Hamas leader vows to curb Gaza attacks on Israel but rejects disarmament

Khaled Meshaal, head of Hamas Abroad, told Al Jazeera Hamas will take steps to curb future attacks on Israel but firmly rejects disarmament, saying surrendering weapons would be like "removing the soul" of the group. He warned momentum toward a second phase of the US‑brokered ceasefire is slipping as Hamas cites at least 738 breaches since Oct. 10, continued Israeli attacks that have killed at least 377 people, an unopened Rafah crossing and aid volumes below agreed levels, even as most captives and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners were exchanged in phase one. Disarmament, the makeup of any interim authority (reports say Tony Blair has been ruled out) and deployment of an international stabilization force — Turkey has offered to participate but Israel opposes Turkish troops — remain core unresolved issues that could stall negotiations over a full Israeli withdrawal beyond the so‑called "yellow line."

Analysis

Khaled Meshaal’s interview signals a conditional Hamas willingness to curb attacks while firmly rejecting full disarmament, describing surrender as “removing the soul” of the group. The article cites at least 738 alleged ceasefire breaches since October 10 and reports at least 377 people killed in Israeli attacks, while noting most captives taken in the October 2023 attack and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners were returned in phase one; aid volumes remain below agreement and the Rafah crossing is largely unopened.

Mediators have warned that momentum toward a second phase is slipping; Qatari, Turkish and Egyptian officials urge intensified diplomacy while a US official says negotiations are “intensive” and progressing. Core unresolved issues—disarmament, the composition and mandate of an international stabilization force (Turkey could contribute but Israel opposes Turkish troops), and the degree of Israeli withdrawal beyond the “yellow line”—create high conditionality for any formal end to hostilities.

Market-impact signals show moderately negative sentiment (score -0.5) with a material but not extreme market-impact score (0.45), underscoring elevated regional risk. Investors should treat the situation as a persistent geopolitical tail-risk that can rapidly affect regional assets, energy prices and defense-related flows if ceasefire breaches or aid blockages intensify.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce directional exposure to Israel/nearby EM equities and sovereign credit and consider hedges (options or CDS) until durable second-phase commitments on aid, Rafah access and disarmament framework are confirmed
• Monitor three near-term triggers—daily reported ceasefire breaches, Rafah crossing status and agreed aid volume deliveries—and adjust risk sizing when any of these move unfavorably
• Use tactical, size-limited allocations to defense suppliers or energy commodities as portfolio hedges rather than core positions, and prefer instruments with defined downside (options, stop-limited trades)