Soybeans Shrugging Off Bean Oil Losses for Midday Gains

Soybean futures are trading higher, up 3 to 6 cents, driven by strong old crop export sales reported by the USDA at 307,939 MT, exceeding trade estimates. Soybean meal sales also met expectations, while bean oil sales landed in the middle of estimates; the International Grains Council's report showed steady world soybean production but trimmed 2025/26 world stocks by 2 MMT to 81 MMT, further supporting the upward price movement.

Analysis

Soybean futures are exhibiting upward price movement, trading 3 to 6 cents higher at midday, underpinned by several positive fundamental indicators. The USDA's weekly Export Sales report detailed old crop soybean sales of 307,939 metric tons (MT) for the week ending May 15th, exceeding trade estimates of 100,000 to 300,000 MT. This volume represents a 9% increase from the prior week and a 10.2% rise compared to the same week in the previous year, with Mexico leading purchases at 134,100 MT. However, new crop sales for 2025/26 were notably weak at 15,000 MT, significantly below the anticipated 90,000 to 400,000 MT. Soybean meal futures also gained, rising $4.70 per ton, with export sales of 382,652 MT falling within expectations. Conversely, soy oil futures experienced a decline of 84 points, even as sales of 13,660 MT met mid-range market forecasts. Further contributing to the bullish sentiment for soybeans, the International Grains Council's monthly report maintained global soybean production at 428 MMT, but increased consumption estimates by 2 MMT, leading to a 2 MMT reduction in projected 2025/26 world stocks to 81 MMT. This tightening supply outlook is reflected in cash markets, with the cmdtyView Cash Bean price up 5 3/4 cents to $10.19 1/4, and July 25 Soybeans trading at $10.68 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The strong performance in old crop export sales and the reduction in global stock estimates suggest a favorable environment for soybean prices; investors may consider maintaining or initiating long positions in soybean futures, particularly for nearer-term contracts.
• The significant shortfall in new crop export sales compared to expectations warrants careful monitoring, as this could indicate potential future demand weakness that may temper long-term bullish sentiment if the trend persists.
• Given the contrasting movements, with soybean and meal futures rising while soy oil futures decline, investors should assess soybean crush margins and consider a cautious or potentially bearish stance on soybean oil specific investments until its price trend aligns or fundamental support emerges.