Roughly half say holiday gifts harder to afford: Survey

A Dec. 4-8 AP-NORC poll of 1,146 U.S. adults (±4 points) found roughly half of Americans say holiday gifts are harder to afford and 63% report paying higher prices for gifts this season; respondents also overwhelmingly cited rising costs for groceries (87%), electricity (69%) and gas (49%). A majority (68%) judged the national economy “poor,” and a separate AP poll showed just 31% approval for President Trump’s handling of the economy, pressures that have dented his ratings and are being seized on by Democrats as a 2026 campaign issue. The results underscore persistent consumer inflation pain and its potential political ramifications heading into the midterms.

Analysis

An AP-NORC poll conducted Dec. 4-8 among 1,146 U.S. adults (±4 points) found 63% of respondents say they are paying higher prices for holiday gifts this season, a six-point improvement from 2022, while 49% report higher gas costs, 69% report higher electricity costs and 87% report higher grocery prices. Roughly half of Americans say holiday gifts are harder to afford and a majority (68%) rate the national economy as "poor," indicating persistent consumer inflation pain despite modest easing versus last year.

The survey cites direct behavioral responses — e.g., use of credit programs to afford gifts — that signal pressured discretionary spending and elevated reliance on consumer credit during the holiday period, which can compress margins and revenue for higher-ticket retailers. The moderately negative sentiment signal (−0.45) and market impact score of 0.35 from the data suggest this is likely to be a sector-specific headwind rather than a broad-market shock.

Political dynamics amplify economic risk: a separate AP poll shows 31% approval of the president’s handling of the economy and Democrats are emphasizing affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms, creating potential for policy- or sentiment-driven volatility in consumer-exposed equities. Investors should therefore treat near-term retail and consumer data as key drivers of earnings revisions and positioning decisions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce exposure to high-end discretionary retailers dependent on holiday gift spending and consider rotating into consumer staples and discount grocers that benefit from price-sensitive shoppers
• Monitor weekly retail sales, same-store-sales, and consumer credit indicators (credit-card balances and delinquencies) as leading signals of holiday spending stress
• Watch gas and electricity price trends closely since higher household energy costs (49% and 69% reporting increases) will further constrain disposable income and favor essentials over discretionary names
• Factor political/policy risk into position sizing—track polling and affordability narratives ahead of 2026 for potential short-term volatility in consumer-facing sectors