Soybeans Rallying Back on Monday Morning

Soybean futures rebounded Monday with 5–14¢ gains after a sharp Friday sell-off (nearbys down 17–22¼¢) while January still posted a 7½¢ weekly gain as November expired; preliminary open interest rose 14,755 contracts Friday, signaling fresh selling interest. USDA backlog data showed 1.348 MMT of previously unreported large sales (332,000 MT to China, 616,000 MT to unknown destinations) and a 237,500 MT soybean meal sale to the Philippines, and President Trump said China is buying U.S. beans with purchases expected to pick up before spring. USDA Crop Production trimmed U.S. soybean yield 0.5 bpa to 53 bpa, lowering production by 48 mbu to 4.253 bbu and reducing combined supply by 61 mbu to 2.59 bbu, with 2024/25 carryover and ending stocks also revised lower; world ending stocks fell about 2 MMT to 121.99 MMT. Traders are awaiting NOPA crush and oil stocks data for October (consensus crush ~209.5 mbu; oil stocks ~1.257 billion lbs), and Brazil’s crop is lagging planting at 71% vs. 80% a year ago — a mix of factors that points to tighter fundamentals and upside price support amid near-term volatility.

Analysis

Soybean futures rebounded Monday with 5 to 14¢ intraday gains following a sharp Friday sell-off when nearby contracts fell 17 to 22.25¢; January still posted a 7.5¢ weekly gain as November expired. Preliminary open interest rose 14,755 contracts on Friday, signaling fresh selling interest, while the cmdtyView national cash bean price was $10.50¼, down 22.75¢; Nov25 settled $11.12¾ (-19.25¢), Jan26 $11.24½ (-22.5¢) but was showing a small bounce, and Mar26 settled $11.36 (-20.75¢) and was also trading higher intraday.

USDA Crop Production trimmed U.S. soybean yield by 0.5 bpa to 53 bpa, reducing production by 48 mbu to 4.253 bbu and cutting combined supply by 61 mbu to 2.59 bbu; 2024/25 carryover fell 14 mbu to 316 mbu and ending stocks were lowered 10 mbu to 290 mbu after a 50 mbu exports reduction. USDA’s backlog disclosure showed 1.348 MMT of previously unreported large sales (332k MT to China, 616k MT to unknown destinations) and 237.5k MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, while world ending stocks were trimmed ~2 MMT to 121.99 MMT.

Near-term catalysts are mixed and heighten volatility: traders await NOPA October crush and soybean oil stocks (consensus crush ~209.52 mbu; oil stocks ~1.257 billion lbs versus 1.243 billion lbs prior), Brazil planting is 71% versus 80% a year ago, and political commentary indicates China is buying U.S. beans with purchases expected to pick up before spring. The combination of smaller U.S. supplies and reported Chinese demand supports upside, but rising open interest, unfilled sales to unknown destinations and pending crush/oil data are credible downside/volatility risks that merit active risk management.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modest long exposure or options strategies to capture upside supported by lower U.S. production and reduced global stocks, sized to tolerate short-term volatility
• Monitor NOPA crush and soybean oil stocks on release and be prepared to trim longs or hedge with puts if crush comes in above expectations or oil stocks rise materially
• Use open interest and nearby cash basis as tactical signals—rising OI and weaker cash suggest liquidation pressure, so layer hedges or reduce size on sustained selling
• Track Brazil planting progress and confirmed Chinese purchase shipments; further planting delays or firm export confirmations would justify increasing exposure, while lack of follow-through from reported sales argues for caution