Q1 2026 ASML Holding NV Earnings Call

April 15, 2026

Operator: Good day, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2026 Q1 Financial Results Conference Call on 15 April 2026. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's introduction, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: After the speaker's introduction, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star, one, and one on your telephone.

Speaker #1: You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Speaker #1: I would now like to end the conference call. Over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML CEO, Christophe Fouquet, and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

Jim Kavanagh: Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML CEO, Christophe Fouquet, and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2026 Q1 results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order in which they were received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

Speaker #2: The subject of today's call is ASML's 2026 first quarter results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order in which they are received.

Speaker #2: This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

Speaker #2: Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

Speaker #2: These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at www.asml.com, as well as in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Jim Kavanagh: For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at www.asml.com, and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.

Speaker #2: With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.

Speaker #3: Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first-quarter 2026 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first-quarter 2026 results, as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you, Jim. Welcome everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q1 of 2026 Results Conference Call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentaries on the Q1 2026 results, as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?

Speaker #3: Roger?

Speaker #2: Thank you, Christoph, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the first quarter 2026 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the second quarter of 2026.

Roger Dassen: Thank you, Christophe, and welcome everyone. I will first review the Q1 2026 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on Q2 2026. Let me start with our Q1 accomplishments. In Q1 2026, total net sales were EUR 8.8 billion, which is within our guidance. Net system sales were at EUR 6.3 billion, which includes over EUR 4.1 billion from EUV system sales, including sales from two high-end systems, and over EUR 2.1 billion from non-EUV system sales. Net system sales were almost equally split between logic, at 49%, and memory, at 51%. Installed base management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 2.5 billion, slightly above our guidance. Gross margin for the quarter was at the high end of our guidance at 53%, primarily due to the contribution of very high-margin components within our installed base business. On operating expenses, we came in as guided.

Speaker #2: Let me start with our first quarter accomplishments. In the first quarter of 2026, total net sales were 8.8 billion euros, which is within our guidance.

Speaker #2: Net systems sales were €6.3 billion, which includes over €4.1 billion from EUV system sales, including sales from two Hyenae systems, and over €2.1 billion from non-EUV system sales.

Speaker #2: Net systems sales were almost equally split between Logic, at 49%, and Memory, at 51%. Installed base management sales for the quarter came in at 2.5 billion euros, slightly above our guidance.

Speaker #2: Gross margin for the quarter was at the high end of our guidance at 53%, primarily due to the contribution of very high-margin components within our installed base business.

Speaker #2: On operating expenses, we came in as guided. R&D expenses were rounded at €1.2 billion, and SG&A expenses came in at €0.3 billion.

Roger Dassen: Our R&D expenses were rounded at EUR 1.2 billion, and SG&A expenses came in at EUR 0.3 billion. The effective tax rate for Q1 was 17.1%. For the full year 2026, the expected annualized effective tax rate is around 17%. Net income in Q1 was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 31.4% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.15. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended Q1 with cash equivalents, and short-term investments at a level of EUR 8.4 billion. Our Q1 free cash flow was EUR -2.6 billion, largely driven by the timing of down payments. With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for Q2 2026. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR 8.4 and 9 billion. We expect our Q2 installed base management sales to be around EUR 2.5 billion.

Speaker #2: The effective tax rate for Q1 was 17.1%. For the full year 2026, we expect the annualized effective tax rate to be around 17%. Net income in Q1 was €2.8 billion, representing 31.4% of total net sales and resulting in earnings per share of €7.15.

Speaker #2: Turning to the balance sheets, we ended the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at a level of €8.4 billion. Our Q1 free cash flow was negative €2.6 billion, largely driven by the timing of down payments.

Speaker #2: With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between 8.4 billion euros and 9 billion euros.

Speaker #2: We expect our Q2 installed base management sales to be around €2.5 billion. Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 51 and 52 percent.

Roger Dassen: Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 51% and 52%. The expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around EUR 1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 0.3 billion. Moving to our cash return to our shareholders. In Q1, ASML paid the third interim dividend over 2025 of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share. ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2025 of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share, which is a 17% increase compared to 2024. Recognizing the three interim dividends of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share paid in 2025 and 2026, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the annual general meeting of EUR 2.70 per ordinary share. In Q1 2026, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR 1.1 billion. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.

Speaker #2: The expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around €1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around €0.3 billion. Moving to our cash return to our shareholders, in Q1, ASML paid the third interim dividend over 2025 of €1.60 per ordinary share.

Speaker #2: ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2025 of €7.50 per ordinary share, which is a 17% increase compared to 2024.

Speaker #2: Recognizing the three interim dividends of €1.60 per ordinary share paid in '25 and '26, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting of €2.70 per ordinary share.

Speaker #2: In Q1, 2026, we purchased shares for a total amount of around 1.1 billion euros. And with that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christoph.

Speaker #3: Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we finished the first quarter with good financial results. Looking ahead, with respect to the market, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry continues to solidify.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we finished Q1 with good financial reserves. Looking ahead with respect to the market, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry continues to solidify, driven primarily by AI-related infrastructure investment. These investments are increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips in many areas, and for the foreseeable future, demand will continue to outpace supply. This creates constraints across end markets from AI, mobile, and PCs, which is driving our customer to aggressively add capacity. In the memory business, many customers have commented that they are sold out for the remaining of the year, and that they expect the supply limitation to persist beyond 2026, despite their plans to add significant capacity.

Speaker #3: Driven primarily by AI-related infrastructure investment. These investments are increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips in many areas. And for the foreseeable future, demand will continue to outpace supply.

Speaker #3: This creates constraints across end markets, from AI to mobile and PCs, which is driving our customers to aggressively add capacity. In the memory business, many customers have commented that they are sold out for the remainder of the year.

Speaker #3: And that they expect the supply limitation to persist beyond 2026, despite their plans to add significant capacity. In the logic business, our customers are adding capacity across multiple advanced nodes to support demand, while continuing to ramp the two-nanometer node in support of next-generation HPC and mobile applications.

Christophe Fouquet: In the Logic business, our customers are adding capacity across multiple advanced nodes to support demand, while continuing to ramp the 2nm node in support of next-generation HPC and mobile application. We also expect supply limitation across those advanced nodes beyond 2026. Both our Memory and Logic customers are responding to this unprecedented demand by increasing capital expenditures and accelerating capacity expansion plans this year and beyond. Those investments are supported by long-term agreement with their own customer. In addition to expanding capacity, both advanced DRAM and Logic customers continue to further adopt EUV and immersion DUV on new process nodes, which further increases their demand for lithography. As a result, ASML's order intake continues to be very strong, and we stay closely aligned with our customers to support their needs.

Speaker #3: They also expect supply limitation across those advanced nodes beyond 2026. Both our memory and logic customers are responding to this unprecedented demand by increasing capital expenditures and accelerating capacity expansion plans this year and beyond.

Speaker #3: Those investments are supported by long-term agreements with their own customer. In addition to expanding capacity, both advanced DRAM and logic customers continue to further adopt EUV and immersion deep UV on new process nodes, which further increases their demand for lithography.

Speaker #3: As a result, ASML's ordering tech continues to be very strong. And we stay closely aligned with our customers to support their needs. At the same time, we offer customers productivity upgrade for their installed base to increase their short-term output requirements.

Christophe Fouquet: At the same time, we offer customers productivity upgrade for their installed base to increase their short-term output requirements. Turning to our capacity expansion plan for 2026, we are executing on an output plan of at least 60 Low-NA EUV system, despite a slow start, as discussed last quarter, driving output of our immersion system close to that in 2025. Based on these developments in demand and order intake, we are quarter-by-quarter increasing the move rates for our HBM product, raising Low-NA EUV capacity to at least 80 system next year and scaling DUV and application products in alignment. We continue to see a strong year ahead and expect ASML to grow in 2026.

Speaker #3: Turning to our capacity expansion plan for 2026, we are executing on an output plan of at least 60 low-NA EUV systems. And despite a slow start, as discussed last quarter, driving output of our immersion system close to that in 2025.

Speaker #3: Based on this developments in demand and order intake, we are quarter by quarter increasing the move rates for our HBM product. Raising low-NA EUV capacity to at least 80 systems next year and scaling deep UV and application products in alignment.

Speaker #3: We continue to see a strong year ahead and expect ASML to grow in 2026. We are therefore updating our 2026 guidance, both narrowing and increasing the expected revenue range to between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros, while maintaining our expectation of a gross margin between 51% and 53%.

Christophe Fouquet: We are therefore updating our 2026 guidance, both narrowing and increasing the expected revenue range to between EUR 36 and 40 billion, while maintaining our expectation of a gross margin between 51% and 53%, with revenue weighted to H2 of the year. As we said last quarter, EUV revenue is expected to rise significantly this year, driven by the dynamics in advanced logic and DRAM markets mentioned earlier. For non-EUV revenue, we previously expected this to be similar to last year, but given continued demand momentum, we now expect growth as a result of customer adding more DUV lithography to support their expansion plans. We also expect install base management revenue to grow significantly this year, driven by service revenue from our expanding EUV install base and customer demand for performance upgrades to support their increasing capacity requirements.

Speaker #3: With revenue weighted to the second half of the year. As we said last quarter, EUV revenue is expected to rise significantly this year, driven by the dynamics in advanced logic and DRAM markets mentioned earlier.

Speaker #3: For non-EUV revenue, we previously expected this to be similar to last year, but given continued demand momentum, we now expect growth as a result of customers adding more deep UV lithography to support their expansion plans.

Speaker #3: We also expect installed base management revenue to grow significantly this year, driven by service revenue from our expanding EUV installed base and customer demand for performance upgrades to support their increasing capacity requirements.

Speaker #3: We expect that the bandwidth in our 2026 guidance accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export control. Turning to technology, we continue to make very good progress on this front, with several developments recently highlighted at the SPIE Advanced Lithography and Patterning Conference this February in San Jose.

Christophe Fouquet: We expect that the bandwidth in our 2026 guidance accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export control. Turning to technology, we continue to make very good progress on this front, with several developments recently highlighted at the SPIE Advanced Lithography + Patterning Conference this February in San José. At the conference, we presented an updated Low-NA EUV productivity roadmap that reflects improvement to both our short-term and long-term plans for these products. This includes the ability to reach at least 330 wafers per hour on Low-NA EUV at the start of the next decade, enabled in large part by our continued source power improvement, as evidenced by our recent 1,000W source demonstration. In the short term, all NXE:3800E systems can benefit from an upgrade that provides an increase of 10 wafers per hour, with 230 wafers per hour available immediately to all customers.

