Q4 2026 Titan Machinery Inc Earnings Call

March 19, 2026

Speaker #1: Greetings and welcome to the Titan Machinery Inc. fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call. At this time, participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.

Speaker #1: If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jeff Sonnek, of ICR.

Speaker #1: Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Welcome to the Titan Machinery fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call. On the call today from the company are Bryan Knutson, president and chief executive officer; and Bo Larsen, chief financial officer.

Speaker #2: By now, everyone should have access to the earnings released for the fiscal fourth quarter and full year ended January 31st, 2026. If you have not received the release, it's available on the Investor Relations tab of Titan's website at ir.titanmachinery.com.

Speaker #2: This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on the company's website as well. In addition, we're providing a presentation to accompany today's prepared remarks, which can be found on Titan's website at ir.titanmachinery.com.

Speaker #2: The presentation is directly below the webcast information in the middle of the page. We'd like to remind everyone that the prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions.

Speaker #2: The statements do not guarantee future performance, and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations of management and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in today's earnings release and presentation.

Speaker #2: And in the risk factors section and other portions of Titan's reports filed with the SEC. These risk factors contain a more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in and any forward-looking statements.

Speaker #2: Except as may be required by applicable law, Titan assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements that may be made in today's release or call.

Speaker #2: Please note that during today's call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, including results on an adjusted basis. We believe these adjusted financial measures can facilitate a more complete analysis and greater transparency into Titan's ongoing financial performance, particularly when comparing underlying results from period to period.

Speaker #2: We have included reconciliations of these non-gap financial measures to their most directly comparable gap financial measures in today's release. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to take your questions.

Speaker #2: And with that, I'd now like to introduce the company's President and CEO, Mr. Bryan Knutson. Please go ahead, Bryan.

Speaker #3: Thank you, Jeff. And good morning to everyone on the call. I'll start today with an update on our inventory optimization progress and operational focus areas.

Speaker #3: And then discuss the current environment across our segments before turning the call over to Bo for his financial review and comments on our fiscal 2027 modeling assumptions.

Speaker #3: Fiscal 2026 was a year where our team executed at a high level in a difficult environment. For the full fiscal year, we reduced total inventory by more than 200 million dollars.

Speaker #3: Surpassing our 100 million dollar target that we announced at the beginning of our fiscal year and our updated 150 million dollar target we revised last quarter.

Speaker #3: Our inventory peaked in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 due to the heavy influx of equipment shipments as supply chains normalized post-pandemic. And since that time, we've reduced total inventory by 625 million dollars over this 18-month period.

Speaker #3: I'm extremely proud of the disciplined work our team has done across all of our locations to make that happen, in what continues to be a very challenging demand environment.

Speaker #3: This progress illustrates our intense focus on creating a more resilient enterprise and positions us well for strong results when market conditions improve. Importantly, the quality of our inventory has improved meaningfully.

Speaker #3: It is leaner, it is fresher, and it has a better mix of in-demand categories. But we are not done. We still have work to do across certain equipment categories and some of our slower-moving seasonal new equipment categories.

Speaker #3: As we head into fiscal 2027, our focus shifts from inventory reduction toward product mix optimization as we look to continue to improve inventory turns through minimizing aged inventory and thus decreasing interest expense.

Speaker #3: Our customer care initiative remains central to our operating strategy and continues to demonstrate its value while at the bottom of the equipment cycle. Our parts and service businesses are currently generating over half of our gross profit dollars.

Speaker #3: Providing critical stability in these tough times our industry is currently facing. Our customer care initiative keeps us closely engaged with our customers, allowing us to add value to their operations and position us well for when equipment demand eventually recovers.

Speaker #3: With our hard work and dedication to superior customer service, we expect stability in our parts and service business in fiscal 2027 despite another expected decline in equipment industry volume in North America.

Speaker #3: With that, I will turn to our segments. In domestic ag, the environment continues to be very challenging for our grower customers ahead of the upcoming planting season.

Speaker #3: Our OEM partners are calling this year the trough of the cycle and the guidance we are providing today reflects that. Commodity prices remain well below break-even for most growers.

Speaker #3: This continues to be the fundamental issue facing the industry. When you add in persistently high interest expense, increased input costs, and limited government support, we expect many growers to remain conservative in 2027 in terms of their equipment purchasing decisions.

Speaker #3: With respect to potential government support, seeing E15 passed into law is currently our customer's biggest priority followed by further adoption of biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel or SAF.

Speaker #3: Allowing E15 usage year-round would help alleviate the ongoing oversupply of corn and assist with energy independence. Furthermore, recent spikes in diesel prices highlight the need for increased production of domestic biodiesel.

Speaker #3: In construction, infrastructure and data center work continues to provide a solid baseline of activity, but residential demand remains softer. Many of our customers are cautiously optimistic as they look at their schedules for the year ahead.

Speaker #3: Despite the mixed outlook in the end markets we serve, we remain optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of this business, which are underpinned by ongoing housing shortages, infrastructure spending, and continued data center construction.

Speaker #3: In Australia, the market conditions have been similar to what we are seeing domestically. But exacerbated by elevated input costs for diesel fuel, and urea.

Speaker #3: However, after two years of historically low industry volumes, we are starting to see some more encouraging signs. And recent rainfall has helped improve soil conditions and farmer sentiment after an extended period of dry weather.

Speaker #3: Overall, our expectations are for modest industry volume growth in fiscal 2027. We continue to like our position in Australia. It is a major agricultural export market with strong fundamentals and our dual brand strategy with Case IH and New Holland, which is now available in six of our 15 rooftops.

Speaker #3: Gives us more reach and more ways to serve our customers across our footprint. In Europe, we are pleased to have the majority of our German divestiture behind us.

Speaker #3: With some remaining wind-down activities carrying into the first quarter. As we head into the spring planting season in our Eastern European markets, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see modest improvement in industry volumes coming off of trough levels.

Speaker #3: But expect them to remain well below historical averages in Romania and Bulgaria. The modest overall industry volume growth should partially offset an expected year-over-year decline given the normalization of our Romanian business which had an exceptionally strong prior year driven by the EU subvention programs.

Speaker #3: In closing, I want to express my sincere appreciation to our entire team. We dramatically surpassed our inventory reduction goals and made meaningful improvements to our operations and we did it while maintaining the exceptional customer service that differentiates us in the market.

Speaker #3: Our team's focus and dedication throughout this year is what made our successes possible. We are executing on our initiatives managing what we can control and positioning the business to perform well as market conditions improve.

Speaker #3: With the actions we've taken thus far, we will emerge from this period a stronger company. With that, I will turn the call over to Beau for his financial review.

Speaker #4: Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our consolidated results for the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter. Total revenue was $641.8 million. Compared to $759.9 million in the prior year period.

Speaker #4: Reflecting a 14.6% decrease in same-store sales, driven by weaker demand in our domestic ag, construction, and Europe segments, partially offset by growth in our Australia segment.

Speaker #4: Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $87 million compared to $51 million in the prior year period. Gross profit margin was 13.5%, approximately double last year's rate.

Speaker #4: The year-over-year improvement primarily reflects the lapsing of inventory impairments and other inventory reduction efforts in the fourth quarter of the prior year. That significantly compressed equipment margins.

Speaker #4: Equipment margins in the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter continued to face pressure from softer retail demand and remaining aged inventory. However, margins have improved as inventory has returned toward healthier levels.

Speaker #4: This equipment margin improvement is expected to continue in fiscal 2027. Operating expenses were $95.7 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, down slightly from the prior year period.

Speaker #4: Our headcount and discretionary spending continues to be down year-over-year as a result of disciplined expense management. Floor plan and other interest expense was $9.6 million representing a decrease of approximately 27% on a year-over-year basis and a decrease of 13% on a sequential basis.

Speaker #4: This progress reflects the significant reduction in interest-bearing inventory levels over the past year. In the fourth quarter, net loss was $36.2 million with loss per diluted share of $1.59.

Speaker #4: This includes the recognition of a $0.78 non-cash valuation allowance that resulted in an increase in income tax expense. Importantly, I'd note that this allowance was greater than our initial expectation, which called for a $0.35 to $0.45 headwind that was built into our adjusted EPS guidance on the third quarter call.

Speaker #4: Big picture, it is non-cash and does not impact our operating performance or our cash flows. However, it is an important variable influencing our reported results versus the expectations we set.

