lastminute.com N.V. (LSMNF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue rose 15% to EUR 361m, exceeding guidance. Gross travel value grew 19% and gross profit improved 10% despite higher marketing spend; adjusted EBITDA accelerated 33% (EUR figure not provided in the transcript). The company released audited FY2025 results and published its Annual Report and Sustainability Report.

Analysis

Lastminute.com's results should be read less as a standalone travel rebound and more as evidence the company is starting to convert discretionary marketing into durable margin expansion — a classic operating-leverage inflection that, if sustained across booking cycles, supports a meaningful multiple re-rating versus peer OTAs. The key mechanism is unit-economics improvement: lower incremental CAC and higher contribution margin on incremental bookings can fund continued growth without linear rises in cash burn, giving the stock optionality into peak European summer demand.

Second-order winners include European leisure suppliers and channel partners: hotels and short-stay owners in Mediterranean markets will see revenue tailwinds and improved yield management, while metasearch/advertising platforms (Google/Facebook) capture higher ad spend but also become choke-points — any tightening there creates short-term cost pressure for OTAs. Conversely, global OTAs with heavier corporate/travel-agency exposure may underperform if leisure-specialists take share in price-sensitive segments.

Principal near-term risks are macro-driven: a visible slowdown in consumer discretionary spend or rapid increases in airline/hotel capacity costs (fuel, wages) could reverse margin momentum within 1–3 quarters. Operational risks include platform conversion deterioration if marketing mix shifts too fast toward paid channels rather than direct loyalty activation. Watch booking cadence into early summer and any guidance on marketing ROI per channel as the primary catalysts that will validate or invalidate the re-rating.

The consensus underweights lastminute.com's asymmetry: investors price it as a cyclical leisure play rather than a nascent high-ROIC growth engine. That makes a targeted exposure attractive now, but only while marketing efficiency and net retention metrics continue to improve over the next 2–3 quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long LSMNF (lastminute.com N.V.) equity — tactical 2–4% position sized for a 3–12 month horizon. Rationale: capture multiple re‑rating if marketing-driven unit economics continue to improve; target +60–100% upside vs ~30% stop-loss. Trim into June booking cadence if outperformance materializes.
• Pairs trade: Long LSMNF / Short BKNG (Booking Holdings) — equal notional, 3–9 month horizon. Rationale: isolate OTA leisure re-rating vs secular global OTA exposure; expect LSMNF to outperform on European leisure rebound and margin gearing. Risk: BKNG downside in macro shock; cap pair size to 1–2% portfolio.
• Long RYAAY (Ryanair) or IAG (European carriers) — 3–6 month trade sized 1–2% to play supplier leverage. Rationale: airlines will benefit from higher advance bookings and improved yield; use puts (3–6 month) as hedge against fuel shocks. Target asymmetrical 2:1 reward:risk if summer bookings hold.
• Short EXPE (Expedia) via buying 3–6 month OTM puts — small position (0.5–1%). Rationale: Expedia has higher mix risk and more exposure to paid distribution; margin compression from rising ad costs or weaker ROI could surface later in year. Use options to cap downside and keep explicit risk/reward.