Operator: 2026. During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on their telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to head of IR and communication, Anders Berg. Please go ahead.
Anders Berg: Thank you very much. Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of Pandox Q3 Interim Report for 2026 on a rather gray morning here in Stockholm. I am here together with Liia Nõu, our CEO, and Anneli Lindblom, our CFO. Today we have the pleasure once again of having both Aoife Roche, vice president at STR, and Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance with us. Aoife and Henrik will provide a shorter hotel market update on Europe and Nordics respectively.
Anders Berg: As you know, STR and Benchmarking Alliance are both leading independent research firms dedicated to the hotel market, and the views they express are completely separate from Pandox. We offer this as a service to Pandox stakeholders. Aoife and Henrik's presentation will take place after we have completed the formal earnings presentation, including the Q&A. We start with Liia and Anneli's business update and financial highlights from the quarter, followed by the Q&A session. With that, I hand over to Liia.
Liia Nõu: Thank you, Anders. Good morning and welcome everyone. Despite continued geopolitical challenges, the hotel market continued to grow during Q3. For Pandox, total revenue and net operating income increased by 15% and 25% respectively, primarily driven by strong performance in the Leases business segment, particularly in Sweden where we saw exceptional growth and a continued contribution from the acquisition of Dalata. Like for like, total revenues and total NOI grew with 4% respectively.
Liia Nõu: Cash earnings per share increased by 31%, while EPRA NAV per share with the dividends paid in April added back increased by more than 17% on an annual basis, demonstrating continued value creation for shareholders. Adjusted for preparatory financial cost of SEK 22 million in the comparable quarter, cash earnings increased by 23%. The Dalata properties performed well during the quarter, generating a rental income of SEK 357 million with strong profitability.
Liia Nõu: For the first nine months of the year, rental income from Dalata amounted to SEK 880 million. Today, we also announced the divestment of seven hotel properties in Denmark and Sweden with an underlying property value of approximately SEK 2.1 billion, which is higher than our book values for the properties. The properties have approximately SEK 130 million in yearly net operating income, and the transactions are expected to close in Q4 this year. At the end of Q3, our loan-to-value ratio was 52.2% compared to 52.4% at the end of Q2 2026.
Liia Nõu: Adjusted for the announced divestments in Denmark and Sweden, the loan-to-value ratio was 51.2%, 1 percentage point down. In the beginning of the quarter, six former Revo Hospitality Group hotels in Germany were transferred to own operations. Annelie will provide more details on the effects from this change later in this presentation. We are active in Europe, the world's largest hotel and tourism market, with strong structural growth drivers. We only invest in hotel properties and create value through active and engaged ownership.
Liia Nõu: We have long-term revenue-based leases with a WAULT of 12.9 years and good guaranteed minimum rent levels with skilled operators. Including the revenue-based leases with Scandic for the Dalata portfolio, the WAULT is 17.1 years. Our property portfolio has an average blended valuation yield of 6.39% and a yield spread of close to 220 basis points. We systematically invest in climate change projects in our portfolio with good returns based on SBTi-validated targets.
Liia Nõu: We have strong cash flow and a balanced financial position, which enable us to drive continuous profitable growth through acquisitions of new properties and investments in our existing portfolio over time. We have a strong and well-diversified hotel property portfolio consisting of 191 hotel properties with more than 42,000 rooms in 11 countries and 90 cities, and with a property market value of approximately SEK 97 billion. We are divided into two mutually supportive and reinforcing business segments, Leases and Own Operations.
Liia Nõu: Leases, where we own and lease out our hotel properties, stands for 84% of our property market value. In our Own Operations, we transform and run hotels in properties we own. Own Operations make up 16% of our property market value. The focus of our portfolio is in strong locations, mainly upper mid-market hotels with mostly domestic demand, which is the backbone of the hotel market, regardless of which phase the hotel market cycle is in. We also have one of the strongest networks of brands and partners in the hotel property industry.
Liia Nõu: This ensures efficient operations and revenue management, which maximize cash flow and property values, a continuous flow of business opportunities. Also, a relatively large part of the investment in leases is shared with the tenant, which of course, lowers our risk. The Dalata properties are performing well. In Q3, they generated rental income of SEK 357 million with strong profitability. For the first 9 months of the year, rental income from Dalata amounted to SEK 880 million.
Liia Nõu: Assuming that the corresponding lease agreements had been in place during the comparative period, revenue growth for the Dalata portfolio in Q3 is estimated at 4% in the UK and 1% in Ireland. Year to date, growth is estimated at 3% in UK and again, 1% in Ireland. The performance is in line with our expectation and confirms the quality of the acquired portfolio. The separation of Dalata's business into a property owning business and hotel operating business is progressing well and is expected to be completed during Q4 2026.
