Q2 2019 Earnings Call
Please standby we're about to begin.
Good day and welcome to the Duke Energy second quarter earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time I'd like turn the conference over to Mr., Mike Callahan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead Sir.
Thank you Eric Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining Duke energy second quarter 2019 earnings review and business update.
Leading our call today is Lynn good chairman, President and CEO , along with Steve Young Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Today's discussion will include forward looking information and the use of non-GAAP financial measures slide two presents the safe Harbor statement, which accompanies our presentation materials. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures can be found on Duke energy Dot com and in today's materials. Please note. The onyx for todays presentation includes supplemental information and additional disclosures.
As summarized on slide three during today's call and we'll provide an update on the quarter and progress on our strategic initiatives.
She will also discuss legislative and regulatory activity in North Carolina.
Steve will then provide an overview of our second quarter financial results and insight about economic and load growth trends.
He will also provide an update on our regulatory and financing activities. This year before closing with key investor considerations with that let me turn the call over to Lynn.
Mike Thank you and good morning, everyone.
Today, we announced strong results for the quarter, which reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.12.
Compared to 93 cents in the prior year.
Our results today represents 6% growth over last year and give us confidence as we reaffirm our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance range of 480 to 520.
We also reaffirmed our long term earnings spreads target a 46% to 320 23.
With solid growth across all three operating segments, we are executing our long term strategy to transform the customer experience.
And deliver value for our shareholders our investments in the energy grid cleaner generation and natural gas infrastructure ensure Duke energy is well positioned to build a smarter low carbon energy future.
In addition, we remain committed to the dividend.
And for the 13th consecutive year, we increased our quarterly dividend to shareholders.
Shifting to operations, let me highlight several noteworthy accomplishments on slide four.
First Piedmont natural gas was recognized as one of America's most trusted brands among utilities.
Continuing to prove the franchise is value.
As well as its unwavering dedication to safety and impressive customer service.
We also remain steadfast in our focus on operational excellence I'm very proud of our employees commitment to providing reliable affordable and increasingly clean energy to our customers every day.
This was exemplified by the strong performance of our system. During the recent sustained heat wave our teams demonstrated exceptional preparation and collaboration across the company.
And the fleet performed well, while serving near record load in the Carolinas, the Midwest and Florida.
Turning to slide five let me provide an update on how we are advancing our strategic initiative to generate cleaner energy.
And our electric business, the 1.1 billion dollar Western Carolinas modernization project in Asheville remains on track.
On August 5th the combined cycle plant successfully achieved first fire an important milestone in the process to bring the unit online in late 2019.
As a reminder, our comprehensive plan for this region includes retiring an older coal plants building, new natural gas combined cycle units, installing renewables and upgrading transmission and distribution infrastructure.
We've also engage the community to increase energy efficiency demand response adoption and our products and services offerings as we better serve this growing region.
In Indiana, we filed our integrated resource plan and rate case in early July consistent with our cleaner generation strategy key components of our plan includes accelerating coal plant retirements and replacing them with natural gas units again renewable.
Steve will discuss the elements of the rate case filing in more detail in a moment.
We also continue to advance innovative solutions across the southeast, including renewable battery, an easy infrastructure and Florida. We are executing on the investment plan that underpins our multiyear settlement agreement.
The Florida Commission has approved at the recovery of 344 megawatts of previously announced solar projects under the solar base rate adjustment mechanism.
This represents nearly half of the 700 megawatts, we will be installing 320 21.
We also announced 22 megawatts of battery storage projects in the state this quarter kicking off the first wave of our plan to 50 megawatt pilot program.
And the Carolinas, we continue to engage stakeholders on our proposed electric vehicle pilot programs.
Electrification is an important part of the low carbon future and we look forward to spring easy adoption in our communities with its infrastructure.
Also in North Carolina, the first RFP for solar energy under House Bill 589, its complete the second RFP is expected to launch this October and we look forward to participating in the next round of bidding.
In our commercial business, we expanded our portfolio of projects during the quarter in June as 150 megawatt North Rosenbalm solar facility began delivering energy to customers in California.
This is the largest solar project in our renewable linked to date.
In the energy generated from the project will be sold to southern California, Edison under a 15 year PPA.
