinhardt Van Der Walt: Understood.
Aditya Mittal: that answers the question. Yeah? Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: that answers the question. Yeah? Thank you.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thanks so much.
Genuino Christino: Yep, very well. Thank you. Thank you, Daniel.
Reinhardt Van Der Walt: Yep, very well. Thank you. Thank you, Daniel.
Speaker #2: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Bastian. So we'll move now to take a question from Matt at Goldman Sachs. Hi, Matt. Please go ahead.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Reinhardt. So we'll move now to take the next question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Reinhardt. So we'll move now to take the next question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian, please go ahead.
Speaker #4: well . Very Thank you .
Speaker #4: Thank you Yeah . .
Speaker #5: Thank you .
Speaker #6: Great . Thanks Ryan . So we'll move now to take the next question from Bastian at Deutsche , Bastian . ahead Please go .
Speaker #4: Hi. Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions. This is on CapEx and then a follow-on on Liberia. Just on CapEx, perhaps you can just clarify a couple of things.
Bastian Synagowitz: Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just, the first one on Europe as well, and I guess you turned more positive on the market, as we all do. Just looking at the market structure, though, Europe's obviously still a much more fragmented market than, many other markets you're operating in, and I guess you did your job, to a very large extent, but do you still see more scope and need for consolidation in Europe? And would you aim to continue to play a role in this, or is this something you would leave to the other players? That's my first question.
Bastian Synagowitz: Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just, the first one on Europe as well, and I guess you turned more positive on the market, as we all do. Just looking at the market structure, though, Europe's obviously still a much more fragmented market than, many other markets you're operating in, and I guess you did your job, to a very large extent, but do you still see more scope and need for consolidation in Europe? And would you aim to continue to play a role in this, or is this something you would leave to the other players? That's my first question.
Speaker #3: Yeah . afternoon . Thanks for Good taking my questions .
Speaker #3: Just one on Europe as well . I guess And you turned positive on Bank . as we all do the first . Just looking at the market structure , is obviously still a much more though , Europe fragmented market than many other markets you're operating in .
Speaker #4: Just the strategic CapEx spend was a bit was a bit of a fell short, I guess, of what you guided for the year. By about 3, 400 million dollars.
Speaker #4: So you spent about, I guess, 75% of the CapEx yet still delivered the full 400 million of strategic EBITDA uplift. That you guided through last year.
Speaker #3: And I guess you did your job to a very large extent . But do you still see more scope and need for consolidation in Europe , and would you aim to play a continue to this , role in or is this you would leave to the other players ?
Speaker #4: So I guess can you just sort of talk about what the moving bits are? Has that CapEx been deferred into 2026? Has it been canceled?
Speaker #3: So something that's my first question .
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you, Bastian. We are very comfortable with our footprint in Europe. As we talked about, we have latent capacity to grow it at minimal capital costs or CapEx. And as you do it, you get economies of scale, you get fixed cost dilution, i.e., fixed cost absorption. The assets that we have are well invested. They're producing high quality products. We don't really see significant benefits from consolidating at this point in time. If anything changes, obviously from further consolidation for us in Europe, if anything changes, obviously we will update you guys.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah. Thank you, Bastian. We are very comfortable with our footprint in Europe. As we talked about, we have latent capacity to grow it at minimal capital costs or CapEx. And as you do it, you get economies of scale, you get fixed cost dilution, i.e., fixed cost absorption. The assets that we have are well invested. They're producing high quality products. We don't really see significant benefits from consolidating at this point in time. If anything changes, obviously from further consolidation for us in Europe, if anything changes, obviously we will update you guys.
Speaker #4: Because I see '26 is that EBITDA uplift or that target uplift has been trimmed slightly as well. So yeah, if you could just help marry up what's going on there with some of the strategic CapEx spend, please.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Bastian, yeah. We're very comfortable with our footprint in Europe. As we talked about, we have latent capacity. We have capacity to grow it at minimal capital.
Speaker #3: Yeah. Matt, let me take that one. So you're right. So we came at the end a little bit lower than the
Speaker #2: our And costs CapEx . And as you do it , you get scale economies of . You cost dilution , i.e. fixed get fixed cost absorption .
Speaker #1: The low end of our range for CapEx . And really the delta match is . You biggest may have that we have just recently .
Speaker #2: The assets that we have are quality invested. Well, they're products, really. We don't see producing high significant benefits consolidating at this point from anything changes.
Speaker #1: there may have seen that we have just recently finalized the MDA expansion for Liberia , right . And are providing you with the number there .
Speaker #2: Obviously , for the consolidation for us in time . changes . Obviously we will If update you guys .
Bastian Synagowitz: Got you. Okay, very clear. Then, one more question, actually, on just the back and forth we've seen on the European stance, with regards to Russian material and how it may be treated in the context of the planned TDI. And I guess that also particularly depends on how far semi-finished products are in scope or not. So do you have a view on this, and how far Russian semis may or should be tackled by the new tool?
Bastian Synagowitz: Got you. Okay, very clear. Then, one more question, actually, on just the back and forth we've seen on the European stance, with regards to Russian material and how it may be treated in the context of the planned TDI. And I guess that also particularly depends on how far semi-finished products are in scope or not. So do you have a view on this, and how far Russian semis may or should be tackled by the new tool?
Speaker #3: You. Okay. Very clear. Then one more question on just the back and forth we've seen on the stance with Europe in regard—actually, with regards to Russian material and how it may be treated in the context of TDI planned.
Speaker #1: So this will we will have to pay the seen we $200 million in Q1 . And that number will be part of our CapEx it because gets capitalized and amortized .
Speaker #1: Throughout the life of the new MDA , which now extends until 2050 . Right . So that's about 200 . So if you add that to our CapEx of 2025 , then we are we are there .
Speaker #3: guess And I that also particularly the how far products are semi-finished or not . So do you on this and how far SMEs Russian or should have a view be tackled by the new tool ?
Aditya Mittal: I can just provide you with information versus a perspective. In terms of slabs, you're right, they are not part of the Tariff-Rate Quota, the TRQ. There has been a position paper that has been published by the European Parliament, I believe, where they are demanding that there is no Russian slabs that are brought into the European marketplace, but it is not a position that has yet been adopted by either the Council or the Commission. Clearly there is a move in that direction, but time will tell whether that actually gets enacted into policy or not.
Aditya Mittal: I can just provide you with information versus a perspective. In terms of slabs, you're right, they are not part of the Tariff-Rate Quota, the TRQ. There has been a position paper that has been published by the European Parliament, I believe, where they are demanding that there is no Russian slabs that are brought into the European marketplace, but it is not a position that has yet been adopted by either the Council or the Commission. Clearly there is a move in that direction, but time will tell whether that actually gets enacted into policy or not.
Speaker #2: So I can just provide you with information versus a perspective in terms of slabs . right You're , they're of tariff quota . rate TRC there been a paper that position published by the European the Parliament , I has been believe , asking are where where they are demanding there is no Russian slabs , that there that are brought into the European But it not a adopted is position yet been either the that has Council or the Commission .
Speaker #1: So no , no , no change to the project . Or delays . So we continue to move forward . Right . And then when we think about going to be doing what we're in 2026 , I think a lot of the CapEx will go into electrical sales US and in the Europe .
Speaker #1: The renewables , the project that we announced for renewables in India . Right . And then , of course , we will have this 200 for for Liberia .
Speaker #1: That should be paid quarter one . in So that's how I would describe the moving parts pieces of our strategic roadmap .
Speaker #2: Clearly there is a move in that direction , but time will tell whether that actually gets enacted into policy or not
Bastian Synagowitz: Got you. Okay, thanks so much.
Bastian Synagowitz: Got you. Okay, thanks so much.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Speaker #2: .
