Soybeans Falling to Start Friday

Nearby soybean futures slid about 8–9¢ while the national cash bean price averaged $10.22½; soymeal futures were firmer (up $0.30–0.90) and soy oil weaker (down 23–29 points) as December contracts expire today. U.S. weekly export bookings for the week to Nov. 13 totaled 695,598 MT—improved from the prior week but 61% below a year ago—leaving accumulated commitments at 18.4 MMT (37.5% below last year), while known China purchases total 3.37 MMT and Sinograin has scheduled a 513,000‑MT imported soybean auction, all of which will influence near‑term demand flows. September shipments were 2.856 MMT (down 8.3% y/y but the second largest in five years), soymeal hit a seventh consecutive monthly record at 1.32 MMT, and soy oil shipments fell to the weakest since Oct 2024—a mix of softer overall bean demand versus strong meal export activity that suggests downside pressure on beans but continued support for meal values.

Analysis

Nearby soybean futures are trading lower by roughly 8 to 9 cents after modest early gains, with the national average cash bean price at $10.22 1/2 (up 1 3/4 cents); Jan, Mar and May contracts closed slightly higher on Thursday but are currently about 8 to 8.5 cents weaker and the December contract expires today, with 26 deliveries for soybean meal and 34 for bean oil recorded overnight. Soymeal futures are firmer, up $0.30 to $0.90, while soy oil is weaker by 23 to 29 points, indicating a divergence between meal and oil components of the crush complex.

U.S. export bookings for the week ending Nov. 13 totaled 695,598 MT—an improvement from the prior week but 61% below the same week last year—leaving accumulated sale commitments at 18.4 MMT, or 37.5% below last year; known China purchases stand at 3.37 MMT and Sinograin has scheduled a 513,000 MT imported soybean auction next Tuesday. September physical exports were 2.856 MMT (down 8.29% y/y but the second largest in five years), meal shipments hit a seventh consecutive monthly record at 1.32 MMT, and soy oil shipments fell to 17,617 MT, the weakest since October 2024.

The data present mixed fundamentals: softer aggregate bean commitments and an upcoming Sinograin auction create downside pressure on soybean futures, while persistent record meal shipments and stronger soymeal futures support crush demand and meal valuations. Market sentiment is mildly negative and the quantified market impact is modest (0.32), implying near-term volatility around export flows and the December expiry; traders should prioritize monitoring weekly export updates and the Sinograin auction as primary catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or hedge near-term long positions in nearby soybean futures given the 8–9 cent weakness, weak accumulated export commitments and the December contract expiry
• Consider relative exposure to soymeal or crush-proxy trades where futures are up $0.30–0.90 and monthly meal shipments are at record levels, as meal fundamentals are comparatively supportive
• Monitor Sinograin's 513,000 MT auction, weekly export sales and subsequent shipment data as key catalysts and use position sizing or options to manage downside risk