Speaker #3: At the conference, we presented an updated low-NA EUV productive roadmap that reflects improvement to both our short-term and long-term plans for these products. This includes the ability to reach at least 330 wafer per hour on low-NA EUV at the start of the next decade, enabled in large part by our continued source power improvement as evidenced by our recent 1,000-watt source demonstration.

Christophe Fouquet: This includes the ability to reach at least 330 wafers per hour on Low-NA EUV at the start of the next decade, enabled in large part by our continued source power improvement, as evidenced by our recent 1,000W source demonstration. In the short term, all NXE:3800E systems can benefit from an upgrade that provides an increase of 10 wafers per hour, with 230 wafers per hour available immediately to all customers.

Speaker #3: In the short term, all NXE:3800E systems can benefit from an upgrade that provides an increase of 10 wafers per hour, with 230 wafers per hour available immediately to all customers.

Speaker #3: For our NXE3800F system, we have raised the wafer per hour specification from 250 wafers to 260 wafers per hour. We plan to start shipping that system in 2027, with full volume slated for 2028.

Christophe Fouquet: For NXE:3800F system, we have raised the wafer per hour specification from 250 wafer to 260 wafers per hours. We plan to start shipping that system in 2027, with full volume slated for 2028. We also share that the High-NA platform has now processed over half a million wafers and achieved over 80% availability. Also at the conference, we saw customers presenting several strong papers highlighting their progress with High-NA. These presentations demonstrated use cases in both logic and in DRAM, in which a single High-NA exposure can replace complex multi-patterning processes that today require three or four Low-NA exposures. For some critical layers, High-NA can reduce the number of process steps by a factor of 10. The progress being made throughout the ecosystem, especially with resist, allow us to target line and pitches of 80nm for logic and contact pitches below 28nm for DRAM.

Speaker #3: We also shared that the INA platform has now processed over half a million wafers and achieved over 80% availability. Also at the conference, we saw customers presenting several strong papers highlighting their progress with INA.

Speaker #3: These presentations demonstrated use cases in both logic and in DRAM in which a single INA exposure can replace complex multi-patterning processes that today require three or four low-NA exposures.

Speaker #3: For some critical layers, INA can reduce the number of process steps by a factor of 10. The progress being made throughout the ecosystem, especially with RESIST, allows us to target line and space pitches of 80 nanometers for logic and contact pitches below 28 nanometers for DRAM.

Christophe Fouquet: This means that High-NA can support single expose for at least three nodes in logic and DRAM. We continue to work to further mature the platform alongside our customer as they start to test the technology on product wafers and move closer to bringing High-NA into high volume manufacturing. Looking more broadly, what we have seen over the past few months has further confirmed our view on the positive impact of AI on customer demand for our advanced product, and especially for our EUV system in both advanced memory and logic. We see the end market dynamics supporting a shift in product mix towards more demand for our advanced lithography product and an increase in litho intensity. Our strong productivity roadmap on Low-NA, in combination with the introduction of High-NA, supports further cost of technology reduction for our customer. In summary, demand remains strong for the entire product portfolio.

Speaker #3: This means that INA can support single exposure for at least three nodes in logic and DRAM. We continue to work to further mature the platform alongside our customer as they start to test the technology on product wafers and move closer to bringing INA into high-volume manufacturing.

Speaker #3: Looking more broadly, what we have seen over the past few months has further confirmed our view on the positive impact of AI on customer demand for our advanced product.

Speaker #3: And especially for our EUV system, in both advanced memory and logic, we see the end-market dynamic supporting a shift in product mix towards more demand for our advanced lithography products and an increase in litho intensity.

Christophe Fouquet: We see the end market dynamics supporting a shift in product mix towards more demand for our advanced lithography product and an increase in litho intensity. Our strong productivity roadmap on Low-NA, in combination with the introduction of High-NA, supports further cost of technology reduction for our customer. In summary, demand remains strong for the entire product portfolio. With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Speaker #3: Our strong productivity roadmap on low-NA in combination with the introduction of INA supports for the cost of technology reduction for our customer. In summary, demand remains strong for the entire product portfolio.

Speaker #3: With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Christophe Fouquet: With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Speaker #1: Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christoph. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary.

Jim Kavanagh: Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. The Operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask you to kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get through as many callers as possible. Now, Operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

Speaker #1: This will allow us to get through as many callers as possible. Now, operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

Speaker #2: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

Jim Kavanagh: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now take the first question. Your first question today comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now take the first question. Your first question today comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now take the first question. And your first question today comes from the line of Joe Katracki from Wells Fargo.

Speaker #2: Please go ahead.

Speaker #3: Yeah, thanks for taking the question. Maybe I'll just start with the updated 2026 revenue guide. You talked about taking up your immersion outlook and your DUV outlook.

Joe Quatrochi: Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. Maybe I just start with the updated 2026 revenue guide. You talked about taking up your immersion outlook and your DUV outlook. How much of that is coming from China versus non-China? Did the EUV outlook change at all?

Speaker #3: How much of that is coming from China versus non-China? And did the EUV outlook change at all?

Christophe Fouquet: Hi, Joe, it's Roger. This is primarily non-China when it comes to immersion. China remains at the midpoint around 20%. That's the expectation that we have for the China business. That view has not changed. What has changed here is, as we mentioned on the last call, we were looking at immersion and said, given the supply chain situation and immersion, we said, we doubt whether we can get immersion to the level that we had last year. We've been working extremely hard, and right now we're at the point where we believe we can get immersion close to the levels that we had last year, and that would primarily flow to the non-Chinese customers. That's where it's at. That's a major driver of the uptick and also in EUV. We believe there is a bit more that can be done.

Roger Dassen: Hi, Joe, it's Roger. This is primarily non-China when it comes to immersion. China remains at the midpoint around 20%. That's the expectation that we have for the China business. That view has not changed. What has changed here is, as we mentioned on the last call, we were looking at immersion and said, given the supply chain situation and immersion, we said, we doubt whether we can get immersion to the level that we had last year.

Speaker #4: It's Hydro, it's Roger. This is primarily non-China when it comes to immersion. China remains at the midpoint, around 20%. That's the expectation that we have for the China business, so that view has not changed.

Speaker #4: What has changed here is, as we mentioned on the last call, we were looking at immersion and said, given the supply chain situation and immersion, we doubted whether we could get immersion to the level that we had last year.

Speaker #4: We've been working extremely hard, and right now, we're at the point where we believe we can get immersion close to the levels that we had last year.

Roger Dassen: We've been working extremely hard, and right now we're at the point where we believe we can get immersion close to the levels that we had last year, and that would primarily flow to the non-Chinese customers. That's where it's at. That's a major driver of the uptick and also in EUV. We believe there is a bit more that can be done. It's in that combination and, as you can see from our achievements and also our expectation for the install base business, that one is strong as well. I would say it's actually a combination, but clearly immersion is an important part of the uptick of the guidance.

Speaker #4: And that would primarily flow to the non-Chinese customers. So that's where it's at. So that's a major driver of the uptick. And also, in EUV, we believe there is a bit more that can be done.

Speaker #4: So it's in that combination and as you can see from our achievements and also our expectation for the install-based business, that one is strong as well.

Christophe Fouquet: It's in that combination and, as you can see from our achievements and also our expectation for the install base business, that one is strong as well. I would say it's actually a combination, but clearly immersion is an important part of the uptick of the guidance.

Speaker #4: So, I would say it's actually a combination, but clearly immersion is an important part of the uptick of the guidance.

Joe Quatrochi: That's helpful. Just as a follow-up, on the gross margin, just the range not changing, but clearly immersion increasing, I know that's a bit higher gross margin. Just any puts and takes there of why the gross margin guide stays the same for 2026?

Speaker #3: That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, on the gross margin—just the range not changing, but clearly immersion increasing. I know that that's a bit higher gross margin.

Speaker #3: Just any puts and takes there of why the gross margin guide stays the same for '26?

Speaker #4: Yeah, you're right. I mean, for the entire year, the gross margin remains in spite of a bit more immersion. But it's also clear that we're increasing the move rate quite a bit.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, you're right. For the entire year, the gross margin remains in spite of a bit more immersion. It's also clear that we're increasing the move rate quite a bit. Of course, increasing the move rate means that you're hiring people. Hiring people, training people, that also costs a bit of money. Every ramp, you always have a little bit of cost before you have the benefit of that. That's the other side of the equation. That's why we believe that, the guidance range as we have it, taking into consideration all the puts and takes, we believe keeping it as we articulated a quarter ago is the right way to go.

Roger Dassen: Yeah, you're right. For the entire year, the gross margin remains in spite of a bit more immersion. It's also clear that we're increasing the move rate quite a bit. Of course, increasing the move rate means that you're hiring people. Hiring people, training people, that also costs a bit of money. Every ramp, you always have a little bit of cost before you have the benefit of that. That's the other side of the equation. That's why we believe that, the guidance range as we have it, taking into consideration all the puts and takes, we believe keeping it as we articulated a quarter ago is the right way to go.

Speaker #4: Of course, increasing the move rate means that you're hiring people, hiring people, training people. That also costs a bit of money. So every ramp, you always have a little bit of cost before you have the benefit of that.

Speaker #4: So that's the other side of the equation. So that's why we believe that the guidance range as we have it taken into consideration all the puts and takes, we believe keeping it as we articulated the quarter ago is the right way to go.

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Joe Quatrochi: Thank you.

Speaker #4: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: You're welcome.

Roger Dassen: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Chris Sanker from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, Roger or Christophe, I'm kind of curious—what is the visibility you're getting from your customers?

Krish Sankar: Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, Roger, Christophe, I'm kind of curious. What is the visibility you're getting from your customers? Does that extend into 2028? Based on that, how to think about ASML's growth profile in 2027 and 2028, either qualitatively or quantitatively?

Speaker #5: Does that extend into 2028? And based on that, how should we think about ASML’s growth profile in 2027 and 2028, either qualitatively or quantitatively?

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think 2028 is still quite far away, and I think a lot of the discussion we have with our customer today are still a bit about 2026. As Roger mentioned, we're still working hard even for 2026, with our customer to make sure we deliver what they need. Of course, a lot of discussion are moving to 2027, which is also why we are also there, working very hard to increase the capacity. 2028 is a bit too far away, I think.

Speaker #4: Well, I think 2028 is still quite far away. And I think a lot of the discussion we have with our customer today is still a bit about 2026, as Roger mentioned.

Speaker #4: We're still working hard even for 2026 with our customer to make sure we deliver what they need. And of course, a lot of discussion now moving to 2027, which is also why we are also there working very hard to increase the capacity.

