1 Overlooked Metric That Makes Nvidia Stock a Screaming Buy Right Now

Despite U.S. export restrictions on its H20 chips, Nvidia's revenue growth remains robust, with Q1 fiscal year 2026 revenue increasing 69% year-over-year to $44 billion; factoring in lost H20 sales, growth would have been 79%. The company's dominance in the data center GPU market, estimated at 90% market share, positions it to capitalize on the projected expansion of data center capital expenditures from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028, suggesting potential for Nvidia to exceed Wall Street's currently projected growth estimates.

Analysis

Nvidia (NVDA) maintains a remarkable growth trajectory despite its large market capitalization, driven by its dominant position in the data center GPU market, where it holds an estimated market share of 90% or greater. The data center sector is itself poised for significant expansion, with third-party estimates cited by Nvidia projecting capital expenditures to grow from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028. While reported revenue growth for Q1 fiscal year 2026 was 69% year-over-year to $44 billion, the article argues that U.S. export restrictions on H20 chips artificially mask stronger underlying performance. Factoring in an estimated $2.5 billion in lost H20 revenue for Q1 and an $8 billion reduction in Q2 guidance due to these restrictions, adjusted year-over-year revenue growth would be 79% for Q1 (to $46.5 billion) and a projected 77% for Q2 (to $53 billion). This adjusted perspective suggests that Nvidia's domestic demand and core growth rate remain consistently high, comparable to the 78% growth seen in Q4 of the previous fiscal year, contrary to appearances of a slowdown. The article posits that Wall Street analysts, who project 53% revenue growth for the current year and 26% for the next, may be underestimating Nvidia's potential, particularly as the H20 chip headwind normalizes, potentially leading to significant estimate beats and stock appreciation in the latter half of 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the impact of adjusting Nvidia's reported revenue for the U.S. export restrictions on H20 chips, as this reveals a potentially more robust and consistent underlying growth rate than headline figures suggest.
• Monitor Nvidia's performance relative to Wall Street consensus estimates, as the normalization of H20 chip sales comparisons next year could provide a catalyst for exceeding these forecasts, a scenario the market may not be fully pricing in.
• Evaluate Nvidia's continued ability to capture the expanding data center market and sustain high growth in its core segments, as the article suggests current domestic demand remains exceptionally strong despite the company's substantial scale and geopolitical factors.