Q4 2025 Advantage Energy Ltd Earnings Call
Operator: Listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you need assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, 6 March 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagnell, Vice President. Please go ahead.
Operator: Listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you need assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, 6 March 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagnell, Vice President. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: Person-only mode, following the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you need assistance, please press stars 0 for the operator.
Speaker #1: This call is being recorded on Friday, March 6, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Wagner, Vice President. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Joanna, and welcome everybody to our conference call to discuss advantages year-end 2025 results. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to the advisories on forward-looking statements contained in the news release, as well as advisories contained in advantages MD&A and annual information form, both of which are available on Cedar and on our website.
Brian Bagnell: Thank you, Joanna. Welcome everybody to our conference call to discuss Advantage's year-end 2025 results. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to the advisories on forward-looking statements contained in the news release, as well as advisories contained in Advantage's MD&A and Annual Information Form, both of which are available on SEDAR and on our website. I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation to our website. I'm here with Mike Belenkie, President and CEO of Advantage, Craig Blackwood, our CFO, as well as other members of our executive team. We'll start by speaking to some of our financial and operating highlights. Once Mike's finished, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions. As usual, we'd ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions that you follow up with us individually after the call.
Brian Bagnell: Thank you, Joanna. Welcome everybody to our conference call to discuss Advantage's year-end 2025 results. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to the advisories on forward-looking statements contained in the news release, as well as advisories contained in Advantage's MD&A and Annual Information Form, both of which are available on SEDAR and on our website. I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation to our website. I'm here with Mike Belenkie, President and CEO of Advantage, Craig Blackwood, our CFO, as well as other members of our executive team. We'll start by speaking to some of our financial and operating highlights. Once Mike's finished, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions. As usual, we'd ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions that you follow up with us individually after the call.
Speaker #2: I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation to our website. I'm here with Mike Belanke, President and CEO of Advantage, Greg Blackwood, our CFO, as well as other members of our executive team.
Speaker #2: And we'll start by speaking to some of our financial and operating highlights. Once Mike's finished, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions.
Speaker #2: And as usual, we'd ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions that you follow up with us individually after the call. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mike.
Brian Bagnell: With that, I'll turn it over to Mike. Please go ahead.
Brian Bagnell: With that, I'll turn it over to Mike. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Brian. And thanks everyone for joining us today. 2025 was defined by record operational performance, strong capital efficiencies, and meaningful progress towards our long-term strategic objectives.
Mike Belenkie: Thanks, Brian, and thanks everyone for joining us today. 2025 was defined by record operational performance, strong capital efficiencies, and meaningful progress towards our long-term strategic objectives. Even during this volatile commodity environment, our business delivered exceptional results, demonstrating the strength of our asset base and the resilience of our operating model. Annual production averaged 78,267 boe/d, the highest in our 25-year history, supported by strong well performance across all of our assets. Liquids production grew 28% year-over-year. Liquids revenue represented 48% of total revenue, despite representing just 16% of our production, reinforcing the high average quality of our liquids products and the value of our liquids diversification.
Mike Belenkie: Thanks, Brian, and thanks everyone for joining us today. 2025 was defined by record operational performance, strong capital efficiencies, and meaningful progress towards our long-term strategic objectives. Even during this volatile commodity environment, our business delivered exceptional results, demonstrating the strength of our asset base and the resilience of our operating model. Annual production averaged 78,267 boe/d, the highest in our 25-year history, supported by strong well performance across all of our assets. Liquids production grew 28% year-over-year. Liquids revenue represented 48% of total revenue, despite representing just 16% of our production, reinforcing the high average quality of our liquids products and the value of our liquids diversification.
Speaker #3: Even during this volatile commodity environment, our business delivered exceptional results. Demonstrating the strength of our asset base and the Average production—sorry, annual production averaged 78,267 BWs per day.
Some operating highlights.
Mike's finished will pass it back to the operator for questions and as usual we would ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions that you follow up individually after the call.
Speaker #3: The highest in our 25-year history. So reported by strong, well-performance across all of our assets. Liquids production grew 28% year over year. Liquids revenue represented 48% of total revenue, despite representing just 16% of our production.
With that I'll turn it over to Mike. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Brian and thanks, everyone for joining us today.
2025 was defined by record operational performance strong capital efficiencies and meaningful progress towards.
Speaker #3: Reinforcing the high average quality of our liquids products, and the value of our liquids diversification. Advantage generated 382 million in adjusted funds flow, or 229 per share.