Speaker #4: Hence my emphasis to ensure the linkage is clear. Adjusted net loss, which excludes charges related to our German divestiture and related wind-down activities but includes recognition of the $17.8 million non-cash valuation allowance I just mentioned, was $32.5 million.

Speaker #4: Or a loss of $1.43 per diluted share. This compares to last year's fourth quarter adjusted net loss of $44.9 million or $1.98 per diluted share.

Speaker #4: To summarize, our underlying revenue and profitability was in line with what we had expected, as evidenced by looking at our pre-tax loss—which, in addition to being consistent with our expectations, has improved significantly versus the prior year period.

Speaker #4: Now turning to a brief overview of our segment results for the fourth quarter. Our domestic agriculture segment realized sales of $406.7 million. Reflecting a same-store sales decline of 22.8%.

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Titan Machinery Inc. Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jeff Sonnek of ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker #4: Driven by continued softening in equipment demand as a result of weak grower profitability. Segment pre-tax loss improved to $9.9 million compared to adjusted pre-tax loss of $56.3 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

Jeff Sonnek: Thank you. Welcome to the Titan Machinery Q4 fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today from the company are Bryan Knutson, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bo Larsen, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the fiscal Q4 and full year ended 31 January 2026. If you have not received the release, it's available on the investor relations tab of Titan's website at ir.titanmachinery.com. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on the company's website as well. In addition, we're providing a presentation to accompany today's prepared remarks, which can be found on Titan's website at ir.titanmachinery.com. The presentation is directly below the webcast information in the middle of the page.

Speaker #4: Reflecting the actions we have taken to accelerate inventory reductions and the resulting improvement that we have achieved over the past 12 months, in our Construction segment, same-store sales decreased 4.6% to $90.2 million.

Speaker #4: Driven by lower equipment sales. Our inventory reduction initiatives have weighed on equipment margins in this segment as well. Adjusted pre-tax loss was $1 million compared to $1.1 million loss in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

Speaker #4: In our Europe segment, sales increased 5.2% to $68.8 million. Which included a 4.3 million net benefit related to foreign currency fluctuations. On a constant currency basis, revenue was more or less flat year-over-year.

Jeff Sonnek: We'd like to remind everyone that the prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. The statements do not guarantee future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations of management and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in today's earnings release and presentation, and in the Risk Factors section and other portions of Titan's reports filed with the SEC. These risk factors contain a more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. Except as may be required by applicable law, Titan assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements that may be made in today's release or call.

Speaker #4: Reflecting the normalization of demand following the EU subvention fund-driven strength, which ended in the third quarter of this year. Pre-tax income for the segment was $1.8 million, compared to a pre-tax loss of $1.8 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

Speaker #4: Excluding restructuring and impairment charges associated with the Germany divestiture, adjusted pre-tax income was $5.4 million in this year's fourth quarter. In our Australia segment, sales increased 16.7% to $76.1 million.

Speaker #4: Compared to 65.3 million in the fourth quarter last year. Including a negligible foreign currency impact. Pre-tax income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 was $2.5 million compared to $2.3 million last year.

Jeff Sonnek: Please note that during today's call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, including results on an adjusted basis. We believe these adjusted financial measures can facilitate a more complete analysis and greater transparency into Titan's ongoing financial performance, particularly when comparing underlying results from period to period. We have included reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in today's release. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to take your questions. With that, I'd now like to introduce the company's President and CEO, Mr. Bryan Knutson. Please go ahead, Brian.

Speaker #4: Now, briefly summarizing our full year fiscal 2026 results. Total revenue was $2.4 billion for fiscal 2026, compared to $2.7 billion for fiscal 2025. Adjusted net loss for fiscal 2026 was $50.6 million.

Speaker #4: Or $2.22 loss per diluted share. Which includes the non-cash valuation allowance but excludes the charges related to the Germany divestiture I discussed earlier. This compares to an adjusted prior year net loss of $29.7 million or $1.31 loss per diluted share.

Bryan Knutson: Thank you, Jeff, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'll start today with an update on our inventory optimization progress and operational focus areas, and then discuss the current environment across our segments before turning the call over to Bo for his financial review and comments on our fiscal 2027 modeling assumptions. Fiscal 2026 was a year where our team executed at a high level in a difficult environment. For the full fiscal year, we reduced total inventory by more than $200 million, surpassing our $100 million target that we announced at the beginning of our fiscal year and our updated $150 million target we revised last quarter. Our inventory peaked in the Q2 of fiscal 2025 due to the heavy influx of equipment shipments as supply chains normalized post-pandemic.

Speaker #4: Now onto our balance sheet and inventory position. We had cash of $28 million and an adjusted debt to tangible net worth ratio of 1.7 times as of January 31, 2026.

Speaker #4: Which remains well below our bank covenant of 3.5 times. For the full fiscal year, total equipment inventory decreased by $201 million to $725 million.

Speaker #4: As Bryan described, this more than doubled our $100 million target for the year. It is a meaningful accomplishment in this environment. And it positions us well heading into fiscal 2027.

Speaker #4: Importantly, as part of that inventory reduction, we saw a significant improvement in the amount of aged equipment we have on our lots. Aged equipment, which we consider to be equipment that we have had for longer than 12 months, peaked in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.

Bryan Knutson: Since that time, we've reduced total inventory by $625 million over this 18-month period. I'm extremely proud of the disciplined work our team has done across all of our locations to make that happen in what continues to be a very challenging demand environment. This progress illustrates our intense focus on creating a more resilient enterprise and positions us well for strong results when market conditions improve. Importantly, the quality of our inventory has improved meaningfully. It is leaner, it is fresher, and it has a better mix of in-demand categories. We are not done. We still have work to do across certain used equipment categories and some of our slower-moving seasonal new equipment categories.

Speaker #4: And declined by approximately 45% to $174 million in the second half of this fiscal year. This improvement in the health of our inventories has started to show up in higher equipment margins in the back half of the fiscal year.

Speaker #4: But we still have work to do on reducing the amount of aged equipment we have and we are confident we'll continue to make progress on that in fiscal 2027.

Speaker #4: With that, I'll finish by sharing our initial outlook for fiscal 2027. Starting with our top line modeling assumptions across our segments. For the domestic ag segment, we expect revenue to be down in the range of 15 to 20 percent.

Bryan Knutson: As we head into fiscal 2027, our focus shifts from inventory reduction toward product mix optimization as we look to continue to improve inventory turns through minimizing aged inventory and thus decreasing interest expense. Our customer care initiative remains central to our operating strategy and continues to demonstrate its value well at the bottom of the equipment cycle. Our parts and service businesses are currently generating over half of our gross profit dollars, providing critical stability in these tough times our industry is currently facing. Our customer care initiative keeps us closely engaged with our customers, allowing us to add value to their operations and positioning us well for when equipment demand eventually recovers. With our hard work and dedication to superior customer service, we expect stability in our parts and service business in fiscal 2027 despite another expected decline in equipment industry volume in North America.

Speaker #4: This is consistent with the depressed cash crop industry outlook we've discussed today. Looking ahead, we believe we are back in sync with broader industry dynamics following our aggressive inventory reduction activity over the last year and a half.

Speaker #4: Our construction segment is expected to be in the range of flat to up 5%. Which aligns to the more favorable industry fundamentals that are benefiting from infrastructure.

Speaker #4: Our European segment is expected to be down in the range of 20 to 25 percent. This decline reflects our exit from Germany, which contributed approximately $50 million of revenue this past year.

Speaker #4: And reflects Romania following the strong performance in fiscal 2025. As a reminder, this segment grew 45% in fiscal 2026. Excluding this difficult comparison, we expect modest improvements in industry volumes off cyclical lows, but the Eastern European market remains challenged by the same broader ag cycle dynamics as our domestic ag business.

Bryan Knutson: With that, I will turn to our segments. In domestic ag, the environment continues to be very challenging for our grower customers ahead of the upcoming planting season. Our OEM partners are calling this year the trough of the cycle, and the guidance we are providing today reflects that. Commodity prices remain well below break even for most growers, which continues to be the fundamental issue facing the industry. When you add in persistently high interest expense, increased input costs, and limited government support, we expect many growers to remain conservative in 2027 in terms of their equipment purchasing decisions. With respect to potential government support, seeing E15 passed into law is currently our customers' biggest priority, followed by further adoption of biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel or SAF. Allowing E15 usage year-round would help alleviate the ongoing oversupply of corn and assist with energy independence.