We also announced 650 megawatts of new projects this quarter, including the acquisition of 37 megawatts of Bloom energy is distributed fuel cell technology, which will come online over the next 18 months.
We continue to bring more visibility to our growth prospects in this segment and are evaluating a modest level of investment to safe Harbor several solar projects preserving the full investment tax credits through our five year plan.
We now have line of sight to substantially all of our growth targets for 2019, and 2020 and approximately 70% over the five year plan.
Shifting to our gas business on slide six AC P. project partners filed a petition on June 25th thinking a Supreme Court review of the Appalachian Trail decision.
We're pleased to have the solicitor general joined the petition has supported the case and we expect the court to decide later this fall it's simple it's great to hear the appeal.
We also recently received an order from the fourth circuit Court of Appeals vacating the projects biological opinion and incidental takes statement, we are evaluating disorder, and we'll work with the fish and wildlife service to resolve any deficiencies.
In anticipation of the swirling work has been underway, including survey work to address certain issues identified at the may 9th hearing and confirmed and the vacant your order.
Our current expectation is that construction resumed by year end.
Recognizing there are several steps that need to take place before we move forward.
We continue to target in service for the first phase of the project by late 2020 and pull pipeline in service and 2021.
Our cost estimate of seven to 7.8 billion remains unchanged.
Finally, we are moving ahead with the construction of our 250 million Robison LNG facility in North Carolina.
This infrastructure will help Piedmont continue providing customers with the most affordable reliable supply of natural gas during peak usage jays protecting customers from price spikes in volatility went extremely low temperatures create higher than normal demand for natural gas.
We expect this facility to be in service during 2021.
Each of these projects aligns with our strategy to expand natural gas infrastructure as we bring much needed gas supply to the underserved southeast.
Moving to slide seven let me share an overview of recent developments in North Carolina.
Senate Bill 559 is pending before the North Carolina General Assembly as a reminder, this bipartisan legislation was introduced in both chambers in early April .
As written and would allow the commission to consider alternative cost recovery mechanisms, including storm costs securitization.
Multiyear rate plans and RSV bands Importantly, the commission would retain its authority to review investments in the prudency of incurred costs just as it does today.
If enacted into law in North Carolina would join in 35 states that already have alternative cost recover recovery frameworks in place.
Which generates significant customer benefits and incentive investments necessary to transform our energy infrastructure.
A multiyear rate plan in North Carolina would provide bill predictability and through investments in the energy delivery system result, in fewer and shorter outages for customers, while enabling more solar and battery installation [laughter] further storm costs securitization would save customers, 15% to 20% on storm costs.
Stakeholders have provided useful input throughout the legislative process strengthening that bill by creating additional consumer protections. The current version of the Bill also provides for utility investments that support low income communities.
The goal, which is sponsored by leading members of the house and Senate has passed the Senate and moved through three required house committees.
Currently remains in the rules committee of the House is the General Assembly addresses other priorities specifically the 2019 budget.
The next step for the bills imposed by the full house before moving to the suburbs and ultimately the governor for his consideration.
Given there is no set end date for this session. We will monitor developments and continue our advocacy work in support of the legislation.
The Bill sponsors remain committed to Senate Bill 559, and the substantial benefits it offers to our customers and our state.
Shifting to coal ash I'm extraordinarily proud of the work underway to meet our commitments in North Carolina.
We successfully closed all three high priority sites ahead of their 2019 compliance deadlines, despite hurricanes and other severe weather of the last few years.
We are also advancing work at the remaining sites.
The legal process to appeal, the North Carolina Department of environmental quality support or to excavate all remaining low risk and low priority basin is also underway.
Well, we share the same goals and permanently and safely closing all basins, we disagree with GE to disposition.
And filed an appeal in April outlining our case.
Last week, the office of administrative hearings heard arguments and a partial motion to dismiss filed by de Q.
The judge dismissed claims related to the procedure DQ used on reaching a decision while allowing the substantive claim on the decision to excavate to move forward.
We plan to proceed with the appeal standing firm, that's an easy decision does not in the best interest of our customers and communities.
We estimate full excavation would cost an incremental four to 5 billion versus a cap in place or hybrid closure methods propose fire utilities.
Imposing significant clubs on customers without measurable benefit to the environment.
