Peru's economy projected to grow nearly 3% in Q2 2025

Peru's central bank chief economist, Adrian Armas, projects the nation's economy to grow just under 3% in the second quarter of 2025, maintaining the 3.1% full-year expansion forecast. Recent economic performance saw May GDP growth between 2.4-2.6% and June exceeding 4%, though July's figures are expected to be negatively impacted by approximately 0.2% due to disruptions from informal miner protests blocking a key copper corridor.

Analysis

Peru's central bank maintains a stable outlook for the economy, projecting a 3.1% expansion for the full year 2025, with second-quarter growth anticipated to be just under 3%. This forecast is supported by a recent acceleration in economic activity, with estimated GDP growth increasing from a 2.4-2.6% range in May to over 4% in June. However, this positive trajectory faces near-term headwinds. Protests by informal miners, which led to the blockage of a key copper corridor, are expected to negatively impact July's growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points. This incident highlights a significant vulnerability for the Peruvian economy: its dependence on the mining sector and its susceptibility to disruptions from social and political unrest. While the overall sentiment is mildly positive based on the steady growth forecast, the low market impact score suggests these projections are largely aligned with current market expectations and do not represent a significant deviation from the consensus.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with exposure to Peruvian assets should closely monitor developments related to social unrest, particularly within the mining sector, as disruptions to key commodity exports like copper represent a primary risk to the country's economic growth.
• The stable full-year GDP forecast of 3.1% provides a solid anchor for valuation, but the month-to-month volatility, evidenced by the jump to over 4% growth in June followed by a protest-impacted July, suggests caution is warranted for short-term positions.
• Consider the central bank's commentary as a baseline for a neutral to cautiously optimistic stance on Peru, but be prepared to reassess positions if protests escalate or if further data indicates a more significant impact on the crucial commodities sector.