Liia Nõu: Once the process is completed, Pandox will have an even stronger platform for long-term growth and value creation. In parallel, we have engaged in positive discussions with banks regarding the refinancing of the current acquisition financing for Dalata, replacing it with secured property financing. Indications are that this could be done at a clearly lower credit margin, that we most likely also can increase our liquidity reserve at that point, should we so desire. Here we have a breakdown of the performance in the first 9 months of 2026 for a selection of countries, regions, and cities versus the first 9 months of 2025.
Liia Nõu: We show average daily rate on the vertical axis and occupancy on the horizontal axis. Thus, orange is the point corresponding to 2025 on both ADR and occupancy. In the boxes, we indicate how much higher or lower RevPAR is compared with the corresponding period 2025. The circles indicate the share of Pandox property market values in each country. Basically all markets have grown this year in terms of RevPAR. The best performing markets in the period are Sweden, Denmark, and the UK. Belgium shows a slight decline.
Liia Nõu: Aoife Roche from STR and Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance will shed more light on these underlying trends in the hotel market later in this call. Investments in our standing portfolio is an important part of our business model, of course, capital allocation. At the moment, we have approximately 50 projects planned and ongoing in 8 different countries. The total investment volume for this project is approximately SEK 4.1 billion, of which some SEK 1.9 billion has already been spent. The stabilized target yield on cost on the total amount is approximately 9.4%.
Liia Nõu: The estimated stabilized NOI represents the additional, or say incremental, annual NOI generated once these investments have reached their full potential, normally after 2 to 4 years. In 2026 and 2027, our planned investments are higher than normal due to 3 large projects. It's the conversion of Clayton St Andrew Square in Edinburgh, planned completion in Q1 2027.
Liia Nõu: The extension of Clayton Hotel Cardiff Lane in Dublin, and the extension of DoubleTree by Hilton Brussels City, planned to be completed in H2 2027. In these projects, we have already invested more than SEK 1 billion, basically with a zero return so far, since they have yet to be launched commercially. As a final note, divestments are an important part in driving capital efficiency. The announced divestments in Denmark and Sweden show we are both willing and capable of exploring that when the price is right. With that, I hand over to Anneli Lindblom, our CFO.
Anneli Lindblom: Thank you. Thank you, Lia, and good morning everyone. In Q3, total revenue and group net operating income increased by 23% and 29% respectively, driven by the acquisition of Dalata and positive like-for-like growth. Leases reported growth of 37% in revenue and 39% in net operating income. Like-for-like growth was 7% and 8% respectively, driven by the exceptionally strong demand in Sweden and to some extent also in Denmark. The UK and Germany also contributed positively to like-for-like growth in the quarter. Own operations reported higher revenues and lower NOI.
Anneli Lindblom: Like-for-like revenues increased by 1%, RevPAR was unchanged, while NOI decreased by 6%. Underlying, Germany performed well, while London and Brussels continued to struggle due to a combination of factors such as disruption in the inbound travel from the Middle East for London, and supply and weaker meeting demand in Brussels. Brussels was also affected by an increase in tourist tax. On top, we also had a one-time cost, including pre-termination of 2 management agreements in the period.
Anneli Lindblom: As we wrote in the report, and as Liia said, in the beginning of Q3, we also took over the hotel operations for 6 of the 9 hotel properties previously leased by Revo Hospitality Group. That added hotel revenue of SEK 96 million to the segment own operation at a lower-than-average profitability, and it did lower the rent segment by SEK 37 million in the business segment leases. In business area leases, we also had a one-time cost of SEK 11 million related to the Revo process.
Anneli Lindblom: The 6 own operated hotel properties remain classified as investment properties while we explore the possibility to lease them out again. Reported and adjusted cash earnings grew 31% and 23% respectively in Q3, reflecting both Dalata and strong underlying growth in the lease portfolio. As we wrote in the report, going into Q4, our comps will be a bit more difficult since we have in the numbers from early November 2025. On this slide, we show the change in the main valuation parameters for the total property portfolio year-to-date.
Anneli Lindblom: Please remember that investment properties are recognized as fair value, and according to IFRS, unrealized changes in value for operating properties are only reported for the information purpose and is included in our EPRA NAV calculation. For the period, the total unrealized changes in value were -342 million. We had a positive effect from lower yields in leases and a negative effect from both cash flow and yields in own operations.
Anneli Lindblom: Property values also benefited from a depreciation of the Swedish krona. End of the period, the average valuation yield for investment properties with some rounding effects rose marginally to 6.32%. For operating properties, it was unchanged at 7.68%, and the blended yield edged up 3 basis points to 6.39%. Here we have the average yield, the average interest on debt, and EPRA NAV per share quarterly. The average interest on debt end of period increased 7 basis points to 4.08% from 4.01% in Q2, and the yield spread narrowed slightly down to some 230 basis points.