We expect the appeal process could take nine to 12 months and we'll keep you informed as we reach milestones during the process.
Before turning it over to Steve I want to reiterate our confidence in our long term strategy and our continued ability to deliver on our commitments.
As the past quarter shows, we're making strides improving the energy grid transitioning our generation fleet and increasing natural gas infrastructure.
But significant investments in renewables progress on regulatory and legislative fronts and ongoing stakeholder engagement, we're advancing our long term vision for Duke energy.
And with that I'll turn it over to Steve.
Thanks, Lynn and good morning, everyone.
I'll start with quarterly results on slide eight, including our adjusted earnings per share variances to the prior year for detailed information on variance drivers and a reconciliation of reported to adjusted results. Please refer to the supporting materials that accompany today's press release and presentation.
On both a reported and adjusted basis 2019 second quarter earnings per share were $1.12.
This compared to reported and adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents and 93 cents, respectively last year.
For the quarter, our reported and adjusted results compared to the prior year were primarily due to growth from investments at the electric and gas utilities and commercial renewables projects placed in service and favorable timing of owning them expenses.
Within the segments electric utilities, and infrastructure was up 13 cents compared to the prior year.
The segment continued to benefit from base rate increases across multiple utilities as well as higher rider revenues that include recovery of our Midwest grid investments going in was also favorable seven cents in the quarter.
These positive drivers were partially offset by higher depreciation from a growing asset base and higher interest expense.
Shifting to gas utilities and infrastructure results were up two cents in the quarter. The increase was largely due to growth from our midstream investments as a reminder, we expect the LDC businesses to deliver the bulk of their remaining earnings contribution in the fourth quarter.
In commercial renewables results were up six cents driven primarily by our North Roselawn Solar project placed in service. This was partially offset by below normal wind resource in a prior year favorable contractual so.
Finally, other contributed one cents for the quarter.
And share dilution drove a three cents decline given we issued shares in December to settle last year's equity forward agreements.
Overall, we are pleased with our strong results for the first half of the year and our solid execution gives us confidence that we will achieve our full year earnings target and deliver on our commitments.
For perspective on key considerations for the back half of the year. Please see the slide we provided in the appendix.
Turning to slide nine we operate in jurisdictions with strong customer growth in economies, a rolling 12 month basis weather normalized retail electric load growth was 0.5% consistent with our full year expectation.
Our residential class continues to contribute to our results with an overall increase in volumes of 0.6% on a rolling 12 month basis.
Robust customer growth fueled by population increases in our attractive service territories support volumes.
Or jurisdictions also enjoy strong employment.
Only 25% of all jobs created over the last year across the nation or in states we serve.
We're also seeing strength in the commercial class with sales up 2.7% over the Rolling 12 months data center expansions continue to lead growth in the sector with strength in the hospitality and leisure segment also helping to offset weakness in big box retail.
Finally sales in our industrial class declined 8.2% on a rolling 12 month basis, a slight improvement from last quarter as expected results continued to be impacted by 2018 production declines for a few large customers and recent outage activities that continue to influence the 12 month Rolling average going forward. We believe these specific outliers will continue to improve.
At a macro level economic indicators for our service areas remains strong.
And reaffirm our long term assumption of <unk>, 0.5% retail load growth for our electric utilities.
Turning to slide 10, let me update you on our active regulatory calendar.
In July we filed our first Indiana rate case in 16 years as Lynn mentioned, the case presents the roadmap to our cleaner generation strategy and also incorporates modern regulatory recovery mechanisms.
These include forward looking test years, and a five year decoupling program for residential and commercial customers.
The requested 395 million dollar revenue increase would cover over two years.
Would occur over two years and is based on a 10.4% or are we in a 53% equity component of the capital structure.
Key drivers of the request include additional depreciation as we accelerate the retirement dates of our coal fleet in the state and investments to serve the more than 100000 customers added since the last rate case.
We expect hearings for the case to commence in January 2020 with rates effective mid 2020.
Let me move to Piedmont natural gas, which filed its first base rate case in North Carolina in six years on April Onest, we requested an $83 million revenue increase to recover cost for necessary infrastructure investments. The evidentiary hearing is scheduled for August 19th and we expect new rates to be effective by the end of the year.
Finally in South Carolina, we filed a motion for rehearing of our D C and D E. P electric rate cases in May.
