Wheat Losses Continuing at Midday on Wednesday

Wheat futures are broadly lower across all three markets on Wednesday, with contracts down 5-9 cents, as analysts anticipate 400,000-700,000 MT in export sales ahead of Thursday's report. This market weakness coincides with a Ukrainian farm union's projection of a 21.8 MMT wheat crop for 2025, a reduction from last year's 22.7 MMT and slightly below the USDA's 22 MMT estimate, signaling potential shifts in global supply dynamics.

Analysis

Wheat futures are experiencing broad-based losses, with CBT soft red wheat down 7 to 8 cents, KC HRW futures declining by 5 to 7.5 cents, and MPLS spring wheat falling 8 to 9 cents. This bearish price action precedes the weekly Export Sales report, for which analysts anticipate sales between 400,000 and 700,000 MT, suggesting market positioning ahead of the data release. Contrasting with the current market weakness is a new supply-side signal from Ukraine, where a farm union projects the 2025 wheat crop at 21.8 MMT. This forecast is not only lower than last year's 22.7 MMT but also falls slightly below the USDA's 22 MMT estimate, indicating a potentially tighter global supply outlook from a key exporting nation that the market is currently discounting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming Export Sales report, as a significant deviation from the expected 400,000-700,000 MT range could be a primary short-term price driver.
• The updated Ukrainian crop forecast of 21.8 MMT, which is below both last year's output and the USDA estimate, presents a potential long-term bullish catalyst that investors should weigh against the current bearish market sentiment.
• Given the conflicting signals of immediate bearish price action against tightening forward supply estimates, it may be prudent to await the market's reaction to the export data before establishing or adding to positions.