Berit Nilsen: This Q3 presentation. My name is Berit Nilsen, and I am Head of Investor Relations. We will start with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will present the highlights of the quarter, followed by our CFO, Jostein Amdal, who will take you through the numbers in more detail. We will have plenty of time for questions afterwards. Geir, over to you.
Geir Holmgren: Thank you, Berit. Good morning. Turning to page 2, I am pleased to report a very solid quarter for this year. We saw solid underlying improvements year-on-year, driven by disciplined pricing, better risk selection, and operational improvements. The favorable claims environment from the H1 continued into the quarter. Before turning to results, however, I would like to highlight a few important developments. First, we continue to make good progress in home seller insurance in Norway. In less than 4 years, premiums have grown to NOK 1 billion, supported by strong estate agent partnerships and the acquisition of Buysure 1 year ago. The new partnership with Privatmegleren, announced in Q2, will further expand our reach and strengthen our market position. Home seller insurance gives us access to customers at an important point in their home ownership journey.
Geir Holmgren: Homeowners tend to be loyal and profitable customers, creating clear opportunities to broaden the relationship over time. Second, this year marks 70 years of our partnerships with the Norwegian Farmers Union. We are therefore particularly pleased to have renewed the agreement for another 5 years. Agriculture has always been important to Gjensidige, and the renewed partnership allows us to build on a unique shared history. To strengthen our offering to Norwegian farmers, it also lays the foundation for even closer cooperation on prevention and preparedness in the years ahead. This is something we are proud of. Third, we are strengthening distribution in private Denmark. Over the past year, targeted pricing measures have significantly improved profitability. A more efficient operating model and the sharing of best practices across markets have further strengthened the business.
Geir Holmgren: We are now adding tied agents to complement our direct distribution and provide full, active advice to new and existing customers. Our new partnership with CA, a Danish membership organization for highly educated professionals, will give us access to around 68,000 members. Together with a renewed agreement with the bank Sparekassen Kronjylland, these initiatives provide a strong platform for profitable growth. Finally, I would like to highlight the major residential fire at Krokselva in July, which destroyed more than 100 homes and displaced many families. We contacted affected customers personally, established a local claims office, and mobilized our supplier network to arrange temporary housing and provide practical and financial support. Our response shows how we serve our customers. Personal support when it matters, and fast, convenient digital solutions when that works best.
Geir Holmgren: Understanding what customers value has long been a key strength for us and will remain so as technology and customer expectations evolve. Turning to page 3, I am proud to see that our sustained focus on customer is reflected in the strong position we hold across our markets. This week, the annual Ipsos profile survey of major Norwegian companies was released. The results confirm our strong position. We ranked 12th among 101 companies across 11 industries, with 65% of respondents having a positive overall impression of Gjensidige. We are the highest-ranked bank or insurance company in the survey. In Danish commercial, our latest customer survey also shows encouraging results. Our customers report higher satisfaction than the market average, with particularly positive feedback on claims handling. Together, these results reinforce something fundamental to our business.
Geir Holmgren: Strong customer positions are built over time through the experiences we deliver and the trust to earn. I am proud of the position we have built, and we will continue to strengthen it. With that, let me now turn to our results for the quarter. Let us move to page 4. Gjensidige generated a profit after tax of NOK 2,077 million in the Q3, a significant increase year on year. The increase was mainly driven by a substantial improvement in the insurance service result. The favorable claims condition seen in the H1 continued into the Q3. Revenue growth was 3.7% in local currency, or 5.3%, excluding the non-recurring effect related to home seller insurance in private Norway last year. Growth was mainly driven by pricing measures across our private and commercial portfolios, alongside higher volumes in several product areas in private Norway.
Geir Holmgren: The customer portfolios in both private and commercial have increased during the last year, despite the temporary negative effect from the termination of the agreements with the fire mutuals. Looking ahead, we see attractive opportunities to accelerate profitable growth across our businesses. In Norway, targeted initiatives in private property are helping us win new customers and expand relationships with existing ones. We also see a significant potential in life, health, and pension, supported by growing demand for long-term financial security and our broad customer base. This includes offering commercial customers insurance and pension through one point of entry. In Denmark, our expanded distribution capacity and new and renewed partnerships position us well for profitable growth. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved significantly year on year, and large losses were lower. Excluding restructuring costs in our technology division, the cost ratio was 10.7%, reflecting sustained cost discipline.
