The Zacks Analyst Blog Joby Aviation, Uber and Archer Aviation

Joby Aviation has partnered with Metropolis Technologies to develop 25 vertiports across the U.S., integrating Metropolis’ AI-based recognition and baggage services (leveraging Metropolis’ recent $1.5bn SP+ acquisition and $1.6bn Series D) across a network of ~4,200 parking locations and 350+ sites to support near-term commercial eVTOL operations and Blade-derived urban air mobility services that Uber plans to host in its app by 2026. Rival Archer is advancing a Miami air-taxi network and a technology partnership with Karem Aircraft for tiltrotor capabilities, underscoring competitive network and tech development in the sector. Financially, Joby shares have risen double-digits over six months but trade at a premium with a Zacks Value Score of F, a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and widening consensus loss estimates for late 2025–2026, signaling operational progress but continued near-term losses.

Analysis

Market structure: Metropolis’s 25-vertiport rollout materially raises non-aircraft moats — parking, baggage, recognition tech — so immediate winners are JOBY (network access), Metropolis/SP+ owners, and UBER (distribution). Incumbent short-haul ground operators and legacy regional carriers face isolated revenue pressure in dense corridors (NYC–EWR/JFK) but broad airline demand is unchanged. Expect elevated equity volatility for eVTOL names (JOBY/ACHR) vs. S&P; short-term option-implied vol for these tickers is likely to trade 30–50% above market given binary certification risks.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are (1) FAA certification/regulatory delays into 2026–2028, (2) a high-visibility operational incident that could halt rollouts, and (3) financing stress if capex > $1B before commercial cash flow. Immediate (days) effect = sentiment moves; short-term (3–12 months) = partnership execution and Uber app integration; long-term (2–5 years) = unit economics and network density. Hidden dependencies include airport/municipal slot access, insurance pricing, and battery lifecycle supply chains.

Trade implications: Construct small, staged exposures: tactical 2–3% long in JOBY equities or 12–18 month LEAP call spreads to capture 2026 commercialization, funded by 1% short position in ACHR (higher dilution/tech risk). Add 1.5–2% long UBER equity to play distribution upside ahead of 2026 app integration, trimming on a 15–20% rally. Use calendar spreads or verticals to limit premium if implied vol >40%.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underweights the vertiport/operator SaaS revenue — Metropolis could monetize recurring fees that compress aircraft payback periods, benefiting asset-light players more than OEMs. The market may be overpaying for pure-play OEM optionality (JOBY/ACHR) while underpricing UBER/Metropolis exposure; consider selling short-dated calls on JOBY after 10–20% rip and reallocating proceeds into UBER or Metropolis-linked private/ETF exposures.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a phased 2–3% long position in JOBY (JOBY) via 12–18 month call spreads (buy 1.5x–2.0x OTM LEAP, sell nearer-term OTM calls) with tranche entries on pullbacks of 10%+ or on FAA milestone announcements; cap downside via spreads to limit premium.
• Initiate a 1.5–2% long position in UBER (UBER) equity to capture distribution upside from Blade integration, take profits on a 15–20% move, and add a 0.5% hedge with 6–12 month puts if UBER’s share price drops 15%+ after integration misses.
• Short 1% of ACHR (ACHR) common shares as a volatility/valuation arbitrage; size to 0.5–1% and cover if ACHR achieves certified flight milestones or raises >$300M non-dilutive financing.
• If JOBY implied volatility >40%, sell short-dated covered calls (4–8 week) after establishing core long to monetize elevated vol; otherwise buy protection (6–12 month puts) if a regulatory delay is announced within 90 days.
• Reduce direct exposure to small-cap eVTOL pure plays by 30–50% in multi-asset portfolios and reallocate into mobility infrastructure/ops (Metropolis/SP+ exposure via private deals or parking/ops REITs) to capture recurring-fee upside over 2–4 years.