Speaker #4: For our Australia segment, we expect revenue to be up in the range of 10 to 15 percent. This growth includes activity from the acquisition we completed last fall and the modest improvement in industry volumes that Bryan previously mentioned.

Speaker #4: From a margin perspective, our fiscal 27 assumptions consider consolidated full year equipment margin to be approximately 8.4%. Which compares to fiscal 2026's full year consolidated equipment margin of 7.3%.

Speaker #4: This margin assumption reflects improved inventory health, but still factors in the need to finish driving down aged inventory. It also reflects broader industry expectations that North America industry volumes will be down 15 to 20 percent.

Speaker #4: Which implies the lowest level since the 1970s. Given that context, we are happy with how well we are positioned to manage through the trough.

Speaker #4: And confident we'll return to normalized equipment margin levels as industry conditions improve. Operating expense dollars are expected to decrease year over year. Although we'll continue to invest in our customer care strategy which is supporting stability in our parts and service businesses.

Bryan Knutson: Furthermore, recent spikes in diesel prices highlight the need for increased production of domestic biodiesel. In construction, infrastructure and data center work continues to provide a solid baseline of activity, but residential demand remains softer. Many of our customers are cautiously optimistic as they look at their schedules for the year ahead. Despite the mixed outlook in the end markets we serve, we remain optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of this business, which is underpinned by ongoing housing shortages, infrastructure spending, and continued data center construction. In Australia, the market conditions have been similar to what we are seeing domestically, but exacerbated by elevated input costs for diesel fuel and urea. However, after two years of historically low industry volumes, we are starting to see some more encouraging signs, and recent rainfall has helped improve soil conditions and farmer sentiment after an extended period of dry weather.

Speaker #4: And overall, operating expenses are expected to be approximately 17% of sales. Floor plan interest expense is expected to decline by approximately 25%. Following the significant inventory reduction that we achieved last year.

Speaker #4: In absolute terms, interest expense will continue to decline as we further reduce aged inventory throughout the year. Bringing it all together, we are introducing a fiscal 27 modeling assumption range of an adjusted loss of $1.25 to $1.75.

Speaker #4: Which compares to the $2.22 adjusted loss we realized in fiscal 26. It is worth noting that given the US tax valuation allowance that was booked this quarter, we will have a very low tax rate for fiscal 2027.

Speaker #4: With most of the tax expense and/or benefit being recognized in an international segment, we also thought it would be helpful to provide some specific below-the-line expectations in our press release to help bridge to our adjusted EPS outlook.

Bryan Knutson: Overall, our expectations are for modest industry volume growth in fiscal 2027. We continue to like our position in Australia. It is a major agricultural export market with strong fundamentals and our dual brand strategy with Case IH and New Holland, which is now available in 6 of our 15 rooftops, gives us more reach and more ways to serve our customers across our footprints. In Europe, we are pleased to have the majority of our German divestiture behind us, with some remaining wind down activities carrying into Q1. As we head into the spring planting season in our Eastern European markets, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see modest improvement in industry volumes coming off of trough levels. Expect them to remain well below historical averages in Romania and Bulgaria.

Speaker #4: Further, we have also added adjusted EBITDA to our outlook to help provide a clearer view of the operating performance we are achieving today. And as we look into the future as the cycle unfolds.

Speaker #4: So we are also guiding to adjusted EBITDA in the range of $17 to $29 million, which compares to the $13.9 million we generated in fiscal '26.

Speaker #4: In summary, despite the expectation for historically low industry volumes for our domestic Ag segment, we are positioned to benefit from the aggressive inventory reduction posture we have taken over the last couple of years.

Speaker #4: Thematically, this positions us to improve margins this fiscal year. And begin building back our earnings power at an accelerated pace as the cycle eventually turns back in our being, we continue to set prudent expectations and look forward to demonstrating our execution in the quarters ahead.

Bryan Knutson: The modest overall industry volume growth should partially offset an expected year-over-year decline given the normalization of our Romanian business, which had an exceptionally strong prior year driven by the EU subvention programs. In closing, I want to express my sincere appreciation to our entire team. We dramatically surpassed our inventory reduction goals and made meaningful improvements to our operations, and we did it while maintaining the exceptional customer service that differentiates us in the market. Our team's focus and dedication throughout this year is what made our successes possible. We are executing on our initiatives, managing what we can control, and positioning the business to perform well as market conditions improve. With the actions we've taken thus far, we will emerge from this period a stronger company. With that, I will turn the call over to Bo for his financial review.

Speaker #4: This concludes our prepared comments. Operator, we are now ready for the question-and-answer session of our call.

Speaker #2: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.

Speaker #2: A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys.

Speaker #2: One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Liam Burke with B Ryan Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker #3: Thank you. Good morning, Bryan. Good morning, Bob.

Speaker #2: Morning.

Bo Larsen: Thanks, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our consolidated results for the fiscal 2026 Q4. Total revenue was $641.8 million compared to $759.9 million in the prior year period, reflecting a 14.6% decrease in same-store sales driven by weaker demand in our domestic ag, construction, and Europe segments, partially offset by growth in our Australia segment. Gross profit for the Q4 was $87 million compared to $51 million in the prior year period, and gross profit margin was 13.5%, approximately double last year's rate. The year-over-year improvement primarily reflects the lapsing of inventory impairments and other inventory reduction efforts in the Q4 of the prior year that significantly compressed equipment margins.

Speaker #3: we're looking, I mean, we were looking at a, best case in the, corn pricing of about $5. it's inching up there. it's improving directionally, not at $5 yet, obviously, but is there any movement by the farmer community to start getting interested in, in loosening the purse strings, or does it have to be a five and above where everybody gets comfortable on the, equipment purchases?

Speaker #2: Yeah, there's, definitely been some upside here in the, in the last week or two in the, in the market. So that's been positive to see.

Speaker #2: like you said, for a lot of growers, we're still below break-even at, at these levels. So and then you just take some of the uncertainty as well.

Speaker #2: So, you know, plausibly, somewhere between another 50 cents and a, and a buck on corn here, which with certain fundamentals coming together, you know, looks like there, there is a possibility for it at this point.

Bo Larsen: Equipment margins in the fiscal 2026 Q4 continued to face pressure from softer retail demand and remaining aged inventory. However, margins have improved as inventory has returned toward healthier levels. This equipment margin improvement is expected to continue in fiscal 2027. Operating expenses were $95.7 million for the Q4 of fiscal 2026, down slightly from the prior year period. Our headcount and discretionary spending continues to be down year-over-year as a result of disciplined expense management. Floor plan and other interest expense was $9.6 million, representing a decrease of approximately 27% on a year-over-year basis and a decrease of 13% on a sequential basis. This progress reflects the significant reduction in interest-bearing inventory levels over the past year.

Speaker #2: So that too looks more optimistic than even a month ago. so we'll see where that tracks. And then just consistency as well, you know, just to, at this point with is the long-term fundamentals that are in place, the current supply and demand and, and the oversupply we have of, of corn and soybeans directionally, they're looking at, you know, just a, a short-term spike doesn't give them a lot of confidence, but as, as things progress here in, if the conflict continues on and, and we see, increased stability there, and again, prices uptick further, that definitely will help confidence and that, that's something that we're monitoring closely.

Speaker #2: You know, we've also, been to DC quite a bit in the last year. lobbying for our farmers in, in trying to do what we can for commodity prices.

Speaker #2: There's a, we'll be there again next week. Friday, March 27th next week, there's a celebration of agriculture day at the White House, that we're looking forward to.

Bo Larsen: In Q4, net loss was $36.2 million with loss per diluted share of $1.59, which includes the recognition of a 78-cent non-cash valuation allowance that resulted in an increase in income tax expense. Importantly, I'd note that this allowance was greater than our initial expectation, which called for a 35- to 45-cent headwind that was built into our adjusted EPS guidance on the Q3 call. Big picture, it is non-cash and does not impact our operating performance or our cash flows. However, it is an important variable influencing our reported results versus the expectations we set. Hence my emphasis to ensure the linkage is clear.

Speaker #2: And as we get near the end of the month here, you know, there should be some stuff coming out with the RVOs, and we've been really pushing for E15.

Speaker #2: passing that into law and greater adoption, you know, and all the benefits that could come with, with that for, you know, reducing prices at the pump as well as just energy independence and, and again, helping alleviate some of the ongoing oversupply of corn.