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Bastian. So we'll move now to take a question from Matt at Goldman Sachs. Hi, Matt, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Bastian. So we'll move now to take a question from Matt at Goldman Sachs. Hi, Matt, please go ahead.
Speaker #3: much Okay , .
Speaker #2: Got it . That's clear . Okay . So just to delay in that spend and obviously no EBITDA uplift given it's an extension of of the mining agreement .
Speaker #5: Thank you .
Speaker #6: Thanks , Bastian . So to take a question from we'll move now Matt at Sachs . Hi , Matt . Please go ahead .
Matt Greene: Hi, good afternoon. I have a couple of questions just on CapEx, and then a follow-on on Liberia. Just on CapEx, if perhaps you could just clarify a couple things. Just the strategic CapEx spend was a bit of a, it fell short, I guess, of what you guided for the year, by about $300 or $400 million. So you spent around, I guess, 75% of the CapEx, yet still delivered the full $400 million of strategic EBITDA uplift that you guided through last year. So I guess, can you just sort of talk about what the moving bits are? Is- has that CapEx been deferred into 2026? Has it been canceled? Because I see 2026 as that, that EBITDA uplift or that target uplift has been trimmed slightly as well.
Matt Greene: Hi, good afternoon. I have a couple of questions just on CapEx, and then a follow-on on Liberia. Just on CapEx, if perhaps you could just clarify a couple things. Just the strategic CapEx spend was a bit of a, it fell short, I guess, of what you guided for the year, by about $300 or $400 million. So you spent around, I guess, 75% of the CapEx, yet still delivered the full $400 million of strategic EBITDA uplift that you guided through last year. So I guess, can you just sort of talk about what the moving bits are? Is- has that CapEx been deferred into 2026? Has it been canceled? Because I see 2026 as that, that EBITDA uplift or that target uplift has been trimmed slightly as well.
Speaker #2: Okay . That's clear . Well look moving on to Liberia then . Just you touched on this agreement allowing you to push the rail up to 30 million tons .
Speaker #7: afternoon . have a questions couple of just on CapEx and Hi . Good on on Liberia . Just on I . If you could just clarify a couple of Just the strategic things .
Speaker #2: How should we think about the criteria here ? That would trigger the decision for you to move beyond 20 million tonnes ? And perhaps you could on what are the limitations ?
Speaker #7: CapEx spend was a bit was a bit fell short , I guess , of what you guided for the of a by about 3 or $400 million .
Speaker #2: Is rail the limitation at 20 million tonnes or is it the mine ? Are you oversizing any part of the mine to guess , allow I you allow you to expand at a lower capital in the future ?
Speaker #7: So you spent about , I guess , 75% of the CapEx . Yet delivered the 400 million of strategic EBITDA uplift that you guided through last full year .
Speaker #2: Could you just touch intensity on kind of how you're that thinking about pathway to 30 million tons ?
Speaker #7: guess , can you just sort of So I about what the bits are ? moving still into 2026 ? Has it been canceled because I see 26 ?
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thank you Matt . It's a great question . In terms of capacity , there's minimal infrastructure required for Rick . is quite well designed .
Matt Greene: So yeah, if you could just help marry up what's going on there with some of the strategic CapEx spend, please.
Matt Greene: So yeah, if you could just help marry up what's going on there with some of the strategic CapEx spend, please.
Speaker #7: Is that that EBITDA uplift or that target uplift has slightly So as well . yeah , if you could just help marry up , what's going on there with some of the CapEx strategic spend , please .
Speaker #3: It can accommodate up to 30 million tonnes . Probably have to buy some rolling stock , but you don't have to set up a whole new rail infrastructure in terms of the mine .
Genuino Christino: Yeah, Matt, let me take that one. So, you're right. So, we came at the end a little bit lower than the low end of our range for CapEx. And really the biggest delta there, that is, you may have seen that we have just recently finalized the MDA expansion for Liberia, right? And we are providing you with the number there. So this will, we will have to pay the government $200 million in Q1, and that number will be part of our CapEx, because it gets capitalized and amortized throughout the life of the new MDA, which now extends until 2050, right? So that's about 200.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, Matt, let me take that one. So, you're right. So, we came at the end a little bit lower than the low end of our range for CapEx. And really the biggest delta there, that is, you may have seen that we have just recently finalized the MDA expansion for Liberia, right? And we are providing you with the number there. So this will, we will have to pay the government $200 million in Q1, and that number will be part of our CapEx, because it gets capitalized and amortized throughout the life of the new MDA, which now extends until 2050, right? So that's about 200.
Speaker #1: Yeah . Matt , let me take that one . you're right . So came at the So end a little bit than the low end of our range for CapEx .
Speaker #3: We want to further explore and develop the mining licenses that we have . And examine how we can bring production up to 30 million tonnes at low capital costs that achieve our return on capital .
Speaker #1: And really the biggest delta there , you may have seen is that have just we recently the finalized MDA for explanation Right . Liberia .
Speaker #3: That's fundamentally it , right ? We want to make sure after we have made this investment , which is doing really well , and you can see the increase in production , Liberia and expected in 2026 , how we continue can to outperform and these deliver projects , which which create high return for the company .
Speaker #1: we are providing you number there . with the have to So this will pay the Q1 . $200 million in that number will be part of our because it gets capitalized and amortized throughout the life of the new MDA , which now extends until 2050 .
Speaker #3: So that study is underway and as soon as that is complete , we'll update you . It's not in our document in terms of what you can expect in the short term .
Genuino Christino: So if you add that to our CapEx of 2025, then we are there. No change to the projects or delays. We continue to move forward, right? And then when we think about what we're gonna be doing in 2026, I think a lot of the CapEx will go into electrical steels in US, in Europe, the renewables, the project that we announced for renewables in India, right? And then, of course, we will have this $200 million for Liberia that should be paid in Q1. So that's how I would describe the moving parts and pieces of our strategic growth CapEx.
Genuino Christino: So if you add that to our CapEx of 2025, then we are there. No change to the projects or delays. We continue to move forward, right? And then when we think about what we're gonna be doing in 2026, I think a lot of the CapEx will go into electrical steels in US, in Europe, the renewables, the project that we announced for renewables in India, right? And then, of course, we will have this $200 million for Liberia that should be paid in Q1. So that's how I would describe the moving parts and pieces of our strategic growth CapEx.
Speaker #1: Right . So that's about 200 . So if you add that to our of we 2025 , are we are there . So no , CapEx no , no change to the project .
Speaker #3: So you can expect that this will take a little bit of time before it's finalized .
Speaker #2: That's very clear . Thanks very much .
Speaker #3: Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thanks , Matt . So we'll move now to take a question from Timna at Wells Fargo . Hi , Timna . Good morning .
Speaker #1: So delays . So we continue to move forward . Right . And then when we think about what we're going to be doing in 2026 , I think a lot of the CapEx go into electrical sales in the US and will Europe .
Speaker #4: Hello . Hello . Thanks for taking my question . I wanted to follow up with Aditya's comments on the opening remarks about the additional measures in Canada and Brazil , and curious about your thoughts .
Speaker #1: The renewables , the announced for we projects that renewables in India . Right . And then , of course , we will have this 200 for for Liberia .
Speaker #4: There's also , of course , threats to India and Mexico of your coverage . And given the sharp measures to prohibit , trade or restrict trade , I suppose , to the US and EU , is there not even more those risk on regions than are they doing enough to combat , you know , excess you've that alluded supply to ?
Speaker #1: That should be paid in in then quarter one. That's—so, how I would describe the moving parts, pieces of our strategic group.
