Invitation to presentation of the year-end report January-December 2025 for Truecaller AB (publ)

Truecaller will publish its year‑end interim report for January–December 2025 on 17 February 2026 at 07:30 CET, with a webcast and conference call at 13:00 CET where CEO Rishit Jhunjhunwala and CFO Odd Bolin will present and answer questions. The announcement reiterates the company’s scale (~450 million active users) and Nasdaq Stockholm listing (since 8 October 2021); investors should register for the webcast or teleconference and monitor the release for the actual revenue, earnings and any guidance that could influence the stock.

Analysis

Market structure: Truecaller (TRUE B, Nasdaq Stockholm) is a direct beneficiary of rising demand for verified communications in emerging markets — 450M reported active users is a defensible network effect that supports higher CPMs/subscriptions if monetization improves. Competitors (generic dialer apps, local spam-blockers, and large ad platforms) are losers if Truecaller converts users to paid tiers or B2B verification services; pricing power could rise +10–30% in targeted verticals (fintech, e‑commerce) over 12–24 months. Cross-asset: direct market impact is equity-specific, but a strong beat could re-rate Nordic growth tech and put modest upward pressure on EM FX via sentiment into India/SE Asia tech exposure; corporate bonds and commodities unlikely to move materialy.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory privacy enforcement (GDPR/TRAI fines or API access restrictions) and platform-level API deprecation (Apple/Google) that could reduce data access — low probability but >30% revenue hit in a stress case. Near-term catalysts: Feb 17 Q4 report (07:30 CET) and management webcast (13:00 CET); look for MAU retention, ARPU, and B2B contract wins as binary drivers in the next 0–90 days. Hidden dependencies: reliance on carrier relationships and phone-number metadata; loss of carrier partnerships would be a second‑order revenue shock.

Trade implications: Direct play — consider establishing a 2–3% long position in TRUE B ahead of the Feb 17 report, target 15–25% upside on a revenue/MAU beat within 30–90 days, place a hard stop at -10% to cap event risk. Options — if 30‑day implied vol <30%, buy an ATM 30‑ to 45‑day straddle sized to 0.5–1% portfolio risk to capture post-earnings repricing; otherwise buy a 3‑month 25% OTM call for asymmetric upside. Pair trade — long TRUE B vs short META (0.5–1% net exposure) to express EM mobile-verified ad upside vs broad social ad cyclicality through H1 2026.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight Truecaller’s B2B verification moat; if management shows accelerating ARPU from enterprise messaging, the market could underreact and misprice 12‑month revenue upside. Conversely, the market often underprices regulatory binary risk — an adverse privacy ruling would be a >40% downside fast move. Historical parallel: small-cap Nordic SaaS re‑ratings following clear enterprise monetization (e.g., Sinch/CLX trajectories) suggest a >20% re-rate is plausible if guidance upgrades occur.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Truecaller (TRUE B) before the Feb 17, 2026 Q4 report; set target +15–25% within 30–90 days on MAU/ARPU beats and a stop-loss at -10% to limit earnings event risk.
• If 30‑day implied volatility for TRUE B options is below 30%, buy an ATM 30–45 day straddle sized to risk 0.5–1% of portfolio; if IV is >30%, buy a 3‑month 25% OTM call (1% portfolio risk) to capture asymmetric upside from product/enterprise wins.
• Initiate a small pair trade: long TRUE B (1–2%) vs short Meta Platforms (META) (0.5–1%) to express expected outperformance of EM verified-communications monetization versus global social ads over H1 2026; rebalance after Feb 17 results.
• Reduce tactical exposure by 1–2% to ad-revenue dependent Nordic/EM mobile ad names if Truecaller shows enterprise monetization but flags higher regulatory/legal risk; monitor Swedish, EU, and TRAI filings for any formal inquiries within the next 30–60 days.