Speaker #3: Great. Thank you. And, understanding that the, the timing of a, of an upcycle is difficult to, to predict, but you're comfortable in, in some future upcycle that your sized right to maximize the leverage, in, in how the business is run?

Bo Larsen: Adjusted net loss, which excludes charges related to our German divestiture and related wind down activities, but includes recognition of the $17.8 million non-cash valuation allowance I just mentioned, was $32.5 million or a loss of $1.43 per diluted share. This compares to last year's Q4 adjusted net loss of $44.9 million or $1.98 per diluted share. To summarize, our underlying revenue and profitability was in line with what we had expected as evidenced by looking at our pretax loss, which in addition to being consistent with our expectations, has improved significantly versus the prior year period. Now, turning to a brief overview of our segment results for the Q4.

Speaker #3: Obviously, you've been managing for the downcycle, but, you're in a position to maximize the, the upside leverage?

Speaker #2: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, as we stand here today, you know, we're excited as we look forward. Just for a little bit of context in terms of the guidance for this year—North America, industry volume down 15 to 20 percent—you know, what does that really mean?

Speaker #2: Well, calendar year 25, the year that just ended, industry volume on the major categories that help drive our business was already 10 percent lower than the trough in a calendar year's 15 and 16.

Speaker #2: And so this year, if you assume that down 15 to 20, we're talking about industry volume 25 percent lower than the prior trough. So as we stand here, as well positioned as we are, obviously, we want the P&L to reflect more, but extremely confident in terms of, how quickly that can turn around and really flexing our muscle on the upside.

Bo Larsen: Our domestic agriculture segment realized sales of $406.7 million, reflecting a same-store sales decline of 22.8%, driven by continued softening in equipment demand as a result of weak grower profitability. Segment pretax loss improved to $9.9 million compared to adjusted pretax loss of $56.3 million in Q4 of the prior year, reflecting the actions we have taken to accelerate inventory reductions and the resulting improvement that we have achieved over the past 12 months. In our construction segment, same-store sales decreased 4.6% to $90.2 million, driven by lower equipment sales. Our inventory reduction initiatives have weighed on equipment margins in this segment as well. Adjusted pretax loss was $1 million compared to $1.1 million dollar loss in Q4 of the prior year.

Speaker #2: As things improve, even modestly in the right direction. So for sure, everything we've been working towards the last two. Years, isn't just about managing the downside, but it's about making sure that there were running things, ready for when things do turn around.

Speaker #2: All of our efforts on customer care strategy, driving the parts and service business, how do we support customers well, how do we, you know, gain, you know, maximum share of wallet by delivering what they need, all of that stuff is coming along.

Speaker #2: And I, I can appreciate that it's not necessarily something that, that you or investors see every day. But we just get more and more confidence and more excitement about the team we have, the, the playbook that we've been executing and how well positioned we are to, to really, kind of show our strength as, as, ultimately, you know, growers get support in the right direction and, and they see improved profitability.

Bo Larsen: In our Europe segment, sales increased 5.2% to $68.8 million, which included a $4.3 million net benefit related to foreign currency fluctuations. On a constant currency basis, revenue was more or less flat year-over-year, reflecting the normalization of demand following the EU subvention fund-driven strength, which ended in Q3 of this year. Pretax income for the segment was $1.8 million compared to a pretax loss of $1.8 million in Q4 of the prior year. Excluding restructuring and impairment charges associated with the Germany divestiture, adjusted pretax income was $5.4 million in this year's Q4. In our Australia segment, sales increased 16.7% to $76.1 million, compared to $65.3 million in Q4 last year, including a negligible foreign currency impact.

Speaker #3: Great. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Jackson with Northland Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker #3: Thanks very much. I got a few. I'm going to start with the bigger one and then some that are just more around the model.

Speaker #3: on the, on the larger you know, in terms of the guidance that you've set, I'm curious with regards to, what's baked into it, you know, rather than just, you know, the OEM guides itself.

Speaker #3: I mean, are you assuming that China comes in and honors its, commitments to buy more beans as we roll through 27? And, and is there anything baked into it with regards to, E15 or the, the, aviation fuel?

Speaker #3: That's my first question.

Speaker #2: Yeah, thanks, Ted. Yeah, so generally speaking, what we do have baked in is that, China essentially honors the, the commitments that have been put out there.

Bo Larsen: Pre-tax income for the Q4 of fiscal 2026 was $2.5 million compared to $2.3 million last year. Now briefly summarizing our full-year fiscal 2026 results. Total revenue was $2.4 billion for fiscal 2026, compared to $2.7 billion for fiscal 2025. Adjusted net loss for fiscal 2026 was $50.6 million, or $2.22 loss per diluted share, which includes the non-cash valuation allowance but excludes the charges related to the Germany divestiture I discussed earlier. This compares to an adjusted prior year net loss of $29.7 million, or $1.31 loss per diluted share. Now on to our balance sheet and inventory position. We had cash of $28 million and an adjusted debt-to-tangible net worth ratio of 1.7 times as of 31 January 2026, which remains well below our bank covenant of 3.5 times. For the full fiscal year, total equipment inventory decreased by $201 million to $725 million.

Speaker #2: You know, not materially anymore—less than that, certainly. If they did come to the table with more, that would help. And then, nothing on E15.

Speaker #2: So certainly that would be a, a shot in the arm and, and upside to what we've guided.

Speaker #3: Mm-hmm. And then, just another one kind of at a macro level with the, the war we have with Iran, which is, you know, now we're into several weeks of it.

Speaker #3: Have you, noticed any perceived shift in terms of sentiment within your territories with regards to that? I mean, you know, all I get is stuff out of the paper and I live in a pretty left-leaning, local paper of environment.

Speaker #3: So, most about what I get is pretty negative with regards to the farmer, but is the, is the farmer feeling anything in terms of impact at this point with regards to higher fertilizer prices, diesel prices?

Speaker #3: I mean, we're not even in the planting season. I mean, has there been some kind of shift, some kind of additional concern? Just a little color there.

Speaker #2: Yeah, certainly a, a few moving pieces there. And, and, you know, even differences from our U.S. farmers to our Australian farmers. So just looking at some of the routes, you know, through the strata hormones there and, and you look at like that ins, that's impacting fertilizer and fuel prices even more for our Australian customers.

Bo Larsen: As Bryan described, this more than doubled our $100 million target for the year. It is a meaningful accomplishment in this environment, and it positions us well heading into fiscal 2027. Importantly, as part of that inventory reduction, we saw a significant improvement in the amount of aged equipment we have on our lots. Aged equipment, which we consider to be equipment that we have had for longer than 12 months, peaked in the Q2 of fiscal 2026 and declined by approximately 45% to $174 million in the second half of this fiscal year. This improvement in the health of our inventories has started to show up in higher equipment margins in the back half of the fiscal year. We still have work to do on reducing the amount of aged equipment we have, and we are confident we'll continue to make progress on that in fiscal 2027.

Speaker #2: Still able to get it, but certainly a delayed and elevated pricing. And then, you know, similar impacts to Europe and then the U.S.

Speaker #2: there. so those are some additional increases to input costs, which are already high. You know, you look at over the years here, fertilizer has, been the, the input that's generally gone up the most and has the most impact on their P&L.

Speaker #2: And, so with that becoming harder to get here and increasing further is also a, a negative. But overall, actually, you know, the, as the corn market and other, other commodities tick up here and kind of follow along with the price of crude, that, that has an opportunity to be a positive as that expands and, you know, maybe potentially here outpaces the increase in inputs, which is certainly a, a likely scenario.

Speaker #2: So, there's definitely a number of things in play there, Ted, but a scenario where it actually is, likely more—potentially more—positive for our growers.

Bo Larsen: With that, I'll finish by sharing our initial outlook for fiscal 2027. Starting with our top-line modeling assumptions across our segments. For the domestic ag segment, we expect revenue to be down in the range of 15% to 20%, which is consistent with the depressed cash crop industry outlook we've discussed today. Looking ahead, we believe we are back in sync with broader industry dynamics following our aggressive inventory reduction activity over the last year and a half. Our construction segment is expected to be in the range of flat to up 5%, which aligns to the more favorable industry fundamentals that are benefiting from infrastructure and other sector-specific tailwinds. Our European segment is expected to be down in the range of 20% to 25%.

Speaker #3: What do you think would be neutral—and it may be more positive, but it sounds like it seems like it—your view is at worst it's a net, net?

Speaker #2: Yeah, I think it depends how long it lingers on, and what happens with the commodity markets. There, it does start to spread a bit.

