Mirriad plummets as trading update reveals revenues remain subdued

Mirriad warned that full-year 2025 revenue will be about £0.4m (approximately £200k generated in H2), down 73% from £1.5m in 2024, prompting a 29.5% share drop to 0.006p. The company reported cash of roughly £1.0m at 30 Nov 2025, expects c.£350k in tax credits soon, has cut its monthly cost base to about £220k after restructuring, and noted recent fundraising and a near-9% stake by Zeus Investment Management; a further trading update is due in early January.

Analysis

Market structure: Mirriad's collapse disproportionately benefits large, incumbent digital-ad players (Alphabet GOOGL, Meta META, The Trade Desk TTD) and broadcasters able to internalize or license virtual-placement tech, while small-cap adtech peers face financing and multiple compression. The market share shift is towards scale players with integrated supply-side/demand-side stacks; pricing power for bespoke virtual placement will compress unless scaleable CPMs >£50‑100 are proven. Cross-asset impact is muted — UK small‑cap equity volatility rises, possible upticks in single-stock CDS/OTC borrow costs for microcaps, but sovereign bonds, FX and commodities are unaffected materially.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are insolvency/delisting within 3–6 months given cash ~£1.0m (30 Nov) + expected £0.35m tax credit and monthly cash burn ~£220k (runway ≈ 5–6 months), a dilutive emergency raise, or an opportunistic acquisition. Hidden dependency: revenues concentrated in a handful of deals (e.g., MBC) — loss of a single partner collapses forward revenue. Near-term catalysts are the early‑Jan trading update and any announced financing; a contract >£3–5m or cash injection >£3m would materially de-risk the name.

Trade implications: Direct play is a small, tactical short in AIM:MIRI / OTCQX:MMDDF (illiquid) — size 0.15–0.5% NAV with tight event-driven stops; pair trade: short MIRI vs long TTD (or GOOGL) 1–3% NAV to capture sector consolidation over 6–12 months. Use options on liquid proxies: buy 9–12 month call spreads on TTD funded by selling 2–3 month calls to express upside with defined risk; reduce microcap adtech exposure by 2–4% and rotate into large-cap adtech/FAANG names.

Contrarian angles: The market likely prices near-total equity wipeout, potentially overdone if a strategic buyer (regional broadcaster or private equity) values IP + distribution synergy at >£3–5m; that scenario would re-rate shares >10x from current levels but has low probability. Historical parallels (small adtech bankruptcies vs rare rescue M&A) suggest odds favor loss of equity but keep an event-driven optionality sleeve — size positions to binary outcomes and monitor Jan update and any >£3m financing within 30–90 days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical short position in Mirriad (AIM:MIRI / OTCQX:MMDDF) sized 0.15–0.5% of NAV using OTC borrow where available; set hard cover if cash post-update >£3.0m, announced contracted revenue >£5.0m, or if share price rallies >200% on headline noise.
• Implement a pair trade: short MIRI (size above) and allocate 1–3% NAV long to The Trade Desk (TTD) or Alphabet (GOOGL) to capture consolidation in adtech over 6–12 months; rebalance if TTD/GOOGL outperform by >10% in 3 months.
• Buy a 9–12 month call spread on TTD equal to 0.5–1.0% NAV (buy longer-dated call, sell higher strike call) funded by selling 2–3 month calls to limit cash outlay and express recovery in programmatic ad demand.
• Reduce aggregate microcap adtech exposure by 2–4% of portfolio and reallocate that capital to large-cap digital advertising names (GOOGL, META, TTD) or a communication-services ETF (e.g., XLC) within 2 weeks to lower financing/dilution risk.
• Set event triggers and alerts for Mirriad: (a) early‑Jan trading update, (b) any announced financing >£3m or strategic M&A approach, (c) cash on hand <£500k or runway <3 months — if any trigger occurs, increase short to 0.5% NAV or cover depending on positive de-risking metrics.