We requested reconsideration of the 9.5% are are we and the disallowance of certain coal ash costs deemed to be related to implementation of North Carolina as coal Ash Management Act.
On June 19th the state's public Service Commission issued a directive denying our motion for rehearing.
We are awaiting the full order from the commission and are prepared to file an appeal to the South Carolina Supreme Court.
Turning to our other utilities, Duke Energy, Kentucky filed its 30 day notice of an electric rate case on August 1st.
We also continue to evaluate rate case timing in North Carolina for both D C and D and expect to file rate cases for both later this year.
We are executing on our regulatory strategy to recover investments to serve our customers and remain focused on collaborating with stakeholders throughout the process.
Turning to slide 11, let me give you an update on our continued efforts to support our credit ratings and financing plan first in May S&P affirmed our rating of Triple B, plus and revise their rating outlook to negative from the state.
Some of the items. They highlighted are similar in nature and will evolve over time.
S&P provided to 12 to 24 month timeframe to work through these issues and we are focused on reaching resolutions during that time.
We remain committed to our current credit ratings, which reflect our low risk business with tremendous scope and scale geographical and regulatory diversity and constructive regulation.
As we outlined in February or 2019 financing plan assumes a $500 million common equity issuance and to date. We have priced were issued approximately $420 million of that amount. We expect the balance to be issued through our drip in the third and fourth quarters.
We also expect or 2019 credit metrics to be supported by refundable AMC credits of 575 million and the close of our commercial renewables minority stake sale to John Hancock, both of which should occur this fall.
Finally in July we increased our quarterly cash dividend by 2%. This is consistent with our plan to moderate our dividend growth over time, particularly given our robust capital plan.
We continue to target a payout ratio range of 65% to 75%.
Trending to the midpoint of this range over the five year plan.
Our financing plan prudently manages the balance sheet to support Duke Energy's credit quality and maintain financial flexibility as we execute our long term strategy.
I'll close with slide 12.
Our attractive investor value proposition is founded upon our growing dividends, which currently yields approximately 4.3%.
Coupled with earnings growth of 4% to 6% from transparent low risk investments, we offer a compelling risk adjusted total shareholder return of 8% to 10%.
Or scale constructive service areas and ability to execute make Duke energy, a solid long term investment opportunity.
With that let's open the line for your questions.
Thank you and ladies and gentlemen, if youd like to ask a question. Please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad, if youre using a speakerphone. Please make sure. Your function is turned off your signal to reach our equipment again that is star one to signal for a question.
We'll take our first question from sharper Reza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys.
Sure good morning.
So I want to delve into Carolinas policy, a bit and this may be a question for Lloyd So in South Carolina, you, obviously got a low or are we a negative outcome for coal ash, which is on appeal how is sort of the dialogue going in North Carolina I mean, they are obviously seeing what's going on in the two jurisdictions have been somewhat aligned in the past you have at Piedmont case, and you are eventually going to file at Duke and progress in the state so how sort of the conversations flowing in North Carolina, especially we head into these GRC should we be I guess concern that there is some read through to what we're seeing in South Carolina, just from a regulatory constructs standpoint.
Sure I want to be clear that.
We do not see a read through from South Carolina to North Carolina.
North Carolina has historically been a very fair impartial regulatory jurisdiction that reaches decisions based on facts and evidence presented follows from law and we would certainly expect that to be the case as we think about regulatory outcomes moving forward.
Got it Okay Thats helpful. And then just on Senate Bill five Fivenine overseas.
In the prepared remarks still sitting at the house, it's not on the calendar for a vote.
And you certainly highlighted budgetary the lack of a budget as being one of the items that's curtailing it.
Is there sort of anything else you want to highlight that could be pushed your take do you have any sense on sort of timing are we going into sort of a special session. So any sort of.
Incremental color on how the conversations are flowing.
Very helpful.
Sure. We're very pleased with the progress that we've made with Senate Bill 559, we have strong bipartisan sponsorship of the bill.
And as you indicated we are in the rules committee really waiting for other priorities that the general Assembly has in front of them specifically the budget.
I think it's important to recognize that the bill sponsors have continued to express support for moving this legislation.
And it is historically the case and North Carolina that legislation is taken up after the budget or even during a budget impasse. So we continue to actively advocate for the bill.