Speaker #2: So as corn goes to, if, if corn were to go to six and then it, it lingered on further and potentially to seven as an example, it, it starts to pull away from what the increase in fertilizer prices has been, especially, you know, for a lot of our growers here in the U.S.

Speaker #2: and the Midwest. They, they pre-buy a good chunk of their fertilizer. So it could end up being more of a 27 calendar year impact for them on that.

Bo Larsen: This decline reflects our exit from Germany, which contributed approximately $50 million of revenue this past year and reflects the normalization of sales in Romania following the strong performance in fiscal 2025. As a reminder, this segment grew 45% in fiscal 2026. Excluding this difficult comparison, we expect modest improvements in industry volumes off cyclical lows, but the Eastern European market remains challenged by the same broader ag cycle dynamics as our domestic ag business. For our Australia segment, we expect revenue to be up in the range of 10 to 15%. This growth includes activity from the acquisition we completed last fall and the modest improvement in industry volumes that Bryan previously mentioned. From a margin perspective, our fiscal 2027 assumptions consider consolidated full-year equipment margin to be approximately 8.4%, which compares to fiscal 2026's full-year consolidated equipment margin of 7.3%.

Speaker #2: So again, there's, you know, as weird as it sounds, there's, there's some upside potential there depending on how this plays out for our growers.

Speaker #3: Okay. and then just a couple mile questions and I'll let other people take over. Bo, I was curious what the view was for CapEx for 2027 and then maybe, a discussion about, tax rate given all the kind of moving parts in there, either at a rate, you know, percentage rate or something around a dollar.

Speaker #4: Yeah, yeah, yeah. So first, for CapEx—I mean, in this environment, as you would imagine—being prudent, pretty prudent there and pulling back.

Speaker #4: So excluding any investment in, in rental fleet, which kind of comes in and out, we're guiding to about 15 million dollars of CapEx really just, pulling back and, and prudent, levels there, a little bit on facility and some vehicles for example.

Speaker #4: But smaller than I would say would be typical from a tax rate perspective. There can certainly, I mean, as a general statement, the tax rate in the U.S.

Bo Larsen: This margin assumption reflects improved inventory health but still factors in the need to finish driving down aged inventory. It also reflects broader industry expectations that North America industry volumes will be down 15% to 20%, which implies the lowest level since the 1970s. Given that context, we are happy with how well we are positioned to manage through the trough and confident we'll return to normalized equipment margin levels as industry conditions improve. Operating expense dollars are expected to decrease year over year, although we'll continue to invest in our customer care strategy, which is supporting stability in our parts and service businesses. Overall, operating expenses are expected to be approximately 17% of sales. Floor plan interest expense is expected to decline by approximately 25% following the significant inventory reduction that we achieved last year.

Speaker #4: is expected to be near zero, near zero. There will be a little bit of noise there with some deferred, but essentially the valuation allowances is largely wiping that out.

Speaker #4: And given the significance of, of the U.S. to the, to the rest of it, right, it, it, it really drags the whole thing down near zero.

Speaker #4: So on the release, we had guided to a range of zero to a million of total tax expense. From an Australia perspective, no real noise there.

Speaker #4: You can think about their rate in that 30% range. and then from a Europe perspective, again, what their blended rate in the, the high teens, that's what I would expect.

Speaker #4: balancing all out, a lot of this stuff is netting down close to, zero would be our expectation for the year. one more thing on that too, I guess just to make it clear, the, the need for evaluation allowances kind of an established standard that's been out there in terms of a three-year rolling loss.

Speaker #4: We went through the same thing in the last downturn, put on evaluation allowance in a couple years later, took it off. you know, the cyclicality of our business and especially from a dealer P&L perspective, some could certainly argue that, you know, this three-year rule isn't necessarily accomplishing what it, it's trying to.

Bo Larsen: In absolute terms, interest expense will continue to decline as we further reduce aged inventory throughout the year. Bringing it all together, we are introducing a fiscal 2027 modeling assumption range of an adjusted loss of $1.25 to $1.75, which compares to the $2.22 adjusted loss we realized in fiscal 2026. It is worth noting that given the US tax valuation allowance that was booked this quarter, we will have a very low tax rate for fiscal 2027.

Speaker #4: And long story short, all I'm trying to say is, high degree of confidence that a couple years later we're going to take that back off and you're going to see a big positive, which of course we'll call out as releasing the valuation allowance.

Speaker #3: Okay, thanks for the answers. I'll get out of line.

Bo Larsen: With most of the tax expense and/or benefits being recognized in our international segments. We also thought it would be helpful to provide some specific below-the-line expectations in our press release to help bridge to our adjusted EPS outlook. Further, we have also added adjusted EBITDA to our outlook to help provide a clearer view of the operating performance we are achieving today and as we look into the future as the cycle unfolds. We are also guiding to adjusted EBITDA in the range of $17 to 29 million, which compares to the $13.9 million we generated in fiscal 2026. In summary, despite the expectation for historically low industry volumes for our domestic ag segment, we are positioned to benefit from the aggressive inventory reduction posture we have taken over the last couple of years.

Speaker #1: Thank you. As a reminder, if anyone has any questions, you may press star one on your telephone keypad to join the queue. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Jackson with Northland Securities.

Speaker #1: Please proceed with your question.

Speaker #3: Dang, I own you guys. Well, let's talk about some sports stuff. Now, a couple other questions for, for you, Bo, just around the model.

Speaker #3: So, again, depreciation and amortization and then, the, the impairment charges. Can you give some kind of color of what you see that, rolling through in 2027?

Speaker #3: And then over on OPEX, when I think about OPEX, you know, you're, you're going to have OPEX down, you're going to have investments though in some other things.

Bryan Knutson: Dramatically, this positions us to improve margins this fiscal year and begin building back our earnings power at an accelerated pace as the cycle eventually turns back in our favor. For the time being, we continue to set prudent expectations and look forward to demonstrating our execution in the quarters ahead. This concludes our prepared comments. Operator, we are now ready for the question and answer session of our call.

Bo Larsen: Dramatically, this positions us to improve margins this fiscal year and begin building back our earnings power at an accelerated pace as the cycle eventually turns back in our favor. For the time being, we continue to set prudent expectations and look forward to demonstrating our execution in the quarters ahead. This concludes our prepared comments. Operator, we are now ready for the question and answer session of our call.

Speaker #3: So I assume the down is on sales commissions, given the volumes, but maybe talk a little bit about, you know, how I should think about sales. Typically, I've kind of thought about it as your sales portion of your OPEX, or your selling commission, being about 25% of equipment gross.

Speaker #3: Margin, would that kind of assumption still hold as we think of 26 or, or given the weak volumes, are you going to have to kind of, you know what I'm saying, you know, make up a little bit to make sure those guys get a living wage?

Operator: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Liam Burke with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker #3: Those are my next two questions.

Speaker #2: Yeah, so recently, I'll, I'll break those into pieces. You'll have to remind me if I forget one. I'll, I'll start on the commission side of things.

Speaker #2: And recently our commissions has, has been north of that 25% mark. In a healthy environment with normal, margins, it's, it's in that 25%. So I'd say we're coming down closer to the 25%.

Speaker #2: We've been elevated above that, but kind of normalizing here as our margins are coming up. So that's how I would think about that from a commission perspective.

Liam Burke: Thank you. Good morning, Bryan. Good morning, Bo.

Speaker #2: you know, just broadly on OPEX, and again, this isn't, just, you know, something that changes in a month. We've been at this now. Over the last couple years as, as we've looked at where the industry, has been going and what we've needed to do.

Bryan Knutson: Morning.

Liam Burke: I mean, we were looking at a best case in the corn pricing of about $5. It's inching up there. It's improving directionally, not at $5 yet, obviously. Is there any movement by the farmer community to start getting interested in loosening the purse strings? Or does it have to be a $5 and above where everybody gets comfortable on the equipment purchases?

Speaker #2: And in a largely speaking, the rest of our OPEX, is, is people. And it's our people that are helping support our customers. So we've managed headcount down prudently.

Speaker #2: but back to the, question that kind of started it, all of you guys positioned for when things turn around. And that's the balance that you have to strike.