Matt Greene: Got it. That's okay. Okay, so just a delay in that spend, and obviously, no EBITDA uplift, given it's an extension of the mining agreement. Okay, that's clear. Well, look, moving on to Liberia then, just, you know, you touched on this agreement, allowing you to push the rail up to 30 million tons. How should we think about the criteria here that would trigger the decision for you to move beyond 20, 20 million tons? And perhaps you could just touch on, you know, what are the limitations? Is rail the limitation at 20 million tons, or is it the mine? Are you oversizing any parts of the mine to, I guess, allow you to expand at a lower capital intensity in the future?
Matt Greene: Got it. That's okay. Okay, so just a delay in that spend, and obviously, no EBITDA uplift, given it's an extension of the mining agreement. Okay, that's clear. Well, look, moving on to Liberia then, just, you know, you touched on this agreement, allowing you to push the rail up to 30 million tons. How should we think about the criteria here that would trigger the decision for you to move beyond 20, 20 million tons? And perhaps you could just touch on, you know, what are the limitations? Is rail the limitation at 20 million tons, or is it the mine? Are you oversizing any parts of the mine to, I guess, allow you to expand at a lower capital intensity in the future?
Speaker #3: Yeah . Excellent question . The short answer is yes . There is heightened risk in these markets . So we talked about Canada already .
Speaker #7: Got it . That's clear . Okay . So just a delay spend . And obviously no EBITDA uplift given it's an in that of of the mining okay .
Speaker #7: Got it . That's clear . Okay . So just a delay spend . And obviously no EBITDA uplift given it's an
Speaker #7: That's clear . Well look moving on to Liberia then . Just you know you touched on .
Speaker #3: So I won't it . I addressed Mexico I believe that they're moving forward . But the pace can be accelerated in terms of Brazil .
Speaker #7: agreement allowing you to push the rail to up 30 million tons . Thanks How how should we think about the criteria here ? That would trigger a decision to move 20 million tonnes ?
Speaker #3: It's a similar conversation . The government is very engaged on ensuring that the steel industry in Brazil continues to thrive . They understand that the steel industry is domestically important , both long and flat .
Speaker #7: And perhaps you could just touch beyond 20 , on , are the limitations ? Is rail the what it the mine ? Are limitation at you oversizing any part of the mine to I guess , allow you allow you to expand at a lower capital intensity in the Could on kind of how you're thinking about future ?
Speaker #7: And perhaps you could just touch beyond 20 , on , are the limitations ? Is rail the what it the mine ? Are limitation at you oversizing any part of the mine to I guess , allow you allow you to expand at a lower capital intensity in the Could on kind of how you're thinking about future ? you just touch that pathway to 30 million tonnes ?
Matt Greene: Could you just touch on kind of how you're thinking about that pathway to 30 million tons?
Matt Greene: Could you just touch on kind of how you're thinking about that pathway to 30 million tons?
Speaker #3: There have been some new measures that have been put in place recently . We expect this to further develop . Let us see the impact of the European trade measure that will be put in place .
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, thank you, Matt. It's a great question. In terms of capacity, there's minimal infrastructure required for rail. The rail is quite well designed. It can accommodate up to 30 million tons. Probably have to buy some rolling stock, but you don't have to set up a whole new rail infrastructure. In terms of the mine, we want to further explore and develop the mining licenses that we have, and examine how we can bring production up to 30 million tons, at low capital costs that achieve our return on capital. That's fundamentally it, right?
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, thank you, Matt. It's a great question. In terms of capacity, there's minimal infrastructure required for rail. The rail is quite well designed. It can accommodate up to 30 million tons. Probably have to buy some rolling stock, but you don't have to set up a whole new rail infrastructure. In terms of the mine, we want to further explore and develop the mining licenses that we have, and examine how we can bring production up to 30 million tons, at low capital costs that achieve our return on capital. That's fundamentally it, right?
Speaker #2: Yeah you Matt . It's . Thank a great question . In terms of capacity , there's minimal infrastructure required for real . rail is is quite well The designed .
Speaker #3: Latest by 1st of July . And what it does to some of these markets . But I would expect that governments will react .
Speaker #3: I mean , if there is a that very that is think impact important , I recognizing to to support the domestic steel industry for supply resilience , for national security , for various other reasons .
Speaker #2: It can to 30 million tonnes. Have to buy probably some rolling stock. But you don't have to set up a whole new rail infrastructure. In terms of mine, we want to further explore and develop the mining licenses that we have, accommodate up, and how we can examine production up to 30 million tonnes at low capital costs.
Speaker #3: And so I am not overly concerned by that development or by that scenario . I should say , in terms of India , in India , I think you are solving for two things at the same time .
Speaker #2: That achieve our return on capital . That's fundamentally it , right ? We want to make sure after we have made this investment , which is doing really well , and you can see the increase in production in expected more in 2026 , how we can continue to outperform and deliver these projects , which which create high return for the company .
Aditya Mittal: We wanna make sure after we have made this investment, which is doing really well, and we can see the increase in production in Liberia and more expected in 2026, how we can continue to outperform, and deliver these projects, which create higher returns for the company. So that study is underway, and as soon as that is complete, we'll update you. It's not in our document in terms of what you can expect in the short term, so you can expect that this will take a little bit of time before it's finalized.
Aditya Mittal: We wanna make sure after we have made this investment, which is doing really well, and we can see the increase in production in Liberia and more expected in 2026, how we can continue to outperform, and deliver these projects, which create higher returns for the company. So that study is underway, and as soon as that is complete, we'll update you. It's not in our document in terms of what you can expect in the short term, so you can expect that this will take a little bit of time before it's finalized.
Speaker #3: It's unique from other markets in the sense that their significant growth and when you have growth that that clearly supports the it development , supports profitability .
Speaker #3: As you continue to drive scale advantage , you can do productivity improvement and a 6 to 8% growth level is quite healthy for a market .
Speaker #2: So that underway as soon and is complete , we'll update It's you . our in terms of what you study is can expect in the term .
Speaker #3: And so I think the growth vector offsets some of the trade actions in that market , because the government remains focused on very inflation .
Speaker #2: short document can expect that So you this will take a little it's time before bit of finalized .
Matt Greene: That's very clear. Thanks very much.
Matt Greene: That's very clear. Thanks very much.
Speaker #3: Nevertheless , even existing trade place , steel India we can see in that the remains profitable profitable . Growth is . And that's where we continue to expand our operations .
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Matt. So we'll move now to take a question from Timna at Wells Fargo. Hi, Timna. Good morning.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Matt. So we'll move now to take a question from Timna at Wells Fargo. Hi, Timna. Good morning.
Speaker #7: very clear . That's much .
Speaker #7: Thanks very
Speaker #5: Thank you
Speaker #6: boss . . Thanks , So we'll now to take a question from Timna Fargo . Hi , Timna . move at Good .
Timna Tanners: Oh, hello, thanks for taking my question. Wanted to follow up with Aditya's comments on the opening remarks about the additional measures in Canada and Brazil, and curious about your thoughts. You know, there's also, of course, threats to India and Mexico of your coverage. And given the, you know, sharp measures to prohibit trade or restrict trade, I suppose, to the US and EU, is there not even more risk on those regions, and are they doing enough to combat, you know, the excess supply that you've alluded to?
Timna Tanners: Oh, hello, thanks for taking my question. Wanted to follow up with Aditya's comments on the opening remarks about the additional measures in Canada and Brazil, and curious about your thoughts. You know, there's also, of course, threats to India and Mexico of your coverage. And given the, you know, sharp measures to prohibit trade or restrict trade, I suppose, to the US and EU, is there not even more risk on those regions, and are they doing enough to combat, you know, the excess supply that you've alluded to?
Speaker #3: So hope that provided you with a quick perspective .
Speaker #8: Hello . Hello . Thanks for
Speaker #8: taking my
Speaker #8: Question. Following Aditya's morning update with opening remarks about the comments on additional measures in Canada and Brazil, I'm curious about your thoughts.