We think the customer benefits and the policy involved in body in the bill are very strong.
Customer benefits, reducing costs for storms in the range of 15% to 20% and the policy allows for stakeholder settlements and engagements to develop an investment plan that delivers value to customers from storm hardening and resiliency to renewables and improvements in customer experience.
And recently in the House, we also added provisions to encourage low income investment. So we think the combination of good policy and clear benefits to customers.
Our very strong attributes of this bill and we continue to advocate for it I think in terms of timeline, we will have to see how these other priorities continue to shape up there is no specific timeline I would share with you.
But we will continue to update as progress is made.
Got it thanks, and then just strategically when is the last question I know you typically shy away from commenting on any strategic moves, but you've given us some sense and how you think about Santee Cooper in its ongoing process in South Carolina, if you sort of shift to Florida is there any interest in January in case, they pursue a privatization I know the processes. Obviously started in the bids are due by September Thirtyth is there any interest there.
Sure we evaluate opportunities as you would expect as we see things that.
Or in our service territory that we think are a fit for us, but that would be evaluated within the broad context of our business plan and we feel like our organic growth opportunities are quite strong and that would be our highest priority.
Got it congrats guys on a great start.
Sure. Thank you very much.
Thank you we'll next go to Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Good morning.
Hi, Greg warning.
So you guys had a really solid first half.
$2.36.
And I know that you're flagging some timing issues.
But but even with those taking into account adding back.
Assumption on any weather.
And then.
The points that some of them.
Some of the points, Steve made with regard to things that were positive drivers in the first half that should continue to be positive drivers in the second half.
I mean, you only need.
Do a nickel better than last year in the second half to his current consensus for 90 15 cents to get to $5.
So I'm just wondering if you're comfortable articulating a little bit more where you think you'll be in the range given that it seems that consensus.
Be a little bit too low for the balance of the year unless I'm missing some big negative driver that you haven't disclosed.
Greg I'll take a shot and then.
And follow our typical approach on resetting specifics within the range follows the third quarter.
Which is just a statement of the obvious about how significant third quarter can be so we will fine tune the range as we historically have but I think all the points that you're making around the strength of the start to the year and the way we're executing on our plan the way we're controlling costs. The way we're working through our regulatory outcomes gives us a high degree of confidence.
Within the range. So I think we're off to a strong start and the team is focused on delivering and I would expect us to do that waiting to see how weather in August and September plays out so Steve.
Weather been through June and July .
Relative to the July it's been hot.
No doubt.
July's been july's results, we've seen some favorable weather.
The only thing I would add in terms of.
The last half of the year.
Is a bit about shaping we do have as I mentioned, some renewables projects that are slated for the fourth quarter.
And we provided in exhibit there.
But in terms of the year as a whole.
Echo Lynns comments entirely.
Right, but just to just to build on on that statement.
You do have a higher amount of net new megawatts coming into service in the second half.
And 136 megawatts net increase even though that is shape.
Predominantly in the fourth quarter.
At least that said you know Greg the other thing I'd point to in the back half you May remember Florence and Michael.
In the third and fourth quarter last year. So that's another consideration as you think about I will now.
Okay, well congratulations sounds like your.
You are setting up to have.
Good year so congrats.
Great. Thank you and happy to appreciate that.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley .
Hi, good morning.
Good morning, Steve how are you.
Doing great I wanted to touch base on North Carolina legislation.
If the legislation is enacted into law just wanted to get your latest thoughts on what kinds of opportunities perhaps longer term in terms of additional capex additional.
Areas of focus and spending.
If you get that kind of.
Support that we've been looking for.
Stephen I would think about Senate Bill 559, as being an enabler of the capital plan that we have laid out over the next five years you will note that we have more investment in the delivery system really is part of the transformation that we see in the industry and Senate Bill 559 provides an investment mechanism that very closely matches the investment with the benefits to customers. So I would think about it in that context.
And you know as we think about you know actually putting 559 into place we envision a stakeholder process, where the investment priorities over the multiyear period would be informed.
In a way that drives the policy in the state. So this gives us a great opportunity to tailor those investments in a way that drives customer benefits.
But I would think about it within the context of the plan we have in front of you.
We think it's just a very good policy at this stage of the industry transformation.
