Tech Slumps Before NVIDIA Earnings: Any ETF Winners in Tech Space?

The Nasdaq slipped 0.84% on Nov. 17 as major tech names weakened ahead of NVIDIA's Nov. 19 earnings; NVDA was down roughly 2% even after CEO Jensen Huang said the company has “half a trillion dollars” booked for 2025–26, a disclosure that boosts expectations but raises the risk that any cooling in demand could ripple across the sector. NVDA's Zacks Rank #2 and Earnings ESP +3.17% point to a likely earnings beat by historical metrics, while strategists at Canaccord and HSBC still see a plausible year-end rally despite valuation concerns. Mixed Fed signals on a potential December rate cut (Waller noting labor-market weakening, Vice Chair Jefferson urging caution) leave the policy backdrop uncertain but biased toward lower rates over time—supportive for growth tech—and the article highlights several lower‑P/E, positive‑momentum tech ETFs as alternative exposure (QQQ P/E 34.04; KNCT P/E 24.04; LEGR P/E 15.44; XT P/E 32.64).

Analysis

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84% on Nov. 17 as major tech names weakened ahead of NVIDIA’s expected Nov. 19 report; NVIDIA (NVDA) was down about 2% despite CEO Jensen Huang saying the company has “half a trillion dollars” booked for 2025–26, a disclosure that raises both upside expectations and sensitivity to any demand cooling. NVDA carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an Earnings ESP of +3.17%, and Zacks’ historical data suggests the combination of a positive ESP and a Rank of #3 or better results in a positive surprise roughly 70% of the time, implying an elevated probability of an earnings beat but also heightened expectations for guidance. Fed commentary was mixed — Governor Waller flagged months of labor-market weakening consistent with a potential December cut, while Vice Chair Jefferson urged caution — leaving policy tilted toward eventual easing, which would be constructive for growth tech if realized. Given valuation worries and capex-driven sell-offs, the article highlights lower-P/E, positive-momentum tech ETFs as alternatives: QQQ (P/E 34.04) and smaller funds such as KNCT (P/E 24.04, +3.7% month, 40 bps), LEGR (P/E 15.44, +2.0% month, 65 bps) and XT (P/E 32.64, +1.9% month, 46 bps), suggesting a trade-off between concentrated upside in NVDA and diversified exposure through cheaper thematic ETFs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a tactical long bias into NVDA ahead of the Nov. 19 print only with strict position sizing and options-based hedges given the Zacks Rank #2 and Earnings ESP +3.17% which raise beat probability but also set high expectations
• For medium-term exposure to tech themes without single-stock risk, shift or trim concentrated holdings into lower-P/E, positive-momentum ETFs cited (KNCT, LEGR, XT) while accounting for their fee levels (40–65 bps)
• Monitor upcoming Fed remarks and labor-market releases for signals on timing of rate cuts and watch NVDA’s post-earnings revenue/guidance for evidence of demand cooling; be prepared to reduce beta or add downside protection if guidance disappoints