Anneli Lindblom: At the end of the period, EPRA NAV was SEK 242.22 per share, representing a solid 17.4% annualized growth, adjusted for paid dividends in 2026. Our LTV at the end of the quarter amounted to 52.2%. Adjusted for the divestment in Denmark and Sweden, the LTV was at 51.2%, and we are well within our financial policy range on both numbers. The ICR on a rolling 12-month basis was 2.4 times, and cash and credit facilities amounted to SEK 3.5 billion. The trend with good demand from banks and lower credit margins remained intact. We were very active on new financing and refinancing in the quarter.
Anneli Lindblom: New loans and refinancing amounted to SEK 16 billion for the period. The average repayment period was 1.9 years, and at the end of the quarter, we have SEK 15 billion on debt maturing within 1 year, and this is including the acquisition facilities related to Dalata. As said previously, the average interest on debt increased by 7 basis points to 4.08% in Q3 compared with Q2.
Anneli Lindblom: This is explained by slightly higher base rate and expiration of some favorable hedge contracts. We have positive discussions ongoing with Nordic and the international banks to refinance the acquisition facility with traditional net property-backed bank financing, indicatively at clearer, lower margins. Bank appetite to finance our hotel properties remains very strong. At the moment, approximately 50% of the net debt is hedged, compared with 59% in Q2. With that, I will hand back to Liia for some final remarks.
Liia Nõu: Thank you, Anneli. Despite all the turbulence in the world, the world economy and the hotel market have remained resilient. The outlook for the hotel market in Europe remains positive. For us, inflation and rising interest rates is the main concern. However, variable leases offer protection by direct exposure to underlying hotel pricing.
Liia Nõu: As Anneli said, 58% of our net debt is hedged, and we see good potential to complete upcoming refinancing at clearly lower credit margins than we currently have in our loan portfolio. In addition, we have quite a few larger renovated hotels that are expected to gradually contribute to our earnings in 2027. For Q4 2026, underlying cash earnings face, again, a challenging comparable quarter due to SEK 263 million of extraordinary costs in the comparable quarter last year.
Liia Nõu: Also, remember Dalata was included from 7 November last year, and higher financial costs compared with last year. Thank you. We now move over to the Q&A. Operator, we are now ready for questions. Please do not forget to hand the call back to us afterwards after our external speaker's presentation.
Operator: If you wish to ask a question, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Robert Phillips from Green Street. Please go ahead.
Robert Phillips: Thank you very much for the presentation. I just had two questions. I will go one by one. Firstly, I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more color on your forward bookings for Q4 and perhaps early 2027. Of course, airlines have been warning, particularly in the last few weeks, about higher fares for next year. I was just wondering also if you had seen any changes to lead times.
Liia Nõu: Right. Thank you. Thank you, Robert. When we look at the business on books, in basically all our markets with one exception, if I remember right, then they are at or above the same level as they were previous years. The only slightly weaker is Norway, but this is marginally lower than at the same time. For the Nordic countries and even for Finland, we look at Brussels, et cetera, then business on the book is either at or above the same level.
Robert Phillips: Perfect. Thank you very much. Secondly, just on US demand, of course, it has been a very strong driver of the European hotel market broadly, and it has softened quite a lot this year. I was just wondering if you have seen any impact of this on certain markets like the UK and Ireland, as well as the weak demand from the Middle East.
Liia Nõu: Yes. Thank you. Yes, we were a little bit worried about this also in the beginning of the year, especially after the February events. But it has still been more than previous years, but it has slightly weakened, even though it is above from US to inbound Europe. However, when we look at Europe travelers going to US, it has actually increased with 9% or so. So the net-net effect of that is actually positive. But slightly weaker versus what it was in the beginning of the year, but it is still above the levels of last year.
Robert Phillips: Perfect. Thank you very much.
Liia Nõu: Thank you.
Operator: As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Véronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Véronique Meertens: Hey, good morning, all. Thank you for the presentation and taking my questions. Two questions from my side as well. First on the nine Revo assets, could you give a bit more color on what exactly the plan is for the six ones transferred to own operations? Do you actually expect to spend some CapEx there? Are there already discussions with future tenants? What was exactly the reason between those six moving to own operations and the other three still in leases?
Liia Nõu: Yes. Thank you. The six operating assets which we are taking into our own operations so far, we are assessing them, and we see good potential of actually fixing the patient. The patient is slightly ill. We have to fix the patient, and then we are planning to lease them out. At this point in time, we do not see large CapEx needs, but of course, there will be a lot of different efficiency activities, everything from smaller CapEx needs, et cetera.