Mike Belenkie: Advantage generated CAD 382 million in adjusted funds flow or CAD 2.29 per share, with CAD 76 million applied to debt reduction and CAD 287.7 million applied to development capital. These results reflect our continued focus on capital efficiency, cost control, and maximizing cash flow per share. As we look back over the last year, there have been a few key themes. First theme is that we delivered the strongest operational outcomes we've had in our 25 year history. Our Montney drilling program delivered the top 9 Alberta Montney gas wells of 2025, including what we believe to be the most productive well ever drilled in the Alberta Montney, with an IP thirty of 4,567 boe/d. Every gas well we drilled was in the top 25 list.
Mike Belenkie: Advantage generated CAD 382 million in adjusted funds flow or CAD 2.29 per share, with CAD 76 million applied to debt reduction and CAD 287.7 million applied to development capital. These results reflect our continued focus on capital efficiency, cost control, and maximizing cash flow per share. As we look back over the last year, there have been a few key themes. First theme is that we delivered the strongest operational outcomes we've had in our 25 year history. Our Montney drilling program delivered the top 9 Alberta Montney gas wells of 2025, including what we believe to be the most productive well ever drilled in the Alberta Montney, with an IP thirty of 4,567 boe/d. Every gas well we drilled was in the top 25 list.
Speaker #3: With 76 million applied to debt reduction and 287.7 million applied to development capital. These results reflect our continued focus on capital efficiency, cost control, and maximizing cash flow per share.
Speaker #3: As we look back over the last year, there have been a few key themes. The first theme is that we delivered the strongest operational outcomes we've had in our 25-year history.
Speaker #3: Our Montane drilling program delivered the top nine Alberta Montane gas wells of 2025. Including what we believe to be the most productive well ever drilled in the Alberta Montane, with an IP30 of 4,567 BWs per day.
Speaker #3: Every gas well we drilled was in the top 25 list. To be clear, headline rates are great, but it's the corporate average that pays the bills.
Mike Belenkie: To be clear, headline rates are great, but it's the corporate average that pays the bills. These uniformly strong outcomes, combined with our low cost structure, generated a 2.1x recycle ratio on proved reserves, despite a very weak commodity price environment. When we say very weak, this was worse than a bottom decile price environment in 2025. We're very proud of our team for delivering these incredible results. The second theme of the year that despite one of the worst periods of AECO prices in history, we still generated significant free cash flow, thanks in part to our strong hedging program and diversification into both downstream gas markets and high value liquids. Free cash flow was also supported by our price sensitive production management.
Mike Belenkie: To be clear, headline rates are great, but it's the corporate average that pays the bills. These uniformly strong outcomes, combined with our low cost structure, generated a 2.1x recycle ratio on proved reserves, despite a very weak commodity price environment. When we say very weak, this was worse than a bottom decile price environment in 2025. We're very proud of our team for delivering these incredible results. The second theme of the year that despite one of the worst periods of AECO prices in history, we still generated significant free cash flow, thanks in part to our strong hedging program and diversification into both downstream gas markets and high value liquids. Free cash flow was also supported by our price sensitive production management.
Speaker #3: These uniformly strong outcomes combined with our low cost structure generated a 2.1 times recycle ratio on approved reserves, despite a very weak commodity price environment.
Speaker #3: And when we say very weak, this was worse than a bottom decile price environment in 2025. We're very proud of our team for delivering these incredible results.
Speaker #3: The second theme for the year is that despite one of the worst periods of ACO prices, in history, we still generated significant free cash flow thanks in part to our strong hedging program and diversification into both downstream gas markets and high-value liquids.
Speaker #3: Free cash flow was also supported by our price-sensitive production management. At times of extremely low gas prices, we curtailed up to 300 million cubic feet per day of gas averaging 2,600 BWs per day of dry gas on an annualized basis, shut in.
Mike Belenkie: At times of extremely low gas prices, we curtailed up to 300 million cubic feet per day gas, averaging 2,600 boe/d of dry gas on an annualized basis shut-in. These curtailments reduced our declines, reduced depletion, and positively impacted adjusted funds flow by avoiding operating costs and deferring production until prices were stronger. This is consistent with our philosophy. If it won't increase our cash flow, we won't produce it. Third theme of the year is that marketing strategy really matters. We further diversified away from AECO by adding nearly 60 million cubic feet per day of long-term physical transportation service to downstream markets, including Ventura and Dawn. We've hedged a meaningful portion of our production out through 2028 to reduce cash flow volatility. Looking ahead, 2026 will be a pivotal year.
Mike Belenkie: At times of extremely low gas prices, we curtailed up to 300 million cubic feet per day gas, averaging 2,600 boe/d of dry gas on an annualized basis shut-in. These curtailments reduced our declines, reduced depletion, and positively impacted adjusted funds flow by avoiding operating costs and deferring production until prices were stronger. This is consistent with our philosophy. If it won't increase our cash flow, we won't produce it. Third theme of the year is that marketing strategy really matters. We further diversified away from AECO by adding nearly 60 million cubic feet per day of long-term physical transportation service to downstream markets, including Ventura and Dawn. We've hedged a meaningful portion of our production out through 2028 to reduce cash flow volatility. Looking ahead, 2026 will be a pivotal year.