Speaker #4: Yeah , I appreciate it . It's not a quick topic , but we'll stay tuned on that other question we had . I just wanted to get your perspective on the substitution risk and opportunity in Europe in particular .
Speaker #8: There's also , course , threats Wells Mexico to coverage . And given the , you know , measures to start your , trade or restrict trade , I suppose , to the US EU and , is there not even more risk on those regions ?
Speaker #4: So we have heard that maybe Audi is switching more to steal from aluminum on the margin , but then also perhaps the move up in prices could risk some demand destruction .
Speaker #4: So just wanted your thoughts on substitution both ways if possible please .
Speaker #8: doing And are they to , you know , the combat supply that you've to alluded ?
Speaker #8: enough
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, Timna, excellent question. The short answer is yes. There is heightened risk in these markets. So I talked about Canada already, so I won't go through it. I addressed Mexico, I believe, that they're moving forward, but the pace can be accelerated. In terms of Brazil, it's a similar conversation. The government is very engaged on ensuring that the steel industry in Brazil continues to thrive. They understand that the steel industry is domestically important, both long and flat. There have been some new measures that have been put in place recently. We expect this to further develop.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, Timna, excellent question. The short answer is yes. There is heightened risk in these markets. So I talked about Canada already, so I won't go through it. I addressed Mexico, I believe, that they're moving forward, but the pace can be accelerated. In terms of Brazil, it's a similar conversation. The government is very engaged on ensuring that the steel industry in Brazil continues to thrive. They understand that the steel industry is domestically important, both long and flat. There have been some new measures that have been put in place recently. We expect this to further develop.
Speaker #3: Sure . So we have through gone markets in which there have been significant tariff or trade measures put in place . I mean , I believe you live The in one .
Speaker #2: Yeah . Excellent question . The short answer is yes . There heightened is risk in these markets . So we talked already . So I Canada about through it .
Speaker #3: United States and we have not seen that level disruption significant demand or destruction in the downstream industries . Right . think So I overall , this is Not .
Speaker #2: Mexico I addressed believe that they're pace can forward . But the be accelerated terms of Brazil . It's a conversation . similar The government is very engaged in on ensuring that the steel industry in Brazil continues to thrive understand that the steel domestically important , both long and industry is flat .
Speaker #3: a phenomena that we are concerned about . However , we do want our customer base to be competitive . I think we always want to grow with our customer base so that really is the thing that we want to solve towards .
Speaker #2: There have been some new been measures that have recently . We put in place expect this to further develop . Let us see the impact of European trade measure that the will be put place in by 1st of July .
Speaker #3: How can our customer base continue to grow and flourish in that ? I think there's a lot of activity in the European Union and recognition that that is also very important .
Aditya Mittal: Let us see the impact of the European trade measure that will be put in place, latest by 1 July, and what it does to some of these markets, but I would expect that governments will react. I mean, if there is a direct impact, I think everyone is recognizing that this is very important to support the domestic steel industry for supplier resilience, for national security, for various other reasons. And so, I am not overly concerned by that development, or by that scenario, I should say. In terms of India, in India, I think you are solving for two things at the same time. It's unique from other markets in the sense that there's significant growth. And when you have growth, that clearly supports the development, it supports profitability.
Aditya Mittal: Let us see the impact of the European trade measure that will be put in place, latest by 1 July, and what it does to some of these markets, but I would expect that governments will react. I mean, if there is a direct impact, I think everyone is recognizing that this is very important to support the domestic steel industry for supplier resilience, for national security, for various other reasons. And so, I am not overly concerned by that development, or by that scenario, I should say. In terms of India, in India, I think you are solving for two things at the same time. It's unique from other markets in the sense that there's significant growth. And when you have growth, that clearly supports the development, it supports profitability.
Speaker #3: For European industrialization . And so if you if you see in the TRC , there is a conversation on what has to be done on downstream industries as well , similar to what the US has done .
Speaker #2: And what it does to some of these expect that would governments will react . I mean , markets . is a But I direct impact , I everyone is think recognizing that that is very important to to support the steel industry domestic supplier for resilience , for national security , various other reasons .
Speaker #3: And so I would expect that once this is in place , there will be a conversation on TRC measures for downstream industries . The downstream industries are not as well organized as steel , so it will take some time .
Speaker #2: so am not And I overly concerned that by development that or buy I should say , in India terms of , in scenario .
Speaker #3: I do But expect that to occur . There's a similar conversation on C-band for downstream industries . What can be done in terms of C-band for downstream industries ?
Speaker #2: Think, are you solving two things at the time? It's the same for—in the other unique form, there are senses that signify markets.
Speaker #3: So I do that as these measures are put in place for the steel business , they're also put in place expect for some of the downstream industries .
Speaker #2: growth And when you have growth that clearly supports the that development , it supports profitability . As you continue to drive scale can do advantage , you productivity improvement a and healthy for a quite market .
Aditya Mittal: As you continue to drive scale advantage, you can do productivity improvement, and a 6 to 8% growth level is quite healthy for our market. And so I think the growth vector offsets some of the trade actions in that market because the government remains very focused on inflation. Nevertheless, even with the existing trade policy in place, we can see that the steel industry in India remains profitable, growth is profitable, and that's why we continue to expand our operations. So Timna, I hope that provided you with a quick perspective.
Aditya Mittal: As you continue to drive scale advantage, you can do productivity improvement, and a 6 to 8% growth level is quite healthy for our market. And so I think the growth vector offsets some of the trade actions in that market because the government remains very focused on inflation. Nevertheless, even with the existing trade policy in place, we can see that the steel industry in India remains profitable, growth is profitable, and that's why we continue to expand our operations. So Timna, I hope that provided you with a quick perspective.
Speaker #3: And that is also supported . For example , we're growing our electrical steel franchise , and we do want to see electric be manufactured in Europe , not just the assembly of the vehicles , everything , but right ?
Speaker #2: And so I think the 6 to 8% growth level is a vector; some trade actions in that market, government remains very focused because of the on inflation.
Speaker #3: The whole the whole gamut of activities . So that is the direction of travel . And that is what remain we focused on in terms of automotive steels .
Speaker #2: focused even Nevertheless , with the existing policy in trade place , we can see that the industry in India remains profitable . Growth is steel profitable .
Speaker #3: Look , we have a leading franchise . We continue to do very well . In demonstrating that that steel is the premier product .
Speaker #3: It has excellent lightweighting capability and is available at a very competitive cost through our R&D efforts , through our process capabilities . That journey continues in all the markets in which we operate .
Speaker #2: And that's where we continue to expand our operations . So I hope that provided you with a quick perspective
Timna Tanners: Yeah, I appreciate it. It's not a quick topic, but we'll stay tuned. The other question we had, I just wanted to get your perspective on the substitution risk and opportunity in Europe in particular. So we have heard that maybe Audi is switching more to steel from aluminum on the margin, but then also perhaps the move up in prices could risk some demand destruction. So just wanted your thoughts on substitution both ways, if possible, please.
Timna Tanners: Yeah, I appreciate it. It's not a quick topic, but we'll stay tuned. The other question we had, I just wanted to get your perspective on the substitution risk and opportunity in Europe in particular. So we have heard that maybe Audi is switching more to steel from aluminum on the margin, but then also perhaps the move up in prices could risk some demand destruction. So just wanted your thoughts on substitution both ways, if possible, please.
Speaker #8: It's not a appreciate it . quick . Yeah , I on we had , I just wanted to get your perspective on the substitution And risk .
Speaker #8: stay we'll
Speaker #4: Thanks for the Okay . color .
Speaker #3: Sure .
Speaker #1: Thanks , Tim . So we'll move now to take a question from Phil at KeyBanc . Hi . Good morning . Phil .