Geir Holmgren: The restructuring will continue to strengthen our technology capabilities, including our ability to develop and deploy AI, automation, and data-driven solutions at scale. It will also simplify the organization and support further efficiency gains. Overall, our strong insurance performance in the quarter supported an annualized return on equity of 34.2%. Our capital position remains strong, reflected in a solvency ratio of 190%. Turning to page 5 for some more details. In general insurance, the insurance service result was NOK 3,004 million, with a combined ratio of 73.6%. I am very pleased with this strong performance. Targeted price increases and disciplined risk selection contributed to lower loss ratio in both private and commercial, compared to last year. Large losses were also lower than we should normally expect. While operational efficiency and continued cost discipline supported the result, both private and commercial delivered high insurance service results year on year.
Geir Holmgren: In Sweden, performance was weaker, reflecting a normalization in medium-sized claims compared with last year. The corporate center results included the technology restructuring cost mentioned earlier. The financial result in the general insurance business was -NOK 193 million this quarter, reflecting the impact of high interest rates and wider credit spreads. Our pension business delivered a pre-tax profit of NOK 98 million, adjusted for the change in CSM. Excluding last year's non-recurring costs on core system expense, the results also improved year on year. This reflected a higher insurance service result, as adjusted to CSM, partly offset by lower net finance income. Over to page 6. As mentioned, insurance revenue increased by 3.7% in local currency this quarter. Excluding the last year's non-recurring effect, earned line growth was 5.3%. Turning to Private, revenues increased across Norway and Denmark, supported by pricing measures and, in Norway, higher volumes.
Geir Holmgren: As highlighted last quarter, our new partnerships with Tesla, Privatmegleren, and Huseierne will broaden our reach and support new businesses going forward. The Tesla partnership has had an encouraging sharp start, while the agreements with Privatmegleren and Huseierne will take effect from the beginning of 2027. As also mentioned earlier, we have increased our distribution capacity in Denmark to support profitable growth over time. In Commercial, revenues increased across Norway and Denmark, reflecting price increases. Volumes decreased mainly due to our consistent prioritization of profitability over growth, including targeted price increases, particularly for larger customers, as well as somewhat increased competition. Our focus remains on writing the right business at the right price. If that means accepting lower volumes in certain parts of the portfolio, this is our trade-off we are comfortable with, as profitability remains the priority. In Sweden, both price increases and higher volumes contributed to growth.
Geir Holmgren: The pricing measures we have taken have strengthened profitability and give us greater flexibility going forward. We expect pricing to remain at least in line with claims cost development, while differentiated pricing will continue to support portfolio quality. Over to page 7. Progress towards our operational targets remains important, as these are key enablers for delivering on our financial ambitions. Customer retention remains high across markets. In Norway, both Private and Commercial continued to be temporarily affected by the termination of agreements with the five mutuals. Even so, we are pleased with our ability to retain customers in the affected areas. In Denmark, retention remains stable. We also continue to make progress on automation and digitalization. The digital distribution index improved further, with higher distribution efficiency in Private and a slight improvement in Commercial. Straight-through processing in Norway also increased. Over to page 8.
Geir Holmgren: Sustainability remains a priority for Gjensidige, and we continue to make steady progress towards our 2030 targets. We continue to hold an AAA ESG rating from MSCI, reflecting the strength of our sustainability work. We are particularly pleased with the full score for our environmental goals and performance. With that, I will hand over to Jostein, who will present the Q3 results in more detail.
Jostein Amdal: Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I will start on page 9. We delivered a profit before tax of NOK 2,781 million in the Q3, driven by a significant increase in the general insurance result. The general insurance result increased by NOK 733 million year-on-year. The underlying development in the pension business was positive. Excluding the non-recurring expense related to the core system last year, profit before tax, adjusted for CSM, improved by NOK 25 million. This reflected a higher insurance service result adjusted for CSM, partly offset by lower net finance income. Net finance was negatively impacted by higher interest rates and credit spreads. The result from other items was higher compared to the Q3 last year, mainly reflecting lower expenses and amortization of intangible assets, as well as a higher result from mobility services.
Jostein Amdal: This was partly offset by higher natural perils transfers and interest expenses. Turning to page 10 to comment on the segments, starting with Private. Private Norway delivered another strong quarter. The insurance service result increased by NOK 351 million year-on-year, driven by continued revenue growth, lower large losses, and a 4.9 percentage point improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio, primarily reflecting better profitability in motor. Claims inflation developed broadly in line with our expectations in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect claims inflation in Norway in the range of 3% to 6% for motor, helped by favorable currency effects, and 4% to 6% for property. Inflationary pressure is expected to be somewhat lower in Denmark and Sweden. There is still considerable uncertainty around geopolitics, currency movements, and global inflation, and we continue to monitor developments closely.
