Notable Friday Option Activity: STEP, OKLO, MARA

Options activity was heavy in Oklo Inc (OKLO) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), with OKLO seeing 83,612 contracts (~8.4 million underlying shares), about 60.9% of its one‑month ADV of 13.7M shares, and particularly 6,902 contracts on the $45 put expiring Feb 13, 2026 (~690,200 shares). MARA recorded 271,653 contracts (~27.2 million underlying shares), roughly 60% of its one‑month ADV of 45.3M shares, led by 22,753 contracts on the $8 call expiring Feb 13, 2026 (~2.3 million shares).

Analysis

Market structure: The concentrated options flow (OKLO puts and MARA calls each ~60% of ADTV) signals asymmetric short-delta and long-delta hedging pressure that can amplify moves via dealer hedging. In the next 1–10 trading days, heavy $45 puts on OKLO are likely to create downward stock-sale pressure if market-makers delta-hedge, while $8 calls on MARA create buy-pressure in underlying that can lift the stock and increase crypto correlation.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an adverse regulatory action on crypto (MARA) or an operational/regulatory setback for nuclear developer OKLO; either could move shares >30% within weeks. Immediate horizon (days) is dominated by gamma-driven flows; medium (weeks–months) by implied vol re-pricing and BTC moves; long-term (quarters) fundamentals (BTC price, OKLO licensing) reassert. Hidden risk: retail-driven options can flip from directional to liquidity traps if market-makers unwind positions simultaneously.

Trade implications: Execute defined-risk options trades to exploit dealer hedging: favor long MARA convexity via LEAP call spreads and defined bearish exposure to OKLO via put spreads, keeping portfolio exposure to each <=3%. Watch cross-asset triggers: BTC moves >10% or implied vol shifts >25% relative to realized vol should be used as automatic re-eval points.

Contrarian angles: Large call volume in MARA could be dealer selling of volatility (not pure bullish speculation), making short-dated IV sell strategies profitable but risky around BTC events. Similarly, heavy OKLO put flow could be put-selling by institutions (synthetic long) rather than pure bearish bets — price reaction may be mean-reverting after initial gamma squeeze.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2% portfolio long in MARA via a Feb-2026 $8/$14 call debit spread (buy $8, sell $14); max loss = 2% portfolio, target exit = +50% or if BTC drops >15% within 30 days.
• Open a 1% portfolio bearish position in OKLO via Feb-2026 $45/$35 put debit spread (buy $45 put, sell $35 put); cut losses if OKLO trades above $55 for 3 consecutive sessions or IV compresses >30% from trade entry.