Which 25 US cities have the worst traffic? See this data firm's list.

INRIX's 2025 Global Traffic Scorecard shows U.S. congestion worsened materially: the typical driver lost 49 hours to traffic (up six hours vs. 2024), worth $894 per driver and costing the country $85 billion (an 11.3% increase). INRIX estimates drivers lost 4.7 billion hours nationwide (equivalent to ~2.2 million full-time jobs) using commute-time analysis to major employment centers and an FHWA-based hourly value of $18.42; Chicago ranked worst (112 hours, $2,063 per driver, $7.5 billion loss), with New York and Philadelphia also among the top three and Baltimore/Philadelphia posting the largest year-over-year increases (31%).

Analysis

Market structure: Rising congestion (U.S. drivers lost 49 hours on average, $85B nationally; Chicago 112 hours/$2,063 per driver) redistributes value toward congestion-mitigation and mobility platforms and away from time-sensitive real estate. Winners: toll operators, mobility aggregators, infra contractors and firms selling traffic-management software; losers: downtown office landlords, parking-constrained retail and low-margin local transit operators. Fuel demand and idling increase marginal gasoline demand (supportive for XOM/CVX short-term), but productivity losses (4.7B hours) are a mild drag on GDP growth prospects.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include rapid municipal adoption of congestion pricing (accelerates toll operator profits) or a faster-than-expected shift to permanent remote work (compounds office-REIT downside). Short-term (days–weeks) volatility is low; medium-term (3–12 months) catalysts are city budget cycles, infrastructure funding allocations and municipal pilot programs; long-term (2–5 years) threats are autonomous vehicles and large-scale transit investment which could materially compress ride-hailing margins. Hidden dependencies: platform economics hinge on driver supply elasticity and local regulation, while capex winners require awarded contracts (bid-to-win risk).

Trade implications: Favor mobility and infrastructure exposures with 6–18 month horizons: platform leaders with diversified revenue (UBER) and equipment suppliers (CAT) stand to benefit; office REITs (VNO, SLG) and brick-and-mortar downtown retail are prime shorts. Use directionally sized equity positions (1–3% portfolio) supplemented with limited-risk options to express views around municipal policy windows (next 30–90 days) and upcoming 12-month earnings cycles.

Contrarian angles: Market underweights congestion-pricing beneficiaries (toll operators, traffic software vendors, fleet telematics like TRMB) and overweights speculative EV charging plays that don’t solve curb congestion. The consensus risk is timing — congestion data is rising now, so policy and capex follow; mispricing exists in office REITs that assume quick office reversion. Unintended consequences: aggressive pricing or fines could accelerate ride-hailing regulation or incentivize micromobility expansion, creating both upside and downside for different mobility sub-sectors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Uber Technologies (UBER) within 30 days to capture pricing and share gains from modal shift; hedge with a 10% OTM 6–9 month put for downside protection; target 15–25% upside over 12 months, stop-loss at -15%.
• Initiate 1–2% short exposure to office REITs split between Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) and SL Green (SLG) via 6–12 month puts (buy puts ~5–10% OTM) sized to equal 1–2% portfolio delta; add if city congestion metrics rise >10% YoY or office occupancy surveys remain <50% in the next 6 months.
• Buy a limited-risk call spread on Caterpillar (CAT) (9–12 month, BUY 1.5% notional via call spread) to play increased infrastructure/roadworks spending; add full exposure within 60 days if federal or state capex allocations exceed consensus by >$10B in announced projects.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long UBER 2% vs short Lyft (LYFT) 1% to express scale/delivery advantage; prefer buying 3–6 month UBER calls and 3–6 month LYFT puts to cap capital, review after 90 days or following municipal congestion-pricing announcements (monitor next 30–60 days).