Are Americans interested in EVs and hybrids as their next car in 2026?

32% of Americans say they would seriously consider an electric vehicle as their next car versus 44% for hybrids; 53% say they are not too or not at all likely to consider an EV and 15% do not expect to purchase a vehicle. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to consider an EV (47% vs. 17%), but EV interest is down from 42% in 2022. Among current owners, 61% of EV owners would consider another EV and 76% of hybrid owners would stick with a hybrid. Policy sentiment: 40% say the federal government should encourage EV use, 45% neither encourage nor discourage and 14% say discourage; federal tax credits expired Sept. 30, 2025 — survey conducted Mar. 16-22, 2026 amid higher gas prices during the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Analysis

Consumer preference tilt toward hybrids and the recent spike in energy-price volatility create a bifurcated demand path: hybrids act as a durable margin-preserving bridge for legacy OEMs while full-EV manufacturers face a longer, more incentive-dependent adoption curve. This implies a reallocation of dealer inventories and residual-value risk from pure EVs into hybrids and late-model ICEs, compressing used-EV prices and elevating the financed/lease return risk for high-capex EV entrants over the next 6–18 months.

On the supply side, an uneven pull on battery raw materials is likely — lower incremental EV penetration reduces near-term lithium/cathode demand growth but hybrid electrification still sustains a base-level demand increase for lower-capacity battery formats and power electronics. Expect margin pressure for upstream battery miners and OEM battery JV pricing resets, while Tier-1 suppliers of 48V and hybrid systems (power electronics, e-motors) will see steadier orderbooks and better negotiated pricing.

Policy and political risk now dominate the catalyst calendar: without a clear, time-bound restoration of consumer incentives or charging subsidies, OEMs will lean on price incentives and lease structures to move EV units, lengthening payback horizons for capex investors in charging and early-stage EV OEMs. In short timeframes (days–weeks) energy-price moves set directional order flow; in months the primary drivers will be dealer inventory, residual value realization, and any policy reversals tied to election cycles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long Toyota Motor (TM) equity or 12-month call spread — thesis: durable hybrid franchise and lower capex per unit versus full-EV peers. Entry: initiate on a <=3% pullback or now; target +15–25% in 9–15 months, stop-loss -10%. Rationale: capture margin resilience and higher ASP mix from hybrids with limited downside vs pure EV exposure.
• Pair trade: Long Exxon Mobil (XOM) 3–9 months / Short Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID) 3–9 months — hedge energy upside vs discretionary EV demand risk. Size short at 0.6–0.8x of energy long notional. Trigger: sustained retail gasoline >$4.25/gal for 10 trading days; expected payoff: XOM +8–18%, RIVN/LCID -30–60% if dealer incentives and inventories re-emerge.
• Long used-car/wholesale exposure (KAR) 6–12 months — buy shares or call spread to play stronger used-hybrid residuals and trade-in flows. Entry: on weakness in broad markets or auto sales downtick; target +20% with downside -12%. Hedge: pair with short pure-EV OEM exposure to limit cyclication risk.
• Event-speculative: buy EV charging operator one-year call spreads (eg EVGO) sized as small asymmetric bet — catalyst is any federal/state incentive reinstatement or accelerated infrastructure grants. Limit allocation to 1–3% of risk budget; payoff scenario 3:1 if policy arrives, otherwise premium loss capped by spread structure.