Top 10% of Earners Drive a Growing Share of US Consumer Spending

The top 10% of U.S. earners accounted for 49.2% of total consumer spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1 and marking the highest level since 1989, according to Moody's Analytics. This increasing concentration of spending among the wealthy highlights a lopsided economic strength, raising concerns about a broader slowdown amidst decelerating hiring and caution among lower-income cohorts.

Analysis

A significant concentration of consumer spending power is evident in the US economy, with the top 10% of earners accounting for a record 49.2% of total expenditures in the second quarter. This figure, reported by Moody's Analytics, represents an increase from 48.5% in the first quarter and marks the highest share for this cohort in data extending back to 1989. This trend highlights a lopsided economic landscape where a small, wealthy demographic props up consumption. The reliance on this segment is particularly concerning when contrasted with a concurrent slowdown in hiring and increased wariness among other income groups, signaling potential fragility in the broader consumer market and elevating the risk of a future economic slowdown.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider overweighting exposure to luxury goods and high-end discretionary sectors that cater specifically to the top 10% of earners, as this demographic demonstrates more resilient spending patterns.
• It is prudent to exercise caution with investments in mass-market retailers and consumer staples companies, as他们的客户群（占收入分配的90%）正面临招聘放缓和日益加剧的经济不确定性。
• Closely monitor leading economic indicators, such as employment reports and consumer confidence surveys segmented by income, for signs of either a broadening recovery or a deterioration in spending among the high-income cohort, which would be a key bearish signal.