Liia Nõu: When it comes to comparing the six with the three ones which we are in discussions with, or which the administrators are in discussion with of leasing out, there is an existing dialogue going on with an expected tenant and the administrator of the bankruptcy portfolio. This is an ongoing discussion between the administrator and the future tenant. Hopefully this will be all ready in this Q4.
Véronique Meertens: Okay, that is helpful. Thank you. Secondly, you mentioned there was a very small yield shift in Q3 for your leases. Just curious how your discussions are with the appraisers for Q4 or what your own view is towards these property yields in this higher rate environment that we are currently in.
Liia Nõu: Well, as you know, every quarter, we assess all of our 191 properties with external yield assumptions. There have been minor revisions from the external yields, and that has been basically more on second-rated locations. It is a blended mix of everything what is happening going on. So far, it is difficult. We do not know more than the external evaluators, but in this current environment, we are in line with what the external evaluators view as the proper yields. We have externally evaluated 75 of our 191 properties in Q3 as well.
Véronique Meertens: Okay. Thank you.
Operator: There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions.
Liia Nõu: Now I would like to hand over to our first guest speaker, Aoife Roche from STR, for a European hotel market update. After Aoife's presentation, Henrik Karlsson from Benchmarking Alliance will make a presentation which focus on the Nordic hotel market. Again, please remember that Aoife and Henrik's presentations are totally separate and independent from Pandox, and also arranged as a service to our stakeholders. Please go ahead, Aoife.
Aoife Roche: Good morning, and thank you, Lea, for the introduction. First up, I am going to focus on European demand with a deep dive into the UK and Ireland, and then Henrik Karlsson will follow with more information on the Nordics. Globally, demand is up by 1.2%. As you can see, it is the Asia Pacific performance that is leading the way, with India out on top, growing by 7%. The US has also made its way to the top this month year-to-date after a bumper summer, particularly June and July, due to the World Cup months.
Aoife Roche: Actually, this year has been performing well overall for the US. Demand is up by 15 million rooms, and we forecast RevPAR growth of 4.4% for full year 2026. Now, much like rest of world, the majority of that ADR growth is coming through the upper tiers, luxury, upper upscale, and upscale, indicating some international demand as Lea referenced coming back into the US, but also some US travelers staying domestically rather than traveling outbound, which we have felt in Europe a little bit this year. Europe as a whole is up around 2%.
Aoife Roche: You can see at the top there, Spain, France, and Germany growing demand at around that 2% mark, and the UK slightly below at 0.8%. Of course, GCC countries demand continues to be turned negative, back 16% now year-to-date, and this has improved by about 9 percentage points since the onset of the conflict. Despite the conflict, rooms and construction remain very elevated in the Middle East region. As you can see, 11.7% growth on existing supply expected.
Aoife Roche: For Europe, a growth of 3% is expected on its current 6.6 million rooms. There are 192,000 rooms currently in construction, according to CoStar data. For the UK, there are 26,000 rooms in construction, which would result in a 3.5% growth on existing supply. In the UK, it is really London, Edinburgh, and Manchester that have the highest rooms in construction, and you will see the impact of that in the forecast as I move through this presentation. With supply growth relatively moderate in Europe and in the UK, this has allowed for some occupancy gains, so 1% growth.
Aoife Roche: After a strong summer in Europe overall, occupancy has reached a peak of 72%, so over 7 in 10 rooms sold in Europe year-to-date. Most European markets, particularly the urban markets, are running exceptionally high occ. I count 9 markets with 80% or more in occupancy. York, interestingly, at the top in the UK, right down to the Canary Islands in 9th place. So very high occupancy for the most part, and the majority of markets are running in the 70s. With the exception of the Middle East and Central America, all regions are seeing very similar occupancy trends.
Aoife Roche: We have established over the year that demand growth is not necessarily fundamental for rate growth, but it also is not just inflation. Supply and demand factors contribute significantly to ADR outcomes, and we continue to see double-digit ADR growth in Europe. Countries such as Turkey and Italy are really dominating that statistic. But it is worth noting that there has been little to no supply coming into these markets in the past 12 months. So there really is that strong relationship between the two. Like I said, Europe's summer performance was excellent.
Aoife Roche: As expected, weekend occupancy in coastal markets was very strong throughout July and August, confirming that the expected intra-regional travel, the strength of that intra-European travel, really played out in the coastal and leisure markets. Many leisure city markets also saw occupancy grow on the weekends. I can name Istanbul, Barcelona, and Madrid. All of those leisure-driven markets grew very well over the summer. With strong weekend performance and US inbound still holding up for Southern Europe, Spain and Portugal have continued to see strong growth beyond that 5% mark.
