Gerd Aalborg Aas: Good morning, and welcome to Hydro's Q3 2026 Presentation and Q&A. We will start off with a presentation by the President and CEO, Eivind Kallevik, and a financial update from CFO Trond Olaf Christophersen, before we finish off with the Q&A session. Please note that if you want to ask question in Q&A after the presentation, please write your question in the chat you should see on your screen. I will later ask the question on your behalf directly to Eivind and to Trond Olaf. With that, I turn the microphone over to you, Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik: Thank you, Gerd, and good morning from me as well. Let me start with safety as we always do. Our injury and high-risk incident rates remain at low levels, but the development over the last year is somewhat worrying. Both the TRI and the HRIR rates are creeping up from the record lows that we reported a few quarters ago. In response to this, we are intensifying our efforts towards our target of zero injuries and high-risk incidents. For me, safety really starts with our responsibility to ensure that everybody working for Hydro returns home safely every day. But it is also closely linked to operational excellence, because staying sharp on safety helps us prevent incidents, allowing us to spend more time on improving our operations and less time on responding when things go wrong.
Eivind Kallevik: The Q3 was characterized by continued strong operation performance across most of our BAs, as well as good progress on our strategic agenda. The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at NOK 9.1 billion, with free cash flow coming in at NOK 1.4 billion. That is affected by higher metal prices, associated working capital requirements, as well as some timing effects that we will come back to. While this development reflects the current market environment, improving the cash conversion and working capital efficiency remains a clear priority for us going forward and into the Q4. At Alunorte, decisive action enabled us to restore regular operations following the temporary gas disruption in gas supply in August. However, higher energy costs will continue to affect the refinery going into the Q4.
Eivind Kallevik: Also happy to announce that we produced our first aluminum at our HalZero tech facility, an important milestone towards our ambition of eliminating CO2 emissions from electrolysis and from anode consumption. At the same time, commercial momentum for our recycled and low-carbon offerings continues, with new agreements and customer partnerships in both the European as well as the US market. We also signed two new power purchase agreements this quarter with Statkraft and Varberg Energi, securing an additional 8.9 terawatt hours towards 2040 and further strengthening our long-term power position. Alumina production remained stable despite the gas supply disruption, while our Norwegian smelters achieved record high liquid metal production. Power production was somewhat lower this quarter, largely reflecting the hydrological conditions, while Extrusions delivered sales volume growth. As such, adjusted ROACE came in at 12.5%, well above the target of 10% over this cycle.
Eivind Kallevik: Let me turn to Alunorte, where we took decisive action to address the disruptions to our gas supply in August. Following supply constraints from CELBA, Hydro was forced to temporarily reduce alumina production to around 50% of capacity. We secured regulatory approval to import gas directly and reached a temporary agreement for access also to the LNG terminal. This, together with spot LNG purchases, enabled us to begin ramping our production back up quickly towards full capacity again. However, maintaining operations came at a cost, with gas purchases at prices substantially above the previously contracted levels. The financial impact in the third quarter was approximately $85 million. For the fourth quarter, we estimate an impact of between $90 to $110 million from the gas price differential. This estimate is based on TTF forward curves and remains subject to changes in gas prices, production levels, and other relevant factors.
Eivind Kallevik: Our main focus moving forward is securing a long-term solution that strengthens our supply on competitive terms. Looking beyond the operational challenges in Brazil, the rest of the system delivered good progress and operational agenda. On the commercial side, our customer partnerships show how low carbon and recycled aluminum can translate into new applications and strengthen our premium position. Together with Siemens Mobility, we are developing the Train2Train pilot, recycling aluminum from decommissioned trains into material for new rail components. This brings together our recycling and extrusion capabilities to increase circularity in large infrastructure projects. We are also making progress with leading automotive and consumer brands in the US as well as in Europe. I will elaborate on this on the next slide. Finally, we have secured new CIRCAL offtake in the US with a large automotive supplier.