Speaker #4: But 2028 is a bit too far away, I think.

Krish Sankar: Is there a way to think about 2027 at this moment, Christophe?

Speaker #3: Is there a way to think about '27 at this moment, Christoph, or?

Speaker #4: Well, I think we mentioned already that we are growing our move rate every quarter. So, I think we are still in a dynamic where we believe that we have to create more space for our customer.

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think we mentioned already that we are growing our move rate every quarter. I think we are still in a dynamic where we believe that we have to create more space for our customer. I think we've explained in our introduction that we are preparing to build at least 80 Low-NA EUV system next year. I think these are the sign, if you need any, that, of course, the discussion we have about 2027 are currently around making sure that we have enough capacity for our customers.

Speaker #4: I think we've explained in our introduction that we are preparing to build at least 80 low-NA EUV systems next year. So I think these are the signs if you need any that, of course, the discussion we have about 2027 are currently around making sure that we have enough capacity for our customers.

Krish Sankar: Got it. As a quick follow-up, I think you mentioned how you are under-shipping demand today. If you start looking at 2027 and 80 unit capacity for Low-NA, are you meeting demand? Are you still under-shipping demand at 80 units next year?

Speaker #3: Got it. And then, as a quick follow-up, I think you mentioned how you are under-shipping demand today. If you start looking at '27 and 80-unit capacity for low-NA, are you meeting demand?

Speaker #3: Are you still under-shipping demand at 80 units next year?

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think all those discussion, and I think the number we shared today are, I would say, the results of very close discussion with our customers. We talked about at least 80 because those discussions are still ongoing. I think you have seen, of course, the dynamic in the last couple of quarters. I think we said that also last quarter, we were working every day very closely with our customer to make sure basically that we stay in line with what they need. I think we have, of course, a very strong mission to meet their demand. That's what those number reflects. I think that's the results of where our discussion are today.

Speaker #4: Well, I think all those discussions and I think the number we shared today are I will say the resource of very close discussion with our customers.

Speaker #4: We talked about at least 80, because those discussions are still ongoing. I think you have seen, of course, the dynamic in the last couple of quarters.

Speaker #4: So I think we say that also last quarter, we were working every, very every day, very closely with our customer to make sure, basically, that we stay in line with what they need.

Speaker #4: I think we have, of course, a very strong mission to meet their demand, so that's what those numbers reflect. I think that's the resource of where our discussions are today.

Krish Sankar: Thanks a lot, Christophe.

Speaker #3: Thanks a lot, Christoph.

Christophe Fouquet: You're welcome.

Speaker #4: You're welcome.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of CJ Mews from Contour, Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Yeah, good morning. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, first question going back to gross margins. And if we isolate March versus June—March, your revenue too high in A, zero, I think, embedded in June—and so I get kind of the upgrades as a real positive for March.

CJ Muse: Yeah, good morning, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess first question, going back to gross margins. If we isolate March versus June, March, you revenue 2 High-NA, 0, I think embedded in June. I get kind of the upgrades as a real positive for March, but I would have thought the higher Low-NA EUV and immersion would have led to higher gross margins. I understand you're adding headcount, but that still seems pretty severe. Wondering if there's anything else in that mix that's driving that change.

Speaker #5: But I would have thought the higher low-NA EUV and immersion would have led to higher gross margins. I understand you're adding headcount, but that still seems pretty severe.

Speaker #5: So, wondering if there's anything else in that mix that's driving that change.

Roger Dassen: No, there's nothing in the mix really, CJ. It really is down to the elements that you just referred to, a few puts and takes, but the primary ones being the very high-margin elements in the upgrade business that we had in Q1. We're not counting on such a strong pattern in the upgrade business in Q2. That's an important element, indeed, to the point that I made earlier on, the increase in headcount that we're going through to prepare for optics and for upgrades in the move rate. It's really those elements as a result of which we're now narrowing the bandwidth for this particular quarter to 51 and 52. Of course, you would see that H2, that volume is more skewed towards H2, right, if you look at our guidance?

Speaker #4: No, there's nothing in the mix really, CJ. It really is down to the elements that you just referred to. So a few put and takes, puts and takes, but the primary ones being the very high margin elements in the upgrade business that we had in Q1.

Speaker #4: We're not counting on such a strong pattern in the upgrade business in Q2, so that's an important element. And then indeed, to the point that I made earlier on, the increase in headcount that we're going through to prepare for upticks in upgrades and the move rate.

Speaker #4: So, it's really those elements as a result of which we're now narrowing the bandwidth. But this particular quarter, we were to 51 and 52.

Roger Dassen: It's really those elements as a result of which we're now narrowing the bandwidth for this particular quarter to 51 and 52. Of course, you would see that H2, that volume is more skewed towards H2, right, if you look at our guidance? It's also appropriate to see more of the benefits of the increase of the ramp that we're doing in the H2 of the year. As a result of that, we maintain the guidance for the full year at 51% to 53%.

Speaker #4: Of course, you would see that the second half of the year, that volume is more skewed towards the second half of the year, right?

Speaker #4: If you take—if you look at our guidance—so it's also appropriate to see more of the benefits of the increase of the ramp that we're doing in that in the second half of the year.

Roger Dassen: It's also appropriate to see more of the benefits of the increase of the ramp that we're doing in the H2 of the year. As a result of that, we maintain the guidance for the full year at 51% to 53%.

Speaker #4: As a result of that, we maintain the guidance for the full year at 51 to 53 percent.

Speaker #3: Perfect. Makes sense. And I guess as a follow-up, Christophe, to try to talk about the supply side—obviously, under-shipping and demand today. Curious how you're working internally at ASML.

CJ Muse: Perfect. Makes sense. I guess as a follow-up, Christophe, to try to talk about the supply side, obviously undershipping end demand today, curious, how are you working internally at ASML outside of headcount? What kind of things are you doing to help drive productivity and extra supply and also with your supply chain, particularly around the optics and mirror front? What is necessary there? If you are considering 80+ EUV, what does that mean from an immersion unit perspective in 2027? Thanks so much.

Speaker #3: Outside of headcount, what kind of things are you doing to help drive productivity and extra supply? And also, with your supply chain—particularly around the optics and mirror front—what is necessary there?

Speaker #3: And if you are considering 80-plus EUV, what does that mean from an immersion unit perspective in 2027? Thanks so much.

Speaker #4: Yeah. So I think we are working on many, many fronts, I would say. And you mentioned the supply chain. I think we have been mostly explaining the last few years that we were preparing the supply chain basically to be able to go to capability of 90 on low-NA and to a capability of 600 for deep UV, total deep UV.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah. I think we are working on many fronts, I would say. You mentioned the supply chain. I think we have been mostly explaining the last few years that we were preparing the supply chain basically to be able to go to a capability of 90 on Low-NA and to a capability of 600 for total DPUV. I think what we see in these ramps is that a lot of the preparation is paying off. I think that, of course, you always have challenge with the supply chain, but I would say, so far, our supply chain has been able to support our move rate increase quarter-by-quarter. That includes, by the way, ZEISS, to name them. That includes the optic, where I think we had major challenges a few years ago in the previous ramps.

Speaker #4: And I think what we've seen in this ramp is that a lot of the preparation is paying off. So I think that, of course, you always have challenges with the supply chain, but I would say so far, our supply chain has been able to support our move rate increase quarter by quarter.

Speaker #4: And that includes, by the way, ZEISS, to name them. That includes the optic, where I think we had major challenges a few years ago in the previous ramps.

Speaker #4: I think we are in much better shape there. I think that's also true with what we have prepared in terms of capacity here in ASML.

Christophe Fouquet: I think we are in a much better shape there. I think that's also true with what we have prepared in term of capacity here in ASML. I'm talking about the space we need to build the tools for EUV and DUV. This allow us, Roger mentioned that, to basically now add the people we will need to meet the move rate that is required. The other element I'd like to stress, we also talked a lot about the 3800E in the last few years. As you have noticed, the maturity of the tool is in a much better place than it was a year ago, which also allow us to make great progress on cycle time in our factory. Of course, shorter cycle time give us opportunity for more tools.

Speaker #4: So I'm talking about the space we need to build the tools, both EUV and deep UV. And this allows us, as you mentioned, to basically now add the people we will need to meet the move rate that is required.

Speaker #4: The other element I'd like to stress—we also talked a lot about the 3800E in the last few years. As you have noticed, the maturity of the tool is much better placed than it was a year ago.

Speaker #4: Which also allows us to make great progress on cycle time in our factory and, of course, shorter cycle time gives us opportunity for more tools.

Speaker #4: So we have many, many parameters that we drive, I would say, all at the same time—very aggressively, basically—to get more outputs. That's true for EUV.

Christophe Fouquet: We have many parameters that we drive, I would say, all at the same time, very aggressively, basically, to get more outputs. That's true for EUV. That's true for DUV. 2027 is a bit far for DUV, so I think that the expectation, as I mentioned before, is that the number of DUV tools, the number of immersion tools, the demand there will scale pretty much with what we see on EUV.

Speaker #4: That's true for deep UV. 2027 is a bit far for deep UV. So I think that the expectation, as I mentioned before, is that the number of deep UV tools, the number of immersion tools, the demand there, will scale pretty much with what we see on EUV.

Speaker #3: And I think, CJ, it's also important to recognize—it's also important to recognize, CJ, that, and Christoph said it, we are working with customers to understand what the capacity requirements are that they have.

Roger Dassen: I think, CJ, it's also important to recognize, CJ, that, and Christophe said it, we are working with customers to understand what the capacity requirements are that they have. You're very much focusing on unit numbers. I would say there is a lot more that we're doing to give customers their productivity. First off, and Christophe said it, the maturity of the tool is going up, but also the productivity of the tool is going up, right? The fact that we're now looking at a tool from 220 to 230 wafers per hour. As you know, in 2027, we're going to introduce the F model that gets you to 160 wafers per hour. You have the unit numbers that everyone is very much focused on, but then you should also look at the progress that we're making in terms of productivity.

Speaker #3: And you're very much focusing on unit numbers. And I would say there is a lot more that we're doing to give customers their productivity.

Speaker #3: First off, and Christoph said it, the maturity of the tool is going up, but also the productivity of the tool is going up, right?

Speaker #3: So, the fact that we're now looking at a tool from 20 to 230 wafers per hour—as you know, in 2027 we're going to introduce the F model that gets you to 160 wafers per hour.

Speaker #3: So, you have the unit numbers that everyone is very much focused on, but then you should also look at the progress that we're making in terms of productivity.

