Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise, Dow wavers as Wall Street awaits Nvidia earnings, bitcoin resumes sell-off

U.S. stocks ticked higher Wednesday — the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up modestly while the Dow hovered near flat — as markets awaited Nvidia’s after‑hours Q3 report, which analysts say could swing NVDA about 7% and prove a litmus test for the AI-driven S&P rally; bitcoin resumed a sell‑off below $90,000. Investor unease over Big Tech’s heavy AI spending (and signs Amazon may be borrowing to fund it) amid a Fed that looks less likely to cut soon has pressured the sector, even as Alphabet and Broadcom jumped over 5% and Nvidia, Tesla and other names showed gains. Near‑term market direction will hinge on Fed minutes and a critical September jobs report (made more important by the cancellation of October’s release and the delay of November’s), while corporate premarket movers included Lowe’s (beat sales, trimmed guidance), DoorDash/Kroger partnership news and continued volatility in MP Materials.

Analysis

U.S. equities moved mostly higher as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s third-quarter report due after Wednesday’s close; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each rose about 0.2% while the Dow hovered near flat, and the Nasdaq earlier spiked as much as 1.4% intra‑day. Market participants expect Nvidia’s print to move the stock roughly 7% in either direction, and the company’s results are framed as a potential make‑or‑break moment for this year’s AI-driven S&P 500 rally.

Investor concern over Big Tech’s heavy AI spending and signs Amazon may be borrowing to fund its buildout has pressured the sector, contributing to multiday declines and prompting at least one downgrade of Amazon and Microsoft to Neutral; Alphabet and Broadcom outperformed, each gaining over 5% in the session. Bitcoin resumed a sell‑off below $90,000 to levels not seen since April, signaling risk‑asset differentiation.

Macro catalysts add near‑term uncertainty: Fed minutes and a crucial September jobs report (made more important by the canceled October jobs release and the November report delay to Dec. 16) could shift the market’s split view on a December rate cut. On the corporate front, Lowe’s beat sales but cut full‑year profit guidance, DoorDash/Kroger expanded their tie‑up, and MP Materials remained volatile amid unresolved U.S.–China rare‑earth export details.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce headline long exposure into Nvidia earnings or hedge delta risk given the market’s expectation that NVDA can move about ±7% and its results could reset the AI rally
• Monitor Fed minutes and the September jobs report closely and position portfolio duration and tech exposure for potential upward pressure on yields if data or minutes reduce the odds of a December cut
• Trim or hedge crypto exposure after bitcoin’s renewed sell‑off below $90,000, and avoid treating crypto and AI‑tech risk as fully correlated in the near term
• Favor selective winners with clear momentum (e.g., Alphabet, Broadcom) while being cautious on names showing funding or guidance stress (Amazon, Microsoft, Lowe’s), and keep position sizes smaller for geopolitically sensitive plays like MP Materials until export‑deal details are confirmed