Aoife Roche: With luxury and upper upscale classes still growing very strongly in terms of ADR, and of course, those key Southern European markets seeing that strong interregional travel, RevPAR growth has been strong through the summer and into September, as you can see here. We certainly cannot thank just the US inbound travel coming back in September for this 10% growth, but we can attribute some of it to that return, as you will see in the next slide. I think we can also attribute it to the weather. Many leisure markets saw strong ADR growth in the month of September.
Aoife Roche: There were a few outliers like Glasgow and some German markets, saw a really good, strong September, and a lot of that was event-led rather than purely underlying market growth. Hamburg benefited from a very large Messe in shipbuilding and maritime, SMM. Berlin hosted a major international congress, ESPEN, a medical congress, and Munich's September event and, of course, the Oktoberfest, are creating additional compression. Last, for Glasgow, continued a success in terms of attracting conference and events.
Aoife Roche: They hosted the European Association for International Education in the SEC, which again resulted in a strong month. September overall, it has been a wonderful start to the second part of the year. I mentioned that 10% growth coming through in September and some attribution to the US. Although we have seen very moderate growth in US inbound in Europe, and particularly in the UK year to date, you can see that September, we have seen a little bit of a comeback with 4% growth. So really pleased to see that comeback. In terms of occupancy levels remain very high for Northern Europe on the whole.
Aoife Roche: The UK and Ireland are selling 8 in 10 rooms, excuse me, that are available this year. So we are seeing some good results in terms of occupancy. I have highlighted the Nordics here, running 68% on average year to date and sitting in the top 3 in terms of occupancy growth. With the average occupancy in Europe sitting at 72%, there are some hotspots. Like I mentioned, York was one, but Dublin and Edinburgh as well. European occupancy in 2019 was, for the full year, 72%. So I wonder whether we have reached that ceiling or if there is room for further growth.
Aoife Roche: Let us see. In terms of year-on-year growth, there is, like I said, that constant game of tag between supply and demand growth. There are already very high occupancies for some markets. So this results in some mediocre gains. You can see for the most part, you have got stability in occupancy across key European markets. And for some, we are seeing growth, particularly over in the eastern part of Europe, where we continue to see that double-digit growth. In terms of rates, I mentioned European rate has grown just by 3% year to date.
Aoife Roche: We do know that is skewed slightly towards the south and of course inflated by the Milan Olympics when we look at Italy. France has grown well just behind it with 8.4% growth with a strong summer behind it. Resorts are underpinning a lot of that growth in Southern Europe that you are seeing. It is not the urban markets that are really underpinning that strong double-digit growth. Southern Europe's ADR is out of proportion, and you can see for firstly, you can see the growth here. You can see on the next slide that Southern European ADR is out of proportion with the rest.
Aoife Roche: It accounts for 54% of Europe's ADR, whereas supply is just 41% of the total supply in Europe. You can see really that total number is changed by the Southern European performance. The European average year to date is €156. Eastern Europe is recording €107, Southern Europe, €192. You can see the difference there. The rest in the middle, running at around €140. Let's go to the United Kingdom and look at that in a bit more detail. UK demand growth year to date, as I mentioned to August, actually was 0.8%. That grew slightly upwards in September, rising to 0.9% when we include September into that demand.
Aoife Roche: We finally see, like I mentioned, that acceleration in US inbound to the UK with 4% growth in the month of September, finally matching that of Europe. As you can see in previous months, it was well below the European average, and of course, well below that Italian average. There is a narrative around September perhaps becoming less of a shoulder season and certainly more attractive to the US inbound traveler for price, temperature, of course.
Aoife Roche: We are continuing to see lots of interregional travel through the shoulder seasons, which is helping to lengthen the seasons for many markets previously with shorter summer seasons. In the UK, almost eight in 10 rooms have been sold, so a very good performance, and it is pretty much on par with 2025. Up 3%. You can see again, September confirming that much of the RevPAR growth is coming through ADR, as we see that blue series continue into September.
Aoife Roche: UK hotel occupancy has stabilized, with markets sitting at around 78%, but most markets sitting at 70% and above. We have, of course, some exceptions. Dublin leading the charge there with 85%, matching Edinburgh again with 85%. Some strong performance in ADR. That 125 average, although it is below the European average, it is very much on par with the Northern European averages. We see some outliers. Again, London, no surprise, with luxury and upper upscale driving a lot of that performance. Dublin as well, performing really well, 181. Edinburgh, 177. The usual suspects continue to drive the ADR.
