Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk cuts 2025 sales growth, operating profit outlook

Novo Nordisk has lowered its 2025 full-year sales growth outlook to 8%-14% (from 13-21%) and operating profit growth to 10%-16% (from 16-24%) in local currencies, marking its second forecast cut. This revision is primarily attributed to weaker-than-expected growth for its key drugs, Wegovy in the U.S. obesity market and Ozempic in the U.S. GLP-1 diabetes market, underscoring ongoing challenges in its competitive positioning against rivals like Eli Lilly.

Analysis

Novo Nordisk has issued its second downward revision for its 2025 financial outlook, signaling significant headwinds for its flagship products. The company reduced its full-year 2025 sales growth forecast to a range of 8%-14% in local currencies, a substantial cut from the previous 13-21%. Similarly, the operating profit growth forecast was lowered to 10%-16% from a prior 16-24%. This downgrade is explicitly driven by deteriorating growth expectations for the second half of 2025, stemming from weakening performance of its key drugs: the weight-loss treatment Wegovy faces lower-than-anticipated growth in the U.S. and weaker penetration in select international markets, while the diabetes drug Ozempic is seeing slower growth in the U.S. GLP-1 market. This development underscores the intense competitive pressure from rival Eli Lilly and validates investor concerns that have contributed to a sharp decline in Novo's share price over the past year.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should re-evaluate their growth models for Novo Nordisk, as the second guidance cut points to a potentially sustained deceleration in its key revenue drivers.
• The specified weakness in Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic franchises in the U.S. market may signal a market share gain for competitor Eli Lilly, warranting a review of relative positioning between the two equities.
• The significant reduction in operating profit growth guidance, which is steeper than the sales growth cut, suggests potential margin pressure that should be factored into valuation models.
• Closely monitor upcoming quarterly reports for U.S. sales figures for Wegovy and Ozempic, as these will be critical indicators of whether the company can stabilize its growth trajectory within this new, lower guidance.