Speaker #8: Europe in particular . So opportunity in we have heard that maybe the other more to question aluminum on the margin , then also perhaps the move up in prices could risk some demand So just destruction .
Speaker #5: Hey , thank you . Regarding Calvert , just curious where the current operating rates are on the EAF and then in Mexico , how much incremental volume should we think is coming back after the outages ?
Speaker #8: your thoughts substitution both ways if possible please
Aditya Mittal: Sure. So we have gone through markets in which there have been significant, tariff or trade measures put in place. I mean, I believe you live in one, the United States, and we have not seen that level of demand destruction, or significant demand destruction in the downstream industries, right? So I think overall, this is not a phenomenon that we are concerned about. However, we do want our customer base to be competitive. I think we always wanna grow with our customer base. So that really is the thing that we want to solve towards. How can our customer base continue to grow and flourish? In that, I think there is a lot of activity in the European Union, a recognition that is also very important for European industrialization.
Aditya Mittal: Sure. So we have gone through markets in which there have been significant, tariff or trade measures put in place. I mean, I believe you live in one, the United States, and we have not seen that level of demand destruction, or significant demand destruction in the downstream industries, right? So I think overall, this is not a phenomenon that we are concerned about. However, we do want our customer base to be competitive. I think we always wanna grow with our customer base. So that really is the thing that we want to solve towards. How can our customer base continue to grow and flourish? In that, I think there is a lot of activity in the European Union, a recognition that is also very important for European industrialization.
Speaker #8: .
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #2: we have So gone through markets Sure which there have been in significant tariff or trade in place . I mean , I one .
Speaker #1: Yeah . Look , we are progressing with the ramp up of the . Yeah . So our expectation is to see a meaningful improvement in quarter one .
Speaker #2: in States believe we The seen that live level of demand or , and we disruption in the downstream disruption significant demand . Right industries measures put I think overall , this is .
Speaker #1: And as we discussed , we are hoping to be up and running at capacity towards the end of the second . The second half right .
Speaker #2: . Not a So we are
Speaker #1: So progressing progressing well . We are in dialogue with our customers for the homologation of the product . So progressing . It's progressing well and Mexico .
Speaker #2: concerned about . However , we do want our customer base to be on competitive . think I we grow with always want to our customer So that is really base .
Speaker #2: the want to solve towards . thing that we our customer base continue to grow and flourish in think there's that ? a lot of I activity in the European Union and recognition that that is also very European for important industrialization .
Speaker #1: the Really volumes that we're going to see coming in quarter one . So as you know we have two business in Mexico longs and flat a business was basically at the furnace was not operating in quarter four .
Aditya Mittal: And so if you see in the TRQ, there is a conversation on what has to be done on downstream industries as well, similar to what the US has done. And so I would expect that once this is in place, there will be a conversation on TRQ measures for downstream industries. The downstream industries are not as well organized as steel, so it will take some time, but I do expect that to occur. There's a similar conversation on CBAM for downstream industries. What can be done in terms of CBAM for downstream industries? So I do expect that as these measures are put in place for the steel business, they're also put in place for some of the downstream industries. And that is also supported.
Aditya Mittal: And so if you see in the TRQ, there is a conversation on what has to be done on downstream industries as well, similar to what the US has done. And so I would expect that once this is in place, there will be a conversation on TRQ measures for downstream industries. The downstream industries are not as well organized as steel, so it will take some time, but I do expect that to occur. There's a similar conversation on CBAM for downstream industries. What can be done in terms of CBAM for downstream industries? So I do expect that as these measures are put in place for the steel business, they're also put in place for some of the downstream industries. And that is also supported.
Speaker #2: So if you—if, and you see TRC, there's a conversation to be done on what has to happen to downstream industries, as in the, well, similar to what the US has done.
Speaker #1: started It end of So Jan . you're going two months then . And to have it's a fun produces . And that about a million tons .
Speaker #2: And so I would expect that once this is in place, there will be a conversation on TRC measures for downstream industries. The downstream industries are not as organized as steel, so it will take some time.
Speaker #1: So you're going to have two months of of the production . And shipments . And that's what you're going to see on the flat side .
Speaker #2: do But I as expect that to There's a similar occur . on conversation Cbam for downstream industries . What can be in terms of cbam for downstream So I do industries ?
Speaker #1: So we we had maintenance for about one month in , in , in , in Q4 . So you're going to have the full quarter , quarter one in operation .
Speaker #2: expect that as these are put in place for the steel measures place put in the downstream for some of industries . And also that is example , we're our supported steel franchise and to see we do want electrical manufactured in Europe , not electric just assembly of the the vehicles , Right ?
Speaker #1: So that should add another . So we are talking about 2.8 million tons for for flat business at the moment . So so then to be one one month more of capacity to .
Aditya Mittal: For example, we're growing our Electrical Steel franchise, and we do want to see electric vehicles being manufactured in Europe, not just the assembly of the vehicles, but everything, right? The whole gamut of activities. So, that is the direction of travel, and that is what we remain focused on. In terms of automotive steels, look, we have a leading franchise. We continue to do very well in demonstrating that steel is the premier product. It has excellent lightweighting capability and is available at a very competitive cost. Through our R&D efforts, through our process capabilities, that journey continues in all the markets in which we operate.
Aditya Mittal: For example, we're growing our Electrical Steel franchise, and we do want to see electric vehicles being manufactured in Europe, not just the assembly of the vehicles, but everything, right? The whole gamut of activities. So, that is the direction of travel, and that is what we remain focused on. In terms of automotive steels, look, we have a leading franchise. We continue to do very well in demonstrating that steel is the premier product. It has excellent lightweighting capability and is available at a very competitive cost. Through our R&D efforts, through our process capabilities, that journey continues in all the markets in which we operate.
Speaker #5: Thank you . And then just as a follow up , I saw DNA pop pretty good in Q4 . I think largely it was in North America .
Speaker #2: but whole The the whole gamut everything . activities . So direction of , for travel and that leading franchise . have a We we very continue to of automotive in terms remain is Look , is the premier what we has lightweighting capability and is excellent product .
Speaker #5: What should we be modeling just overall for DNA for 26 ?
Speaker #1: For 26 overall of you're asking for overall or for North American , North America overall ?
Speaker #2: demonstrating cost on available at a very through steels . well competitive our R&D through our process journey all the continues in in which we markets operate It .
Speaker #5: I just noticed a change in North America a lot quarter over quarter . But .
Speaker #1: Yeah , yeah , yeah yeah . So if you read our MDA and you're going to see we are providing a guidance on that field , it should be in the range of 2.9 to 3 billion .
Speaker #2: That Thanks ,
Max Kogge: Thanks for the color.
Timna Tanners: Thanks for the color.
Aditya Mittal: Sure.
Aditya Mittal: Sure.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Timna. So we'll move now to take a question from Phil at KeyBanc. Hi, good morning, Phil.
Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Timna. So we'll move now to take a question from Phil at KeyBanc. Hi, good morning, Phil.
Speaker #8: thanks for the .
Speaker #8: color Okay ,
Speaker #8: .
Speaker #1: So some of the new projects of course coming online . So there is depreciation for that . Right . And what you see the delta that you see in North America in quarter four is just as you typically do at end of the year .
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #6: Tim . So now Sure to take a from question Phil at we'll move KeyBanc
Phil Gibbs: Hey, thank you. Regarding Calvert, just curious where the current operating rates are on the EAF. And then in Mexico, how much incremental volume should we think is coming back after the outages?
Phil Gibbs: Hey, thank you. Regarding Calvert, just curious where the current operating rates are on the EAF. And then in Mexico, how much incremental volume should we think is coming back after the outages?
Speaker #6: . Thank . Morning , Phil .
Speaker #9: Hey , thank you . Regarding that is the Calvert , just operating the current curious where are rates in on EAF . And then Mexico , the much how incremental volume should we think is coming back after the ?