Eivind Kallevik: This metal will be produced at our Cassopolis plant in Michigan as well as our Henderson plant in Kentucky. Operationally, our Norwegian smelters delivered a record liquid metal production, up 6% year on year. Also in Extrusions, we saw volumes increasing by 3%, and we delivered strong recycling results. Finally, competitive renewable power remains fundamental to our position. With the PPAs finalized this past quarter, we have already secured around 90% of our Norwegian baseline power consumption in the 2030s. We will continue to pursue additional long-term supply to strengthen competitiveness and to enable future low carbon aluminum growth. Let me elaborate on three developments that we are particularly proud of, where leading brands are choosing Hydro's low carbon and recycled aluminum. This quarter, we have signed a strategic partnership with Chanel Fragrance and Beauty to develop the next generation of low carbon aluminum packaging.
Eivind Kallevik: Together, we will work on reducing emissions, strengthening traceability, and exploring increased recycled content without compromising quality and design. For me, this is a low volume but high impact partnership. The significance really goes beyond the tons, which we have to admit, in all honesty, is quite limited. In the US, General Motors' new car, Cadillac Optiq, will feature a front bumper system made with Hydro CIRCAL from Cassopolis. Working together with automotive supplier Shape Corp, we are bringing aluminum containing at least 75% post-consumer scrap into a safety-critical automotive application. Likewise, Mercedes-Benz will become the first automotive company in Europe to integrate Hydro CIRCAL into series production for its next generation of large electric vehicles.
Eivind Kallevik: This really builds on our existing collaboration on low carbon primary aluminum and extends the partnership further into recycling. Both Mercedes-Benz and GM are high-impact examples of how partnerships can help solve demanding technical challenges when bringing high levels of post-consumer scrap into safety-critical components. Getting there requires moving beyond what we see as a traditional supplier relationship. It means working together on specifications and metal chemistry without compromising strict requirements for material quality, safety, and performance. These partnerships also make a broader point, and that is that trust has a commercial value. Because when brands like these choose Hydro, they put their own reputation behind that choice. That trust is earned through quality, reliable delivery, and how we conduct our businesses. Their expectations for lower emissions, traceability, and recycled content challenge us also to keep improving.
Eivind Kallevik: These partnerships really reinforce my confidence in the long-term opportunities for low carbon and recycled aluminum, and in our ability to turn our strengths into real business opportunities. On that note, we have also reached an important milestone in the HalZero project, where we have produced the first aluminum using the HalZero process. For me, this is an important milestone, proving the core technology beyond the lab-scale tests that we have already succeeded with. HalZero takes a fundamentally different route from today's production technology, converting alumina into aluminum chloride before we do the electrolysis. The long-term ambition, of course, is to eliminate CO2 emissions from both electrolysis and anode production, releasing oxygen instead. Producing this first metal is an important step. Still, we have several years of testing and piloting remaining before potential industrial-scale deployment.
Eivind Kallevik: We have to admit the first batch is not totally emission-free, as the testing of the CO2, or split to CO, will commence at a later stage. The next step is now to develop an industrial concept pilot with the ambition of bringing all the necessary process stages together. Additionally, we have also been granted NOK 82 million in soft funding for concept development and planning of the industrial pilot by Enova. Going forward, there are still several milestones to pass before the technology is ready for broad use. However, this one gives us an important foundation for continuing pushing forward on this technology path. For several years, the story of European industry has largely been one of closures and declining competitiveness. But this quarter, Slovalco began moving in the opposite direction.
Eivind Kallevik: Following the agreement announced in July, the restart began in late August, bringing back primary capacity curtailed during the European energy crisis in 2022. The first phase targets 75,000 tons of annual capacity by the end of February next year. What made this possible was a combination of political will, a long-term power agreement, and a more predictable framework for compensation of indirect carbon costs in Slovakia. In many ways, Slovalco demonstrates that Europe's industrial decline is not inevitable, because many of the challenges facing European industry are shaped by political choices, and better choices can help turn the trend. One restart does not resolve Europe's industrial challenges overnight, but it does show that competitive energy and predictable framework conditions can bring investment and production back.