Speaker #3: And if you take that into consideration, last year we had 44 tools. If you are just looking at 80 tools—we say at least 80, but if you just look at 80 tools—those 80 tools give you double the wafer per hour capacity that we would have shipped in 2025.

Roger Dassen: If you take that into consideration, last year we had 44 tools. If you are just looking at 80 tools, we say at least 80, but if you just look at 80 tools, those 80 tools give you double the wafer per hour capacity that we would have shipped in 2025. On top of that, we're helping customers upgrade their install base. As Christophe said, we're really working hand in glove with the customers to look at what is your capacity need, what's the easiest way, and also the most economical way for you to get to the productivity that you need. We're executing on all fronts, on availability, on productivity, on unit numbers, capacity, and on upgrading the install base.

Speaker #3: And on top of that, we're helping customers upgrade their install base. So as Christoph said, we're really working hand in glove your capacity need, what's the easiest way, and also the most economical way for you to get to the productivity that you need.

Speaker #3: And we're executing on all fronts, on availability, on productivity, on unit numbers, capacity, and on upgrading the install base.

Speaker #4: Yeah. And the last point I would make, because what you make a very good point also on those productivity upgrades, which you heard in the introduction, we have accelerated.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, the last point I would make, because Roger make a very good point or so on those productivity upgrade, which you heard in the introduction, we have accelerated. I think our customer are extremely happy with that because this allow them to get capacity right away. When you buy a new system, you have to wait a bit. In this case, and I think this is reflected in the strength of the install base sales, this is something we can provide immediately, most of the time, by the way, with a software switch and some qualification. I think Roger is right. I think in our case, capacity is a lot more than one pony trick. We feel quite blessed that we have all of this because we have many, many tools we can use to basically make sure we deliver what our customer needs.

Speaker #4: I think our customers are extremely happy with that, because this allows them to get capacity right away. When you buy a new system, you have to wait a bit.

Speaker #4: In this case, and I think this is reflected in the strength of the install base sales, this is something we can provide immediately. Most of the time, by the way, with the software switch and some qualification.

Speaker #4: So I think, Roger, it is right. I think in our case, capacity is a lot more than a one-pony trick. And we feel quite blessed that we have all of this because we have many, many tools we can use to basically make sure we deliver what our customer needs.

CJ Muse: Thank you.

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Speaker #4: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: Thanks.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Sandy Deshpande from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Yeah. Hi. Thanks for letting me on the question. My first question is regarding your deep UV capacity. I mean, when you look at it, Christoph, I mean, in the last upcycle, you sold a lot more deep UV outside China than you are selling in the last few years.

Sandeep Deshpande: Yeah. Hi. Thanks for letting me on the questions. My first question is regarding your DPUV capacity. When you look at it, Christophe, in the last upcycle, you sold a lot more DPUV outside China than you are selling in the last few years. As you go into the next build cycle, don't you think that you will need to add more DPUV capacity if China remains at these sort of levels that you're seeing?

Speaker #5: As you go into the next build cycle, don't you think that you will need to add more deep UV capacity if China remains at these sort of levels that you're seeing?

Speaker #3: Yeah. I'm not sure, Sandy, what you mean by the next build cycle. What are you referring to?

Christophe Fouquet: I'm not sure, Sandeep, what you mean by the next build cycle. What are you referring to?

Speaker #5: So what I mean is into 2027, when you look into 2027, where you're seeing these 80 UV tools at the minimum that you're going to ship, if you see the number of deep UV tools you sold for the whatever number of EUV tools you sold between in the last big capacity build cycle because there's not been a lot of massive capacity building that you're now going to see in the industry over the next two, three years, would you say that you would need more deep UV capacity?

Sandeep Deshpande: What I mean is when you look into 2027, where you're seeing these 80 EUV tools at the minimum that you're going to ship. If you see the number of DPUV tools you sold for the whatever number of EUV tools you sold in the last big capacity build cycle, because there's not been a lot of massive capacity building that you're now going to see in the industry over the next two, three years, would you say that you would need more DPUV capacity because you have about 600 tool capacity at this point? Is that enough for you in terms of DPUV?

Speaker #5: Because you have about 600 tool capacity at this point. Is that enough for you in terms of deep UV?

Speaker #4: Well, I think 600 is for total deep UV. And I think that when we look at the total, I think we still feel pretty good about that.

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think 600 is for total DPUV. I think that when we look at the total, I think we still feel pretty good about that. A bit like EUV, we have other means to play with that number if needed. When it comes to immersion, we believe that for non-Chinese customer, the demand on immersion will scale with the demand for EUV, because as you know, there is a pretty clear relationship between the two. If you had EUV capacity, you would be also adding some immersion capacity. I would say we pay for sure the same amount of attention to our DPUV ramp, our immersion ramp, that we do on EUV, because the two are, of course, extremely linked, especially when it comes to non-China.

Speaker #4: And a bit like EUV, we have other means to play with that number if needed. When it comes to immersion, I think well, we believe that for non-Chinese customers, the demand on immersion will scale with the demand for EUV.

Speaker #4: Because as you know, there is a pretty clear relationship between the two. And if you had EUV capacity, you would be also adding some immersion capacity.

Speaker #4: So I would say we pay for sure the same amount of attention to our deep UV ramp, our immersion ramp, that we do on EUV because the two are, of course, extremely linked, especially when it comes to non-China.

Sandeep Deshpande: Thanks, Christophe. Maybe Roger, I would like to go back to this question of mix and ASP. You have indicated for this year that you've got more 3600. There are some 3600 shipping this year. Versus next year, there should not be any 3600. There should also be this next generation of E and then the F, which starts shipping next year. How should we be looking at the mix of EUV tools that you ship next year and how that will drive your revenue growth into EUV next year?

Speaker #5: Thanks, Christoph. And I mean, maybe, Roger, I would like to go back to this question of mix and ASP. I mean, you have indicated for this year that you've got more 3,600.

Speaker #5: There are some 3,600 shipping this year. Versus next year, there should not be any 3,600. There should also be this next generation of E, and then the F, which starts shipping next year.

Speaker #5: How should we be looking at the mix of EUV tools that you ship next year, and how that will drive your revenue growth into EUV next year?

Speaker #3: So this year, as you say, the lion's share is still east, right? So there is a bit of these in there, but the lion's share is clearly still east.

Christophe Fouquet: This year, as you say, the lion's share is still E, right? There is a bit of D in there, but the lion's share is clearly still E. I would say about 20% maybe is D and the rest is E. For next year, I think hardly, if any, D. I would say the lion's share of it is E. There will, of course, be F. We will introduce the F, but just the way customers are planning to ramp their nodes, I believe that the lion's share of the tools buy for 2027 will still be E. There will be E at that point with the high throughput that we just talked about, the 230, that will go ex factory at that level. There will be a number of F, but that will be a clear minor.

Roger Dassen: This year, as you say, the lion's share is still E, right? There is a bit of D in there, but the lion's share is clearly still E. I would say about 20% maybe is D and the rest is E. For next year, I think hardly, if any, D. I would say the lion's share of it is E. There will, of course, be F. We will introduce the F, but just the way customers are planning to ramp their nodes, I believe that the lion's share of the tools buy for 2027 will still be E. There will be E at that point with the high throughput that we just talked about, the 230, that will go ex factory at that level. There will be a number of F, but that will be a clear minor.

Speaker #3: And I would say about 20% maybe is these, and the rest is East. For next year, I think hardly, if any, these. And I would say the lion's share of it is East.

Speaker #3: There will, of course, be Fs. We will introduce the F, but just the way customers are planning, to ramp their nodes. I believe that the lion's share of the tools for 2027 will still be East.

Speaker #3: But there will be east at that point with the high throughput that we just talked about, the 230. That will go X factory at that level.

Speaker #3: And there will be a number of Fs, but that will be a clear one.

Speaker #5: So, would you say that your ASPs will grow next year because of how the mix is shifting from this year to next year?

Sandeep Deshpande: Would you say that your ASPs will grow next year because of how the mix is shifting from this year to next year?

Speaker #3: Oh, yes. Yeah. Yeah. Clearly. So the mix next year is more favorable than it is this year. No these. And a bunch of Fs.

Christophe Fouquet: Oh, yes. Clearly, the mix next year is more favorable than it is this year, no D and a bunch of F. Clearly, the ASP next year will improve over this year.

Speaker #3: So, clearly, the ASP next year will improve over this year.

Speaker #5: Thank you.

Sandeep Deshpande: Thank you.

Speaker #3: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: You're welcome.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of François Beauvenier from UBS. Please go ahead.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of François-Xavier Bouvignies from UBS. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of François-Xavier Bouvignies from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker #6: Thank you very much. My first question is on high-end. I mean, a bit beyond 2027, there is obviously a very high demand in advanced logic and memory.

François-Xavier Bouvignies: Thank you very much. My first question is on High-NA. A bit beyond 2027, there is obviously a very high demand in advanced logic and memory, and I was wondering if High-NA could play a role in that tight market as High-NA could save Low-NA capacity. I mean, Christophe, you referred the one instead of three mask with High-NA. If we go into 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, could that tightness help adoption of High-NA? Saying, I'm not going to build 9,100 tools of Low-NA necessarily if High-NA can actually replace with the mask. I'm just wondering if it could help adoption, in other words, High-NA with the tightness of the market. Yeah, François, I think it's a bit too early to answer the question.

François Bouvignies: Thank you very much. My first question is on High-NA. A bit beyond 2027, there is obviously a very high demand in advanced logic and memory, and I was wondering if High-NA could play a role in that tight market as High-NA could save Low-NA capacity. I mean, Christophe, you referred the one instead of three mask with High-NA. If we go into 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, could that tightness help adoption of High-NA? Saying, I'm not going to build 9,100 tools of Low-NA necessarily if High-NA can actually replace with the mask. I'm just wondering if it could help adoption, in other words, High-NA with the tightness of the market.

Speaker #6: And I was wondering if high-end could play a role in that tight market as high-end could save low-end capacity. I mean, Christoph, you referred to three masks.

Speaker #6: I mean, one instead of three masks with high-end. So if we go into 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, could that tightness help adoption of high-end?

Speaker #6: I'm not going to build 90, 100 tools of low-end necessarily if high-end can actually replace with the mask. So I'm just wondering if it could help adoption—in other words, high-end with the tightness of the market.

Speaker #4: Yeah, I think, François, I think it's a bit too early to answer the question. I think what we see today is that several of our customers are going to test high-end on real product with her.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, François, I think it's a bit too early to answer the question. I think what we see today is that several of our customer are going to test High-NA on real product wafer. It means basically they demonstrate for themselves the ability to use this tool on real product. We see that with some logic customer. We see that with some DRAM customer. That's a discussion that is ongoing pretty strongly right now.

