Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2025

Russian officials and state media are publicly conditioning rejection of the US-proposed 28‑point peace plan and framing any settlement as requiring Russia’s maximal demands, complicating Geneva talks on Nov. 23 that will include Ukrainian, U.S., British, French and German delegations. Fighting remains intense on multiple fronts: ISW reports contested battles in Kupyansk and a serious, dynamic campaign in the Pokrovsk direction—where Russia has massed large forces and ISW judges seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad very likely—while Ukrainian forces report local counterattacks. The conflict is escalating in depth and reach: Russia launched an overnight strike campaign (an Iskander and roughly 104 Shahed‑type/other drones, Ukraine reported shooting down ~89), Ukraine struck targets inside Russia (including an Mi‑8 helicopter and energy sites), and Ukrainian EW units claim to have spoofed at least 19–21 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, underscoring growing demand for air‑defense and EW capabilities and ongoing risks to energy and transport infrastructure. European security is also strained by unexplained drone overflights of Dutch air bases and airports, reinforcing the view that the war and a broader Russian “Phase Zero” campaign will sustain geopolitical and defense‑spending risks for markets.

Analysis

Russian political and information messaging is actively conditioning rejection of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan, with senior Duma figures publicly demanding adherence to "full demands" and state media framing the plan as insufficient; Ukrainian, US, British, French and German delegations are scheduled to meet in Geneva on November 23 to discuss the proposal, making diplomatic outcomes a near-term market-relevant catalyst. Military developments on multiple fronts remain intense and fluid: ISW reports contested fighting in Kupyansk and a high-intensity campaign in the Pokrovsk direction where Ukrainian sources say Russia concentrated over 150,000 servicemembers and Ukrainian General Staff estimates ~400 Russian soldiers inside Pokrovsk, while ISW assesses seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad as very likely though timing is unclear. The strike and counterstrike dynamic is escalating beyond the front lines: Russian overnight strikes included one Iskander-M and ~104 Shahed-type/other drones (Ukraine reported ~89 shot down), Ukraine claims downing a Russian Mi-8 with a long-range FP-1 drone and EW units report spoofing at least 19–21 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. These operational trends—heavy Russian losses, VDV redeployments, repeated attacks on energy/transport nodes and unexplained drone overflights in the Netherlands—imply sustained demand for air-defense and EW capabilities and elevated short-term risk to European energy, transport and insurance sectors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider overweighting exposure to select defense contractors and electronic‑warfare/air‑defense suppliers tied to NATO and Ukrainian procurement given increased strike volumes and reported EW successes (19–21 Kinzhals),
• Monitor and selectively hedge exposure to European energy utilities, airport/airline and transport logistics names due to repeated strikes on energy and transport infrastructure and unexplained drone overflights,
• Reduce or hedge concentrated exposure to Ukraine/neighboring regional assets and EM risk while maintaining liquidity to act on volatility driven by battlefield or diplomatic shocks,
• Use Geneva negotiations (Nov. 23), public Russian messaging on the peace plan, and troop-concentration indicators (e.g., the reported 150,000 in the Pokrovsk direction) as explicit triggers to re-evaluate risk positions