Soybeans Push Higher into Thursday’s Close

Soybean futures closed higher across most contracts Thursday, with cash prices also up, despite mixed fundamental data. While USDA reported 541,055 MT in new 2025/26 export sales for the week, total commitments for the new marketing year are starting at a 15-year low of 9.35 MMT, and bean oil sales saw net reductions below expectations. Concurrently, CONAB raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop estimate by 1.92 MMT to 171.47 MMT, suggesting an increased global supply outlook.

Analysis

Soybean futures and cash prices registered modest gains, with front-month contracts rising 7 to 10 cents and the national cash price reaching $9.57 1/4. This price strength, however, is juxtaposed with several bearish fundamental indicators. The USDA's weekly data revealed that total export commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year are beginning at 9.35 MMT, a 15-year low, signaling significantly weak forward demand. This demand-side concern is further compounded by product sales, where soybean oil sales posted a net reduction of 6,421 MT, falling below analyst expectations. On the supply side, Brazil's CONAB increased its 2024/25 soybean crop estimate by 1.92 MMT to 171.47 MMT, adding to expectations of a larger global supply. The current market rally appears disconnected from these weaker long-term demand signals and growing supply estimates, suggesting the gains may be driven by short-term positioning ahead of the NOPA crush data release.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should be cautious of the current rally in soybean futures, as the price gains run counter to fundamentally bearish data, including a 15-year low in forward export commitments and an increased Brazilian crop forecast.
• Monitor Monday's NOPA August crush report closely, as this data will be critical for determining near-term price direction and could either validate or contradict the weak demand outlook presented by export sales.
• Given the weakening fundamental picture characterized by lower forward sales and a higher projected global supply of 171.47 MMT from Brazil, it may be prudent to hedge long positions or re-evaluate bullish exposure to soybeans.