Speaker #3: These curtailments reduced our declines, reduced depletion, and positively impacted adjusted funds flow, by avoiding operating costs and deferring production until prices were stronger. This is consistent with our philosophy; if it won't increase our cash flow, we won't produce it.
Speaker #3: The third theme of the year is that marketing strategy really matters. We further diversified away from ACO by adding nearly 60 million cubic feet per day of long-term physical transportation service, to downstream markets including Ventura and Dawn.
Speaker #3: And we've hedged the meaningful portion of our production out through 2028 to reduce cash flow volatility. Looking ahead, 2026 will be a pivotal year.
Speaker #3: Our new 75 million cubic feet per day progress gas plant is on track for commissioning in Q2. And once progress and the Glacier turnaround are complete, we expect to enter a period of highly efficient capital spending and accelerating free cash flow.
Mike Belenkie: Our new 75 million cubic feet per day Progress gas plant is on track for commissioning in Q2. Once Progress and the Glacier turnaround are complete, we expect to enter a period of highly efficient capital spending and accelerating free cash flow. Beginning in Q3 of this year, production is expected to average 90,000 BOEs per day through the end of 2027. That's six quarters at about that level. Since there is no additional infrastructure spending required at this level, this program will be unusually efficient with operating costs trending lower as more and more volumes will be flowing through our owned infrastructure. Disciplined capital allocation is one of our key guiding principles. Beyond 2027, we have a wealth of options for efficient future growth that mirror the efficiencies of our last five years.
Mike Belenkie: Our new 75 million cubic feet per day Progress gas plant is on track for commissioning in Q2. Once Progress and the Glacier turnaround are complete, we expect to enter a period of highly efficient capital spending and accelerating free cash flow. Beginning in Q3 of this year, production is expected to average 90,000 BOEs per day through the end of 2027. That's six quarters at about that level. Since there is no additional infrastructure spending required at this level, this program will be unusually efficient with operating costs trending lower as more and more volumes will be flowing through our owned infrastructure. Disciplined capital allocation is one of our key guiding principles. Beyond 2027, we have a wealth of options for efficient future growth that mirror the efficiencies of our last five years.
Speaker #3: Beginning in the third quarter of this year, production is expected to average 90,000 BWs per day. Through the end of 2027, that's six quarters at about that level.
Speaker #3: Since there is no additional infrastructure spending required at this level, this program will be unusually efficient. With operating costs trending lower, as more and more volumes will be flowing through our owned infrastructure.
Speaker #3: Disciplined capital allocation is one of our key guiding principles. Beyond 2027, we have a wealth of options for efficient future growth that mirror the efficiencies of our last five years.
Speaker #3: The 75 million a day progress gas plant is modular and can be expanded with a large lumps of capital. Meanwhile, we own the currently idle Caribou gas plant which has a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day, cubic feet per day.
Mike Belenkie: The CAD 75 million a day Progress gas plant is modular and will be expanded without large lumps of capital. Meanwhile, we own the currently idle Caribou gas plant, which has a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day right next to our development-ready Conroy assets in Northeast BC. Both processing options, that's Caribou and Progress expansions, are unusually efficient. Pending some stability in commodity prices, we will announce what our 2028 to 2030 development plans look like. However, I want to make this very clear, we are not interested in growing for the sake of growth. Any future growth investment will be fully funded by cash flow and justified by full cycle returns with a supportive commodity price outlook in mind.
Mike Belenkie: The CAD 75 million a day Progress gas plant is modular and will be expanded without large lumps of capital. Meanwhile, we own the currently idle Caribou gas plant, which has a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day right next to our development-ready Conroy assets in Northeast BC. Both processing options, that's Caribou and Progress expansions, are unusually efficient. Pending some stability in commodity prices, we will announce what our 2028 to 2030 development plans look like. However, I want to make this very clear, we are not interested in growing for the sake of growth. Any future growth investment will be fully funded by cash flow and justified by full cycle returns with a supportive commodity price outlook in mind.
Speaker #3: Right next to our development-ready Conroy assets in Northeast BC. Both processing options—that's Caribou and progress expansions—are unusually efficient. And pending some stability in commodity prices, we will announce what our 2028 to 2030 development plans look like.
Speaker #3: However, and I want to make this very clear, we are not interested in growing for the sake of growth. Any future growth investment will be fully funded by cash flow, and justified by full cycle of returns.