Speaker #1: So as we know , this is all based on the extent that we estimates . And to have assets that ended get to end of end of life , we have this correction .
Genuino Christino: Yeah, Phil, look, we are progressing, Phil, with the ramp up of the yeah. So our expectation is to see a meaningful improvement in Q1. And as we discussed, we are hoping to be up and running at capacity towards the end of the second half, right? So it's progressing well. We are in line with our customers for the homologation of the product. So everything, it's progressing well. In Mexico, really the volumes that we're gonna see coming in Q1. So we, as you know, we have two business in Mexico, longs and flats. The long business was basically the furnace was not operating in Q4 and started end of Jan.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, Phil, look, we are progressing, Phil, with the ramp up of the yeah. So our expectation is to see a meaningful improvement in Q1. And as we discussed, we are hoping to be up and running at capacity towards the end of the second half, right? So it's progressing well. We are in line with our customers for the homologation of the product. So everything, it's progressing well. In Mexico, really the volumes that we're gonna see coming in Q1. So we, as you know, we have two business in Mexico, longs and flats. The long business was basically the furnace was not operating in Q4 and started end of Jan.
Speaker #5: Yeah
Speaker #1: we are
Speaker #1: progressing . with the Look , ramp up of . Yeah . outages So our is to expectation see a quarter one . And as we improvement in , we are hoping to and running at capacity towards the end of the second .
Speaker #1: So that should not be the run rate for for the full year .
Speaker #5: Thank you .
Speaker #6: Great . Thanks , Phil . So we have time for one more question , which we will take from Max at Otto . Hi , Max .
Speaker #1: The second half . Right . it's progressing So progressing We well . are with in dialogue our customers for the homologation of the product .
Speaker #6: Hi , Max . Yeah . Hello .
Speaker #7: Yeah , hello . And thanks for taking my questions . So the first one is on Ilva . There has been some developments recently which have forced you to issue a press release .
Speaker #1: a So progressing it's progressing well in really . The Mexico , volumes that we're be up going to coming in see quarter one .
Speaker #7: Can you perhaps give us some sense of the next milestones ? There ? And when we will get more clarity on the financial impact ?
Speaker #7: I assume you haven't provisioned any amount at this stage right ?
Speaker #1: So you know , we have in we as Mexico two businesses and , longs flats , a distance was long basically was not four .
Speaker #1: Yeah . Hi , Max . Yeah . So , look , I mean , have the response right ? refer And you to the there , you press release and that's the right go .
Genuino Christino: So you're gonna have two months then, and it's a furnace that produces about 1 million tons. So you're gonna have two months of the production and shipments, so that's what you're gonna see. On the flat side, so we had maintenance for about one month in Q4. So you're gonna have the full quarter, Q1 in operation. So that should add another, so we are talking about 2.8 million tons for our flat business at the moment. So then it's going to be one month more of capacity, Phil.
Genuino Christino: So you're gonna have two months then, and it's a furnace that produces about 1 million tons. So you're gonna have two months of the production and shipments, so that's what you're gonna see. On the flat side, so we had maintenance for about one month in Q4. So you're gonna have the full quarter, Q1 in operation. So that should add another, so we are talking about 2.8 million tons for our flat business at the moment. So then it's going to be one month more of capacity, Phil.
Speaker #1: place to And . Absolutely right . So we have no provisions for that . We we don't believe that it's the case . It's it's has any merit .
Speaker #1: It started quarter the end of So you're Jan . going to have two months then . And a fun that it's about produces a million tons .
Speaker #1: So there are no , no provisions in our books . And in terms of timing , I mean , we'll see . But when we speak with our lawyers , it's likely that it may last for a couple of years .
Speaker #1: You have two months or so of the production, and you're gonna see shipments. That's what you're going to see on the flat side.
Speaker #1: So we were we had maintenance for about one month in , in , in , in Q4 . So have the full quarter , quarter one in operation .
Speaker #1: So we will of course , update you as and when the are new developments . But it should be it should take some time .
Speaker #1: So should add another . are So we talking about 2.8 million tons for for business at the moment . flat So so going to then it's be one more one month capacity of .
Speaker #7: Okay . Second question is on Cbam . Can you give us a bit of your initial feedback on the first month of implementation ?
Speaker #7: Do you still see some circumvention going through the system ? It seems also , there was some imports from loading ahead of Cbam at the end of last year .
Phil Gibbs: Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, I saw DNA pop pretty good in Q4. I think largely it was in North America. What should we be modeling just overall for DNA for 2026?
Phil Gibbs: Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, I saw DNA pop pretty good in Q4. I think largely it was in North America. What should we be modeling just overall for DNA for 2026?
Speaker #9: Thank you . And then just as a follow up , I saw DNA pop in Q4 . I think largely it was in North America .
Speaker #7: So does it mean that the most of the impact from Cbam in terms of pricing is yet to come ?
Speaker #9: What should we just overall be DNA for, for '26?
Genuino Christino: For 26 overall, or for you, you're asking for overall or for North America?
Genuino Christino: For 26 overall, or for you, you're asking for overall or for North America?
Speaker #3: Yeah , that's a that's a great question . So I'll other parts of your question in terms of the the front loading of the seaborn , the cbam came into effect first Jan 2026 .
Speaker #1: 26 overall. You're asking for overall or for North America? For North America.
Phil Gibbs: Overall. I just noticed a change-
Phil Gibbs: Overall. I just noticed a change-
Genuino Christino: Overall.
Genuino Christino: Overall.
Phil Gibbs: -in North America a lot, quarter-over-quarter, but-
Phil Gibbs: -in North America a lot, quarter-over-quarter, but-
Speaker #9: just
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Yeah.
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker #9: noticed a in North Overall ? I a lot
Phil Gibbs: Yeah.
Phil Gibbs: Yeah.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, yeah. Sure. Yeah, so if you read our DNA, you're gonna see we are providing a guidance on that, Phil. It should be in the range of $2.9 to 3 billion. So some of the new projects, of course, coming online, so there is a depreciation for that, right? And what you see, the data that you see in North America in Q4, it's just as you typically do at end of the year. So, and as we know, this is all based on estimates and to the extent that we have assets that get to end of life, we have this correction. So that should not be the run rate for the full year.
Genuino Christino: Yeah, yeah. Sure. Yeah, so if you read our DNA, you're gonna see we are providing a guidance on that, Phil. It should be in the range of $2.9 to 3 billion. So some of the new projects, of course, coming online, so there is a depreciation for that, right? And what you see, the data that you see in North America in Q4, it's just as you typically do at end of the year. So, and as we know, this is all based on estimates and to the extent that we have assets that get to end of life, we have this correction. So that should not be the run rate for the full year.
Speaker #9: Over quarter. But quarter America.
Speaker #5: yeah
Speaker #5: . yeah
Speaker #1: Yeah , , yeah . So if you read our MDA and you're going to are providing on guidance should be in the field , it range of 2.9 to 3 billion .
Speaker #3: However , as for the legislation , it's for product , which is before before produced first Jan 2026 does not have any CO2 .
Speaker #1: So some of the new projects of course coming online . So there is for appreciation that . Right . And what you see that you see America in quarter four , it's just as do that at end of the typically in North year .
Speaker #3: Right ? So the product may arrive in or Feb , but as long Jan as it was produced in December 2025 , there cbam is no effect .
Speaker #3: So you don't see it in the numbers . However , we are seeing it now because import January offers are including cbam and as you can see in Europe there has been a change in the spot pricing of steel and that is reflecting some of it is reflecting the cbam effect in terms of your question on , as you circumvention know , there is a also a an activity further to tighten the cbam and there are a few topics address .