Eivind Kallevik: For me, that's really what Slovalco represents: a concrete example of European industry investing and rebuilding when the conditions are right. Let's then have a look at the alumina market. In Q3, the price increased throughout the quarter, reaching $370 per ton, up from $330 per ton at the end of Q2. This diverged from Chinese alumina prices, which moved downwards as new refinery capacity came online. The Chinese market became increasingly oversupplied, with prices close to marginal cash production costs. Outside China, the market also remained oversupplied during the quarter, despite lower production at certain Indonesian refineries facing raw material supply challenges. For the full year, the estimated global surplus has narrowed to 1.3 million tons, compared with the 1.6 million tons we presented last quarter.
Eivind Kallevik: If we look ahead into 2027, the global surplus is expected to narrow further to around 200,000 tons, with a deficit of around 600,000 tons outside China. The Atlantic differential remained at record levels and is currently around $45 per ton. A further development to watch is the bauxite supply from Guinea, which approximately half of what China's alumina production depends on. Guinea's government is considering a restriction on annual export volumes, but no formal announcement has been made as of today. If we then move to the aluminum market. The Middle East situation continued to influence the market during Q3. Last quarter, we described the sharp correction in prices as expectations for supply improved. In the third quarter, renewed tensions contributed to prices moving higher again.
Eivind Kallevik: The three-month aluminum price ended the third quarter at $3,170 per ton, up from $3,085 at the end of the second quarter. Global primary aluminum consumption was slightly higher in the third quarter this year compared to last year. That was really supported by a 3% growth in Asia. Consumption ex China, however, is estimated to have declined somewhat. The global market for 2026 is still expected to be undersupplied. The estimated deficit is now around 700,000 tons, down from just under 1 million tons presented last quarter. This reflects an estimated surplus of 1.1 million tons outside China, more than offset by a deficit of 1.8 million tons in China. Looking into 2027, the balance is expected to shift to a global surplus of around 1.4 million tons as the surplus outside China increases. Regional premiums remain elevated.
Eivind Kallevik: The US Midwest premium remains around $2,400 per ton, broadly in line with the level that we saw at the end of Q2. European duty paid premiums ended Q3 largely unchanged at $555 per ton, compared with the $558 per ton at the end of Q2. Overall, the market remains tight this year, with geopolitical developments continuing to influence prices, while the estimated balance points to increased supply availability in 2027. Finally, let's have a look at the downstream markets, where demand expectations remained challenging in certain areas in the quarter. In Europe, CRU estimates that Extrusions demand increased by 1% year on year in Q3, following marginal growth in Q2. Automotive demand remained positive, supported by continued growth in battery electric vehicle production.
Eivind Kallevik: Non-automotive transportation also turned positive after a weak start of the year, where building and construction has remained broadly flat. In North America, demand increased by just 0.2% year on year, following a decline in H1. This is somewhat weaker than the recovery anticipated last quarter. Commercial transportation continued to grow, supported by improving truckload rates. Industrial demand also remained solid, partly supported by pull from the data center developments. Automotive demand in North America, however, remains subdued, reflecting continued headwinds in the electric vehicle production. Looking ahead, CRU has revised down its full year outlook. Europe is still expected to see modest growth, while North America is now expected to see a slight decline compared with the growth anticipated last quarter. CRU has also revised its historical North American demand estimates, changing the comparison base.
