Tesla price target maintained at $330 by TD Cowen on delivery update

TD Cowen maintained its Buy rating and $330 price target on Tesla despite lowering its Q2 delivery estimate to 362,000 vehicles (from 400,000) and its Q2 EPS estimate to $0.33, reflecting reduced expectations in China and the US. The firm, however, views this as "demand deferral" rather than "demand destruction," maintaining long-term financial projections and noting the revised delivery forecast still represents a Q1 increase. Concurrently, Tesla launched its robotaxi service, drawing positive analyst sentiment, yet also reported a significant 27.9% decline in European sales for May and experienced an executive departure, highlighting mixed operational signals.

Analysis

Tesla (TSLA) presents a mixed outlook as TD Cowen maintains its Buy rating and $330 price target despite lowering its Q2 delivery estimate to 362,000 vehicles from 400,000, citing reduced expectations in China and the U.S. This revised forecast, which also prompted a Q2 EPS estimate cut to $0.33, is still an increase over the 337,000 vehicles delivered in Q1, with the firm characterizing the U.S. slowdown as temporary "demand deferral" rather than permanent "demand destruction." This near-term operational headwind is counterbalanced by positive strategic developments, notably the launch of its robotaxi service, which led Benchmark to raise its price target to $475. However, significant risks persist, evidenced by a 27.9% year-over-year decline in European sales for May amid growing competition, the departure of executive Omead Afshar, and a request for confidentiality in its safety communications with the NHTSA. The situation encapsulates a conflict between short-term delivery challenges and the long-term valuation potential of its AI and autonomy ventures, reflected in the wide analyst target range of $115 to $500.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely watch the official Q2 delivery report, as a figure below the revised 362,000 estimate could intensify concerns about demand and competitive pressures from the noted 27.9% sales drop in Europe.
• Long-term investors focused on the autonomy thesis may interpret the current delivery headwinds as a tactical opportunity, given that analysts like TD Cowen and Benchmark are maintaining Buy ratings based on the potential of the new robotaxi service.
• Given the conflicting signals, it is critical to scrutinize management's upcoming commentary for clarification on the demand environment in China and the U.S., the impact of European competition, and the timeline for scaling autonomous vehicle initiatives.