Speaker #2: we've got a great team, that supports our customers well across our entire footprint and all of our geographies. And just managing, prudently down as much as we can, but without overdoing it.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah, there's definitely been some upside here in the last week or two in the market, so that's been positive to see. Like you said, for a lot of growers, we're still below break even at these levels, and then you just take some of the uncertainty as well. You know, plausibly somewhere between another $0.50 and $1 on corn here, which with certain fundamentals coming together, you know, looks like there is a possibility for at this point. That too looks more optimistic than even a month ago. We'll see where that tracks and then just consistency as well.

Speaker #2: That's kind of the balance we've struck. So that drives a lot of the, the decline, in OPEX there. so from a 17% perspective, you know, in absolute dollar terms, I feel good about the work we've done.

Speaker #2: The 17% is more reflective of the, of the pullback we're expecting here in, in North America ag. Remind me where we started here. You had two others.

Speaker #3: Yeah, I'd ask just about, kind of just thinking in 2027, how to think about depreciation and amortization as we're driving through towards our, our... And it's just been, you know, for the last several quarters, a lot of impairment charges rolling through.

Bryan Knutson: You know, just at this point, with the long-term fundamentals that are in place, the current supply and demand, and the oversupply we have of corn and soybeans, directionally, they're looking at, you know, just a short-term spike doesn't give them a lot of confidence. As things progress here and if the conflict continues on and we see increased stability there, and again, prices uptick further, that definitely will help confidence. That's something that we're monitoring closely. You know, we've also been to DC quite a bit in the last year, lobbying for our farmers and trying to do what we can for commodity prices. We'll be there again next week.

Speaker #3: Are we going to continue to see that through 27 or is that going to, dial back?

Speaker #2: Yeah, good question. So, a good portion of the impairment charges were specifically related to the Germany divestiture and wind-down activities. There's a small amount of Germany activity left here this year.

Speaker #2: I don't expect it, it, it'll be a negligible P&L impact. and then from, you know, other, impairments, I would say, you know, expecting that to be, you know, a little bit lower as well.

Speaker #2: I mean, south of $2 million in total is kind of the thought process there. just as you're looking at your normal, you know, impairment analyses based on where you're at from an industry perspective.

Bryan Knutson: Friday, 27 March next week, there's a celebration of Agriculture Day at the White House that we're looking forward to. As we get near the end of the month here, you know, there should be some stuff coming out with the RVOs, and we've been really pushing for E15, passing that into law and greater adoption, you know, and all the benefits that could come with that for, you know, reducing prices at the pump as well as just energy independence and again, helping alleviate some of the ongoing oversupply of corn.

Speaker #2: So, yeah, I guess, relief—relief in that regard. And then, sorry, there was one other one here. What did you say before that?

Speaker #3: No, I just—I just kind of asked since I had you, and I, you know, it seems like it's my Q&A, so I just kind of decided I'd ask what you thought depreciation and amortization might be.

Speaker #2: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yep. Sorry about that. So, no, yeah, depreciation and amortization has been kind of in the mid-30s, $35 million-ish. Expecting it to come down slightly, really not changing drastically there.

Liam Burke: Great. Thank you. Understanding that the timing of an upcycle is difficult to predict, but you're comfortable in some future upcycle that you're sized right to maximize the leverage in how the business is run? Obviously, you've been managing for the down cycle, but you're in a position to maximize the upside leverage.

Speaker #3: Okay. And then the impairment—just to make sure I understand—when I think about '27, aggregate across the year, you see like a continued amount of small impairment charges of roughly $2 million across the whole year.

Speaker #2: Yeah, and that, that's really, fairly similar to what, this year was ex, Germany activity as well. So, not, not much there.

Speaker #3: Okay. Side note, it was mine was the only guy getting Q&A. I would have put more effort into writing, rewriting my questions. So.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, as we stand here today, you know, we're excited as we look forward. I just, for a little bit of context, in terms of the guidance for this year. North America industry volume down 15 to 20%. You know, what does that really mean? Well, calendar year 2025, the year that just ended, industry volume on the major categories that help drive our business was already 10% lower than the trough in calendar years 2015 and 2016. This year, if you assume that down 15 to 20, we're talking about industry volume 25% lower than the prior trough.

Speaker #2: Hey, well, you know, one thing, just, take, taking the opportunity for the, the broader audience and all of the analysts covering us, across our sales mix by geography, so ag down 15 to 20, CE flat of 5, 20 to 25, Australia up 10 to 15, blended average rise, wise, midpoint of the guidance implies revenue down 14 to 15 percent.

Speaker #2: But I, I would say as we've thought about it, and it's certainly not a perfect, science, quarter to quarter, I, I'm thinking more a Q1 down like 20-ish percent and Q2, Q3, Q4.

Speaker #2: Somewhere in the, you know, down 12–13% range. That gets you to the full year. So, in other words, Q1 comp is down sharper, and I just wanted to call that out so people work that into their expectations.

Bryan Knutson: As we stand here, as well-positioned as we are, obviously we want the P&L to reflect more, but extremely confident in terms of, how quickly that can turn around and really flexing our muscle on the upside as things improve even modestly in the right direction. For sure, everything we've been working towards the last two years, isn't just about managing the downside, but it's about making sure that we're running things, ready for when things do turn around. All of our efforts on customer care strategy, driving the parts and service business. How do we support customers well? How do we, you know, gain, you know, maximum share of wallet by delivering what they need?

Speaker #2: Hey, if you think about just how the cadence of last year was, the first half had about 47% of our revenue, whereas historically it's about 45%, right?

Speaker #2: And, and that was just the theme of last, last year and, and kind of softening as we went through the year. So normalizing that a bit, just wanted to put that out there.

Speaker #3: Hey, that does bring up one kind of—just a little tip, tiny question. You know, you typically do have a stronger fourth quarter. You did have one this year.

Bryan Knutson: All of that stuff is coming along, and I can appreciate that it's not necessarily something that you or investors get to see every day. We just get more and more confidence and more excitement about the team we have, the playbook that we've been executing, and how well-positioned we are to really kinda show our strength as ultimately, you know, growers get support in the right direction and they see improved profitability.

Speaker #3: I'd assume most of it this year was less about farmers coming in, you know, flush and buying and more about, you know, tightened, you know, trying to push off inventory in your efforts to, you know, you know, take your working capital to where you want it to be.

Speaker #3: So one is, am I correct with that? And then two is, as I think about 2027, I mean, we are going to be at a point where, you know, I would imagine by the time we exit the year, recovery or not, you know, your inventories are going to be aligned.

Ted Jackson: Great. Thank you.

Liam Burke: Great. Thank you.

Speaker #3: The, the trough is, you know, well beyond a typical, you know, trough of a, of a, of a cycle. Do you see in the fourth quarter of this year, you know, oh, and you're going to have, you know, more of an impact with regards to some of the things with the, Big Beautiful Bill that you would see a little bit more of a flush from the, farmer in the, in the fourth quarter of 27?

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Jackson with Northland Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Ted Jackson: Thanks very much. I got a few. I'm gonna start with the bigger one and then some that are just more around the model. On the larger, you know, in terms of the guidance that you've set, I'm curious with regards to what's baked into it, you know, rather than just, you know, the OEM guides itself. I mean, are you assuming that China comes in and honors its commitments to buy more beans as we roll through 2027? And is there anything baked into it with regards to E15 or the aviation fuel? That's my first question.

Speaker #3: So those are my two, is kind of a little color maybe on 26 and how you think about 27 in the fourth quarter. And then I will get out of the line.

Speaker #2: Yeah, as you pointed out, Ted, in Q4, you know, again, I just give tremendous compliments to our team and the disciplined execution that we did.

Speaker #2: You know, when we came out at the beginning of the year with our $100 million inventory reduction target, that was an extremely lofty goal.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. Thanks, Ted. Yeah. Generally speaking, what we do have baked in is that China essentially honors the commitments that have been put out there. You know, not materially any more or less than that. Certainly, if they did come to the table with more, that would help. Nothing on E15, so certainly that would be a shot in the arm and an upside to what we've guided.

Speaker #2: And when our team more than doubled that reduction, that was due to our efforts and, you know, really boots on the ground and, and creative marketing campaigns and, and, you know, pulling growers off the sidelines and, and getting rid of, that excess inventory.

Speaker #2: So, you know, great execution. And like you said, that wasn't just farmers coming in in Q4 and looking to purchase. So, and then as we, you know, that does, again, position us tremendously well.

