One in four US adults with diabetes used a GLP-1 drug last year, survey finds

A recent CDC report indicates that over 25% of U.S. adults with diabetes utilized injectable GLP-1 drugs, such as Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, last year, signaling significant market penetration for these high-demand treatments. This widespread adoption, with usage peaking at 33.3% among those aged 50-64 and 31.3% among Hispanic adults, underscores the substantial revenue generation potential for pharmaceutical companies despite ongoing criticism regarding the drugs' approximately $1,000 monthly list price.

Analysis

A recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report confirms significant market penetration for GLP-1 therapies, with over 25% of U.S. adults with diabetes utilizing these drugs last year. This demonstrates a robust and established demand base for key players Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Adoption is particularly strong among the 50-64 age cohort, at 33.3%, and Hispanic adults, at 31.3%, underscoring the drugs' effectiveness and appeal in high-burden populations. The data also reveals these treatments are being successfully integrated into existing care regimens, with roughly 31% of insulin users also taking a GLP-1, suggesting a role as a foundational therapy rather than a last resort. While the high list price of approximately $1,000 per month is noted as a point of criticism, the current adoption rates signal strong revenue streams. Furthermore, potential market expansion exists within under-penetrated demographics, such as Asian non-Hispanic adults (12.1% usage), and through ongoing trials for new medical conditions, which could further extend the growth runway for these blockbuster drugs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The confirmed high adoption rates for GLP-1 drugs for diabetes solidify the revenue growth thesis for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, supporting a bullish outlook on the core franchise.
• Investors should monitor for developments aimed at increasing penetration in identified lower-usage segments, such as the 65+ age group and Asian non-Hispanic populations, as success here represents a key avenue for incremental growth.
• The high monthly cost remains a significant risk factor; therefore, it is critical to watch for any increased pricing pressure from payers or regulators which could impact long-term margin profiles for both companies.
• Given that these drugs are being tested for other conditions, investors should pay close attention to clinical trial readouts, as approvals for new indications would significantly expand the total addressable market beyond diabetes and weight loss.