Truecaller announces preliminary numbers for the fourth quarter 2025

Truecaller reported preliminary Q4 2025 results showing ad revenues of SEK 255.2m (down 31% reported, -22% in constant currency) and total net sales of SEK 450.9m (down 14% reported, -1% cc), while recurring revenues rose to SEK 193.7m (+51%) driven by Premium (SEK 106.0m, +53% cc) and Truecaller for Business (SEK 87.7m, +48% cc). EBITDA fell to SEK 103m (22.8% margin) with an adjusted EBITDA of SEK 126m (≈30.3% margin) after one-off items including SEK 30m higher incentive costs and a SEK 28m gross/net ads accounting adjustment; average non-iOS MAU grew to 454.2m and cash plus short-term investments stood at ~SEK 1bn. Management flagged an unresolved issue with a major ad demand partner, ongoing cost-savings expected to yield ~SEK 90m annualized, and reiterated a strategic shift toward recurring consumer and enterprise revenues; final audited results will be published 17 February 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: Truecaller (TRUE B) is shifting from an ads-dominated model toward recurring consumer subscriptions and enterprise products; recurring revenues +51% YoY and MAU +14% show demand resilience even as ad revenues fell ~22% in constant currency. Short-term winners are enterprise messaging/fraud-prevention vendors and reseller partners in LATAM/Middle East; losers include ad-demand partners and adtech intermediaries that concentrated spend/product exposure. The combination of 1bn SEK cash and ongoing buybacks caps downside vs peers but pricing power in ad markets is weakened until the partner issue is resolved.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are a prolonged breakdown with the largest demand partner (extended ad rev hit >30% YoY for multiple quarters), adverse privacy/regulatory action in India/EMs, or a material mis-audit when final numbers are released on Feb 17; these could compress EBITDA margin below 20% and force higher capex or dilutive raises. Immediate (days) risk is headline-driven volatility into the Feb 17 report; short-term (weeks/months) risk centers on partner negotiations and Q1 ad trends; long-term (quarters/years) upside depends on converting MAU into sustainable ARPU via premium and B2B. Hidden dependency: single demand partner concentration and reseller accounting changes that obscure gross/net dynamics.

Trade implications: Tactical: initiate a modest 2–3% long position in TRUE B (Nasdaq Stockholm: TRUE B) to capture asymmetric upside from recurring revenue growth, hedge with 3–6 month OTM puts (15% strike below entry) sized 50–70% of the equity position. Relative-value: pair trade long TRUE B vs short ad-reliant consumer ad names (e.g., SNAP or PINS) sized 1:1 to express idiosyncratic ad-monetization recovery; options: buy a 6–12 month call spread (bull call spread) to limit premium paid and target 25–40% upside. Entry: deploy on any >8–12% pullback or before Feb 17 if willing to accept event risk; cut exposure if adjusted EBITDA-margin ex-incentives falls below 25% or cash drops under 800m SEK.

Contrarian angles: Market may over-penalize TRUE B for transient ad-partner churn while under-appreciating 51% recurring revenue growth and MAU scale (454m non-iOS users) that support higher LTV and multiple expansion once ad concentration reduces. Historical parallel: platforms that diversified from ads to subscriptions/enterprise (e.g., LinkedIn monetization shift) saw 12–24 month re-rates; if Truecaller delivers steady quarter-over-quarter recurring revenue growth >25% and resolve partner issues within 3–6 months, the share could outperform materially. Conversely, the obvious recovery trade fails if partner negotiation drags >6 months or data/privacy regulation curtails targeted monetization.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Truecaller (TRUE B) on a confirmed close or intraday dip >8% from current levels; hedge with 3–6 month puts struck ~15% below entry sized at 50–70% of the equity notional to limit downside while retaining upside exposure.
• Implement a pair trade: long TRUE B vs short SNAP (1:1 notional) sized to represent 1–2% net portfolio risk; rationale: TRUE B has rising recurring revenue and MAU scale while SNAP is highly ad-dependent and sensitive to ad demand shocks.
• Buy a 6–12 month bull call spread on TRUE B (buy one ~ATM call, sell one 25–35% OTM call) to express a recovery view with defined risk; enter on a post-Feb 17 positive audit or any sign of partner-revenue normalization (target: 25–40% upside).
• Reduce or close positions if: (a) adjusted EBITDA-margin ex-incentives falls below 25% on subsequent reporting, (b) cash & short-term investments decline below 800m SEK, or (c) company discloses unresolved partner revenue risk extending beyond 6 months — these are hard stop-loss triggers.