Jostein Amdal: It is also worth mentioning that claims cost development may differ from claims inflation, as it also reflects changes in claims frequency, the types of claims incurred, and portfolio mix. Turning to the Private portfolio in Denmark, performance improved further in the quarter. The insurance service result increased by NOK 41 million year-on-year, reflecting a stronger margin, lower large losses, and higher run-off gains. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 1 percentage point, driven by better profitability following pricing measures. The cost ratio improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year. Implemented cost-efficiency measures together with continued cost discipline are improving efficiency in our Danish Private business. Moving to page 11 to comment on the performance of our Commercial portfolios. In Norway, the insurance service result increased significantly by NOK 331 million compared with the Q3 last year, mainly reflecting a stronger margin.
Jostein Amdal: The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 9.6 percentage points, driven by better profitability in motor, property, and marine insurance, following effective pricing measures and improved risk selection. A lower frequency of mid-size claims also contributed positively. The cost ratio was 7.8%, in line with last year. In Denmark, the insurance service result improved by NOK 224 million year-on-year, driven primarily by a stronger margin and higher run-off gains. The underlying loss ratio improved by 7.2 percentage points, reflecting better profitability across most main products following effective pricing measures. The cost ratio was 10.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2025. Turning to page 12. Our Swedish business reported a NOK 72 million decrease in the insurance service result compared with the Q3 last year, reflecting higher loss and cost ratios. Revenue growth remained solid at 11.3% in local currency.
Jostein Amdal: The underlying frequency loss ratio increased by 8.2 percentage points, mainly reflecting lower profitability in property across the private and commercial portfolios, largely due to a normalization in the frequency of mid-size claims. Temporary costs associated with digital claims solutions also affected the underlying frequency loss ratio negatively. The cost ratio increased by 2.5 percentage points, reflecting higher operating expenses, mainly due to temporary technology-related costs. Turning to page 13, let me comment on our pension business. The pension business delivered a pre-tax profit, adjusted for changes in CSM, of NOK 98 million.
Jostein Amdal: Adjusted for last year's non-recurring termination expense, profit before tax, adjusted for CSM, improved by NOK 25.4 million. This reflects the higher insurance service result, adjusted for CSM, partly offset by lower net finance income. Net income from the unit-linked business decreased by 12.1%, adjusted for the termination expense, as higher income was more than offset by higher costs.
Jostein Amdal: Management income increased, driven by growth in assets under management, while higher administration fees reflected growth in the number of occupational pension members. Net finance income decreased, reflecting running yield, higher interest rates, and negative value adjustments to real estate. The negative impact from expected future profit sharing with customers exceeded the positive effect of lower insurance liabilities resulting from the higher interest rates. The insurance service result, adjusted for CSM, improved, mainly driven by the individual disability product and paid-up policies. Let's turn to the investment portfolio on page 14. The result for the quarter reflected positive returns from short duration fixed income instruments and negative returns from bonds and equities. A high running yield contributed positively, while higher interest rates and wider credit spreads had a negative impact. The real estate portfolio delivered a positive return.
Jostein Amdal: It consists of six high-quality properties in Oslo central business district, and is close to fully let, with long leases and solid tenants. The match portfolio, net of insurance finance, and the fee portfolio both delivered returns of -0.04% in the quarter. Overall, portfolio risk remained low. We maintain a well-balanced asset allocation with a clear focus on high credit quality. The investment strategy is therefore well-positioned to withstand further market turbulence. Over to page 15. The group's solvency ratio remained strong at 190% at the end of the quarter. Solvency II operating earnings contributed positively to eligible own funds. As usual, this was partly offset by the formulaic dividend, which reduced own funds by 80% of profit after tax. We issued a new tier 2 loan of NOK 1 billion in September.
Jostein Amdal: At quarter end, NOK 1.2 billion of tier 2 capital was not included in the eligible own funds. We then redeemed an existing NOK 1.2 billion tier 2 loan on 7 October, and expect our remaining tier 2 instruments to be fully recognized going forward. The capital requirement was stable in the quarter. The increase related to growth was largely offset by currency movements. Overall, we remain in a strong capital position with continued flexibility to support profitable growth and shareholder distributions. With that, I'll give the word back to Geir.