Speaker #3: With a supportive commodity price outlook in volatility, as we are experiencing right now with geopolitical events and with local supply-demand imbalances, the right strategy is to focus on making a short cycle time investments and scrutinizing every penny.
Mike Belenkie: During times of volatility, as we are experiencing right now with geopolitical events and with local supply demand imbalances, the right strategy is to focus on making short cycle time investments and scrutinizing every penny. As an example, we recently reduced our 2026 capital budget by CAD 20 million. Thanks to our continued strong well performance, our production guidance remains unchanged. Debt reduction remains a top priority. We will continue allocating substantially all free cash flow to debt reduction until we reach our debt target range of CAD 400 to 500 million. We expect that to happen in the second half year of 2026. We're very close already. Thereafter, we will balance further debt reduction with opportunistic share buybacks. This will be consistent with our long-standing capital allocation framework. Finally, I want to highlight some progress with Entropy.
Mike Belenkie: During times of volatility, as we are experiencing right now with geopolitical events and with local supply demand imbalances, the right strategy is to focus on making short cycle time investments and scrutinizing every penny. As an example, we recently reduced our 2026 capital budget by CAD 20 million. Thanks to our continued strong well performance, our production guidance remains unchanged. Debt reduction remains a top priority. We will continue allocating substantially all free cash flow to debt reduction until we reach our debt target range of CAD 400 to 500 million. We expect that to happen in the second half year of 2026. We're very close already. Thereafter, we will balance further debt reduction with opportunistic share buybacks. This will be consistent with our long-standing capital allocation framework. Finally, I want to highlight some progress with Entropy.
Speaker #3: As an example, we recently reduced our 2026 capital budget by $20 million. Thanks to our continued strong well performance, our production guidance remains unchanged.
Speaker #3: Debt reduction remains a top priority. We will continue allocating substantially all free cash flow to debt reduction until we reach our debt target range of 400 to 500 million.
Speaker #3: We expect that to happen in the second half year of 2026. So we're very close already. Thereafter, we will balance further debt reduction with opportunistic share buybacks.
Speaker #3: This will be consistent with our long-standing capital allocation framework. Finally, I want to highlight some progress of entropy. Construction of the Glacier Phase 2 CCS project is expected to be completed within months here around mid-2026.
Mike Belenkie: Construction of the Glacier Phase 2 CCS project is expected to be completed within months here, around mid-2026. This project will substantially decarbonize the Glacier facility and is fully funded entirely by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. It represents a major milestone for Entropy and a meaningful step forward for commercial CCS globally. Although Advantage is not contributing any capital to the project, our working interest is now just under 50%, and we will benefit as partial owners from all EBITDA that's delivered by that project. With that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support, and I'll pass it back to Brian for questions.
Mike Belenkie: Construction of the Glacier Phase 2 CCS project is expected to be completed within months here, around mid-2026. This project will substantially decarbonize the Glacier facility and is fully funded entirely by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. It represents a major milestone for Entropy and a meaningful step forward for commercial CCS globally. Although Advantage is not contributing any capital to the project, our working interest is now just under 50%, and we will benefit as partial owners from all EBITDA that's delivered by that project. With that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support, and I'll pass it back to Brian for questions.
Speaker #3: This project will substantially decarbonize the Glacier facility and is fully funded entirely by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. It represents a major milestone for entropy and a meaningful step forward for commercial CCS globally.
Speaker #3: Although advantage is not contributing any capital to the project, our working interest is now just under 50%, and we will benefit as partial owners from all EBITDA that's delivered by that project.
Speaker #3: So with that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support, and I'll pass it back to Brian for questions.
Speaker #4: Thanks, Mike. Joanna, we'll go to the phone line to see if there are any questions, and then we'll check with you. Thank you.
Brian Bagnell: Thanks, Mike. Joanna, we'll go to the phone line to see if there are any questions and then we'll check with you. Thank you.
Brian Bagnell: Thanks, Mike. Joanna, we'll go to the phone line to see if there are any questions and then we'll check with you. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. 1 moment please for your first question. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star 1 now. There appear to be no questions. I will turn the call back over to Brian Bagnell.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. 1 moment please for your first question. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star 1 now. There appear to be no questions. I will turn the call back over to Brian Bagnell.
Speaker #5: You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the two, and if you are using a speakerphone, please flip the handset before pressing any keys.
Speaker #5: One moment, please, for your first question. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star one now. There appear to be no questions.
Speaker #5: I will turn the call back over to Brian Bagnell.
Brian Bagnell: Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining the call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out following the call. Thank you.
Brian Bagnell: Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining the call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out following the call. Thank you.
Speaker #4: Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining the call today. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out following the call. Thank you.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.