Here's What Could Move Affirm Stock With Fiscal Q4 Earnings Due

Affirm Holdings' upcoming fiscal Q4 earnings report will be closely watched for its 2026 guidance, specifically regarding the anticipated impact of Walmart shifting its BNPL business to Klarna and the implications of Affirm's increasing mix of lower-margin, zero-interest BNPL plans. While analysts project robust Q4 revenue and GMV growth, the magnitude of Walmart's effect on future gross merchandise volume and revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margins remains a key debate, though some analysts suggest broader merchant momentum and new product traction could mitigate these headwinds.

Analysis

Affirm Holdings' upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is set against a backdrop of significant strategic shifts, with investor focus squarely on the fiscal 2026 guidance rather than the immediate quarter's results. While Q4 is expected to show strong growth—with analysts forecasting a 27% revenue increase to $837 million and a 33% rise in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $9.61 billion—the forward-looking outlook contains two primary sources of uncertainty. The most significant is the waning partnership with Walmart, which has pivoted most of its buy now, pay later (BNPL) business to competitor Klarna, creating a widely anticipated headwind for Affirm's future GMV. Concurrently, Affirm's product mix is shifting toward zero-percent interest plans which, while attracting higher-credit consumers for larger purchases, exert pressure on revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margins. However, several factors may mitigate these concerns. Analysts contend that strong momentum from top partners like Shopify and Amazon.com could offset the Walmart pressure, and the new Affirm debit card, expected to generate $58 million in Q4, is gaining traction for in-store purchases. Furthermore, the market may be pricing in some conservatism, as analysts note Affirm's tendency to issue cautious initial guidance. The stock's technicals, including an IBD Composite Rating of 86 and a 'B' Accumulation/Distribution rating, suggest net institutional buying leading into this pivotal report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should scrutinize the fiscal 2026 guidance for a precise quantification of the GMV impact from the reduced Walmart partnership and the outlook for RLTC margins amidst the product mix shift.
• It is critical to weigh the well-telegraphed Walmart headwind against the potential for offsetting growth from major partners like Shopify and Amazon, and the adoption rate of new products such as the Affirm debit card.
• Given Affirm's history of issuing conservative initial forecasts, a 2026 GMV guide that appears below consensus may not warrant an immediate overreaction if underlying growth drivers, excluding Walmart, remain robust.
• The positive 'B' Accumulation/Distribution rating indicates institutional support, but the primary driver for the stock will be management's commentary on navigating partner concentration risk and margin evolution.