Geir Holmgren: Thank you. To summarize, on page 16. Overall, we are very pleased with the strong performance this quarter. At the same time, it is important to recognize that general insurance is inherently volatile, and that this volatility has been in our favor so far this year. Our strategic approach remains centered on four priorities: customer empathy, profitable growth, resilience, and disciplined capital management. Together, these priorities underpin long-term value creation for customers and shareholders. We are well positioned for further growth, while maintaining our focus on cost efficiency and profitability. Based on the progress made so far, we remain confident that we will achieve our financial targets for 2026. Looking further ahead, Gjensidige's strong position gives us confidence that we can deliver profitable growth, attractive shareholder returns, and long-term customer value. With that, we will now open the Q&A session.
Berit Nilsen: We will now continue with our Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, you can join via Microsoft Teams by clicking the button below the webcast window after registration, and you can also submit questions in writing directly in the webcast player. We will start with a written question from Kian from UBS. Just on the GWP growth, slide 27, we saw quite a sharp sequential slowdown this quarter across the businesses. Can you help us unpack how much of that is FX and prior year comparables, versus a general slowdown in underlying growth? Looking into 2027, given retention was a bit softer quarter on quarter and claims inflation is moderating, how do you expect the competitive dynamics to evolve, and how should we think about the sustainable level of GWP growth from there?
Jostein Amdal: Okay. Thank you, Geir. I will start on the currency-adjusted gross written premium figures. The figures, as you mentioned in slide 27, is in Norwegian kroner. If you are going to unpack that and look at the pure currency-adjusted numbers at the group level, where we report -1% in Norwegian kroner. If we adjust for currency, it is +0.9%. If you then move to the private segment, where we report 1.2, the currency-adjusted number would be 2.6%. For commercial, we report -3.7, whereas currency-adjusted would be -1.7. The really big difference is on Sweden, where we report -3.2%, whereas in Swedish kroner, local currency, it is +4.4%. So it is a big effect from currency movements in this quarter. Year to date, the effects are much smaller.
Jostein Amdal: In the comparables, whereas we adjust the earned premium or the insurance revenue from the accounting change in Q3 2025. This accounting change in 2025 did not have any effect on the written numbers. So there is no prior year adjustment on the written premium for that reason. Now, Geir, you talk about the competitive dynamics.
Geir Holmgren: Yep. I should probably go through each of the core segments we are having. If we start with the private segment across Norway, Denmark, we actually don't see any kind of changes when it comes to the dynamics on the competition in the market. We are happy to see that we are still facing very interesting growth opportunities within the private segment. As mentioned in the presentation as well, when it comes to home seller insurance, this is a rather new business area where we have started 4 years ago, and now we have close to NOK 1 billion in annual premiums, which tells us that there are ongoing opportunities when it comes to find growth opportunities in the market as well. We have a couple of new agreements as well, as mentioned, which will help us fuel future growth in the private segment.
Geir Holmgren: In Denmark, we are doing a lot on the distribution capacity, which gives us expectation on growth going forward, still within the kind of profitability framework as we have tradition for in Gjensidige. In the commercial segment, the dynamics when it comes to competition, as mentioned before, especially within kind of accident and health for larger companies, larger customers, we have been facing some clients leaving Gjensidige, and that's due to our capabilities when it comes to risk and price selection and what kind of expectation we do to actually have the customers on the right pricing levels to give us the right level of profitability as we expect. So this is a kind of expected movement, but this is also the area where we see some kind of change in competition during the last year, I would say.
Geir Holmgren: But we also have very good examples on larger customers within accident and health also choosing Gjensidige. So this was not a kind of very asymmetric statement. When it comes to Sweden, we are facing good growth. As also commented, somewhat weaker profitability compared to last year, but now we also have more normalized level on the kind of midsize claims in Sweden. But I'm very happy to see that we have very good growth, above 10%, when it comes to a combination of price and volume growth as well. Thank you.
Berit Nilsen: We will now move to some questions from our Microsoft Teams participants, starting with Ulrik Svirkel from Nordea. Please go ahead, Ulrik.
Ulrik Zürcher: Thank you, Berit. I have three questions. First one is. Sorry, I am hearing myself. It is an echo.
Berit Nilsen: That is okay. We do not hear any echo.
Ulrik Zürcher: What would you currently consider to be a normalized. Sorry, it is like I can hardly hear. Sorry, can I try again?
Berit Nilsen: Yeah.
Ulrik Zürcher: Okay. It is better, yeah.