Understood and maybe shifting gears over to Atlantic Coast, Obviously, we had an unfavorable ruling from the fourth circuit on the biological opinion and incidental takes statement.
And the unfortunate event that revised.
Nice yes is also vacated.
Again.
Would you mind, just talking at a high level to the range of options whether that be other sources of natural gas other approaches.
Generation needs, maybe just I know.
It's premature to talk in detail about.
About what might be done, but just as I'm trying to kind of think through the range of options would you mind, just speaking to that at a high level.
Sure and there are two points I'd like to make Stephen on this and the first one is.
That we are evaluating a this order working closely with project partners and also the fish and wildlife Theres been extensive work done we're in the field now with surveys and our intention is to work with the partners and federal agencies to address the four circuit concerns and you know that in a manner that will withstand further challenge that is our highest priority.
But I think the question that you're raising is.
What about the longer term implications and I would go to the business case for this investment and answer that question because the business case remains extraordinarily strong we need this infrastructure eastern North Carolina needs. This infrastructure not only for the delivery of natural gas, but for continued reduction in carbon emissions as we move away from coal.
And so we will continue to pursue ways that we can get that infrastructure into the state, but our highest priority and we think the best business case for customers at Atlantic Coast pipeline.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you we'll next go to Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning.
Steve could you talk about the.
Timing of owning them that was mentioned in the quarter. Just wondering what are the issues that were being contributed to different timing of owning them throughout the year.
Yes.
What I was referring to.
Basically fleet relates to some outages and timing of outages year over year. So you'll see some non storm ammonium timing that might turn around in the second half of the year Lynn mentioned storms in the prior year. If you look at Stormont NIM in the second half of the year. If we have a more normal second half of the year you might see some favorable when im coming from that but some of the non storm own EM.
May turn a bit in the second half of the year, just because of timing of planned outages and that type of work. So I was just trying to give some flavor for it.
We're very pleased with our efforts on one of them in the first half of the year in response to the mild weather we saw in January and February .
We enacted some efforts in our own and agility is the term we use internally.
To help offset some of the impacts of that and that's showing up as part of the seven cents, but some of its timing as well.
Got it got it.
And on the commercial renewables business, you're about 70% line of sight for the five year plan.
Does that I mean is there a possibility that you might be considering increasing the two and a half million to our investment plan for that segment.
That will be something Michael we look at in connection with our five year planning process, which is underway but.
So as we think about the five years given all of the other capital investment opportunities. We have we're really looking for this segment to consistently deliver kind of at the level at that in 2019, and we have a high degree of confidence in its ability to do that because of the 70% that we've already locked in on growth targets. So.
That's probably the way I would think about it at this point, but you know consistent with five year planning will give every segment a review and make sure. It has our best thinking as we come to the street with guidance in February .
Got you and one last question on that.
On Bloom energy did you guys get involved with fuel cells.
The.
How did that decision process coming about just curious.
Michael we have a team that is looking at what I would call customer solutions.
And so this is a team that works with large industrial large commercial customers and really is working to customized solutions that those customers need to meet their energy requirements that can be renewables that can be battery technology can be micro grids. It could be a fuel cell telecom technology and so the bloom investment was consistent with the growth priorities that that team is focused on.
And we believe this is this notion of customization of the energy for large energy users is a trend that will just continue to grow.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Thanks for the time.
Hey, good morning. So then just going back to some of the comments you made earlier with respect to the the call last quarter with the DQ.
Can you elaborate basically on next steps after the judges actions recently and just some of the specific nuances of how you go forward on on Appeals et cetera.
Sure simply put Julian we're moving forward on the appeal and so what we would expect as a procedural calendar to come out of establishing discovery and hearings and so on.
And so we will continue to challenge the underlying decision itself the science and engineering the cost considerations et cetera, we would expect a hearing to be in 2020.
And we'll know more as the as the calendar is established.
So I think you got it ourselves.
Yes partial dismissal.
Yes, absolutely indeed.
And then just if I can turn the focus back to Indiana quickly you talk about the filing here.
Can you elaborate a little bit with respect to the the planning process and generation decisions I know you talked about some acceleration here, but just more of the specifics here I know the state's gotten a good bit of attention. So I just want to.
Perhaps dig in a little bit.
