Century Aluminum stock hits 52-week high at 28.44 USD

Century Aluminum (CENX) recently achieved a 52-week high of $28.44, reflecting a 75.79% stock increase over the past year. The company reported mixed Q2 2025 earnings, with EPS missing forecasts at $0.30 but revenue exceeding expectations at $628.1 million, though EBITDA of $74 million fell short due to higher power prices. Despite the earnings miss, BMO Capital raised its price target to $26.00 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing the restart of operations at the Mt. Holly plant as a key factor.

Analysis

Century Aluminum (CENX) has demonstrated significant market momentum, reaching a 52-week high of $28.44 on the back of a 75.79% stock price increase over the past year. This rally is underpinned by strong top-line performance, including 15.38% annual revenue growth. However, the company's most recent Q2 2025 earnings present a mixed financial picture. While revenue of $628.1 million surpassed consensus estimates by 3.62%, profitability fell short, with EPS of $0.30 missing the $0.42 forecast. Similarly, EBITDA of $74 million was below both company guidance and the $78 million consensus, a shortfall explicitly attributed to the adverse impact of higher power prices. Despite this earnings miss, sentiment remains supported by a key operational catalyst: the restart of the Mt. Holly plant. This development prompted BMO Capital to reiterate its Outperform rating and increase its price target from $21.00 to $26.00, suggesting that analysts are weighing future production capacity more heavily than recent margin compression.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the positive forward-looking catalyst of the Mt. Holly plant restart, which underpins the BMO Capital upgrade, against the demonstrated vulnerability to volatile energy costs that led to the recent EPS and EBITDA miss.
• Given the stock is trading at a 52-week high following a 75.79% run-up, it may be prudent for investors to monitor the impact of power prices on future quarterly margins before initiating or adding to a position.
• The conflicting signals of a revenue beat and an earnings miss suggest a hold strategy may be appropriate, allowing investors to assess whether the increased production from Mt. Holly can successfully offset the margin pressures observed in the latest quarter.