Corn Closes Thursday with Gains as Export Business Gives Bulls a Boost

Corn futures closed higher, gaining 4-6 cents, primarily driven by exceptionally strong new crop export sales that significantly surpassed expectations. New crop business for 2025/26 reached 3.16 MMT, bringing total sales to 11.777 MMT, marking the second highest on record for this period. This robust forward demand for corn, despite weaker old crop sales, underpinned the price gains and signals strong future market interest.

Analysis

Corn futures demonstrated notable strength, with contracts closing 4 to 6 cents higher, driven by a significant divergence between current and forward-looking demand signals. While old crop export sales for the week ending July 31 were notably weak at 170,428 metric tons (MT), the second lowest for the marketing year, this was overshadowed by exceptionally strong new crop business. New crop sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 3.16 million metric tons (MMT), substantially exceeding market expectations. This brings the total forward sales to 11.777 MMT, the second-highest volume on record for this specific week, trailing only the 2021/22 season. The market is clearly pricing in this robust future demand, evidenced by the December contract closing at $4.07, with major new crop purchases attributed to unknown destinations (1.28 MMT), Mexico, and South Korea, signaling strong international interest.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The exceptionally strong new crop export sales, representing the second-highest level on record, provide a strong fundamental basis for a bullish outlook on deferred corn contracts such as December 2025 and beyond.
• Investors should monitor the significant divergence between weak near-term demand, reflected in low old crop sales, and record forward bookings, as this dynamic may present opportunities for calendar spread trades.
• The ability of the December contract to sustain its position above the key psychological level of $4.00 should be watched as a critical technical indicator of continued market strength.
• Pay close attention to future USDA reports for clarification on the 1.28 MMT in sales to 'unknown' destinations, as confirmation of a major buyer could serve as a significant further price catalyst.