And you know Julien the.
The team in Indiana has done a lot of very good work to think about a thoughtful approach around the generation mix in the state and so we put together a proposal that.
Shortens the life of certain of the assets and then introduces more investment in renewables and and natural gas, which you'll see in the eye or P plan.
Ah So I think the first thing to focus on is the rate case, which will run over the next six to nine months and then the integrated resource plan is something that will continue to be a topic of discussion and review a in the state. We believe we've put together a very thoughtful approach we've had a very active stakeholder engagement not only with customers, but with policymakers in the state and believe we put forward a very thoughtful plan for Indiana.
Got it okay, but no timeline for further acceleration rate still seems like that the accelerated to free the acceleration is pretty long dated the rate for the remaining asset life.
You know I think I'd ask you to look at it because it is a fair amount of acceleration on a couple of the units.
And then.
Those will be a topic of discussion of course as we go through the rate case, a and when I say, we put together a thoughtful plan I think that in invites and offers an opportunity for further discussion both with regulators and with other intervening parties.
And our commitment is to develop a plan that makes sense for the customers of Indiana, but also continues to lower carbon and we think weve started that conversation well with the rate case and with the ERP.
Excellent. Thank you very much for the time.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you we'll next go to profit Mehta with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Thanks, So much hi, guys.
Good morning, Hello.
Morning.
So a lot of topics covered so far so I appreciate that just wanted to get a little bit more on the North Carolina.
Q did you just talked about the four to 5 billion spend if you could just dimension for us what the risks are if you don't if you're not successful on the appeal in terms of is it also a customer bill impacts and so that's sort of already or is there. Some concern that some part of that four to five is not recoverable.
You probably would make a couple of comments on that on the first one is that the impact of the excavation order has very limited impact on the five year plan, so $2 million to $400 million falling in that five year period, because of the time required to secure permits and construct landfills and other things contemplated by the order.
So we're talking about a period of time that is outside of the five years and with full excavation could could could extend all the way into the 2014 for certain of the sites.
And so I think what it represents is a longer closure period that and in our opinion increases cost without a measurable improvement and environmental benefits and that'll be the discussion as we go forward.
The North Carolina Commission has approved recovery of costs for coal Ash and so I would ask you to look at that order in terms of the pressing the state a and we will continue to make progress on these basins our commitment and do you choose is exactly the same which is to close them safely and thats, where our focus remains as we pursue these legal matters and some fine tuning of the approach over the long term to close the basins.
Gotcha Super helpful. Thank you and then maybe just the same color on the Soc South count on my side in terms of appealing. The case is there could you give us some color on the specific issues that you're you're more focused on and how you see that playing out.
Sure.
In South Carolina profit, we are awaiting a final order on the cases, so weve gotten the directive we've gotten the rehearing, but the actual order on rehearing has not yet been filed.
We would expect it.
Oh in the next period of time, and then we have 30 days to appeal, the order, which we intend to do and we would appeal to the Supreme Court in South Carolina.
The disallowance of coal ash costs will be a part of that appeal.
And I think it's important to recognize that the precedent between north and South Carolina is a long standing one where the benefits between the two states are shared on generation and transmission.
And remediation of coal ash would be a part of the decommissioning of plants and those plants have been shared the benefits of those plants with South Carolina customers over their entire life.
I think it's also important to recognize that both the federal and the state laws establish safe basin closure methods, an excavation as an option in both.
And so we would intend to continue to pursue this I think the timeframe you should think about as probably one to two years.
To work through the process, but the clock doesn't start until we get the order and then file the appeal within 30 days. So we'll continue to keep you posted as it moves through the process.
Gotcha. Thank you and then just finally in terms of getting you having a strong first half.
Is there any assumption on incremental on M. being for forward given you have some budget. There is some room in your numbers to kind of maintain within the guidance just wanted to understand kind of any shipping on the OEM side for the second half.
Well profitable that capability to move on NIM, a back and forth and toggle. It based upon results is a core skill set that we have.
Remains to be seen in the second half of the year.
Dependent upon weather storm activity in those kind of things, whether we'll pull those levers, but I mentioned, we pulled some of them in response to the mild weather in the first couple of months of the year, we have the capability of.
Redirecting on NIM and different fashion, when we see favorable results as well.
