Akobo Minerals – Operational Update for December 2025

Akobo Minerals reported December doré production of approximately 8 kg (~USD 1.0m) and Q4 2025 doré output of ~21.5 kg, bringing cumulative doré to ~73 kg and leaving ~600 tonnes of blended material with an estimated in-situ value of USD 1.6m. Operations at the Segele mine remained stable and the company has decided to accelerate vertical shaft development—38 m sunk to date with a planned continuous extension to ~120 m—expecting a production uplift from August/September 2026 to be funded from existing cash and operating cash flow, while noting improved revenues and EBITDA for the quarter. The move is supported by key technical partners and major shareholders and is presented as enhancing long-term mine flexibility and potential resource expansion (Inferred + Indicated resource: 69,000 oz at 22.7 g/t).

Analysis

Market structure: Akobo Minerals (Euronext Growth: AKOBO; OTC: AKOBF) is a niche, high-grade (~22.7 g/t) mini-producer where incremental operational improvements primarily reallocate near-term cash flows to the company rather than moving global gold supply. Winners: Akobo, contractors (Sutton/Monetary Metals), local suppliers; Losers: marginal artisanal producers if Akobo scales. The Q4 doré of ~21.5 kg and stockpiles (600 t ≈ USD 1.6m in situ) mean limited macro supply impact but positive idiosyncratic cashflow that reduces short-term financing risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a speculative long position in AKOBO (AKOBO / AKOBF) sized 2–3% of portfolio NAV ahead of the Aug–Sep 2026 production uplift window; set stop-loss at -30% unless company meets monthly shaft progress checkpoints (e.g., >50% of remaining sinking completed by May 2026).
• Implement a paired hedge: long AKOBO vs short 50–75% notional GDXJ to neutralize broad gold-price moves and isolate company-specific execution upside; rebalance monthly against operational updates.
• Buy a Jan 2027 call-spread on AKOBO (bullish vertical) sized to risk no more than 1% NAV premium, targeting >=30% upside by Sep 2026; close if shaft completion slips >3 months or if next quarterly doré <15 kg.
• Avoid increasing exposure >5% NAV until (a) vertical shaft reaches final depth with commissioning milestone, and (b) company posts two consecutive quarters of >20 kg doré production or publicly confirms no equity raise is needed within 12 months.
• Monitor 3 specific catalysts in next 90 days: monthly shaft sinking rate, Ministry of Mines cooperation statements, and operational cash balance disclosures; if two negative signals occur, reduce position by at least 50%.