Aoife Roche: Let's look forward a little bit here. We can see that the past decade has seen rates grow exponentially. In September, there is a delta of just €61 when compared to September 2017. In 10 years, we have seen a 50% gain in rate for Europe as a whole. If we look to the UK, the same data, but just for the UK, there is a £41 delta, or exactly 41%. The majority of this gain has been made, of course, in the recovery post-COVID, in those few years post-COVID, but the growth, as you can see, continues into 2026.
Aoife Roche: The leaderboard in the UK, Glasgow, Edinburgh, and many regional non-urban markets have seen the strongest growth, again confirming the strength of domestic demand and again starting to see that intra-regional return. If we look ahead, this is just European markets, 2027 RevPAR expectations for Europe are pretty stable to negative in some markets, but there is a much more buoyant outlook for 2028.
Aoife Roche: You can see 2027 in more detail here for all of the markets that CoStar forecasts. We can see the majority of markets will see positive RevPAR growth in 2027. If we go to the last part of this chart, we can see some negative growth, but much of this is due to year-on-year comparisons. If we take Milan, without the Winter Olympics, of course, there will be decline. We can see some other markets. Glasgow, again, a lot of non-repeat events for Glasgow, Commonwealth Games being one of them. There will be a negative performance.
Aoife Roche: Belfast and Dublin suffering from additional supply for the most part that will impact their RevPAR outlook in 2027. For the UK, we do anticipate another mixed year again in 2027. We do expect limited supply growth and, of course, the resumption of flights to and from the Middle East, along with improved inbound demand from the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Now we can count hopefully on the US inbound will support Gatwick and Heathrow business. With occupancies high, rate is, of course, the only lever for these airport hotels.
Aoife Roche: In the middle, we have London and Manchester that will absorb a lot of new supply in 2027, which will result in low to no occupancy gains. London will also see a lot of midscale and economy supply come through, but rates will come through and drive RevPAR growth for those markets. As I mentioned, Glasgow, the only one with significant declines year-on-year due to the lack or non-repeat events will give it a softer outlook for 2027 on the whole. If we just compare again longer term, looking at London and regional UK side by side.
Aoife Roche: RevPAR growth looks healthy both in 2027 and into 2028 for both London and the regions. Of course, we do not expect the 10-year CAGR ADR to be repeated as we go forward, but we do expect to see positivity in ADR in 2026 and beyond into the future years. Do look out for our November forecast, which will be coming out at the end of November, where we will dive into the Euro's impact in more detail. For now, we are expecting all classes and markets to be impacted positively, but it may be the lower classes moment now as new supply is ready and ready to ramp up for future.
Aoife Roche: Thank you very much. I am going to hand over to Henrik, I believe. I may need to just flip through these slides for you, Henrik, and I will hand over now.
Henrik Karlsson: Okay. Thank you very much. My name is Henrik. I am from Benchmarking Alliance. In my presentation, we will have a look at the latest market data from the Nordics in particular, but also a little bit from the Baltic region. The data includes September 2026, and it is based on more than 2,000 hotels and conference venues that use our benchmarking service and report their data daily to us in this region. If we start by looking at the RevPAR by country in the Nordics and the Baltics. Year to date, January to September 2026 versus last year. Sweden and Denmark lead at +8.2% and 8.0% in RevPAR increase.
Henrik Karlsson: They are well ahead of the rest of the region. However, most of the countries show a positive development the first three quarters. Latvia is the only country that is down -1.3% after week September. We will get back to the reason for this drop in the next slide. The bubble size here shows how large each market is in rooms available per night. Sweden and Norway carry most of the regional volume here. Lithuania is still a small market for us, why the numbers here are based on a smaller selection of hotels compared to the other markets. If we move on to the capitals.
Henrik Karlsson: Also here, year to date from January to September, Stockholm leads on RevPAR at +11.2%, with Copenhagen close behind at 8.3%. Helsinki and Tallinn are above last year after a strong September, leaving Riga as the only capital below last year at -1.5%. That dip is largely explained by the EuroBasket championships, which Riga hosted last September and which filled the city at high rates for several days.
Henrik Karlsson: In Stockholm, the ECCO Congress in February, the EHA Congress in June, two concerts in July from Bad Bunny and one concert in August from The Weeknd, combined with a generally stronger demand, all contributed to the city's growth. Oslo's RevPAR growth in H1 2026 was notably more modest by comparison, as Nor-Shipping Conference in 2025 proved difficult to replace. However, the summer and a very strong September brought growth back into positive figures for Oslo. Copenhagen's success story continues.
Henrik Karlsson: In Q1, several major medical congresses had a positive effect on both demand and pricing. Q2 was somewhat slower, but the year-to-date development remained strong, and the new record number of turnaround cruises, together with a general increase in demand, also lifted the summer business in Copenhagen. Reykjavik picked up after a slow start, once again showing that summer is its high season. This year also, the solar eclipse that was totally visible from Iceland and took place in August generated a lot of extra demand.