Ted Jackson: Mm-hmm. Just another one kind of at a macro level. With the war we have with Iran, which is, you know, now we're into several weeks of it, have you noticed any perceived shift in terms of sentiment within your territories with regards to that? I mean, you know, all I get is stuff out of the paper, and I live in a pretty left-leaning local paper environment. Most of what I get is pretty negative with regards to the farmer. Is the farmer feeling anything in terms of impact at this point with regards to higher fertilizer prices, diesel prices? I mean, we're not even in the planting season. I mean, has there been some kind of shift, some kind of additional concern? Just a little color there.

Speaker #2: Again, I think you hear that, that confidence for how good we feel about where our business is positioned right now. We've got, a little bit of cleanup yet to do in, in a few select use categories and, and some certain, select seasonal, new equipment categories.

Speaker #2: We'll work through that here throughout this year. But that's really fine-tuning—every dealer I've ever seen always has a mix of that in any economy.

Speaker #2: So, we're, we're just going beyond even what we normally would do, you know, we're just getting into an extremely healthy state here. So we're positioned when this does uptick and we've done many of the things internally very stringent cost controls and, and expense reductions as, as Bo pointed out.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. Certainly a few moving pieces there, and you know, even differences from our US farmers to our Australian farmers. Just looking at some of the routes, you know, through the Strait of Hormuz there, and you look at, like, that's impacting fertilizer and fuel prices even more for our Australian customers. Still able to get it, but certainly delayed and elevated pricing. You know, similar impacts to Europe and then the US there. Those are some additional increases to input costs, which are already high. You know, you look at over the years here, fertilizer has been the input that's generally gone up the most and has the most impact on their P&L. With that becoming harder to get here and increasing further is also a negative.

Speaker #2: And we'll stay lean here and then, you know, as it recovers, which at some point it will, as, as we talked about the replacement demand, just continues to, to grow here and, and just waiting for, you know, that, that uptick and profitability.

Speaker #2: for our growers, you know, as it depends on the, the commodity prices. And again, how that ties back to the, the supply and demand ratios and, and then, our, our, cattle producers, livestock producers, you know, our, are still sitting quite well.

Speaker #2: And we look forward to that continuing. You know, the more years that they do well, the more they'll start to spend. So there's certainly potential there.

Bryan Knutson: Overall, actually, you know, as the corn market and other commodities tick up here and kind of follow along with the price of crude, that has an opportunity to be a positive as that expands and, you know, maybe potentially here outpaces the increase in inputs, which is certainly a likely scenario. There's definitely a number of things in play there, Ted, but a scenario where it actually is likely more potentially more positive for our growers.

Speaker #2: And then the fundamentals and construction, you know, there's, big data center that has, been going on here for a while. Two-hour south of our office or an hour and a half here, another one going upright in Fargo that's starting here at $3 billion data center.

Speaker #2: And again, throughout our Midwest footprint. So, and then just overall, you know, some of the things with infrastructure and, and, and at some point here, you know, we've got to address the residential housing shortage.

Speaker #2: So that's also a good long-term fundamental for construction. So there's a lot of good fundamentals in play here. Again, we'll see what happens with the commodity prices and with the RVOs here, especially in, you know, potentially, as I mentioned, as soon as the end of March here. E15 is a great opportunity for our country, and it's right there, and it would really help alleviate this oversupply.

Ted Jackson: Would you think it'd be neutral, and it may be more positive? It sounds like it seems like your view is at worst it's a net net.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. I think it depends how long it lingers on and what happens with the commodity markets. It does start to spread a bit. As corn goes to 6, if corn were to go to 6, and then it lingered on further and potentially to 7, as an example, it starts to pull away from what the increase in fertilizer prices has been, especially, you know, for a lot of our growers here in the US and the Midwest. They pre-buy a good chunk of their fertilizer, so it could end up being more of a 2027 calendar year impact for them on that. Again, you know, as weird as it sounds, there's some upside potential there depending on how this plays out for our growers.

Speaker #2: And if we address some, some fertilizer constraint and pricing issues, which again, through further research and development and some other things could, could help with.

Speaker #2: And then the tables really set. I mean, the, the American, grower can, can raise a lot of corn if, if given the opportunity and, and we can supply the world a lot of corn and beans and other commodities.

Speaker #2: And, and, the way the equipment's advancing and how professional our growers are looking, you know, the stage is, is set very well here. And as we go into 27, our, our company's never going to have been positioned better.

Ted Jackson: Okay. Then just a couple of model questions, and I'll let other people take over. Bo, I was curious what the view was for CapEx for 2027, and then maybe a discussion about tax rate, given all the kind of moving parts in there, either at a rate, you know, that percentage rate or something around a dollar.

Speaker #3: All right. One, one more thing real quick, just from a Q4 perspective. You know, Q4 is a big pre-sale quarter. and it was last year as well.

Speaker #3: So a lot of equipment that was being delivered was deals that were being discussed in the summer and early fall. So I'd, I'd point to the same thing here.

Speaker #3: you know, this summer and, and early fall will really set the stage for what the end of the year looks like. Obviously, there can be some incremental buying at the end of the year and there always is.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. First for CapEx, I mean, in this environment, as you would imagine, being prudent, pretty prudent there and pulling back. Excluding any investment in rental fleet, which kind of comes in and out, we're guiding to about $15 million of CapEx. Really just pulling back in prudent levels there, a little bit on facility and some vehicles, for example. Smaller than I would say would be typical. From a tax rate perspective, there can certainly. I mean, as a general statement.

Bo Larsen: Yeah. First for CapEx, I mean, in this environment, as you would imagine, being prudent, pretty prudent there and pulling back. Excluding any investment in rental fleet, which kind of comes in and out, we're guiding to about $15 million of CapEx. Really just pulling back in prudent levels there, a little bit on facility and some vehicles, for example. Smaller than I would say would be typical. From a tax rate perspective, there can certainly. I mean, as a general statement.

Speaker #3: But, but that's a big one. We set prudent expectations based on where the market's at today. Bryan mentioned several factors—we've talked about several factors today—that could move it, you know, north of that.

Speaker #3: But we've set expectations based on what has materialized thus far. But, you know, as usual, for every year here, as we really get into the summer and we see what that pre-sale looks like, we work with OEMs to really see where the market is.

Speaker #3: That'll set the stage more for what the back end of the year looks like.

Bo Larsen: The tax rate in the US is expected to be near zero. There will be a little bit of noise there with some deferred, but essentially the valuation allowances is largely wiping that out. Given the significance of the US to the rest of it, right, it really drags the whole thing down near zero. On the release, we had guided to a range of $0 to $1 million of total tax expense. From an Australia perspective, no real noise there. You can think about their rate in that 30% range. From a Europe perspective, again, their blended rate in the high teens, that's what I would expect. Balancing all out, a lot of this stuff is netting down close to zero would be our expectation for the year.

Speaker #4: Okay. Thanks for everything.

Speaker #3: Thanks.

Speaker #1: Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. Therefore, I'll now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Again, I just want to thank our team for their buying in tremendous execution and discipline to make the hard decisions and put forth all the effort they did to position us where we are today.

Speaker #2: And I thank everybody on the call for your participation and look forward to updating you next quarter on our results.

Speaker #1: Thank you. And this concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation. Have a great day.

Bo Larsen: One more thing on that too, I guess, just to make it clear. The need for a valuation allowance is kind of an established standard that's been out there in terms of a three-year rolling loss. We went through the same thing in the last downturn, put on a valuation allowance, and a couple of years later took it off. You know, the cyclicality of our business, and especially from a dealer P&L perspective, some could certainly argue that, you know, this three-year rule isn't necessarily accomplishing what it's trying to. Long story short, all I'm trying to say is high degree of confidence that a couple of years later, we're gonna take that back off, and you're gonna see a big positive, which of course we'll call out as releasing the valuation allowance.

Ted Jackson: Okay, thanks for the answers. I'll get out of the line.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, if anyone has any questions, you may press star one on your telephone keypad to join the queue. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Jackson with Northland Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Ted Jackson: Dang, I own you guys. Well, let's talk about some sports stuff. No, a couple other questions for you, Bo, just around the model. Again, depreciation and amortization, and then the impairment charges. Can you give some kind of color of where we see that rolling through in 2027? Then over on OpEx, when I think about OpEx, you know, you're gonna have OpEx down. You're gonna have investments, though, in some other things. I assume the down is on sales commissions given the volumes. Maybe talk a little bit about, you know, the how as you think about sales. Typically I've kind of thought about it as your sales portion of your OpEx, your selling commission being about 25% of Equipment Gross margin.