Christophe Fouquet: I think what we see today is that several of our customer are going to test High-NA on real product wafer. It means basically they demonstrate for themselves the ability to use this tool on real product. We see that with some logic customer. We see that with some DRAM customer. That's a discussion that is ongoing pretty strongly right now. They continue to make step basically to have this option if they want, and of course, if the maturity of the tool allow that, to use the tool, I would say whenever they want. Especially when it comes to DRAM, I would say the threshold to start using High-NA on existing product is pretty low. I think that's a possibility.

Speaker #4: So, it means basically they demonstrate for themselves the ability to use this tool on real product. We see that with some logic customers. We see that with some DRAM customers.

Speaker #4: That's a discussion that is ongoing pretty strongly right now. So they continue to make steps, basically, to have this option if they want. And of course, if the maturity of the tool allows that, to use the tool I would say whenever they want.

Christophe Fouquet: They continue to make step basically to have this option if they want, and of course, if the maturity of the tool allow that, to use the tool, I would say whenever they want. Especially when it comes to DRAM, I would say the threshold to start using High-NA on existing product is pretty low. I think that's a possibility. I think that as things evolve in the next few months, combination of, again, capacity requirement that continue to be strong, plus progress on High-NA, I will not exclude that. I think it's just a bit too early to respond to the question by the affirmative today.

Speaker #4: And especially when it comes to DRAM, I would say the threshold to start using high-end on existing product is pretty low. So I think that's a possibility.

Speaker #4: I think that, as things evolve in the next few months—a combination of, again, capacity requirement that continues to be strong, plus progress on high-end—I will not exclude that.

Christophe Fouquet: I think that as things evolve in the next few months, combination of, again, capacity requirement that continue to be strong, plus progress on High-NA, I will not exclude that. I think it's just a bit too early to respond to the question by the affirmative today.

Speaker #4: I think it's just a bit too early to respond to the question in the affirmative today.

Speaker #6: Thank you, Christoph. And maybe, Roger, it's a follow-up on this F model. And maybe the ASP. So actually, Christoph, you talked about 260 with a per hour, which is a nice increase from the 250 originally which is roughly 15% higher, 1.5 higher than the E model.

François-Xavier Bouvignies: Thank you, Christophe. Maybe Roger, it's a follow-up on this F model and maybe the ASP. Actually, Christophe, you talked about 260 wafer per hour, which is a nice increase from the 250 originally, which is roughly 15% higher than the E model. Is it the right ASP increase we should expect, 15% higher throughput, and 15 higher ASP, or it could be more because you also increase or improve availability and overlay like you suggested? How should we think about the ASP of the F versus the E?

François Bouvignies: Thank you, Christophe. Maybe Roger, it's a follow-up on this F model and maybe the ASP. Actually, Christophe, you talked about 260 wafer per hour, which is a nice increase from the 250 originally, which is roughly 15% higher than the E model. Is it the right ASP increase we should expect, 15% higher throughput, and 15 higher ASP, or it could be more because you also increase or improve availability and overlay like you suggested? How should we think about the ASP of the F versus the E?

Speaker #6: So, is it the right ASP increase we should expect—15% higher throughput and 15% higher ASP? Or could it be more, because you also increase or improve availability and overlay, like you suggested?

Speaker #6: So how should we think about the ASP of the F versus the E?

Roger Dassen: Yeah, all of that is true, but you also know that we typically share the benefits between the customers and ourselves. You're right that historically the correlation between throughput and ASP is very strong. We're not negotiating in this call with our customers, but I think the proxy approach that you just followed doesn't lead you to a very bad outcome.

Speaker #3: Yeah. All of that is true, but you also know that we typically share the benefits between the customers and ourselves. But you're right that historically, the correlation between throughput and ASP is very, very strong.

Speaker #3: So we're not negotiating in this call with our customers, but I think the proxy approach that you just followed doesn't lead you to a very bad outcome.

Speaker #6: Thank you very much.

François-Xavier Bouvignies: Thank you very much.

François Bouvignies: Thank you very much.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you very much.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Didier Simama, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Didier Scemama, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Didier Scemama, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker #7: Yes, thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to sort of get your thoughts, maybe, on the numbers you've given at the CMD, November 24.

Didier Scemama: Yes, thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to sort of get your thoughts maybe on the numbers you've given at the CMD, November 2024. You said 160,000 wafers start per month capacity addition in DRAM per year, 2025 to 2030, and I think 200 in advanced logic. How do you feel about those numbers? Were we in the right ballpark 2025, and how are we looking at 2026 and beyond? I've got a follow-up. Thank you.

Speaker #7: You said 160,000 with a start per month capacity addition in DRAM per year, 25 to 2030, and I think 200 in advanced logic. How do you feel about those numbers where we in the right ballpark 25?

Speaker #7: And how are we looking at 26 and beyond? And I've got a follow-up. Thank you.

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think that we will all agree that things have changed a bit with AI in the last couple of years. I think we have to go back and most probably look at those numbers again. I think we are going to most probably share the results for analysis next year in the Capital Markets Day. I would say most probably the place where we see the biggest change is DRAM. I think we have talked about that for a few quarters. I think DRAM is very strong right now. Most probably the added capacity per year is above the number we have discussed at least this year. We have to try to understand exactly how this will really play on the longer term. I think too early to say a lot have changed in the last few quarters.

Speaker #4: Well, I think that we will all agree that things have changed a bit with AI in the last couple of years. So I think we have to go back and most really look at those numbers again.

Speaker #4: I think we are going to most probably share the results for analysis next year in a Capital Markets Day. I will say most probably the place where we see the biggest change is DRAM.

Speaker #4: I think we've talked about that for a few quarters. I think DRAM is very strong right now. Most probably the added capacity per year is above the number we have discussed at least this year.

Speaker #4: And we have to try to understand exactly how this will really play on the longer term. So I think too early to say a lot has changed in the last few quarters.

Speaker #4: If you remember two quarters ago, we were having a bit of a different discussion on the market. So give us a bit of time.

Christophe Fouquet: If you remember two quarters ago, we were having a bit of a different discussion on the market. Give us a bit of time. I think we are most probably going to come back to all of you with our latest view on the long-term market next year in the Capital Markets Day. Give us a bit of time to really digest everything that is happening and try to translate that into a bit of a long-term view of the market.

Speaker #4: I think we are most probably going to come back to all of you with our latest view on the long-term market next year in the capital market day.

Speaker #4: So, give us a bit of time to really digest everything that is happening, and try to translate that into a bit of a long-term view of the market.

Speaker #3: I mean, what I'm hearing is that you're tracking towards the upper end of your guidance for 2030. But I'm not going to put words in your mouth.

Didier Scemama: What I'm hearing is that you're tracking towards the upper end of your guidance for 2030, but not going to put words in your mouth. Maybe a follow-up on that, maybe for Roger. I think you said 56% to 60% on EUR 44 to 60 billion of revenue. Let's take a wild guess. Let's say you are above EUR 60 billion. Do you think your gross margins can be above that range, or are they constrained by other elements that we have to take into account?

Speaker #3: Maybe a follow-up on that, maybe for Roger. I think you said 56 to 60 percent on $44 to $60 billion of revenue. So let's take a wild guess.

Speaker #3: Let's say you are above $60 billion. Do you think your gross margins can be above that range, or are they constrained by other elements that we have to take into account?

Speaker #4: Yeah, I think the same applies to what Christophe was just saying. It's very difficult to take out one element, given the moving parts in the past—the moving parts on the gross margin.

Roger Dassen: Yeah. I think the same applies to what Christophe was just saying. It's very difficult to take out one element. I've given the moving parts in the past, the moving parts on the gross margin. A lot of it is in EUV, and it's on the one hand us improving the productivity of the tool, and you see how well we're executing on that front. That, to the earlier question, comes with a commensurate increase in the ASP and leads to gross margin improvements. That's an important element. A second important element is High-NA volume, and DJ, that is very critical, right? Because the number of tools that we have at that stage, and the number of tools that can absorb the fixed cost associated with High-NA, obviously is very critical in determining what your gross margin is on that front.

Speaker #4: A lot of it is an EUV, and it's on the one hand us improving the productivity of the tool. And you see how well we're executing on that front.

Speaker #4: And that's to the earlier question comes with a commensurate increase in the ASP and leads to gross margin improvement. So that's an important element.

Speaker #4: A second important element is high in a volume. And DJ, that is very critical, right? Because the number of tools that we have at that stage and the number of tools that can absorb the fixed cost associated with high in a obviously is very critical in determining what your gross margin is on that front.

Roger Dassen: Because the number of tools that we have at that stage, and the number of tools that can absorb the fixed cost associated with High-NA, obviously is very critical in determining what your gross margin is on that front. We see continued improvement, a possibility in installed base, and we have some ideas on DUV. It's really in that quarter that things need to be addressed, but as Christophe said, let's wait for next year where we have our Capital Markets Day, and can revisit all of these assumptions.

Speaker #4: Then we see continued improvements as a possibility in Salt Base. And we have some ideas in DPV. But it's really in that order that things need to be addressed.

Roger Dassen: We see continued improvement, a possibility in installed base, and we have some ideas on DUV. It's really in that quarter that things need to be addressed, but as Christophe said, let's wait for next year where we have our Capital Markets Day, and can revisit all of these assumptions.

Speaker #4: But as Christoph said, let's wait for the for next year where we have our capital markets say and can revisit all of these assumptions.

Speaker #7: Perfect. Thank you.

Didier Scemama: Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker #4: Welcome.

Roger Dassen: Welcome.

Roger Dassen: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker #6: Yes. Good afternoon. Many thanks for the question. A year ago, I think there was some discussion in the market about a market structure for customers where ASML had essentially one very significant customer in the foundry side and two others lagging significantly.

Alexander Duval: Yes. Good afternoon. Many thanks for the question. A year ago, I think there was some discussion in the market about a market structure for customers, where ASML had essentially one very significant customer in the foundry side and two others lagging significantly. Since then, some have seen progress from two of the players on foundry relative to where we were in the past. Curious to what extent you're baking in a contribution from those foundry players in the coming year. To the extent that those players are ultimately successful, how beneficial could this be, in terms of market inefficiency? Secondly, as a quick follow-up, there have been news articles talking about how ASML is looking to do more to help the hybrid bonding process.

Speaker #6: Since then, some have seen progress from two of the players on foundry relative to where we were in the past. So curious to what extent your baking in a contribution from those foundry players in the coming year and to the extent that those players are ultimately successful, how beneficial could this be in terms of market inefficiency?

