Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq steady after latest record-setting rally

US equities experienced a modest retreat on Thursday, with major indices pulling back from recent highs, though AI-driven optimism continued to propel Nvidia to a new record. The earnings season commenced positively with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines exceeding expectations, while silver surged past $50/oz for the first time in decades on safe-haven demand, even as gold's rally paused and oil prices dipped. Geopolitically, China's new rare earth export controls significantly boosted related mining stocks, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a 30% chance of a market correction, citing broader uncertainties.

Analysis

US equities experienced a broad retreat on Thursday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling between 0.1% and 0.6% from recent record highs, signaling a pause in the rally. This pullback occurred amidst rising long-term bond yields and a firming US dollar, while the ongoing federal government shutdown continued to delay key economic data releases, including jobless claims. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a 30% chance of a market correction, citing geopolitical uncertainties and fiscal spending concerns, which contrasts with the market's perceived 10% probability.

Despite the broader market retreat, AI-related stocks demonstrated continued strength, with Nvidia (NVDA) hitting an all-time intraday high, supported by a Cantor analyst's raised price target and US approval for chip exports to the UAE. Intel (INTC) also reversed losses after unveiling new chip technologies, crucial for its manufacturing business, though OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed preference for TSMC. The Q3 earnings season commenced positively, with PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) both surpassing profit and revenue expectations, leading to gains in their respective stocks and a broader uplift for airline carriers.

Commodity markets presented a mixed picture; gold's (GC=F) rally paused below $4,000 due to profit-taking, while silver (SI=F) surged over 3.8% to top $50/oz for the first time in decades, driven by safe-haven demand and the "debasement trade." Oil prices (BZ=F, CL=F) declined over 0.8% following news of a Middle East peace plan, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Concurrently, China's new export controls on rare earth minerals significantly boosted US-listed rare earth stocks like MP Materials (+10%), Lithium Americas (+7%), and Trilogy Metals (+5%), which have also seen recent US government investment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor macro indicators closely, particularly bond yields and the US dollar, as the government shutdown continues to obscure economic data.
• Evaluate AI sector exposure, considering both the strong growth trajectory of leaders like Nvidia and potential "bubble concerns" highlighted by market participants.
• Assess commodity allocations, noting the divergence between gold's pause and silver's significant rally, alongside the geopolitical impact on rare earth and oil markets.
• Review portfolio resilience against potential market corrections, as suggested by JPMorgan's CEO, and consider defensive positions or hedging strategies.