iPhone 16 Tops List of World's Best-Selling Smartphones in 2025

Counterpoint Research reports the iPhone 16 was the best-selling smartphone globally in 2025, with Apple and Samsung devices taking seven and three spots respectively in the top 10 and combining for 19% of global smartphone sales. Apple’s iPhone 17 series delivered 16% higher sales in its first full quarter versus its predecessor—led by the base iPhone 17 with upgrades (120Hz, 256GB)—while the lower-cost iPhone 16e ($599) and continued iPhone 16 ($699) offerings supported broader volume. Samsung’s Galaxy A16 5G was the top Android model and the Galaxy S25 Ultra saw >3x YoY growth in Japan; Counterpoint expects premium flagships to gain share in 2026 as rising memory prices pressure entry-to-mid segments.

Analysis

Market structure: Apple (AAPL) and Samsung remain winners: premiumization (iPhone 17 base +120Hz/256GB) is restoring ASP power, supporting gross-margin resilience even if unit growth moderates. Memory suppliers (Micron MU, SK Hynix) are net beneficiaries as Counterpoint flags rising memory prices that disproportionately hit entry/mid tiers; mid-tier OEMs and white-box Android players are the clearest losers. Cross-asset: stronger premium demand supports AAPL equity and USD outperformance; rising memory prices lift semiconductor equities and commodity/industrial cyclicals, while higher consumer tech ASPs modestly compress discretionary credit spreads if consumer stress emerges.

Risk assessment: tail risks include regulatory actions (antitrust/repairability in EU/US), China consumption slowdown, and geopolitical shocks to supply chains (Taiwan/China) that could quickly reverse sales trends. Time horizons: immediate market moves in days-weeks to earnings/upgrade cycles; structural impact (premiumization, margin mix) plays out over quarters (2–8 quarters). Hidden dependencies: Apple’s services recurring revenue amplifies device wins; component lead times can create transient supply-driven outperformance. Key catalysts: AAPL next earnings (30–60 days), memory ASP reports (monthly), China retail data and Black Friday-like promotional windows.

Trade implications: favor concentrated, risk-managed exposure to AAPL and DRAM suppliers (MU) for 3–12 month holds; avoid or hedge mid-tier Android OEMs where memory pass-through compresses margins. Options: use defined-risk call spreads on AAPL 1–3 month around earnings and 9–12 month calls on MU to capture memory tailwind with limited downside. Sector rotation: overweight Tech Hardware & Semiconductors, underweight Consumer Electronics/mid-tier handset OEMs for next 6–12 months.

Contrarian angles: consensus underestimates cannibalization risk from Apple keeping iPhone 16 in-market and the second-order effect of larger base storage increasing component supply strain (benefitting memory suppliers short-term but risking longer-term commoditization). The market may be underpricing a scenario where premiumization plateaus if macro weakens—this would hit Apple’s upgrade cycle more than services revenue protects. Historical parallel: prior premium cycles (2017–2019) showed quick share reversion when macro turned; watch China sales and carrier subsidy reappearance as contrarian triggers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 3% long position in AAPL equity within 30 days (size relative to portfolio NAV), target +15% in 6–9 months, set stop loss at -8%; add 50% more size on any >5% intra-position pullback on improving China/US sell-through metrics.
• Initiate a 2% position in Micron (MU) via either equity or a 9–12 month call (≈20% OTM) to capture rising DRAM/NAND ASPs; target +25% in 6–12 months, stop loss -15% if monthly memory ASPs decline >5% sequentially.
• Enter a pair trade: long AAPL (notional 2%) and short Xiaomi (1810.HK) notional 2% for 3–6 months to express premiumization vs mid-tier squeeze; cover short if Xiaomi outperforms revenue guidance by >8% or if memory prices fall >10% MoM.
• Use defined-risk options around next AAPL print: buy a 1–3 month call spread (buy ATM, sell 10% OTM) sized 1% portfolio to capture upside while limiting IV risk; close into the print or within 2 trading days after the release.