Alexander Duval: To the extent that those players are ultimately successful, how beneficial could this be, in terms of market inefficiency? Secondly, as a quick follow-up, there have been news articles talking about how ASML is looking to do more to help the hybrid bonding process. Wondered if you could help us understand to what extent you see hybrid bonding as important, and how you think about the ways that ASML could contribute to customer efforts related to this. Many thanks.

Speaker #6: Secondly, as a quick follow-up, there have been news articles talking about how ASML is looking to do more to help the hybrid bonding process.

Speaker #6: Wondered if you could help us understand to what extent you see hybrid bonding as important, and how you think about the ways that ASML could contribute to customer efforts related to this.

Alexander Duval: Wondered if you could help us understand to what extent you see hybrid bonding as important, and how you think about the ways that ASML could contribute to customer efforts related to this. Many thanks.

Speaker #6: Many thanks.

Speaker #4: Hey. Maybe I will start with the second one. I think we explained a few months ago in fact, we started a capital market day that we sought that 3D integration will become an important part of the tools our customer have basically to deliver density either for logic or for DRAM.

Christophe Fouquet: Maybe I will start with the second one. I think we explained a few months ago, in fact, we started a Capital Markets Day that we thought that 3D integration will become an important part of the tools our customer have, basically, to deliver density, either for logic or for DRAM. As a result, we started to create all kind of activities in ASML, in order to support our customer there. You talked about hybrid bonding. I'd like to mention that one of the things we see happening today first is wafer-to-wafer bonding, which is going to be used by DRAM and logic, and where we think that our holistic lithography product, meaning the combination of metrology and process control on our tool, can help, enormously, our customer basically to adopt this new technology, and deliver basically the performance they need on their wafer.

Speaker #4: And as a result, we started to create all kinds of activities in ASML in order to support our customer there. You talked about hybrid bonding.

Speaker #4: I'd like to mention that one of the things we see happening today first is wafer-to-wafer bonding. Which is going to be used by DRAM by Logic and where we think that our holistic lithography product, meaning the combination of metrology and process control in our tool can help enormously our customer basically to adopt this new technology and deliver basically the performance they need on their wafer.

Speaker #4: I think we also announced that we were entering advanced packaging with the XT to 60. So this has been an important tool we continue to see good traction there.

Christophe Fouquet: I think we also announced that we were entering advanced packaging with the XT:260s. This has been an important tool. We continue to see good traction there. On top of that, we're looking again at a few more things. Some of them have to do with lithography in advanced packaging. For process such as hybrid bonding, I think we'll continue to look at the opportunity to support our customer in their activity, and that can be done in many different forms. I think right now we're looking still at a limited amount of use, practically, of hybrid bonding, especially in front end. Not too much activity with our customer. I will say some discussion for the future on how maybe we could help there. That's the first part.

Speaker #4: And on top of that, we're looking again at a few more things. Some of them have to do with lithography. In advanced packaging, and for processes such as hybrid bonding, I think we are continuing to look at the opportunity to support our customer in their activity.

Speaker #4: And that can be done in many different forms. I think right now we're looking still at a limited amount of use practically of hybrid bonding, especially in front-end.

Speaker #4: So, not too much activity with our customer. But I will say there's some discussion for the future on how maybe we could help there. So that's the first part.

Speaker #3: Yeah, back to the question you had on the foundry business and the potential for Samsung and Intel. It's pretty clear that the demand in the foundry business is huge, and is outweighing the supply, right?

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, back to the question you had on the foundry business and the potential for Samsung and Intel. It's pretty clear that the demand in the foundry business is huge and is outweighing the supply. That leaves a bit of room for others than the market leader. I think that's room that the other players are trying to enter into. We all know about the plans of Samsung and Taylor, so that's real. Of course, that also requires shipment for us, which is happening. The US player in this business already has quite some capacity, I would say. We said it before, that for this year, we're not counting on a huge number of shipments in that regard, because they already have quite a bit of capacity.

Roger Dassen: Yeah, back to the question you had on the foundry business and the potential for Samsung and Intel. It's pretty clear that the demand in the foundry business is huge and is outweighing the supply. That leaves a bit of room for others than the market leader. I think that's room that the other players are trying to enter into. We all know about the plans of Samsung and Taylor, so that's real. Of course, that also requires shipment for us, which is happening. The US player in this business already has quite some capacity, I would say. We said it before, that for this year, we're not counting on a huge number of shipments in that regard, because they already have quite a bit of capacity.

Speaker #3: So that leaves a bit of room for others than the market leader. And I think that's room that the other players are trying to enter into.

Speaker #3: We all know about the plans of Samsung and Taylor, so that's real. And of course, that also requires shipment for us, which is happening.

Speaker #3: The US player in this business already has quite some capacity, I would say. So we've said it before. That for this year, we're not counting on a huge number of shipments in that regard because they already have quite a bit of capacity.

Speaker #3: Then you ask about the longer term. Of course, a market that is characterized by multiple players, at least, will sort of guarantee innovation. And that, I think, is what is important.

Christophe Fouquet: You ask about the longer term, and of course, the market that is characterized by multiple players at least will sort of guarantee innovation. That, I think, is what is important. I think the market leader has been tremendously innovative, so you cannot say that even in the market that was dominated by one player, you would still see a lot of innovation. I think that's what we've seen in the past couple of years. Having three players in there will probably guarantee even more innovation. I ultimately think that is good for the ecosystem.

Roger Dassen: You ask about the longer term, and of course, the market that is characterized by multiple players at least will sort of guarantee innovation. That, I think, is what is important. I think the market leader has been tremendously innovative, so you cannot say that even in the market that was dominated by one player, you would still see a lot of innovation. I think that's what we've seen in the past couple of years. Having three players in there will probably guarantee even more innovation. I ultimately think that is good for the ecosystem.

Speaker #3: I think the market leader has been tremendously innovative. So you cannot say that even in a market that was dominated by one player, you would not still see a lot of innovation.

Speaker #3: I think that's what we've seen in the past couple of years. But having three players in there will probably guarantee even more innovation. And I ultimately think that that is good for the ecosystem.

Alexander Duval: Many thanks.

Speaker #6: Many thanks.

Alexander Duval: Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line of Chris Castle from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker #7: Yes. Thank you. Much has been discussed on the call about your own actions to increase your capacity to supply. Could you speak about your customers' capacity constraints specifically, the clean room constraints as well?

Chris Caso: Yes. Thank you. Much has been discussed on the call about your own actions to increase your capacity to supply. Could you speak about your customers' capacity constraints, specifically the clean room constraints as well? I guess this is perhaps a better question for next year, perhaps. To what extent is your ability to ship constrained by your own ability to produce tools, your customers' clean room space, or is demand going to be the constraint? Is it going to be a supply-constrained environment or a demand-constrained environment?

Speaker #7: And I guess this is perhaps a better question for next year, perhaps. But to what extent is your ability to ship constrained by your own ability to produce tools?

Speaker #7: Your customers' clean room space? Or is demand going to be the constraint? Is it going to be a supply constraint environment or a demand constraint environment?

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think we talked quite a bit about that last quarter, where I think we saw a lot of demand coming in. This was a bit coming very, very fast. I think we mentioned that the clean room capacity was one of the factor, if not the key factor, on what we could do this year. I think you have seen us increasing our range for 2026, which means that we have progressed there. We have even increased the upper part of the range. I think that we see that the plan for 2026 are really solidifying, getting more and more clarity about the number of pedestal that will be available when. That's clear. When it comes to 2027, I think that while there is supply limitation right now.

Speaker #4: Well, I think we talked quite a bit about that last quarter, where I think we saw a lot of demand coming in. So this was a bit coming very, very fast.

Speaker #4: I think we mentioned that the cleanroom capacity was one of the factors, if not the key factor, in what we could do this year.

Speaker #4: I think you have seen us increasing our range for 2026, which means that we have progress there. We have even increased the upper part of the range.

Speaker #4: So I think that we see that the plan for 2026 is really solidifying. We're getting more and more clarity about the number of pedestals that will be available and when.

Speaker #4: So that's clear. And when it comes to 2027, I think that, well, there is supply limitation right now. I think I mentioned before, we see our customer having a lot less hesitation to really accelerate their capital expenditure.

Christophe Fouquet: I think I mentioned before, we see our customer having a lot less hesitation to really accelerate their capital expenditure. I think you, of course, have noticed that our DRAM customer are doing extremely well, thanks to the price of memory right now. I think Roger just mentioned for logic also that the capacity limitation is quite high. I would say there is no hesitation whatsoever in the mind of our customer at this point of time, not only to invest, also because sometimes they even get guarantee from their own customer on the investment, but also has the resources to move as quickly as possible. That's the dynamic we are in. I think that's why we see our outlook improving this year. We continue to have, I would say, very, very active discussion with our customer to prepare next year.

Speaker #4: I think you, of course, have noticed that our DRAM customers are doing extremely well, thanks to the price of memory right now. And I think Roger just mentioned for Logic also that the capacity limitation is quite high.

Speaker #4: So I would say there is no hesitation whatsoever in the mind of our customer at this point of time, not only to invest, also because sometimes they even get guarantee from their own customer on the investment.

Christophe Fouquet: I would say there is no hesitation whatsoever in the mind of our customer at this point of time, not only to invest, also because sometimes they even get guarantee from their own customer on the investment, but also has the resources to move as quickly as possible. That's the dynamic we are in. I think that's why we see our outlook improving this year. We continue to have, I would say, very, very active discussion with our customer to prepare next year. I would say right now, everyone is really moving towards the more, the faster, the better.

Speaker #4: But also as a result to move as quickly as possible. So that's the dynamic we are in. And I think that's why we see our outlook improving this year.

Speaker #4: And we continue to have I would say very, very active discussion with our customer to prepare next year. But I would say right now everyone is really moving towards the more the faster the better.

Christophe Fouquet: I would say right now, everyone is really moving towards the more, the faster, the better.

Speaker #3: Right. That's clear. As a follow-up to that, given what's happening in DRAM now, could you speak to what that means for litho intensity? And we've seen one of the remedies for the tight supply is migrating to some of the new nodes.

Chris Caso: Right. That's clear. As a follow-up to that, given what's happening in DRAM now, could you speak to what that means for litho intensity? We've seen one of the remedies for the tight supply is migrating to some of the new nodes. How does that affect litho intensity? Does it have any effect on High-NA adoption at your DRAM customers in effort to address some of the supply constraints?