Eivind Kallevik: With that, I'll hand it over to Trond Olaf for the financial update for the quarter.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Thank you, Eivind, and good morning and welcome from my side as well. We will start with the financial highlights for the quarter, and all numbers will be presented in NOK. Comparing year over year, revenue increased by around 3% to NOK 52.1 billion for Q3. This was driven by higher all-in metal prices. For Q3, we delivered an adjusted EBITDA of NOK 9.1 billion and a reported EBITDA of NOK 8.7 billion. Of this, adjusting items was NOK 400 million, mainly related to unrealized derivative loss on aluminum-related contracts of NOK 300 million. The adjusted EBIT for Q3 was NOK 6.3 billion, with a reported EBIT of NOK 5.9 billion. In addition to the adjusting items to EBITDA, there was NOK 70 million in adjusting items impacting EBIT related to impairments. The difference between the adjusted and the reported EBIT was NOK 500 million.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Net financial income for Q3 was NOK 1.5 billion positive.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: This was mainly driven by unrealized foreign exchange gains of NOK 1.8 billion and interest and finance income of NOK 300 million, partly offset by interest and financial expense of NOK 700 million. The income tax expense was NOK 2.1 billion in Q3, impacted by strong earnings before tax. The reported tax rate for Q3 was 29%. Overall, this resulted in an adjusted net income of NOK 4.4 billion, with a reported net income of NOK 5.3 billion. The total adjusting items to net income was NOK 900 million, which is the foreign exchange gain of NOK 1.8 billion, reduced by the EBIT adjusting items of NOK 500 million and an income tax effect of NOK 500 million. Adjusted net income was up from NOK 1.9 billion in the same quarter last year and down from NOK 4.6 billion in Q2.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Consequently, adjusted earnings per share was NOK 2.28 per share for Q3 2026, up from NOK 1.02 per share in Q3 2025. Free cash flow ended at NOK 1.4 billion for the quarter. The divergence between the net income numbers and free cash flow is mainly explained by net operating capital build that I will come back to later in the presentation. Finally, adjusted net debt was NOK 21.9 billion at the end of Q3. Looking at the results, Q3 compared to Q2. Adjusted EBITDA increased from NOK 8.9 billion to NOK 9.1 billion. The key drivers were higher all-in aluminum prices, lower fixed costs, and improved commercial results in metal markets. This was partly offset by higher raw material costs, seasonally lower volumes in Extrusions and recycling, and lower results in Energy.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Realized all-in aluminum prices and premiums contributed positively by around NOK 600 million, and the alumina price development contributed positively by NOK 300 million. Upstream volume development had a net -100 million impact, explained by lower sales volumes in bauxite and alumina due to the gas supply disruptions. This was partly offset by higher sales volumes in aluminum metal. Raw material costs increased by NOK 1.1 billion, mainly due to higher gas costs in bauxite and alumina and higher energy costs and carbon costs in aluminum metal. Extrusions had a lower result in Q3 compared to Q2 due to seasonally lower sales volumes and lower margins due to product mix of about NOK 360 million. Recycling results in metal markets were slightly down due to seasonally lower volumes by NOK 20 million.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: In the Energy business area, we had a net -200 million impact, mainly driven by loss on price area differences and net spot purchase in the power market. Fixed costs decreased in Q3 with an impact of NOK 390 million. This is mainly explained by seasonally lower fixed costs in aluminum metal and Extrusions. We saw a +100 million in currency effects, mainly driven by the weaker Norwegian kroner to the US dollar. In the other category, there was a +400 million effect quarter over quarter, and the largest effect was improved results in commercial activities in metal markets. Eliminations had limited effects quarter over quarter. Moving to the debt development. The debt development through the quarter, net debt decreased by NOK 800 million from NOK 16.3 billion to NOK 15.4 billion from end of Q2 to end of Q3.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: We delivered a free cash flow of NOK 1.4 billion in Q3. The adjusted EBITDA of NOK 9.1 billion contributed positively. This was offset by a net operating capital build of NOK 3.7 billion during the quarter due to inventory build and prepayments of gas in Alunorte, in addition to CO2 compensation receivable in Aluminium Metal. Other operating cash flow of -NOK 2 billion contains income tax payments, interest payments on debt, reversal of unrealized effect from positive trading results, in addition to a prepayment of power contract in Slovalco. Finally, we saw a net cash effective investment of NOK 2 billion in Q3, reflecting normal investment activity level in the BAs. Other changes to net debt of NOK 400 million mainly contains net positive FX effects on debt and cash of NOK 800 million, offset by new lease obligations during the quarter.