Wheat futures are mostly flat on Tuesday, paring Monday's losses, as the market digests mixed export data and a significant tender. Weekly USDA export shipments dropped 42.18% to 505,096 MT, though marketing year-to-date exports for 2025/26 remain up 16.67% at 10.177 MMT. Saudi Arabia's purchase of 455,000 MT provided some demand support, while the absence of Crop Progress data due to government issues leaves winter wheat planting progress uncertain.
Wheat is showing most contracts within a penny of unchanged on Tuesday morning, as the winter wheat contracts are higher The wheat complex saw losses to kick off the new week. CBT soft red wheat futures were down 2 to 3 cents at the Monday close. Preliminary open interest was up 4,303 contracts on Monday. KC HRW futures saw 1 to 2 losses in most contracts. MPLS spring wheat futures were down 3 to 4 cents in the front months. USDA tallied wheat export shipments at 505,096 MT (18.56 mbu) during the week ending on October 2. That was 42.18% below the week prior but 38.46% above the same week last year. South Korea was the top destination of 177,333 MT, with 60,875 MT headed to Japan and 54,989 to Malaysia. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are now 10.177 MMT (373.95 mbu) since June 1, which is now 16.67% above the same period last year. With the government offline, Crop Progress data was not released, as the trade was looking for winter wheat to be near the 50% planted mark as of Sunday. Saudi Arabia purchased an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat in their tender that closed on Friday, with results reported on Monday. Dec 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.12 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents, currently up 3/4 cent Mar 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents, currently up 1/4 cent Dec 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.95 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents, currently up 1 cent Mar 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.17, down 1 1/2 cents, currently up 1/4 cent Dec 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.57 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 1/2 cent Mar 26 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.76 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 1/4 cent On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Wheat futures displayed a largely unchanged performance on Tuesday morning, partially recovering from Monday's losses which saw CBOT, KC HRW, and MPLS contracts decline by 2-4 cents. This price action reflects a market grappling with conflicting signals from export data and immediate supply insights. The overall sentiment remains neutral, with a moderate market impact score of 0.45, suggesting no strong directional conviction. USDA reported weekly wheat export shipments for the week ending October 2 at 505,096 MT, which is a 42.18% decrease from the prior week. However, marketing year-to-date exports for 2025/26 reached 10.177 MMT, an encouraging 16.67% increase over the same period last year, indicating robust underlying demand. Further supporting demand, Saudi Arabia purchased an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat in a recent tender. A key uncertainty in the market stems from the absence of the Crop Progress report, delayed due to government issues, which leaves winter wheat planting progress unverified. The trade was anticipating planting near the 50% mark, making this data gap significant for assessing future supply conditions. This lack of timely information could contribute to price volatility once the data becomes available.
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neutral
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0.10
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