Berit Nilsen: It's okay.
Ulrik Zürcher: Okay. What would you currently consider to be a normalized seasonality in the claims ratio between the summer and winter quarters in Norway? I hear what you're saying, that you've been a bit lucky this year. Secondly, I was just wondering if the expected claims inflation for private in total is similar to motor and property, so like a midpoint around 5%, 4%? Lastly, just on the tough competition in accident and health, is that Nordic companies or is it outside capital or companies that's competing for that? Thank you.
Jostein Amdal: Thank you, Ulrik Svirkel. The difference between a typical or long-term average winter and summer quarter would be somewhere in the region by, say, 3%. It varies widely. You remember the quarter when we had Hans that was probably one of the worst quarters we had for a long time, so it's a bit volatile. On typical long-term, I would estimate around maybe 3 percentage points on the loss ratio. Claims inflation in private total, we've given you kind of two of the main products, motor and property, with say 3% to 4%, 6% percentage point. The third main area would be on the personal side. That's not so big in private as it is in commercial, where kind of either the consumer price index or wage development would be the kind of two main drivers to look at. So that would be around 4% to 5%.
Jostein Amdal: If you summarize that and won't have a very wrong number, I think you're quite okay at around 4% to 5%, I would guess, if you just average it out. We've given the more exact numbers on the private property and private motor in Norway. Accident health competition in Norway, it's somewhat broader competitive landscape there because you also have on the workers' comp and the group products, also bank-owned or life insurance-based competitors. Otherwise, it's the same players as we see here. Tryg, If, Storebrand. The usual suspects, I would say.
Ulrik Zürcher: Okay. That is great. Thank you.
Berit Nilsen: Next question is from Hans Rettedal Christiansen from Danske Bank. Go ahead, Hans.
Hans Rettedal Christiansen: Yes. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I have two. The first question is just a little bit around the commercial segment, and you are mentioning prioritizing profitability. Just trying to tie that up with the growth in premiums number that you are reporting, and the underlying profitability. How should we think about the amount of customers that are leaving, and how the volume are affecting your growth this quarter? Also looking up against the profitability number in terms of how sustainable that is going forward and how much of it is luck versus sustainability?
Geir Holmgren: Commercial segment, we are still talking about a few larger companies choosing another provider when it comes to the more accident and health related products. As Jostein mentioned, in this competition, we also have players mainly focused on more life insurance related products, group life, workers' comp and so on. If you look at the termination of agreements with the fire mutuals, which have a one-off impact throughout this year. If you had excluded that, we are still having more customers in the customer commercial portfolio today than we had at the year end last year. So in number of customers, we are still growing.
Geir Holmgren: We are rather focusing on how we could improve our offering and combine it with pension and be a strong player within the SME part of the market, as we still have a very strong position and high retention rates.
Hans Rettedal Christiansen: Got it. Are you able to quantify how much the termination agreements with the fire mutuals, as well as the accident and health portion is impacting the numbers this quarter?
Jostein Amdal: I am not giving that number. It is within an expected range, I would say. This happened also five years ago, and they have quite a lot of experience from that time. It is within expectations.
Geir Holmgren: It is fair to add that when we actually terminated the agreements a year ago, we expected customers to leave us. This was a total consideration and assessment looking at profitability, also due to the business volume we are having after the first year. We are still very happy to see that as a result of termination, we are improving the profitability due to lower expenses and more efficient distribution and also over time building broader relationship with existing customers.
Jostein Amdal: Also add to it that if you remember back to the, I think it was the Q2 presentation, we gave you some numbers on the profitability difference between customers that left us and the remaining customers, and that we are in general, customers that leave us have a much higher loss ratio than the ones who remain. So there is some effect you see here on the improvements in the profitability, which is also driven by what you could call portfolio optimization or portfolio pruning.
Hans Rettedal Christiansen: Got it. My second question is on, you provide some helpful charts on what is driving the insurance service result in the different segments between growth and margin. My question is on the private market, are you experiencing a softening of the private market in Norway? How should we interpret that from a margin development here going forward?
Geir Holmgren: No, we have not seen any change when it comes to market dynamics and how the private segment in Norway is working. We see that we are able to come through with other price increases when necessary. We see that the retention rates are still high. We also see that we have very satisfied customers, emphasized also this week with the last reputation survey, which we are very happy to see that after a couple of years with large claims and necessary price increases, we are highly recognized and have a high level of reputation among Norwegian customers. That is very satisfying.
