The true cost of Thanksgiving dinner in 2025

A Talker Research survey finds the average American will spend $952 on Thanksgiving 2025 when travel is included, with hosts spending $175 on food, $110 on drinks, $83 on decor and $291 on miscellaneous items; typical gatherings have eight guests (~$22 per plate) and most people attend three events. Travel raises costs further (average $293 for those leaving home) amid rising plane fares cited by the Federal Reserve, while Wells Fargo data show some staples like turkey are down 3.7% and a pared-down ten-person meal can cost about $80 excluding drinks. The results highlight mixed pressures on household holiday budgets—higher overall outlays and travel costs but limited food-price inflation for core Thanksgiving items—relevant for retailers, grocery suppliers and travel sectors.

Analysis

Market structure: Holiday spending patterns favor value-led grocery and travel ecosystems more than luxury or specialty seasonal suppliers; grocers with private-label scale (COST, WMT, KR) gain incremental pricing power if commodity deflation persists, while branded protein suppliers (CALM, TSN, PPC) face margin squeeze. OTAs and booking platforms (EXPE, BKNG) capture disproportionate share of travel spend due to bundling and last‑minute demand elasticity; airlines gain revenue but remain sensitivity points to fuel and capacity.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a >10% oil/gasoline spike, large-scale airline disruptions (strikes/weather) or unexpected supply shock to poultry that reverses price trends; any of these would move consumption patterns within 7–90 days. Near term (days–weeks) the key drivers are booking cadence and Black Friday promotions; medium term (weeks–months) inventory and margin revisions; long term (quarters) structural share shifts toward private label and travel tech platform economics.

Trade implications: Expect positive carry for low-duration consumer staples and travel tech into Q1 2026; price-sensitive retailers can widen margins by 50–150 bps if commodity deflation persists, while poultry processors risk EPS downside of 10–20% if price pressure continues. Cross-asset, a services-inflation surprise would steepen the curve and lift short-term yields, pressuring long-duration equities and supporting bank net interest margins.

Contrarian angles: Consensus understates private‑label upside and overstates leisure-sensitivity of in-store seasonal buys—retailers could use lower input costs to buy share via promotions, not just margin expansion. The market may be under-hedged for a fuel shock that would hurt airlines while simultaneously pushing staples higher; that asymmetric risk favors hedged travel exposure rather than outright longs on carriers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2.5% long position in COST (Costco Wholesale) via equity for hold through Q1 2026 to capture membership resilience and potential 50–150 bps margin tailwind; add on a >2% same-store sales beat, trim to 1% if same-store sales miss by >2% or management cuts FY margin guide.
• Allocate 1.5% to travel-tech: buy EXPE (0.9%) and BKNG (0.6%) ahead of Nov–Jan booking season and pair with a limited-cost Jan 2026 call spread on EXPE (size = 0.5% notional) to express upside while capping premium; exit by 31 Jan 2026 or on a >5% sequential drop in OTA bookings data.
• Establish a 1.0% short position in CALM or PPC (choose based on liquidity) to express downside risk from continued turkey/poultry price weakness; set stop-loss to cover if poultry futures rally >10% in 30 days or company issues positive margin guidance; target hold = 3 months.
• Rotate 1–2% of portfolio from long-duration bonds into short-dated corporate credit or cash equivalents if upcoming CPI services prints show +0.3% m/m or Fed commentary tilts hawkish; implement by selling 1–2% notional of long-duration ETFs (e.g., TLT) and buying short-term IG ETFs (e.g., VCSH) as hedge.