Speaker #3: How does that affect litho intensity? And does it have any effect on high-end adoption at your DRAM customers in an effort to address some of the supply constraints?

Speaker #4: Well, I think first for DRAM, I think DRAM has been a bit the perfect storm for ASML because, of course, we have this capacity buildup.

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think first for DRAM, I think DRAM has been a bit the perfect storm for ASML, because of course we have this capacity buildup. As we mentioned a few times, we have seen a major adoption of EUV in DRAM in 2025. You may have noticed that our, I would say, US DRAM customer also made this announcement that they were shifting also pretty strongly on EUV. The reason for that is, of course, performance, but it's also capacity, because if you are going to use more EUV layers, you are going to need less multi-patterning. Multi-patterning takes a lot of space also in the fabs. I think this is also definitely another argument in favor of EUV. I think this was mentioned, by the way, by this US customer in their call.

Speaker #4: But as we mentioned a few times, we have seen a major adoption of EUV in DRAM in 2025. And you may have noticed that our I would say US DRAM customer also made this announcement that they were shifting also pretty strongly on EUV.

Speaker #4: And the reason for that is, of course, performance. But it's also capacity, because if you are going to use more EUV layers, you are going to need less multi-patterning.

Speaker #4: And multi-patterning takes a lot of space also in the fabs. I think this is also definitely another argument in favor of EUV. I think this was mentioned, by the way, by this US customer in their call.

Speaker #4: So, I would say the first source of that is, first, more adoption of low-NA EUV, which I think is also translated into the number Roger was mentioning before, with, I would say, a very high point on our memory business this year.

Christophe Fouquet: I would say the first result of that is first, more adoption of Low-NA EUV, which I think is also translated into the number Roger was mentioning before with, I would say, a very high point on our memory business this year. That's also true for EUV. Now, of course, what's true for Low-NA today, I think we expect to be true for High-NA in the future. This, again, not prime time for High-NA today, but I can only say that more Low-NA EUV adoption today can only help for more High-NA adoption in the future because the logic of High-NA is the same. It's going to single expose, simplifying the process, getting more space, et cetera.

Speaker #4: That's also true for EUV. Now, of course, what's true for low-NA today I think we expect to be true for high-NA in the future.

Speaker #4: So this again not prime time for high-NA today. But I can only say that more low-NA EUV adoption today can only help for more high-NA adoption in the future because the logic of high-NA is the same.

Christophe Fouquet: This, again, not prime time for High-NA today, but I can only say that more Low-NA EUV adoption today can only help for more High-NA adoption in the future because the logic of High-NA is the same. It's going to single expose, simplifying the process, getting more space, et cetera. I think DRAM has been really a good story when it comes to litho intensity in 2025, and I think it's translating very strongly into EUV demand this year and most probably the years to come.

Speaker #4: It's going to single expose simplifying the process, getting more space, etc., etc. So I think DRAM has been really a good story when it comes to Litho Intensity in '25.

Christophe Fouquet: I think DRAM has been really a good story when it comes to litho intensity in 2025, and I think it's translating very strongly into EUV demand this year and most probably the years to come.

Speaker #4: And I think it's translating very strongly into EUV demand this year and most probably the years to come.

Speaker #3: Clear. Thank you.

Chris Caso: Clear. Thank you.

Speaker #4: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Tammy Qiu from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Tammy Qiu from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Tammy Q from Barenberg. Please go ahead.

Speaker #8: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. So firstly, on the DRAM sector or memory sector in general, so we have learned that the memory sector has been all signing those three to five years agreements.

Tammy Qiu: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Firstly, on the DRAM sector or memory sector in general. We have learned that the memory sector has been all signing those three to five years agreement. With your customers' visibility higher on their own end market, do you see any behavioral change from your side, i.e., they are more willing to give you more visibility of order for your tools going forward? At the same time, because of they are currently desperate for capacity, do you see any room for charge more or upgrade more, i.e., DRAM business or memory business will be more profitable for you on higher visibility than it was previously?

Speaker #8: So with your customers' visibility higher on their own end market, do you see any behavioral change from your side? Are they more willing to give you more visibility of orders for your tools going forward?

Speaker #8: And also at the same time, because of they are currently desperate for capacity, do you see any room for charge more or upgrade more, i.e., DRAM business or memory business will be more profitable for you on high visibility than it was previously?

Speaker #4: Yeah, so in terms of visibility and behavioral change, the visibility to us, customers are very, very open, by the way. That's also the case on the Logic side.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah. So, in terms of visibility and behavioral change, the visibility to us, customers are very, very open. By the way, that's also the case on the logic side. But customers are very open to us, and they're very openly discussing with us also their expansion plans for this year, but also beyond. It's also clear that if you look at the scale of the fabs that they're building, it's pretty significant, right? So if you look at the more recent fabs that are being built by our customers, it's pretty clear that they allow for quite some expansion. So if you talk about behavioral change, I think that's probably the number one behavioral change out there. Vis-a-vis us, they're just very, very open in terms of how they see the market and how they see their further capacity expansion.

Speaker #4: But customers are very open to us. And they're very openly discussing with us also their expansion plans for this year, but also beyond. It's also clear that if you look at the scale of the fabs that they're building, it's pretty significant, right?

Speaker #4: So if you look at the if you look at the more recent fabs that are being built by our customers, it's pretty clear that they allow for quite some expansion.

Speaker #4: So if you talk about behavioral change, I think that's probably the number one behavioral change out there. Vis-à-vis us, they're just very, very open in terms of how they see the market and how they see their further capacity expansion.

Speaker #4: Now, in our model of pricing, as you know, our model of pricing is not based on is not based on the squeeze that our customers find themselves in.

Christophe Fouquet: Now, in our model of pricing, as you know, our model of pricing is not based on the squeeze that our customers find themselves in. That's not the way we do business. The way we do business is that we look at the value that we provide to our customers, generation on generation, tool on tool, and we take our fair share on that. You might say in the current climate, can't you squeeze out a little bit more? I understand that, but it's also true that when the market goes down a little bit and the customers are going through more difficult times, that they also pay these fees. Fundamentally, we believe that the model that we have is a fair model.

Speaker #4: That's not the way we do business. The way we do business is that we look at the value that we provide to our customers.

Speaker #4: Generation on generation, tool on tool. And we take our fair share in that. And you might say, in the current climate, can't you squeeze out a little bit more?

Speaker #4: I understand that. But it's also true that when a market is good, it goes down a little bit, and the customers are going through more difficult times.

Speaker #4: That they also pay these fees. So fundamentally, we believe that the model that we have is a fair model. It's also a model that is fair to all the players because I would find it difficult to explain why we're charging more in, let's say, the memory environment versus the Logic environment.

Christophe Fouquet: It's also a model that is fair to all the players because I would find it difficult to explain why we're charging more in, let's say, the memory environment versus the logic environment. That's just not the way we do business. We're very happy with the business model we have, which is based on the value of our tools, and we would gladly continue with that approach.

Speaker #4: That's just not the way we do business. So we're very, very happy with the business model that we have, which is based on the value of our tools.

Speaker #4: And we would gladly continue with that approach.

Speaker #8: Okay. Thank you. And next one is on your AT at least 80 capacity for 2027. So you're at least, if I understand correctly, is the 80 is based on what customers have told you for the time being.

Tammy Qiu: Okay, thank you. Next one is on your at least 80 capacity for 2027. Your at least, if I understand correctly, is the 80 is based on what customer have told you for the time being, and is that at least based on customer is limited by clean room space so that they don't know and don't want to commit further or something else? What's driving that at least?

Speaker #8: And is that at least based on customers being limited by cleanroom space, so that they don't know and don't want to commit further, or is it something else?

Speaker #8: I was driving that, at least.

Roger Dassen: That at least is the alignment that we currently have with customers, which takes on board their gauge of the market situation, their gauge of the progress that they're having in fab building, and our gauge of what's the right way to give them capacity. I told you unit numbers is one way to provide capacity, but there is more. This really is the alignment that we currently have based on the signals that they're providing us and what we think is the appropriate way to give them that capacity.

Speaker #4: The 'at least' is the alignment that we currently have with customers, which takes on board their gauge of the market situation, their gauge of the progress that they're having in fab building, and our gauge of the ability to—what's the right way to give them capacity.

Speaker #4: I told you unit numbers is one way to provide capacity, but there is more. So, this really is the alignment that we currently have based on the signals that they're providing us and what we think is the appropriate way to give them that capacity.

Speaker #8: Okay. Thank you.

Tammy Qiu: Okay, thank you.

Speaker #4: You're welcome.

Roger Dassen: You're welcome.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Lee Simpson from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Roger Dassen: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Lee Simpson from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Lee Simpson from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Lee Simpson: Great. Good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just a quick clarification question on the installed base management. I just want to understand, well, I assume at least that most all of the outperformance in Q1 margin came from that. That's largely because I think you said earlier there was a high incidence of upgrades business that quarter, and that most, if not all of the rest of the year will be more the maintenance type of business. Thanks.

Speaker #5: Great. Good morning, good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just a quick clarification question on the install-based management. I just want to understand well—I assume, at least, that most all of the outperformance in Q1 margin came from that.

Speaker #5: And that's largely because I think you said earlier there was a high incidence of upgrades business that quarter. And that most, if not all, of the rest of the year will be more the maintenance type of business.

Speaker #5: Thanks.

Roger Dassen: No, that would not be fair. We expect upgrade business to continue throughout the year. Even in the upgrade business, you have different margin profiles of the upgrade services that you provide. It just happens to be that the Installed Base business that we had in Q1 just happened to be the kind of business that is associated with very high gross margins. No, we definitely expect the Installed Base business and the upgrade business in that Installed Base business to continue. That's also what you would expect in an environment like this, where, as we said before, customers are really asking for upgrades. Even within the upgrade business, you have the other ones, primarily software-based, which come with very high gross margins, and then ones with maybe a little bit lesser gross margins.

Christophe Fouquet: No, that would not be fair. We expect upgrade business to continue throughout the year. Even in the upgrade business, you have different margin profiles of the upgrade services that you provide. It just happens to be that the Installed Base business that we had in Q1 just happened to be the kind of business that is associated with very high gross margins. No, we definitely expect the Installed Base business and the upgrade business in that Installed Base business to continue. That's also what you would expect in an environment like this, where, as we said before, customers are really asking for upgrades. Even within the upgrade business, you have the other ones, primarily software-based, which come with very high gross margins, and then ones with maybe a little bit lesser gross margins. That's the mix effect within the install base that we were calling out.

Speaker #4: No, that would not be fair. So we expect upgrade business to continue throughout the year. But even in the upgrade business, you have different margin profiles of the upgrade services that you provide.