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: In total, this gives a net debt position at end Q3 of NOK 15.4 billion. Moving on to adjustments to net debt. We saw an increase in hedging collateral and other by NOK 400 million following the large decline we saw last quarter. Our net positive pension position was further strengthened by NOK 400 million due to higher interest rates and increasing asset values. Other liabilities remained stable during Q3. All elements considered, we ended up at an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q3 of NOK 21.9 billion. Turning then to our strong focus on capital discipline and updates to year-end net operating capital and CapEx guidance. We have revised our outlook for year-end net operating capital from around NOK 30 billion that we gave last year at Investor Day to around NOK 32 billion.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: The increase is mainly driven by higher metal prices and premiums that are taking effect through 2026, impacting value of inventories and receivables. On CapEx, we are lowering our full year guidance from around NOK 13.5 billion to around NOK 12.5 billion. The reduction mainly reflects timing effects and project execution phasing across the portfolio. While some investments are expected to be pushed into next year, our strategic priorities and underlying investment plans remain unchanged. Overall, the updated guidance reflects current market conditions and the timing of investments while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash flow generation. Moving then to the BAs and starting with the Bauxite & Alumina. In Bauxite & Alumina, adjusted EBITDA came in at NOK 283 million for Q3, down from NOK 1.3 billion in the same quarter last year and NOK 522 million in Q2.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: The year-on-year decline was mainly driven by lower alumina prices, natural gas supply disruption, and higher LNG sourcing costs, as well as adverse Brazilian reals to US dollar exchange rate effects. Looking at the Q4 outlook, we expect higher sales volumes as production is fully recovered, together with support from improved alumina prices. We expect higher energy costs following the gas supply disruption and the need for spot LNG purchases at prices above the contracted levels. We estimate the financial impact to be in the range of -$90 to -$110 million, subject to changes in gas prices and other relevant factors. Moving to Aluminium Metal. In Aluminium Metal, adjusted EBITDA increased year-over-year from NOK 2.7 billion in Q3 last year to NOK 7 billion this quarter.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Result was driven by higher all-in metal prices. This was partly offset by negative currency effects reflecting the stronger Norwegian kroner against the US dollar and increasing energy and raw material costs. Compared to Q2, adjusted EBITDA increased by NOK 600 million. The key drivers were higher all-in metal prices, including realized premiums. This was partly offset by somewhat higher energy and raw material costs in line with our outlook given for Q3 at the Q2 reporting. This brings me to the outlook for the next quarter. For Q4, aluminum metal has booked 59% of the primary production at 3,148 US dollar per metric ton. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Aluminum metal has also booked 49% of the premiums affecting Q4 at 742 US dollar per ton. We expect realized premium to end up in the range of 550 to 600 US dollar per ton.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: On the cost side, carbon costs are expected to increase NOK 250 to 350 million. Alumina cost is expected to increase NOK 100 to 200 million. Finally, fixed costs are expected to increase by NOK 150 to 250 million after a seasonally low level in Q3. For Metal Markets, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 154 million in Q3 2025 to NOK 125 million in Q3 2026. The sourcing and trading activities had a -NOK 140 million result this quarter, where around NOK 100 million is due to the Middle East disruptions, where increased logistic costs is the main driver. The recycling business delivered NOK 270 million positive results, up from NOK 93 million in Q3 2025. Excluding the currency and inventory valuation effects, Metal Markets delivered a result of NOK 175 million in Q3 2026, which is flat compared to the same quarter last year.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Compared to the previous quarter, adjusted EBITDA for Metal Markets came up from NOK 32 million in Q2 to NOK 125 million in Q3. The main drivers were smaller losses in sourcing and trading, partly offset by slightly weaker recycling results. Recycling had another solid quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined marginally from NOK 286 million in Q2 to NOK 269 million in Q3. Weaker results in the US were compensated for by strong improvements in the results in Europe. For Q4, we expect somewhat weaker results in recycling due to seasonality. We expect the results from sourcing and trading activities to continue to be under pressure in Q4, with a range of -NOK 150 million to -NOK 250 million. Guiding reflects additional costs from the Middle East related disruptions and the continued impact of backwardated markets.