Accor stock slumps as FX headwinds, guidance overshadow first-half beat

Accor (ACCP) shares declined approximately 10% after reporting a mixed financial performance, with stronger-than-expected Q2 EBITDA of €552 million offset by a revenue miss, slightly lower net profit, and RevPAR growth of 4.1% that missed expectations. A significant foreign exchange headwind, particularly from the euro's appreciation, was a key factor in the negative market reaction, leading Jefferies to project full-year EBITDA below analyst consensus despite Accor maintaining its FY25 guidance.

Analysis

Accor's shares experienced a significant decline of approximately 10% despite reporting a 9.4% increase in EBITDA to €552 million, which surpassed the consensus estimate of €544 million. The negative market reaction was driven by a combination of missed expectations on other key metrics and a challenging outlook clouded by foreign exchange headwinds. Specifically, second-quarter revenue per available room (RevPAR) grew 4.1%, falling short of the 4.7% forecast, while net profit of €233 million also missed the €246 million analyst forecast. The company is contending with a substantial €60 million FX headwind for the full year, primarily due to the euro's appreciation against the dollar. While Accor maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, including 3% to 4% RevPAR growth, Jefferies analysts noted this implies a full-year EBITDA between €1.161 billion and €1.172 billion, which is below the consensus of €1.208 billion. Furthermore, the Net Unit Growth (NUG) guidance of 3.5% was also slightly below the 3.7% market expectation, reinforcing the "mixed bag" assessment and shifting the investment thesis heavily towards management's execution capabilities in a complex macroeconomic environment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should re-evaluate full-year earnings models, as the company's maintained guidance, when adjusted for the stated €60 million FX headwind, points to an EBITDA figure potentially below current analyst consensus.
• Monitor upcoming RevPAR figures closely, as the recent miss in this key performance indicator was a primary catalyst for the stock's decline and serves as a crucial barometer for future pricing power and demand.
• Following the 10% drop in share price, assess whether the current valuation adequately reflects the heightened risks from currency fluctuations and slightly decelerated net unit growth forecasts.