Hans Rettedal Christiansen: Okay. That was all for me. Thank you very much.
Berit Nilsen: Next question is from Thomas Renton at SEB. The line is open, Thomas.
Thomas Renton: Yes. Hello, good morning. First question on private Norway. Of course, profits over growth. The question is, where is your threshold on the private side, versus your group combined targets of less than 81%? Are you willing to go up towards this level from the low level you are today? Also when looking at the portfolio, and talking with your clients, are you in certain segments willing to lower prices, for your private Norway clients as long as it is within your profitability threshold? Or it is only price increases whatsoever?
Geir Holmgren: Well, when we are talking on price increases, it also depends on the kind of customer profitability and the different customer groups you do have when you do all the kind of consideration assessments. When we are talking about pricing, at least in line with inflation numbers we are facing, this is more a kind of an average statement. Within private, I am actually very optimistic when it comes to the different types of growth opportunities we are facing. Within the housing segment, I think we are during the last 2 years have done kind of a turnaround. Now we are having more customers, with home insurance than before. We have went into successful partnerships. We have very successful couple of years within the home seller insurance, which is a very good starting point for new customers and for our ability to broaden the relationships as well.
Geir Holmgren: If you look at the margins, we will not use a price as a mechanism to achieve growth. We will continue to make sure that we have the right level of margins when it comes to our private portfolio also in Norway. Also the kind of profitability level we are facing now put us in a position where we could do different types of investments, as also mentioned on the capital markets day, when it comes to technology and when it comes to seek use in investments to broaden the product offering, to improve our technology platform, more use of AI and so on, which put us in a position where we will have growth also beyond 2028.
Thomas Renton: Okay. Thank you for that. Just the second question, the range on I hear my own voice, but, in private Norway, you have the upper part of the property range of 6%, so I just wonder what is the arguments for that? With wage inflation 4.5, building cost index up 4.1, and big currency tailwinds. Is that sort of a worst case scenario, and we are likely at the lower end on the property side?
Jostein Amdal: I think this is an estimate we give you kind of as of reporting there for the next 12 to 18 months. There is understanding that there is quite a lot of uncertainty about making such a statement. We adjust our views on this continuously as we get more information. Just try to highlight that by giving you a range around what we see going forward.
Thomas Renton: Okay. Thank you.
Berit Nilsen: Next will be Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Varsh.
Vash Gosalia: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, and potentially both are sort of follow-ups on comments I've already discussed. One is coming back to your GWP. It's actually a bit more comforting to look at the numbers ex FX, but nonetheless, it seems to be a deceleration from the previous quarters. Could you help us understand what are the dynamics there? Is it all pricing? Is it pricing versus volume? What's really going on there? I think that would be really helpful. The second question I have is on your underlying frequency loss ratio. Could you just help us unpack the improvement that you have seen year over year? How much of that is basically stochastic versus discounting versus pricing on through? Essentially, I understand there is always quarter-to-quarter volatility, but I'm really trying to understand what's your run rate margin going forward.
Jostein Amdal: Yeah. Thanks, Varsh. If you look back at what we communicated around pricing in 2025, you have seen that we are now talking about lower estimates on the inflation side. We are also at the end of 2025, we talked more specifically about what price increases were in place. Given where we are profitability-wise and the inflation expectations, it's natural that the pure price increases are lower now than they were in 2025. We also talked about over several quarters on the commercial side that there is, especially in the large customer broker segment, and especially within accident and health products, somewhat tougher prioritization between profit and volume, where we've been hard on the profit side, which has led to negative volume development on this kind of pocket or segment, if you like. So I think these are the main drivers.
Jostein Amdal: If you look forward to give you kind of some help there, I think it's important to look at what we reported now on the Private Norway side. We've talked about the new partnerships which will be important add-ons for future growth, as well as not just add-ons itself, but the potential they give us for increased cross-selling over time. But it takes some time to realize that. But it makes us at least quite optimistic about that going forward. Private Denmark, we also introduced both a new partnership and a new distribution partner today. So that will be also helpful in strengthening our sales force, which we will see that over the next 12 to 18 months. I think that's maybe the most important on the commercial side.
Jostein Amdal: It's not much new as such, but we are in a very good place when it comes to profitability numbers, and we have good control over the ongoing claims inflation, I believe. So it's from a position of strength, I think we're moving forward there. UFLR, luck versus or stochastic changes versus underlying drivers. Not quantifying that, but heading back to both the seasonality question from Ulrik earlier today, which is clear that in the Q3 it's typically good. That doesn't change the Q3 versus Q3 comparison, but we have also seen through the whole of 2026 a fairly favorable weather patterns where there have been kind of no events as such, and also lower large losses than what we, based on our internal model long-term expect.