Speaker #4: And it just happens to be that the business, the install-based business that we had in Q1, just happened to be the kind of business that is associated with very, very high gross margins.

Speaker #4: No, no. We definitely expect the install-based business and the upgrade business in that install-based business to continue. That's also what you would expect in an environment like this where, as we said before, customers are really asking for upgrades.

Speaker #4: But even within the upgrade business, you have—there are the ones primarily software-based, which come with very high gross margins, and then ones with maybe a little bit lesser gross margins.

Speaker #4: That's the mix effect within the install-based that we were calling out.

Roger Dassen: That's the mix effect within the install base that we were calling out.

Speaker #5: Maybe just on that mixed effect, it does look as though more and more the sort of warranty-like business that you have now with install-based and EUVs coming through.

Lee Simpson: Maybe just on that mixed effect, it does look as though more and more the sort of warranty-like business that you have now with the install base and EUVs coming through. How much of a gap are we seeing closure between what is traditional maintenance and what is traditional upgrade cycle? Are we talking about less than 10 percentage points gap between those two elements now?

Speaker #5: So how much of a gap are we seeing closure between what is traditional maintenance and what is traditional upgrade cycle? I mean, are we talking about less than 10 percentage points gap between those two elements now?

Roger Dassen: When you say 10 percentage point, you mean in terms of gross margin or what?

Christophe Fouquet: When you say 10 percentage point, you mean in terms of gross margin or what?

Speaker #4: When you say 10 percentage points, do you mean in terms of gross margin, or what?

Lee Simpson: In terms of gross margin, yeah.

Speaker #5: In terms of gross margin, yeah.

Speaker #4: In terms of gross margin, I cannot say that, Lee. It's too diverse. As I just mentioned, the margin profile is very, very diverse. So it's very much dependent on what kind of upgrade business.

Roger Dassen: In terms of gross margin, I cannot say that, Lee. It's too diverse. As I just mentioned, the margin profile is very, very diverse. It's very much dependent on what kind of upgrade business. On the service front, we've given you updates in previous years on the progress that we're making on EUV service gross margin. Four or five years ago, we were bleeding money. We actually had negative gross margins, and gradually we were able to improve that. We're now at a gross margin that is no longer very much apart from, I would say, the corporate gross margin. We've gotten that, I think to a level which I think is business-wise the right level for us to aspire to. On the upgrade business, it very much depends on what it is.

Christophe Fouquet: In terms of gross margin, I cannot say that, Lee. It's too diverse. As I just mentioned, the margin profile is very, very diverse. It's very much dependent on what kind of upgrade business. On the service front, we've given you updates in previous years on the progress that we're making on EUV service gross margin. Four or five years ago, we were bleeding money.

Speaker #4: I mean, on the service front, we've given you updates in previous years on the progress that we're making on EUV service gross margin. So four or five years ago, we were bleeding money.

Speaker #4: We actually had negative gross margins, and gradually we were able to improve that. And we're now at a gross margin that is no longer very much apart from, I would say, the corporate gross margin.

Christophe Fouquet: We actually had negative gross margins, and gradually we were able to improve that. We're now at a gross margin that is no longer very much apart from, I would say, the corporate gross margin. We've gotten that, I think to a level which I think is business-wise the right level for us to aspire to. On the upgrade business, it very much depends on what it is. There the profile is so different that it would not be appropriate for me to give you a number there.

Speaker #4: So we've gotten that, I think, to a level which I think is business-wise the right level for us to aspire to on the upgrade business.

Speaker #4: It very much depends on what it is. So, the profile is so different that it would not be appropriate for me to give you a number there.

Roger Dassen: There the profile is so different that it would not be appropriate for me to give you a number there.

Lee Simpson: That makes sense. Maybe if we take a step back and look again at the capacity as a multi-year proposition here, because clearly we are going into a massive upcycle with AI, and now we've got agentic AI and driving to a different whole discussion on what the ROI could be in and around AI. Our sense here is that EUV is becoming a bottleneck, as other tools are in the system. If we look at your own clean room build-out, it did look as though you, and correct me if I'm wrong, took maybe two or three years to get this set up, which was sensible given the paucity of demand at the time. Could we see this accelerating?

Speaker #5: That makes sense. I mean, maybe if we take a step back and look again at the capacity as a multi-year proposition here, because clearly we are going into a massive upcycle with AI, and now we've got agentic AI and it’s driving a whole different discussion on what the ROI could be.

Speaker #5: In and around AI, so our sense here is that EUV is becoming a bottleneck. As other tools are, in the system. And if we look at your

Lee Simpson: If we look at your own clean room build-out, it did look as though you, and correct me if I'm wrong, took maybe two or three years to get this set up, which was sensible given the paucity of demand at the time. Could we see this accelerating? Could we see concrete pour, shell build one year, and then the next year fit out happening consecutively, whereby you could have two or three clean room projects at the same time, which I guess is me asking, how much land bank can we secure in the immediate vicinity?

Speaker #1: Dawn clean room , build out . It did look as though you took . Maybe . And correct me if I'm wrong . Took maybe 2 or 3 years to to get this set up , which was sensible given the paucity of demand at the time .

Speaker #1: But could we see this accelerating ? Could we see , you know , a concrete pour shell , build one year and then the next year fit out and happening consecutively , whereby you could have 2 or 3 clean room projects at the same time , which I guess is me asking , you know , how much land bank can we secure in the immediate vicinity

Lee Simpson: Could we see concrete pour, shell build one year, and then the next year fit out happening consecutively, whereby you could have two or three clean room projects at the same time, which I guess is me asking, how much land bank can we secure in the immediate vicinity?

Speaker #2: Well, I think the first thing I'd like to say is that we do not want you to be the bottleneck. So I think I'd like to say that very, very strongly.

Roger Dassen: Well, I think the first thing I'd like to say is that we do not want EUV to be the bottleneck. I think I'd like to say that very, very strongly. As we discussed a bit before, we have many, many different ways to drive capacity up, being, of course, the number of tools we manufacture, which also depend on our cycle time, the speed at which we manufacture them, productivity, et cetera. Of course, adding more footprint is another one. I will say that we will use whatever is needed in the future to meet our customer demand. We are reviewing this very carefully on a monthly basis with some, as you know, long-term visibility because of the lead time of our tools. Today, I think we

Christophe Fouquet: Well, I think the first thing I'd like to say is that we do not want EUV to be the bottleneck. I think I'd like to say that very, very strongly. As we discussed a bit before, we have many, many different ways to drive capacity up, being, of course, the number of tools we manufacture, which also depend on our cycle time, the speed at which we manufacture them, productivity, et cetera. Of course, adding more footprint is another one. I will say that we will use whatever is needed in the future to meet our customer demand. We are reviewing this very carefully on a monthly basis with some, as you know, long-term visibility because of the lead time of our tools. Today, I think we

Speaker #2: And as we discussed a bit before , we have many , many different ways to drive capacity up being , of course , the number of tools we manufacture , which also depend on our cycle time , the speed at which we manufacture them Productivity , etc.

Speaker #2: , etc. . And of course , you know , adding more footprint is another one . And I would say that we will use whatever is needed in the future to meet our customer demand .

Speaker #2: And we are reviewing this very carefully on a monthly basis with some , as you know , long term visibility because of the lead time of our tools .

Speaker #2: And today , I think we we are not in such a situation . And we have the ability , again , to use any of the tools .

Christophe Fouquet: We are not in such a situation, and we have the ability, again, to use any of the tools we just discussed to make sure we continue, and that's something we'll continue to do. I would just say again, very strongly, we do not want to be the bottleneck for our customer. So far, we have been using all the tools we have at hand to make sure we don't get there, and we'll continue to do that.

Speaker #2: We just discussed to , to make sure we continue . And that's something we'll continue to do . So I would just say , again , very strongly , we do not want to be the bottleneck for our customer .

Speaker #2: And so far we have been using all the tools we have at hand to make sure we don't get there. And we'll continue to do that.

Roger Dassen: The key thing that we've done, Lee, on that front is, as Christophe said, to get the long lead time items in place. That's what we've done. That gives us many degrees of freedom, including, you talked about a land bank, including making sure that we have sufficient room to expand. We have worked on that extremely hard in this region to get that accomplished, and we were recently able to get that done. We have a lot of degrees of freedom on a go-forward basis with long lead time items in place. That gives us the kind of flexibility that Christophe is talking about to give customers what we think they need.

Speaker #3: And the key thing that we've done on that front is , as Chris has said to , to , to , to get the long lead time items in place , that's what we've done .

Speaker #3: That gives

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, maybe to illustrate that, if you compare a bit what we did in 2025 versus what we could do in, basically, 2027 with the at least 80 system, we more than double, basically, the total EUV capacity we can ship to our customer. This is done, basically, in about two years. We do that, I would say, without blinking too much. We're still, I would say, on top of our game there, and I think, again, the combination of all the elements we gave you is really putting us in a good position to continue to grow and also to continue to do that, because this has been some time your concern when the market was not so good, without spending too much money. I think that's also important. I know the question of bottleneck comes back very often.

Christophe Fouquet: We're still, I would say, on top of our game there, and I think, again, the combination of all the elements we gave you is really putting us in a good position to continue to grow and also to continue to do that, because this has been some time your concern when the market was not so good, without spending too much money. I think that's also important. I know the question of bottleneck comes back very often. I think we don't feel at all that we are the bottleneck today. We're very closely working with our customer. Again, we have many tools in our hands to make sure we keep it this way.

Speaker #2: So good ways . Spending too much money . I think that's also important . So I know the question of bottleneck comes back very often .

Speaker #2: I think we don't feel at all that we are the bottleneck today . We're very closely working with our customer . And again , we have many , many , many tools in our hands to to make sure we keep it this way .

Christophe Fouquet: I think we don't feel at all that we are the bottleneck today. We're very closely working with our customer. Again, we have many tools in our hands to make sure we keep it this way.

Speaker #1: Thanks much . And well done . In the quarter .

Lee Simpson: Thanks so much, and well done in the quarter.

Speaker #2: Thank you very much. Thank you. Okay.

Christophe Fouquet: Thank you very much.

Roger Dassen: Thank you.

Jim Kavanagh: Okay. I'm afraid that is all the time we have for today. On behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker #4: I'm afraid that is all the time we have for today . So on behalf of ASML , I would like to thank you all for joining us today .

Speaker #4: Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

Jim Kavanagh: Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2026 Q1 financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2026 Q1 financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Q1 2026 ASML Holding NV Earnings Call

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