Jim Cramer looks at Apple's soaring stock as T-Mobile sees record iPhone sales

T-Mobile reported record iPhone sales, marking its biggest iPhone week with double-digit growth year-over-year, and noted that 75% of these sales were higher-margin Pro/Pro Max models, signaling robust demand and a potential increase in Apple's average selling price. This strong performance, attributed to the new models' fresh design, led Wedbush to raise its Apple price target to a Street-high $310, anticipating a 20% production increase for iPhone 17 and Pro models. Consequently, Apple shares climbed over 4%, erasing year-to-date losses and approaching previous record highs, underscoring renewed investor confidence despite earlier mixed analyst sentiment.

Analysis

Strong initial sales data from T-Mobile indicates a robust start for Apple's latest iPhone upgrade cycle, potentially exceeding initial market expectations. T-Mobile reported its 'biggest iPhone week' ever with double-digit year-over-year growth, providing a significant positive data point. Critically, 75% of these sales were for the higher-priced iPhone Pro and Pro Max models, which directly supports the thesis of an increasing average selling price (ASP) for Apple this quarter. This momentum is further corroborated by Wedbush, which raised its price target on Apple to a Street-high of $310, citing supply chain checks that suggest a potential 20% production increase for iPhone 17 and Pro models. In response, Apple's shares rallied over 4% to $256, erasing year-to-date losses. However, this bullish narrative is not without counterpoints, as a recent Jefferies report noted that iPhone lead times, a key demand indicator, were tracking below last year's levels. While the market is currently focused on the positive demand signals, underlying risks including China-related headwinds and questions around Apple's AI strategy persist.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong carrier sales data and bullish analyst revisions, investors should assess if their current long positioning in AAPL adequately reflects the potential for near-term outperformance driven by the iPhone cycle.
• Monitor subsequent data from other carriers and supply chain reports to validate the high-margin product mix, as the reported 75% Pro model share at T-Mobile is a critical variable for modeling Apple's revenue and gross margin upside.
• The divergence in early analyst reports on demand (Wedbush vs. Jefferies) suggests that early-cycle data is noisy; it may be prudent to await more comprehensive market-wide sell-through data before making substantial capital allocation changes.
• While the iPhone cycle is the primary driver, maintain a risk-aware posture regarding unresolved issues like China tensions and AI strategy, which could re-emerge as headwinds as the stock approaches its all-time high valuation.