Jostein Amdal: Sure, interest rates have some effect there where the discounting is positive, and we have the numbers, I think, in the report, or at least on the segment level, and also per contract. There are numbers there that will come and go, depending on interest rates movements. I think that will be the main building blocks for you to make your estimates going forward.
Vash Gosalia: That is helpful. Just coming back to GWP, as you said, you have given us comments around the claims inflation numbers and pricing coming off, but it feels like the growth is still below claims inflation. Then I am inclined to believe even in Private you would have lost some volume. Do you think that is a fair assessment of the situation, or am I missing something?
Jostein Amdal: In Private Norway? I would disagree.
Vash Gosalia: I would say Private general because GWP, we just have Private as a whole.
Jostein Amdal: Yeah.
Vash Gosalia: But when I look at the FX adjusted number of 2.6, that is definitely below the claims inflation number that I would expect, which leads me to believe that there has been loss of volume. Is that a fair assessment of the situation?
Jostein Amdal: I would say that I know that you do not give the gross written premiums per geography/segment, but I would say it is a fairly flat, I would rather say it than a loss of customers. We still have a number of customers, cars, houses, and so on are
Vash Gosalia: Have a positive development.
Jostein Amdal: In the private segment in Norway, we still have this kind of non-recurring effect regarding the termination of fire mutuals. We will have an impact throughout the year. But if you go back and look at and when we look at the customer base, we have more customers today in our private segment in Norway than we had at the end of last year. But you have some temporary effect also regarding the termination of the five mutual agreements, which will have an impact this year.
Vash Gosalia: Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Berit Nilsen: Moving on to Nimrat Kaur from Bank of America. Go ahead, Nimrat.
Nimrat Kaur: Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I just have two. One on Denmark private. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved only 1 percentage point in this quarter against much higher increases earlier in the year. Would you say now we are around more sustainable levels for underlying loss ratio in this business, and that we should expect flattish development there? For Sweden, the profitability was hit again, and you have cited the higher share of leisure boat in the mix as well as a reason for this. Is that deliberately a lower-margin growth area where you are pushing for a higher share?
Jostein Amdal: We do not guide on the development going forward on the UFLR in any segment or at the group level as such. I think we can note that we are at a fairly okay level, I would say, on the underlying frequency loss ratio of 70 in Denmark. We expect that this will always be on average higher in Denmark and Sweden than it is in Norway, given our market position and size. So I am quite satisfied with the underlying profitability level in private Denmark now. If you look at this from a year-to-date perspective, it is 6.6 percentage points lower than both year to date 2025. So I think it is a very strong improvement.
Jostein Amdal: Sweden, I think we were quite transparent last year that we were experiencing very little kind of what is called mid-sized, small to mid-sized claims, that we were a positive volatility around the Swedish last year, and this year is more of a normalization of that. As we mentioned also in the report, there are some specific costs on the tech side, which has had an effect both on the cost and the loss ratio, which is you could say one-off, really. Although not big one-off, but you see the numbers in the report. I am not concerned about the profitability development in Sweden. It is not that we are reducing margins or anything like that through pricing. We are having the same policy there to price at least in line with our claims expectations.
Nimrat Kaur: Most of the deterioration that you are seeing in Sweden this time, is it more because of the mid-sized claims in property?
Jostein Amdal: You want to point to one effect? Yes, I would say that is the largest effect.
Nimrat Kaur: Thank you.
Berit Nilsen: Then we have a question from Vineet Malhotra from Mediobanca. The line is open, Vineet.
Vinit Malhotra: Yes, good morning. Thank you. I hope you can hear me. Apologies to probably follow up, but just so that I understand a little clearer. The two questions are, one is on Private Norway revenue growth, and the other one is on Commercial Norway UFLR. On Private Norway revenue growth, the kind of 14%, 15% that went down to about 5% in Q3. I understand it is pricing, but is it the fire mutuals which is causing most of this fall?
Vinit Malhotra: Because the home seller insurance is also becoming something more relevant on the positive side. I am just curious, just to understand that, are you saying that this kind of 5% suddenly that has happened in Q3 is because of fire mutuals, and then it should recover maybe in few quarters? Or what is the message there, please? That is the first question. And second question is on Commercial UFLR. I can ask now. When I look at the messaging on commercial in previous quarters, we were improving about, say, 2 points when you look at SME corporate. And now suddenly there is a 9.6 points in Commercial Norway UFLR. Is it fair assumption that most of this pickup is from mid-sized claims being lower? Thank you.