Speaker #1: So and this is all based the we know , on extent that we you as have ended get to end of end of life , that this correction .
Speaker #1: that should So be the rate for run for the full year
Phil Gibbs: Thank you.
Phil Gibbs: Thank you.
Speaker #1: . Thank you
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Phil. So we have time I think for one more question, which we will take from Max at Oddo. Hi, Max. Hi, Max, please go ahead.
Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Phil. So we have time I think for one more question, which we will take from Max at Oddo. Hi, Max. Hi, Max, please go ahead.
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #6: . Thanks , Phil . So we Great have question . time will take Which we for one more from Max at Otto Max .
Speaker #3: I spoke to about , I think Tim asked a question downstream . on I spoke about the downstream . There is a review on do for Cbam downstream .
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, hello. Yeah, hello, and thanks for taking my questions. So, the first one is on Ilva. There has been some developments recently which have forced you to issue a press release. Can you perhaps give us some sense of the next milestone there, and when we will get more clarity on the financial impact? I assume you haven't provisioned any amount at this stage, right?
Max Jousma: Yeah, hello. Yeah, hello, and thanks for taking my questions. So, the first one is on Ilva. There has been some developments recently which have forced you to issue a press release. Can you perhaps give us some sense of the next milestone there, and when we will get more clarity on the financial impact? I assume you haven't provisioned any amount at this stage, right?
Speaker #6: Hi
Speaker #6: Max .
Speaker #3: Yeah . Hello . Yeah , hello .
Speaker #3: My questions, and thanks for that. So, the first one is on Ilva. There have been developments recently which have forced you to issue a press release.
Speaker #3: There is also fund that is fund that is being created to support exports Europe . Right . And how we can steel companies in Europe so that they can continue to export product globally .
Speaker #3: Can you perhaps give sense of the next milestones ? There ? And . when we will get
Speaker #3: clarity on the more financial impact ? I assume you haven't provisioned any stage amount at this , right Hi , ?
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Hi, Max. Yeah, so look, I mean, you have our response there, right? And you referred to the press release, and that's the right place to go. And you're absolutely right. So we have no provisions for that. We don't believe that it's the case. It has any merit. So there are no provisions in our books. In terms of timing, I mean, we'll see. But when we speak with our lawyers, it's likely that it may last for a couple of years. So we will, of course, update you as and when there are new developments, but it should take some time.
Genuino Christino: Yeah. Hi, Max. Yeah, so look, I mean, you have our response there, right? And you referred to the press release, and that's the right place to go. And you're absolutely right. So we have no provisions for that. We don't believe that it's the case. It has any merit. So there are no provisions in our books. In terms of timing, I mean, we'll see. But when we speak with our lawyers, it's likely that it may last for a couple of years. So we will, of course, update you as and when there are new developments, but it should take some time.
Speaker #3: And the then third aspect is circumvention . So their is circumvention legislation . And we need to make sure that there is no resource shuffling and circumvention that occurs at this point in time .
Speaker #1: Yeah . Hi , Max . Yeah . So look , I mean , you have the response there , the press release right ?
Speaker #1: the right place to go . And . Absolutely we have no You We that . believe that don't we it's the case . It's it's has merit .
Speaker #3: We have that clearly . The default values are in place . Certain companies through actual values , but fundamentally , so far we have not seen that .
Speaker #1: So there are no no provisions our any in And in books . terms of mean , see . we'll timing , I But when we speak with our lawyers , it's likely that it last for a couple of years .
Speaker #7: Okay , very clear . And the last one is on the just as the greenfield . So India construction is getting nearer we , or think about this , will it be .
Speaker #1: So may we will of , update and you as when there are new developments . But it be should take some time should
Speaker #7: Self-funded or through financing bank lines as a previous phases of were done it be partly funded by ? Or will equity injections from the shareholders , in which case are you going to include them in your CapEx guidance ?
Max Kogge: Okay. The second question is on CBAM. Can you, Viraj, give us a bit of your initial feedback on the first months of implementation? Do you still see some circumvention going through the system? It seems also there was some import front-loading rate of CBAM at the end of last year. So, does it mean that the most of the impact from CBAM, in terms of pricing, is yet to come?
Genuino Christino: Okay. The second question is on CBAM. Can you, Viraj, give us a bit of your initial feedback on the first months of implementation? Do you still see some circumvention going through the system? It seems also there was some import front-loading rate of CBAM at the end of last year. So, does it mean that the most of the impact from CBAM, in terms of pricing, is yet to come?
Speaker #1: .
Speaker #3: Second question is on Can you give us Cbam . a Okay . of your initial feedback on the first months implementation ? bit Do you still of some see circumvention going through the was some It also , there input loading ahead of Cbam at the end of last year .
Speaker #3: a great Yeah . Look , question . we are We focused at ArcelorMittal on minimizing funding , both costs at ArcelorMittal and joint So we will make sure the capital our structures that we put in place , both in India and ArcelorMittal that to the extent have support further news on that , to with you in terms of ventures .
Speaker #3: So system ? does it mean that the most of the impact from Cbam in pricing is yet to come seems ?
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, that's a great question. So I'll address parts of your question. In terms of the front loading of the CBAM, the CBAM came into effect 1 January 2026. However, as per the legislation, it's for product, which is produced before 1 January 2026, does not have any CO2 cost, right? So the product may arrive in January or February, but as long as it was produced in December 2025, there's no CBAM effect. So you don't see it in the January numbers. However, we are seeing it now, because import offers are including CBAM costs. And as you can see in Europe, there has been a change in the spot pricing of steel, and that is reflecting... some of it is reflecting the CBAM effect.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, that's a great question. So I'll address parts of your question. In terms of the front loading of the CBAM, the CBAM came into effect 1 January 2026. However, as per the legislation, it's for product, which is produced before 1 January 2026, does not have any CO2 cost, right? So the product may arrive in January or February, but as long as it was produced in December 2025, there's no CBAM effect. So you don't see it in the January numbers. However, we are seeing it now, because import offers are including CBAM costs. And as you can see in Europe, there has been a change in the spot pricing of steel, and that is reflecting... some of it is reflecting the CBAM effect.
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #2: That's a that's a great So question . I'll address other parts of your question in of front the the the terms loading of cbam , the into effect first Jan 2026 .
Speaker #3: CapEx share guidance or others , we will obviously you at this point time . We are in focused on achieving groundbreaking , achieving the key milestones , and then we will come back and you on how minimizing report to we are costs .
Speaker #3: update That's good .
Speaker #2: However , as per the it's for is legislation , product , which before before first Jan any . Right ? So the product may arrive in cost or long but as as it was no cbam effect .
Speaker #3: funding
Speaker #7: Yes . Thank you
Speaker #7: .
Speaker #8: Yeah
Speaker #8: .
Speaker #6: Thanks , Max . So that was our last question . So I'll hand back overall to you for any closing .
Speaker #3: Great Okay .
Speaker #3: . Thank you Thank you everyone for time remarks to taking the join Daniel . us . I hope the discussions gave you a sense clear of the progress we are making and the confidence we have in the road .
Speaker #2: So you don't see it December 2025 , there's in the January However , produced in numbers . we are seeing it now because import offers are including cbam cost and as you in can see Europe there has been a change in the spot pricing of steel that is reflecting reflecting cbam the effect in terms some of it is of your on Feb , circumvention , as you know , there is a also a an activity to further tighten the cbam and topics to spoke address .
Speaker #3: As you all heard , the outlook is policy developments are ahead creating the foundations for a balanced fairer and positive more Our investments market .