Henrik Karlsson: Helsinki had fewer congresses in May and June compared to last year and continues to face challenges in winning back demand from Asian markets. Even so, a stronger September in both Helsinki and Tallinn pushed both cities into positive growth year to date. If we look at RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy by capital, also here year to date, January to September, you can see that the development in Stockholm and Copenhagen is driven mainly by higher average daily rate. In Reykjavik, the same, even if the occupancy drop from the beginning of the year still shows year to date.
Henrik Karlsson: This is the same view as the previous slide, but here also with TRevPAR in orange color added next to RevPAR. TRevPAR is calculated from total revenue instead of room revenue and includes ancillary revenue. Ancillary revenue is everything from meeting and events revenue, food and beverage, such as restaurants, bar, room service, as well as other revenue in the hotel, such as parking, spa, or other additional income the hotel might have. In Stockholm, the TRevPAR increase is slightly lower than in RevPAR.
Henrik Karlsson: Ancillary revenue decreased in all Scandinavian capitals year to date. Why I push this here is that it is very wise to also benchmark your TRevPAR to make sure that you are not losing out on your RevPAR increase on the other outlets in the hotel. Conference trends in the Nordics. In our service conference trends, we measure total conference revenue per available square meter. The trend overall, in the Nordics is right now very positive. It is so far this year, up 11.5% in total revenue per square meter. Revenue per delegate is up 6.3%, and delegates per square meter is up 4.9%.
Henrik Karlsson: July is the low season, obviously, with a very small base, which explains the largest swings that month. Currently, we measure the revenue generated from 142,700 square meters of conference space, and this coverage will increase drastically the coming months as we will have a lot more data coming into this service. If we go back to hotel data and we look at the capitals of the Nordics and the Baltics and how they have grown in 2026 so far. Here we look at ADR change against occupancy change, January to September.
Henrik Karlsson: Stockholm and Copenhagen grew in both KPIs and are the RevPAR leaders at +11.2% and 8.3%. Oslo has moved into the same quadrant, but mostly on rate. Reykjavik, Vilnius and Riga are rate led, so ADR is up 1.5% to 6%, while occupancy actually falls. In Riga, not enough to hold RevPAR. Helsinki and Tallinn are the opposite. More rooms sold at a slightly lower rate. What is worth mentioning here is that no capital is actually down on both rate and occupancy. If we look at the different segments and the development year to date, Stockholm is up in every segment and led by mid-scale at +12.7%.
Henrik Karlsson: Copenhagen grows across the board, but tapers towards budget. Oslo is up in every segment, though upscale is close to flat at +0.3%, and Helsinki splits. Luxury is up 10.5%, while upscale and the combined mid-scale budget concepts are down. Figures here are local currency, so only the change is comparable between the cities. If we look at the regions versus the capitals, we can see that it is actually occupancy that decides. Rate increase is more or less the same in the capitals as in the regional cities in the Nordics. All 68 regional cities consolidated here against the five capitals.
Henrik Karlsson: Capitals grow RevPAR 6.8% against 4.8% for the regions. We will go a little bit more into details on the regional cities in the coming slides here. First, just to look at all the 68 regional markets that we measure across Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Estonia in one map. Every city in the cities report except the capitals. 57 of the 68 regional markets are up. Just to mention a few, in Finland, the regions grew 4.5% against Helsinki only with 0.9%. In Finland, the regional cities are driving the development.
Henrik Karlsson: The Norway regional versus capital show a similar development. Regions +1.6% against Oslo 1.8%. In Sweden and Denmark, the capital leads. Stockholm 11.2% plus, as we mentioned before, and Copenhagen 8.3% has proven difficult to beat for the regional markets. The strongest regional markets are Jönköping and Piteå. The weakest ones are Haugesund and Trondheim, and we will get back to the reason for this in the coming slides. We start with Sweden, a geographic view of the RevPAR development year to date. Sweden is in total +8.2%, and the growth here is very broad.
Henrik Karlsson: Out of the 37 markets we measure in Sweden, 32 are up. The strongest are Jönköping, Piteå, Helsingborg, and Stockholm. The declines are small and few. Södertälje, Gävle, and Västervik. The reason for Jönköping to increase has a lot to do with the Elmia Fair. The custom motor show, especially, ran over the Easter weekend, which obviously is a very good period to host a high-demand event. Also the Produktionsmässor, the Elmia Production Fairs, six parallel trade fairs about manufacturing that ran 19 to 22 May. Piteå, the main driver here was the Piteå Summer Games.