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: The main driver for the Middle East disruption is the increased logistics and handling costs for the Middle East volumes due to the loss of the marketing and offtake agreement in Qatar. As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Then moving to the Extrusions business area. In Extrusions, Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased year over year from NOK 1.1 billion to NOK 1.2 billion, supported by strong recycling margins, especially in the US, as well as increased sales volumes. Comparing to Q2, adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 1.4 billion to NOK 1.2 billion in Q3, driven by seasonally lower sales volumes, partly offset by higher recycling margins. Despite the seasonal slowdown, sales volumes developed positively as expected when compared to the same quarter last year, while ongoing restructuring initiatives continued according to plan.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Restructuring and associated volume transfers had a negative impact on the cost level in the quarter. Finally, negative currency translation effects also impacted the results. For Extrusions, we should underline that we always compare the coming quarter to the same quarter last year due to strong seasonality. When looking at Q4, we expect higher sales volumes. The current strong recycling margins in the US and Europe are expected to continue into Q4, and overall margins for the business area are stable. In Q4 2025, we had an extraordinary positive metal effect from increasing Midwest premiums. The year-over-year effect is estimated approximately -210 million at current premium levels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. The Q4 metal effect will depend on the Midwest premium development throughout this quarter. The ongoing restructuring efforts are expected to strengthen overall business performance and support future profitability.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Finally moving to the final business area, Hydro Energy. Adjusted EBITDA came in at just above NOK 400 million in Q3, down from NOK 800 million in the same quarter last year. The main driver was the price area loss compared to the price area gain last year. This reflected the continued relatively higher prices in central Norway than in southern Norway and in Sweden, where Energy has production and power sourcing under long-term contracts. Compared to Q2 this year, adjusted EBITDA fell from NOK 500 million in Q2 to NOK 400 million in Q3. The decrease is mainly due to somewhat lower production and slightly higher loss due to the price area differences. Other changes had a limited net impact as stronger commercial results largely were offset by seasonally higher production costs.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: The price area loss was at around -NOK 180 million in Q3 compared to -NOK 170 million in Q2. Looking ahead to Q4, as always, we should be aware of the weather-driven inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy. As winter approaches and demand increases, we expect the usual seasonal increase in production and power prices. Reservoir levels in our production areas remain below normal. While the planned drawdown of reservoirs at the Tyin Power Plant in Norway ahead of maintenance is expected to increase production in Q4 and also Q1 next year. Based on the current outlook, losses from price area differences should, or could remain broadly in line with Q3, although the outcome will depend significantly on weather developments during the quarter. This ends the business area presentation. With that, I end the financial update and give the word back to Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik: To wrap up our today's session, I will briefly summarize our priorities. Our number one priority remains the safety, health, and well-being of our employees. The recent increase in injury and high-risk incident rates reinforces the need to intensify our efforts towards zero. Because strong results are really only meaningful when everybody returns home safely. Against the backdrop of continued geopolitical turbulence and unpredictable markets, maintaining operational robustness and delivering reliably for our customers remain key priorities. This quarter, our Norwegian smelters delivered record liquid metal production, while decisive action at Alunorte enabled us to respond to the gas supply disruption and begin ramping production back up swiftly. We also remain focused on delivering on our growth ambitions in recycling, in Extrusions, and in renewable energy. Strong recycling results, improvements in Extrusion sales volumes, and new long-term power agreements demonstrate continued progress in strengthening our competitive position.
