Billionaire Bill Ackman May Be the Next Warren Buffett -- 2 AI Stocks Make Up 39% of His Portfolio (Hint: One Just Partnered With Nvidia)

Bill Ackman is positioning Howard Hughes Holdings as a 'modern Berkshire' with 39% of Pershing Square's Q3 portfolio concentrated in two AI-exposed names: 19% in Alphabet and 20% in Uber. Alphabet is leveraging AI across Search and Cloud with TPUs and the Gemini family, and street estimates expect EPS growth of ~16% annually over the next three years at a ~32x multiple; Google Cloud revenue has accelerated. Uber, the largest global rideshare and delivery platform, is monetizing consumer data and pursuing autonomous-vehicle partnerships (Waymo, WeRide, Nvidia) with a 100,000-robotaxi ambition by 2027; analysts forecast ~31% annual earnings growth and an ~11x earnings multiple. The piece frames both stocks as attractive growth opportunities supported by AI adoption and strategic partnerships, relevant for allocators weighing concentrated, conviction positions.

Analysis

Market structure: The immediate winners are Alphabet (GOOGL) and platform-native cloud/AI infrastructure suppliers (NVDA, Google Cloud/TPUs) and marketplaces that can monetize multi-service apps (UBER). Losers are ad-dependent pure-plays and smaller clouds that lack custom silicon — expect 5–15% reallocation of incremental ad dollars toward AI-enabled search/cloud over 12–24 months, shifting pricing power to firms owning both models and distribution.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an antitrust break-up or heavy fines against Alphabet, a high-profile AV safety incident that delays commercialization, or a chip supply shock that raises AI infra costs; each could produce 20–40% downside to affected names. Near-term (days–weeks) risk is sentiment/earnings; medium-term (3–12 months) hinges on Cloud AI revenue cadence; long-term (2–5 years) on AV monetization and ad query resilience.

Trade implications: Construct directional and relative-value exposure: long GOOGL for infra + ad resilience and long UBER for network effects/AV optionality, but size positions to reflect execution risk (smaller for GOOGL at rich 32x forward PE). Use options to express convexity (12–24 month LEAP calls on UBER; hedged call-spreads on GOOGL) and rotate into AI infra stocks on pullbacks of 8–15%.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates two risks — generative-AI reducing raw search query volumes and AV commercialization slipping past 2027 expectations; these could compress multiples (GOOGL -20% from current level if queries fall 10–15%; UBER earnings could miss by >30% if robotaxi rollout lags). Also watch for commoditization of chips (TPU externalization) which would paradoxically pressure cloud margins despite broader AI adoption.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider establishing a 2–3% long position in GOOGL with a 12–18 month horizon; add on a >10% pullback or if forward P/E falls to ≤28. Hedge with a 6–12 month 15–20% OTM put sized at ~0.5% portfolio risk to limit a regulatory/ad-demand shock.
• Establish a 3–4% long position in UBER for 18–36 months targeting AV optionality and ad growth; express convex upside with 12–24 month ATM LEAP calls (buy) or buy-call/short-call spreads to cap cost. Add to position if forward P/E drops to ≤10 or after 1Q/2Q sequential revenue beats.
• Execute a pair trade: long GOOGL (2%) vs short META (2%) to capture AI infra moat and potential ad-share reallocation; close if META outperforms GOOGL by +10% trailing 3 months or if GOOGL Cloud AI growth underperforms by >5% QoQ over two consecutive quarters.
• Monitor three actionable catalysts over the next 90–180 days and act within 5 trading days: (1) Google Cloud AI revenue growth (target >10% QoQ accelerating), (2) FTC/DOJ filings or major antitrust developments (reduce GOOGL by 50% on formal action), (3) Waymo/WeRide/AV partner deployment milestones (if robotaxi revenue timelines slip >12 months, trim UBER by 30%).