Decline in travel to United States set to continue

Swiss arrivals to the United States have declined from 474,550 in 2019 to 361,000 last year (a 10.6% drop) and Visit USA expects a further 20–25% decline in 2026 to below 300,000. This weakening comes despite a favourable FX backdrop—the dollar at its weakest vs the franc since 2015—and attractive airfares, with political and reputational concerns (cited as Trump-era policies) deterring primarily first-time visitors. Swiss visitors are high-value (around $295 per person per day excluding airfare and hotels) so continued declines may pressure US tourism revenues and strain carriers and tour operators serving the Swiss market even as airlines report softer US booking trends.

Analysis

Market structure: A 20–25% drop in Swiss arrivals to the US (to <300k in 2026) disproportionately hits high-ARPU segments—urban hotels, sightseeing operators, premium retail and transatlantic seat inventory—while domestic-only leisure providers gain relative share. Expect downstream margin pressure on US gateway hotels (NYC, Boston, SF) and transatlantic yields; airlines with flexible capacity can offset via promo pricing.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include political escalations (renewed restrictive visa/policy steps tied to a Trump administration) or reciprocal travel advisories that could deepen losses >30% vs. baseline within 6–18 months. Hidden dependencies: an FX reversal (CHF weakening or USD rebound) or a tourism marketing campaign could rapidly reverse demand; near-term booking windows (next 60–90 days) are the main catalyst to confirm trend.

Trade implications: Tactical short exposure to internationally exposed hotel/OTA names (MAR, HLT, EXPE) and short international-heavy carriers (UAL, AAL) vs. long domestic-tilted names (LUV, RCL domestic exposure) for 3–12 months; consider put spreads to limit premium spend ahead of summer booking prints. FX: long CHF vs USD as a hedge for 1–3 quarters if dollar remains pressured.

Contrarian angle: The absolute Swiss volume is small (~300k) so market may over-penalize large-cap travel stocks—if summer bookings miss by <10% expect rallies on cheapening marketing spend; historical parallels (post-2016 political dips) show recovery within 12–18 months once headlines cool. Monitor RevPAR/booking deltas >3–5% as trigger points for position changes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 1% portfolio short in MAR (Marriott) via a Dec-2026 put spread (buy Dec-2026 15% OTM puts, sell Dec-2026 25% OTM puts) to capture downside if US gateway RevPAR guidance misses by >=3% in Q3 2026; add another 1% if RevPAR miss >5%.
• Establish a 1.5% long LUV (Southwest) / 1.5% short UAL (United) pair to express domestic leisure outperformance vs international exposure; enter if transatlantic booking deltas for May–Aug show >10% y/y weakness, target 6–9 month horizon, stop-loss if spread narrows by >10%.
• Buy CHF vs USD exposure equal to 1–2% of portfolio (spot or 3M forward) to hedge currency-driven demand shocks; set protective stop-loss on adverse USDCHF move of +3% and take-profit if USDCHF falls additional 5% from current levels or political headlines trigger further USD weakness.
• Purchase a tactical EXPE Dec-2026 10/20% OTM call spread sized 0.5% portfolio as a recovery play if OTA booking trends stabilize (+10% sequential) in the next 60 days; if not, let the spread expire (defined loss limited to premium).
• If Edelweiss/Visit USA publishing within 30–60 days confirms Swiss summer bookings down >=15% y/y for May–Aug, increase hotel/OTA and international-airline shorts by 50%; reduce shorts if data improves by >=10% vs the prior month.