Eivind Kallevik: And at the same time, we continue to execute on our decarbonization and technology roadmap. Producing the first aluminum with HalZero is an important milestone. Several years of testing and piloting remain, but it represents a concrete step in developing the technology needed for the future. Finally, we continue to seize commercial opportunities for low-carbon as well as recycled aluminum. Our progress this quarter with Chanel, General Motors, and Mercedes-Benz demonstrate how our capabilities and the trust we have earned can translate into new customer applications and long-term business opportunities. Overall, I am pleased with the strong operational performance across most of our BAs and the progress on our strategic priorities. With that, thank you so much for your attention and over to you, Gerd.
Eivind Kallevik: Thank you, Eivind. To follow up, we will then have a Q&A. As a reminder, if you want to ask questions, please write the question in the chat you should see on your right side on the screen. I will ask your question to Eivind and Trond. As you already have some questions in the chat, we will start the Q&A. The first question is from Maria. Q4 premiums. Can you explain why the Q4 realized premium is so low? Billet premiums were recently over $1,000 per ton, and the European premium is currently $580 per ton.
Trond Olaf Christophersen: Yes. Just a reminder, when we guide on the realized premium for the quarter, we have a mix of different cast house products. The product we sell at the later stage is the standard ingot product with the lowest underlying premiums. That is why you will typically see that the guiding on the premium to be realized for the coming quarter is always lower than the premiums we have locked in. It is a product mix effect rather than a general market effect. I think also, as you will see this quarter, is that we started at least some weeks back with extrusion ingot premiums above 1,000. I think currently market, it is around 850. It is on the way down, and that is also partly affecting the realized premium we estimate for the quarter.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: Thank you. Next question is from Patrick regarding the Alunorte gas contract with New Fortress. Do you expect to issue indicative EBITDA scenarios or some kind of cost guidance in the November Investor Day based on around spot LNG prices?
Eivind Kallevik: We have given the guidance the way we see it now for Q4. I think it would be natural to come back with a status update at the Investor Day, Patrick. Yes, we will comment on the development of also securing long-term contracts at that point in time.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: Next question from Amos regarding Alunorte gas supply. What is your expectation for the replacement of long-term contracts will be signed?
Eivind Kallevik: We are working hard on getting a new long-term competitive gas supply contract in place. Again, we have guided for spot purchases in Q4, and then we should come back to the topic on Investor Day later in November, and give you an update as to where we are.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: A follow-up question here. Regarding the CapEx guidance reduction of NOK 1 billion. Should we assume that the shift will go into 2027? What area does the NOK 1 billion reduction come from?
Eivind Kallevik: The reduction of NOK 1 billion really comes across all the BAs. Everybody is taking their share. When it comes to 2027 guidance, we will come back to that at the Investor Day in November with a clearer number.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: One question from Alan. Can you give more color on the capital and production going forward? How are you going about the logistics, alumina imports, alumina export? Do you expect any changes to gas or electricity supply prices?
Trond Olaf Christophersen: As we have said to the market, we are currently operating around 60% of capacity in Qatalum. That has been the main focus, first and foremost, the people we have in Qatar during the Middle East crisis. That is the most important priority. Now we have a stable setup around getting raw materials in, and you will also see from the numbers that we have started to get metal out from the plant. That is how things are looking now. Currently we see that roughly sales volumes out of Qatalum is roughly in line with the production as we see it now. That is the current situation, and when we see a change to this picture, we will then come back to the market and inform all of you.
Eivind Kallevik: When it comes to a question regarding gas and electricity prices, we have a long-term gas supply agreement in Qatar, so I don't expect any changes to the cost base from that perspective.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: Next question. What TTF price is embedded in the guidance for Alunorte, please?
Trond Olaf Christophersen: So it is the TTF price. Basically, you can read off the screens. That is now the basis for the spot purchases currently. As Eivind said, we will come back at the Investor Day further on the guidance and also based on the development we see in the market and also when it comes to sourcing of the long-term gas.
Gerd Aalborg Aas: Good. Seems to be no more questions. Thank you for joining us today. Please do not hesitate to contact us in IR if you have any questions. I wish you a great day. Goodbye.