Henrik Karlsson: It is a large international youth sports tournament that was held in end of June. The drop in Gävle, the reason here is the finals in Swedish ice hockey, last year. That is obviously difficult to replace. As well as the Swedish championships in Bodø. On top of this, the corporate demand in general is also slower in Gävle so far this year. Moving on to Norway. Same geographic view, but for Norway this time. Bodø hosted three UEFA Champion League games in Q1.
Henrik Karlsson: Harstad/Narvik experienced a especially strong Q1 due to the NATO exercise that was held in this area, and also the Junior Alpine World Championships in March. The increase in Tromsø seems to have slowed down after several years of strong growth. Trondheim, the drop here can almost only be explained in last year's World Ski Championships. That was obviously not replaced this year. The Haugesund drop seemed to be mainly driven by less corporate demand from the shipping industry that is right now in a slow period. As well, the supply of hotel rooms has increased in Haugesund with 14%.
Henrik Karlsson: Moving on to Denmark. Denmark year to date in total, 8%. Most of the markets are increasing here. Outside Copenhagen, the picture is pretty flat. Aalborg and Kolding, 3.8%, Aarhus 3.4%, Odense 0.2%. Vejle is the one declining at minus 1.3%, but also here we have a lot of new supply coming into a pretty small market, so that has a high impact. Tórshavn in the Faroe Islands is the strongest city, increasing with 16.4%, and was mainly positively affected by the EU Arctic Congress in May. In Finland, all markets we cover in Finland are in growth this year so far.
Henrik Karlsson: Finland is 2.3% year to date. Helsinki is a third of the reported supply here at only 0.9% increase. The capital region holds the national figure down, actually. The growth is regional here. We see Vaasa increasing, Rovaniemi, Joensuu. Rovaniemi, the Arctic tourism, Santa Claus, bringing people still from all over the world to Rovaniemi. Also a lot of increased direct flights this winter. Joensuu hosted a World Cup competition in biathlon, and that is obviously a huge impact for such a small market. What is really nice to see is that Finland markets, in general, look really healthy right now.
Henrik Karlsson: Last but not least, we will look into the future a little bit and the future bookings. This is a summary page, and the data here is as per 1 October, and we look 365 days ahead. Here we look into 2027 as well. We compare with on the books same time last year. I think we will move on into the cities' individual slides, and we start with Copenhagen here. The rooms on the books smoothen down by rolling seven days value. The occupancy booked right now for the coming year is 20.2%, and this is 11.8% higher compared to the same time last year.
Henrik Karlsson: The ECCO Congress that was held in Stockholm 2026 is actually next year held in Copenhagen, and that can be seen already in the beginning of March here in the numbers. The orange dotted line showed last year actual, indicating how much is still to be expected to be picked up. Moving to Stockholm, we have a pretty similar on the books compared to last year, but slightly down. As we just mentioned about the ECCO Congress, that is not coming back to Stockholm end of February. We can see that here in the last year numbers.
Henrik Karlsson: EHA Congress could be seen at this time last year as well in the graph for June. Also, the concerts that I was mentioning before, the Bad Bunny concerts in Strawberry Arena, had already created demand at this time last year and is not replaced really at the same time this year. In April, the ESCMID Congress can already be seen here, bringing bookings to Stockholm. In total, Stockholm is 3.8% behind last year's on the books level right now. Moving on to Oslo, the men's EHF Euro Handball Championships in January could be seen this time last year.
Henrik Karlsson: However, large part of the spring and the summer 2027 is right now below last year. The occupancy on the books in Oslo is right now 18.8% for the coming year, and that is 8.9% below last year same time. Moving on to Helsinki, showing a strong on the books for the coming year, up by 22.4%. In November, we have two NHL Global Series Finland games, which is creating a lot of demand into Helsinki. Mid-June is probably positively affected by the International Conference on Philosophical Practice that will take place in Helsinki.
Henrik Karlsson: However, a general increase can be seen, and out of the next 365 days, 273 of them has a higher booked occupancy compared to same time last year. Let's go to the island of Iceland and Reykjavik. The book is ahead of last year on 230 of the 365 days. The widest lead over last year is summer 2027. The demand that occurred for the solar eclipse can also be seen here clearly in the numbers from last year. However, even without a solar eclipse in the books this year, Reykjavik show positive trend in hotel bookings right now, +4.6% versus same time last year. Thank you very much. That was all for me.
Operator: I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Liia Nõu: Thank you, Eva, and thank you, Henrik Karlsson, for your appreciated hotel market updates. Thank you all for participating in this call. We really appreciate your time and interest in Pandox. Our year-end report for 2026 will be published on 4 February 2027. Finally, we would like to remind you of our Hotel Market Day on 17 November in Stockholm. We hope to see you there. Safe travels and goodbye.
Operator: The host has ended this call. Goodbye.
