Buy These 3 AI Infrastructure Stocks Before the Next Leg Up

Dell recorded $64.0B in AI orders last year and a $43.0B backlog, with servers driving double-digit revenue growth and a forward P/E of 13.5x vs. analyst 17% annualized EPS growth estimates. Nebius reported AI cloud revenue up 830% YoY (and +63% QoQ), expanded active power capacity 10x, and faces EBITDA estimates rising from $1.3B in 2026 to >$10B by 2028 while trading at ~21x this year's EBITDA. Vertiv posted 26% organic sales growth to >$10B, orders +81% and a $15B backlog, guiding ~28% organic sales growth and ~43% adj. EPS growth for 2026, trading at ~41x this year's consensus P/E with ~31% annualized EPS growth expected.

Analysis

The market prices here look like a near-term growth story priced for execution perfection. Hardware vendors with assembly and services capabilities (software-driven installation, commissioning, and contracted maintenance) will likely convert backlog into higher margin recurring revenue, but that conversion is nonlinear — expect revenue recognition lags of quarters and margin mix shifts as services replace pure-box sales.

A second-order winner is anything that de-risks power and site-delivery for hyperscalers: longer lead times for GPUs and constrained grid connections raise the value of firms that can guarantee turnkey power/cooling and shovel-ready sites. Conversely, capital-light cloud operators that resell compute without control over physical power contracts are exposed to rapidly rising contracted power prices and project slippage, which can blow up EBITDA assumptions even if headline demand remains strong.

Tail risks center on two levers: (1) upstream GPU supply shocks or export-controls that compress OEM throughput and rerate growth forecasts, and (2) a demand plateau when customers shift from procurement to optimization (software and model efficiency), which would reveal inventories and force price competition. Time horizons matter — the next 3–9 months are execution and supply-cycle driven, while 12–36 months hinge on whether higher compute density becomes durable structural spend or a temporary build cycle.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long DELL (12–18 months): accumulate on any 10–20% pullback. Prefer capital-efficient exposure via buy-write or vertical call spreads (LEAP buy + nearer-term call sell) to monetize time decay; reward: asymmetric upside if backlog converts and services scale; risk: execution/recognition misses. Hard stop at a single-quarter EPS miss or guidance cut that implies order cancellations.
• Long VRT (12–24 months): buy in tranches to average into volatility; catalysts are higher-rack-density deployments and large contracted power projects. Use out-of-the-money Jan 2028 calls to capture convexity if you want leverage, or buy the stock with a 25% trailing stop. Risk: valuation compression if AI spend peaks; hedge with a small tech-cap ETF short.
• Short NBIS via limited-risk put spread (6–18 months): balance high top-line growth assumptions against capital intensity and power procurement risk. Structure as buy put strike A / sell lower strike B to limit downside while capturing a re-rating if EBITDA misses; target 2–4x return if contracts roll down or power costs rise materially. Monitor monthly power procurement disclosures and site build timelines as stop triggers.
• Pair trade — Long DELL / Short NBIS (6–12 months): captures hardware/system integrator execution premium versus capital-intensive cloud operator. Position size to be delta-neutral to macro; this isolates execution and power-contract risk. Unwind if NBIS reveals secured long-term PPAs or DELL reports significant order cancellations.