Ted Jackson: Would that kind of assumption still hold as we think about 2026? Or, given the weak volumes, are you gonna have to kind of, you know what I'm saying, make up a little bit to make sure those guys get a living wage? There's my next 2 questions.

Bo Larsen: Yeah. Recently, I'll break those into pieces. You'll have to remind me if I forget one. I'll start on the commission side of things. Recently, our commissions has been north of that 25% mark. In a healthy environment with normal margins, it's in that 25%. I'd say we're coming down closer to the 25%. We've been elevated above that, but kind of normalizing here as our margins are coming up. That's how I would think about that from a commission perspective. You know, just broadly on OpEx, and again, this isn't just, you know, something that changes in a month. We've been at this now over the last couple of years as we've looked at where the industry has been going and what we've needed to do.

Bo Larsen: Largely speaking, the rest of our OpEx is people, and it's our people that are helping support our customers. We've managed headcount down prudently. Back to the question that kind of started all of you guys positioned for when things turn around, and that's the balance that you have to strike. We've got a great team that supports our customers well across our entire footprint and all of our geographies and just managing prudently down as much as we can, but without overdoing it. That's kind of the balance we've struck. That drives a lot of the decline in OpEx there. From a 17% perspective, you know, in absolute dollar terms, I feel good about the work we've done.

Bo Larsen: The 17% is more reflective of the pullback we're expecting here in North America Ag. Remind me where we started here. You had two others.

Ted Jackson: Yeah. I'd ask just about kind of just thinking in 2027, how to think about depreciation and amortization as we're driving through, you know, towards our EBITDA numbers. You know, I mean, it's just been, you know, for the last several quarters, a lot of impairment charges rolling through. Are we gonna continue to see that through 2027 or is that gonna dial back?

Bo Larsen: Yeah, good question. A good portion of the impairment charges were specifically related to the Germany divestiture and wind down activities. There's a small amount of Germany activity left here this year. I don't expect it. It'll be a negligible P&L impact. From, you know, other impairments, I would say, you know, expecting that to be a little bit lower as well. I mean, south of $2 million in total is kind of the thought process there, just as you're looking at your normal, you know, impairment analyses based on where you're at from an industry perspective. Yeah, I guess relief in that regard. Sorry, there was one other one here. What did you say before that?

Ted Jackson: No, I just kinda asked since I had you, and I, you know, it seems like it's my Q&A. I've just kinda decided I'd ask what you thought depreciation, amortization might be.

Bo Larsen: Oh, yeah. Yep, sorry about that. No, yeah, depreciation and amortization has been kind of in the mid-30s, $35 million-ish. Expecting it to come down slightly, really not changing drastically there.

Ted Jackson: The impairments, to make sure I understand, when I think about $27 aggregate across the year, you see like a continued amount of small impairment charges of roughly $2 million across the whole year.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. That's really fairly similar to what this year was ex Germany activity as well. Not much there.

Ted Jackson: Okay. If I had known I was the only guy getting Q&A, I would have put more effort into pre-writing the questions.

Bryan Knutson: Hey, well, you know, one thing, just taking the opportunity for the broader audience and all of the analysts covering us. Across our sales mix by geography. Ag down 15 to 20, CE flat to up 5, Europe down 20 to 25, Australia up 10 to 15. Blended average revenue-wise, midpoint of the guidance implies revenue down 14 to 15%. I would say, as we've thought about it, and it's certainly not a perfect science quarter to quarter. I'm thinking more Q1 down like 20-ish% and Q2, Q3, Q4 somewhere in the, you know, down 12, 13% range, that gets you to the full year. In other words, Q1 comp down sharper. Just wanted to call that out so people work that into their expectations.

Bryan Knutson: Hey, if you think about just how the cadence of last year was, first half had about 47% of our revenue, whereas historically it's about 45%, right? And that was just the theme of last year and kind of softening as we went through the year. Normalizing that a bit, just wanted to put that out there.

Ted Jackson: Hey, that does bring up one kind of just a little tiny question. You know, you typically do have a stronger Q4. You did have one this year. I'd assume most of it this year was less about farmers coming in, you know, flush and buying and more about, you know, tightened, you know, trying to push off inventory and your efforts to, you know, you know, take your working capital to where you want it to be. One, am I correct with that? Two is, as I think about 2027, I mean, we are gonna be at a point where, you know, I would imagine by the time we exit the year, recovery or not, you know, your inventories are gonna be aligned.

Ted Jackson: The trough is, you know, well beyond a typical, you know, trough of a cycle. Do you see in the Q4 this year, you know, how you're gonna have, you know, more of an impact with regards to some of the things with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that you would see a little bit more of a flush from the farmer in the Q4 of 2027. So those are my two. Just kind of a little color maybe on 2026 and how you think about 2027 in the Q4. Then I will get out of the line.

Bryan Knutson: Yeah. As you pointed out, Ted, in Q4, you know, again, I just give a tremendous compliments to our team and the disciplined execution that we did. You know, when we came out at the beginning of the year with our $100 million inventory reduction target. That was an extremely lofty goal, and our team more than doubled that reduction. That was due to our efforts and, you know, really boots on the ground, and creative marketing campaigns, and, you know, pulling growers off the sidelines, and getting rid of that excess inventory. You know, great execution. Like you said, that wasn't just farmers coming in in Q4 and looking to purchase. You know, that does again position us tremendously well.

Bryan Knutson: Again, I think you hear that confidence from how good we feel about where our business is positioned right now. We've got a little bit of cleanup yet to do in a few select use categories and some certain select seasonal new equipment categories. We'll work through that here throughout this year. But that's really fine-tuning. Every dealer I've ever seen always has a mix of that in any economy. So we're just going beyond even what we normally would do. You know, we're just getting into an extremely healthy state here. So we're positioned when this does uptick. We've done many of the things internally, very stringent cost controls and expense reductions, as Bo pointed out. We'll stay lean here.

Bryan Knutson: You know, as it recovers, which at some point it will, as we talked about the replacement demand, just continues to grow here and just waiting for, you know, that uptick in profitability, for our growers, you know, as it depends on the commodity prices and again, how that ties back to the supply and demand ratios. Our cattle producers, livestock producers, you know, are still sitting quite well. We look forward to that continuing. You know, the more years that they do well, the more they'll start to spend. There's certainly potential there. The fundamentals in construction.

Bryan Knutson: You know, there's a big data center that has been going on here for a while, 2 hours south of our office or 1.5 hours here. Another one going up right in Fargo that's starting here, a $3 billion data center. Again, throughout our Midwest footprint. Then just overall, you know, some of the things with infrastructure and at some point here, you know, we've got to address the residential housing shortage. That's also a good long-term fundamental for construction. There's a lot of good fundamentals in play here. Again, we'll see what happens with the commodity prices and with the RVOs here, especially in, you know, potentially, as I mentioned, as soon as the end of March here.

Bryan Knutson: E15 is a great opportunity for our country and it's right there, and it would really help alleviate this oversupply. If we address some fertilizer constraint and pricing issues, which again, through further research and development, and some other things could help with. Then the table's really set. I mean, the American grower can raise a lot of corn if given the opportunity, and the way the equipment's advancing and how professional our growers are looking, you know, the stage is set very well here. As we go into 2027, our company's never gonna have been positioned better.

Bo Larsen: Yeah. One more thing real quick, just from a Q4 perspective. You know, Q4 is a big presale quarter, and it was last year as well. A lot of equipment that was being delivered was deals that were being discussed in the summer and early fall. I'd point to the same thing here. You know, this summer and early fall will really set the stage for what the end of the year looks like. Obviously, there can be some incremental buying at the end of the year, and there always is. That's a big one. We set prudent expectations based on where the market's at today. Bryan mentioned several factors. We've talked about several factors today that can move it, you know, north of that. We've set expectations based on what has materialized thus far.

Bo Larsen: You know, as usual for every year here, as we really get into the summer and we see what that presale looks like, we work with OEMs to really see where the market is, that'll set the stage more for what the back end of the year looks like.

Bryan Knutson: Okay. Thanks for everything.

Ted Jackson: Okay. Thanks for everything.

Bo Larsen: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Therefore, I'll now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Bryan Knutson: Again, I just wanna thank our team for their buy-in, tremendous execution, and discipline to make the hard decisions and put forth all the effort they did to position us where we are today. I thank everybody on the call for your participation, and look forward to updating you next quarter on our results.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation. Have a great day.

Q4 2026 Titan Machinery Inc Earnings Call

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