But I don't want to give any firm guidance going forward, we still got the third quarter to go.
And the weather and storms sit in front of us, but we do have that capability and propel the objective of all of this is to deliver on our commitment around the guidance that we've we've provided for the street and that's the way we will approach this.
Understood. Thanks, so much guys and congratulations thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Please go ahead.
Hey, guys, just I'm wondering I might ask about.
Want to ask about North Carolina renewables and can you remind us a what's already in your forecast for the amount of renewables you're building in North Carolina, where you've already got an approval through the RFP process and then can you remind us what the limits are and how much you think you could wind up doing kind of beyond what's already known or in your plan.
Yes, Mike I'll take that and regarding the limits to the HB Fiveeighty nine.
Regulations.
There is a limit to our bidding and winning bids to 30 per sales.
Of the Detroit launches that are going to be bid over the next several years.
There is no limit to subsequent acquisition of another bit winning bid these bidders park interest so.
Ultimately, we could own a higher percentage than 30% of the renewables assets from HP 589.
I think for planning purposes, we've got about 30% in our plan.
We typically thought about that being in the commercial renewable segment, but it could be within the regulated business segment or the commercial renewables. The first tranche of that was awarded.
Of the roughly 600 megawatts between regulated and commercial we got about a third of that so I think thats, a reasonable planning assumption going forward.
So roughly a couple of hundred megawatts, a year install runway to or is that a couple of hundred megawatts over several year period.
It will depend upon how much has been through the process. We saw 600 megawatts. Initially was 680 megawatts, but it's only 600 was awarded.
Of the.
If the Traunches stayed at that level, then it might be in the ballpark of 150 to 200 megawatts.
The tranches going forward may be smaller than that as we grandfather other renewables into the process.
But you can think about those numbers those are reasonable numbers to think about.
Got it. Thank you much appreciated thank you Michael.
Thank you and our next question comes from Sophie Karp with Keybanc. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Thanks, good quarter.
Thank you.
[noise] Oh I wanted to also ask a question on a new both seeing maybe from an angle that it's clearly been a very successful program for you and an attractive nation is fair.
We need to do more along those lines. In addition to these trenches maybe you know just strictly in the commercial renewable space.
And how what's your view on the probability that we are going to see some ITC PTC extension.
A couple of things here on the.
On the trenches of renewables that come through.
The H.B. 589, we will continue to participate at that level, we think makes sense we know.
The service area, we know the grid surrounding these assets.
So again I think that will continue to be fruitful for us over the next several years.
Regarding.
ITC and PTC extensions.
Hi, again, we've heard nothing about extending that specifically they are set to expire and.
That is what were basing our plans upon is that those particular tax benefits will begin to wind down.
And Sophie the we commented a moment ago on the strength of the pipeline that sits in the commercial business, we feel very confident with our ability to deliver what's in our five year plan.
And Ah.
We have a robust pipeline to support that I think in terms of the congressional extension of the credits. There was some discussion underway about that we have been supporters of Congress is bipartisan agreement to phase them down.
We believe that the economic competitiveness of the resource is very attractive.
And as a result are supportive of that phase down, but I think we'll have to see what plays out.
You know as as the process continues in Washington.
Gotcha. Thank you and then maybe from a quick follow up on the coal Ash in South Carolina.
So you appeal right now this is a state Supreme Court correct, but Oh, yes. The she is.
How these costs would be allocated between two different states and.
Should we expect this this litigation ultimately find its way to the federal Court.
Yes, I would I believe the South Carolina Supreme Court is where it'll be be decided sofi and there's a great deal of precedent over decades around the allocation of costs between north and South Carolina, We run the generation and transmission system as a system between north and South Carolina and have very established methods of allocating.
And so we will presenting the presenting very strong arguments on those costs and believe that it will be resolved at the Supreme Court level in South Carolina.
Got it. Thank you very much helpful color. Thank you.
Thank you and ladies and gentlemen that does conclude todays question and answer session I'd like to turn the conference back over to Lynn good for any additional or closing remarks.
Well. Thank you everyone. We appreciate your interest and investment in Duke energy or our IR team will be available. This afternoon as usual to answer any follow up questions and we look forward to seeing many of you in the weeks to come thanks, So much.
Thank you and with that that does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.