Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Basic Materials Stocks Now

Zacks highlights its proprietary Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool, designed to forecast earnings surprises by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. When combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better, this methodology has historically yielded a 70% success rate in predicting positive surprises and an average annual return of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. The article identifies Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) with an 8.77% positive ESP and Cameco (CCJ) with a 25.71% positive ESP as current examples, suggesting potential positive earnings surprises for these basic materials stocks.

Analysis

The provided analysis centers on the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model, a proprietary tool for identifying companies likely to report earnings above consensus estimates. This model's predictive power is reportedly significant; a combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better has historically resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, generating an average annual return of 28.3% based on a 10-year backtest. The article applies this framework to two Basic Materials stocks with upcoming earnings. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), holding a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), exhibits a positive ESP of +8.77%, derived from its Most Accurate Estimate of $1.80 per share versus a consensus of $1.66 ahead of its July 30, 2025 report. Similarly, Cameco (CCJ), with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), shows a more pronounced positive ESP of +25.71%, based on a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.44 against a consensus of $0.35 for its July 31, 2025 release. The positive ESP figures for both companies suggest that the most recent analyst revisions are more bullish than the broader consensus, flagging a potential for near-term stock price appreciation post-earnings.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider the +8.77% ESP and #1 (Strong Buy) rank for Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) a strong bullish indicator for its upcoming earnings report on July 30, 2025.
• The substantial +25.71% ESP for Cameco (CCJ) signals a significant potential for a positive earnings surprise, which could act as a near-term catalyst despite its more neutral #3 (Hold) rank.
• This methodology is a quantitative, short-term strategy focused on earnings events, so positions based on these ESP signals warrant close monitoring of the actual results to confirm the thesis.