Aditya Mittal: In terms of your question on circumvention, as you know, there is also an activity to further tighten the CBAM, and there are a few topics to address. I spoke about, I think, Timna asked a question on downstream. I spoke about the downstream. There is a review on what to do for CBAM for downstream. There is also a fund that is being created to support exports from Europe, right? And how we can support steel companies in Europe so that they can continue to export product globally. And then the third aspect is circumvention. So there is circumvention legislation, and we need to make sure that there is no resource shuffling and circumvention that occurs. At this point in time, we have not seen that. Clearly, the default values are in place.
Aditya Mittal: In terms of your question on circumvention, as you know, there is also an activity to further tighten the CBAM, and there are a few topics to address. I spoke about, I think, Timna asked a question on downstream. I spoke about the downstream. There is a review on what to do for CBAM for downstream. There is also a fund that is being created to support exports from Europe, right? And how we can support steel companies in Europe so that they can continue to export product globally. And then the third aspect is circumvention. So there is circumvention legislation, and we need to make sure that there is no resource shuffling and circumvention that occurs. At this point in time, we have not seen that. Clearly, the default values are in place.
Speaker #3: , particularly those supporting the energy transition delivering tangible returns and positioning us for long term value creation . As I said right at opening , what the of this and what is the foundation of all this is our people across the underpins all company .
Speaker #2: , to ask a question I few about on there are a downstream . I spoke downstream . about the is a There review on what to do downstream .
Speaker #3: operational commitment to I see a deep excellence , to innovation , to a safer and more competitive ArcelorMittal . This gives me confidence that great continue our differentiated strategy executing to safely our ArcelorMittal and create value for all our , are stakeholders .
Speaker #2: also fund that There is is is being fund that created to Cbam Europe for from . Right exports . And how we can support steel companies in Europe so can continue to export product .
Speaker #2: And then the third aspect is circumvention . So there globally legislation and make sure we need to that there is no resource shuffling and that circumvention occurs point in at this time .
Speaker #3: Thank you once again . With that , grow I will close today's call and I look forward to speaking with you again soon .
Speaker #2: have not seen that We clearly . The default in that they place values are companies will through work values , actual fundamentally , so far we have not seen that .
Aditya Mittal: Certain companies will work through actual values. But fundamentally, so far, we have not seen that.
Aditya Mittal: Certain companies will work through actual values. But fundamentally, so far, we have not seen that.
Max Kogge: Okay. Very clear. And just the last one is on the India greenfield. So as the construction is getting nearer, how should we think about its financing? Will it be self-funded or through bank lines as previous phases of the development were done? Or will it be partly funded by equity injections from the shareholders, in which case, are you going to include them in your CapEx guidance?
Max Jousma: Okay. Very clear. And just the last one is on the India greenfield. So as the construction is getting nearer, how should we think about its financing? Will it be self-funded or through bank lines as previous phases of the development were done? Or will it be partly funded by equity injections from the shareholders, in which case, are you going to include them in your CapEx guidance?
Speaker #3: Okay , clear . And very last one is on the greenfield . So as the construction is getting nearer , or should this we , financing , will it be self-funded or through bank a lines phases of the think about were done , or development will it be partly funded injections equity from the as shareholders , in which previous are you case going to include them in your CapEx guidance by India
Speaker #3: Okay , clear . And very last one is on the greenfield . So as the construction is getting nearer , or should this we , financing , will it be self-funded or through bank a lines phases of the think about were done , or development will it be partly funded injections equity from the as shareholders , in which previous are you case going to include them in your CapEx guidance by India
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, look, great question. We are focused at ArcelorMittal on minimizing funding costs, both at ArcelorMittal and our joint ventures. So we will make sure the capital structures that we put in place, both in India and ArcelorMittal, support that. To the extent that we have further news on that to share with you in terms of CapEx guidance or others, we will obviously update you. At this point in time, we are focused on achieving groundbreaking, achieving the key milestones, and then we will come back and report to you on how we are minimizing overall funding costs.
Aditya Mittal: Yeah, look, great question. We are focused at ArcelorMittal on minimizing funding costs, both at ArcelorMittal and our joint ventures. So we will make sure the capital structures that we put in place, both in India and ArcelorMittal, support that. To the extent that we have further news on that to share with you in terms of CapEx guidance or others, we will obviously update you. At this point in time, we are focused on achieving groundbreaking, achieving the key milestones, and then we will come back and report to you on how we are minimizing overall funding costs.
Speaker #5: Yeah . a great .
Speaker #5: Yeah . a great . Look ,
Speaker #2: we We but
Speaker #2: focused at minimizing funding ArcelorMittal on costs , both at ? our joint ventures . ArcelorMittal and we will make sure capital the structures that we put in both in India and ArcelorMittal place , So that to we support have further news on , to that you in share with CapEx guidance or we will update you at this point in time .
Speaker #2: focused at minimizing funding ArcelorMittal on costs , both at ? our joint ventures . ArcelorMittal and we will make sure capital the structures that we put in both in India and ArcelorMittal place , So that to we support have further news on , to that you in share with CapEx guidance or we will update you at this point in terms of others , achieving groundbreaking , achieving the key milestones we will back report to how we are minimizing funding overall on .
Max Kogge: Yes, that's clear. Thank you.
Max Jousma: Yes, that's clear. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Yeah . That's good . .
Speaker #3: Thank costs
Speaker #3: you
Genuino Christino: Great. Thanks, Max. So that, Aditya, was our last question, so I'll hand back to you for any closing remarks.
Genuino Christino: Great. Thanks, Max. So that, Aditya, was our last question, so I'll hand back to you for any closing remarks.
Speaker #5: .
Speaker #6: Great . Max . that So was our last hand back to you question . for any closing
Aditya Mittal: Okay, great. Thank you, Daniel. Thank you, everyone, for taking the time to join us. I hope the discussions gave you a clear sense of the progress we are making and the confidence we have in the road ahead. As you all heard, the outlook is positive. Policy developments are creating the foundations for a fairer and more balanced market. Our investments, particularly those supporting the energy transition, are delivering tangible returns and positioning us for long-term value creation. As I said, right at the opening, what underpins all of this and what is the foundation of all this is our people. Across the company, I see a deep commitment to operational excellence, to innovation, to building a safer and more competitive ArcelorMittal. This gives me great confidence that we can continue executing our differentiated strategy to safely grow ArcelorMittal and create value for all our stakeholders.
Aditya Mittal: Okay, great. Thank you, Daniel. Thank you, everyone, for taking the time to join us. I hope the discussions gave you a clear sense of the progress we are making and the confidence we have in the road ahead. As you all heard, the outlook is positive. Policy developments are creating the foundations for a fairer and more balanced market. Our investments, particularly those supporting the energy transition, are delivering tangible returns and positioning us for long-term value creation. As I said, right at the opening, what underpins all of this and what is the foundation of all this is our people. Across the company, I see a deep commitment to operational excellence, to innovation, to building a safer and more competitive ArcelorMittal. This gives me great confidence that we can continue executing our differentiated strategy to safely grow ArcelorMittal and create value for all our stakeholders.
Speaker #5: Great .
Speaker #2: Thank you, thank you everyone. Daniel, thank you for taking the time to join us. I hope that you have a sense of the progress we're making and the clear confidence we have.
Speaker #2: As you road heard , the outlook positive policy all the for a discussions gave market . Our investments balanced , particularly those supporting is the transition , are delivering tangible positioning long term us for value creation
Speaker #2: . As I said right at the what underpins all of this what is the and returns our people across the opening , company .
Speaker #2: I see a deep commitment to operational excellence , to Thanks , to innovation , more competitive ArcelorMittal gives me safer and confidence that .
Speaker #2: Executing our differentiated strategy, we can once again create value and grow our metals and energy business. Thank you for that. With that, I will close the call, and I look forward to speaking with you all again soon.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you once again. With that, I will close today's call, and I look forward to speaking with you again soon.
Aditya Mittal: Thank you once again. With that, I will close today's call, and I look forward to speaking with you again soon.