Jostein Amdal: First of all, on the growth in Norway, to repeat on the effect of the Q3 2025 change in accounting principle. If you adjust for that, the insurance revenue in Norway was 9.4% higher than Q3 2025. So it is not a low growth. And that also includes, of course, the effects of the fire mutuals that we have already talked about. So adjusted that, it would have been higher. I think we are quite happy with that kind of growth. So it is maybe on claims inflation, of course. Going forward, I think on one of the previous questions, I talked about where I see the reasons for optimism about future growth in terms of new partnerships, increased cross-selling, and so on. I will not repeat that.
Jostein Amdal: On Commercial Norway, the UFLR, whether the main reason is small to mid or mid-size claims for the 9 percentage points improvement in the underlying loss ratio. I think it is a combination of what is going on over quarters, where we optimize the portfolio, like we talked about in the Q2 presentation, where the companies leaving have a higher loss ratio than the ones we are able to retain, and volatility in the quarter as such. There is a quarter is said many times also when results have not been that good, that there is volatility is high on a quarterly basis in insurance especially, I am talking about the bit higher claims. So there is some stochastic volatility, some effects of ongoing long-term improvements in the portfolio.
Vinit Malhotra: Sure. Thank you. Just to be clear, you said Insurance Norway was up 9.4% adjusted for accounting of last year, 9.4?
Jostein Amdal: Private Norway insurance revenue is up 9.4% adjusted for the accounting effect in the Q3 2025 related to home seller insurance.
Vinit Malhotra: Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Jostein Amdal: Yeah.
Berit Nilsen: Then I can see one more written question from Gary Lee at Armar Capital. Can you please talk about the competition dynamics today across your business lines, and how should we think about AI possibly affecting your business cost and margins?
Geir Holmgren: Okay. The competitive dynamics in private segment in Norway is quite stable. Same players. We are having more or less the same kind of retention rates. We see that all the kind of price increases we had in the past are coming through, and we are successful when it comes to margin improvements. So, we do not see any kind of major changes when it comes to dynamics in the private segment. In the commercial segment in Norway, and in Denmark, we see to some extent, some higher competition when it comes to accident and health for larger customers, which we have commented on, and which also have an impact on our growth numbers in the commercial segment. But we are still talking about quite a few larger customers. But that is more or less the situation.
Geir Holmgren: We are successful when it comes to how we operate in the SME segment, and the price increases we are having in the past are coming successful through and retention rates are still above 90% in the commercial segment in Norway. In Sweden, no kind of changes in the dynamics. We are successful when it comes to growth, both driven by price increases and business growth, which is very satisfying from our point of view.
Berit Nilsen: AI.
Geir Holmgren: When it comes to AI, what we are doing internally, we are investing in AI. We have done that for some years. We are transforming the way we are doing claims handling, which definitely have a very positive impact on both customer satisfaction and how we handle the claims, but also on our efficiency and the quality of claims. That also include fraud detection and use of AI when it comes to customer interactions and handling the claims cases, as an example of where we use AI. But I will also say that during the last couple of years, we have see changes in the culture and behavior within Gjensidige due to more extensive use of AI in different types of our operations.
Geir Holmgren: If you look at what is happening externally, our situation is we have a very strong and solid position also emphasized this week with a reputation survey in Norway, which is a very good starting point when there are some kind of dynamics externally when it comes to use of AI and a possible impact on the distribution side. We are preparing for different types of dynamics which could have an impact in the market situations. If you look at agentic AI on the distribution side, the positive thing on that is that our offering, including the customer dividend, including high level of satisfaction when it comes to claims handling.
Geir Holmgren: Including high quality on terms and conditions will definitely be a part of different types of considerations and assessments done by agentic AI on the distribution side. I would say that our starting point, if there will be some kind of dynamics, is very good due to our very high-quality operations and very satisfied customers. This is something we definitely are spending time on, and this is something we are definitely preparing to face and see different types of changes which could have an impact on the market dynamics in both private and, to some extent, the commercial segments.
Berit Nilsen: Then it does not seem to be any further questions, and we will round off there. We will be participating in investor conferences and broker-organized investor meetings over the coming months. Please see our financial calendar on our website for more details. Thank you for your attention today.
