Kongsberg Automotive ASA – Company presentation at DNB Carnegie Conference

Kongsberg Automotive will present at the DNB Carnegie Conference in Oslo today, 26 March 2026, at approximately 12:30 CET; the presentation will be given by President & CEO Trond Fiskum and CFO Erik Magelssen and the slide deck is attached. This is a routine investor presentation and press release (IR and media contacts provided) and is unlikely to have a material impact on the stock.

Analysis

Investor-facing management disclosures from mid-sized automotive suppliers reliably reveal two discreet levers: near-term margin cadence (cost-out, raw-material pass-throughs) and multi-year content per vehicle (EV/ADAS wins). Expect market reaction to hinge on quantifiable guidance — a 100–300bp upward revision to mid-cycle EBIT margin or a clear, multi-year OEM content ramp will re-rate comparable Tier‑1 multiples within 3–12 months; absent that, sentiment compresses quickly within days.

Second-order winners are not necessarily the presenting company but peers with pre-existing high electrical/ECU content per vehicle (software-enabled modules) and balance-sheet capacity to absorb program ramp capex; losers are low-technology mechanical suppliers and small Tier‑2s that compete on price. OEMs that recently stretched inventories or announced platform delays create asymmetric downside: a single major platform push-back can remove 2–6% of a supplier’s near‑term revenue and flip margins by several hundred basis points over the next 2–4 quarters.

Key catalyst calendar: immediate (days) for market sentiment post-disclosure and Q&A; medium (3–12 months) for order-book roll and supplier quoting cycles; long (12–36 months) for OEM platform launches driving EV content. Tail risks that would reverse a positive read include abrupt OEM production cuts, rapid commodity inflation (copper/aluminum >20% YoY), currency swings (NOK/EUR moves impacting reported margins by 100–200bps), or revealed warranty/software liabilities that compress multiples by 20–40% relative to peers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long Aptiv (APTV) — 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: highest leverage to software/EV electrical content among large Tier‑1s; buy stock or 9–12 month call spread (e.g., buy 1x ATM, sell 1x+20% strike) to cap cost. Target +25–40% if market rewards EV content; downside -30% on macro OEM demand shock. Stop-loss at -20%.
• Pair trade: Long APTV / Short Lear (LEA) — 3–9 month horizon. Rationale: capture relative outperformance of software/EV‑centric supplier vs seating/mechanicals as investors re-rate content winners. Set 1:1 notional; target 15–25% relative gain. Risk: if cyclical recovery lifts all suppliers, pair may underperform by ~10–15%.
• Event gamma: Buy 2–6 week calls on best‑in‑class Tier‑1s (APTV or BWA) into next management disclosure windows — small size (0.5–1% book) to capture 8–12% bump from positive surprise while limiting downside to premium paid. Exit on close of event day or at +100% option gain.
• Defensive short on high‑leverage small Tier‑2s (select names with weak FCF) — 6–12 month horizon. Rationale: supply consolidation risk if OEMs consolidate vendors; small Tier‑2s face 20–40% downside from order loss and refinancing stress. Keep position size small and pair against a long Tier‑1 to hedge market beta.