Top 10 Charts from 2025

U.S. markets in 2025 showed broadening earnings and heavy capital flows: IPOs raised about $30 billion and secondaries nearly $170 billion in 2024, while buybacks and dividends each run around $1 trillion annually. AI 'hyperscaler' firms saw earnings grow faster than prices, compressing PE ratios, and dividend ex-dates generally move stocks down about 90% of the dividend value. Market-structure frictions are prominent — off-exchange trading exceeds 50% (about 70% excluding open/close), after-hours liquidity is highly concentrated (only ~4,354 stocks trade >$10k from 4–8pm and ~644 overnight), and a late-2025 round-lot reduction for >$250 stocks (≈250 symbols) materially altered spreads, depth and NBBO economics.

Analysis

Market structure: The shift to >50% off-exchange trading (near 70% ex open/close) and moves toward 24-hour trading favor data vendors and centralized venues that monetize market data and extended-hours access (NDAQ, ICE), and professional market-makers capturing wider, fragmented spreads (VIRT). Exchanges gain pricing power on data/connection fees while retail brokers reliant on payment-for-order-flow (PFOF) face margin pressure; liquidity provision economics will bifurcate winners (high-frequency liquidity engines) and losers (low-fee retail intermediaries). Cross-asset: expect tighter coupling of U.S. equities with FX/futures volatility patterns overnight and higher after-hours realized vol that lifts short-dated options premia by 10-30% around earnings windows.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% combined long position split 60/40 between ICE (ICE) and Nasdaq (NDAQ) over 6–12 months to capture increased data/extended-hours fees; add another 1% if overnight U.S. equity volume >10% of daytime volume within 12 months or if SEC does not ban rebates in the next 60 days.
• Initiate a 1.5% long position in Virtu Financial (VIRT) to capture wider, fragmented spreads; hedge with a 6‑month 5% OTM put sized at 25% of notional to protect against a systemic microstructure event or regulatory shock.
• Open a 1% short position in Robinhood (HOOD) and increase to 2% if within 30–60 days the SEC issues formal proposals to restrict PFOF or if dark/offs-exchange share exceeds 55% persistently, reflecting margin compression and revenue risk.
• Tactically buy ATM straddles on QQQ (or single-name ATM/near-ATM options on AAPL/AMZN/MSFT) with expiries 1–3 weeks centered on after-hours earnings announcements; allocate 0.5–1% notional per event to capture elevated post-close realized vol while limiting carry.