2026 Bull Market List: 11 Sweet Buys for the Year Ahead

Hagerty’s 2026 Bull Market List names 11 collector vehicles it expects to appreciate in the year ahead, spanning affordable enthusiast cars (e.g., 1999–2005 Mazda MX‑5 Miata with a #1 guide value of $26,800 and #3 at $9,400) to ultra‑rare exotica (2004–2007 Porsche Carrera GT with a #1 guide value of $2,000,000 and #4 at $1,000,000). The analysis points to younger buyer demographics, expanded online marketplaces, pop‑culture pedigree and rising restoration/labor costs as primary demand drivers, implying selective upside across muscle, performance and import icons rather than a broad market surge.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are niche marketplaces/insurers (HGTY) and specialist aftermarket/restoration suppliers because younger buyers + online listings expand addressable demand; losers are mainstream OEMs with heavy capex and inventory risk as discretionary classic buying competes for the same household wallet. Pricing power should rise for platforms that monetize transactions and recurring insurance premiums; limited supply of well‑preserved examples plus rising restoration labor costs imply tighter effective supply and upward pressure on mid-tier values over 6–36 months.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are a sharp consumer discretionary drawdown (recession reducing classic buying), a regulatory shock (25‑year import rule reversal or stricter emissions/registration) and concentrated operational risk at a single platform (Hagerty execution or underwriting loss). Time horizons: negligible market impact in days; material moves in 3–12 months (auction volumes, GMV); structural generational effects over 3–7 years. Hidden dependencies include insurance loss ratios, parts supply for restorations, and FX (JPY/USD moves can flood US with Skylines).

Trade implications: Direct play is selective long exposure to HGTY (marketplace + insurance) sized to 2–3% of risk capital with optionality; hedge with defined‑risk call spreads or put spreads. Pair trade: long HGTY vs underweight/short legacy OEM exposure (e.g., F) to express demographic-driven demand shift. Sector tilt: rotate +2% into consumer marketplaces/insurance and -2% out of broad auto OEMs over 3–12 months; use options to limit downside if macro softens.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates the stickiness of recurring insurance revenue and network effects from Hagerty Marketplace; mid‑tier collectibles (Miata NB, R33 GT‑R, VR6) are likely better risk/return than headline hypercars (Carrera GT) which may be priced for perfection. Overdone: mania in 1,000‑car hypercar segment; underdone: long‑tail models benefiting from younger buyers. Watch for import/regulatory flips that could temporarily compress prices while expanding long‑term collecting pools.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in HGTY (Hagerty) with a 6–12 month horizon; add leverage by buying 0.5x notional of 6‑month calls 20–30% OTM to capture upside from GMV/insurance growth while keeping max cash outlay limited.
• Implement a pair trade: long HGTY 2% vs short Ford (F) 1% via a 6‑month put spread on F (buy 6‑month 10% OTM put, sell 6‑month 20% OTM put) to express platform/collector demand vs legacy OEM execution risk.
• Rotate +1–2% overweight into aftermarket/restoration suppliers (e.g., LKQ) and reduce broad auto OEM exposure by 2% across the next 3 months to capture rising parts/restoration spend driven by aging inventories and higher labor costs.
• Set hard catalysts: if HGTY quarterly GMV growth >10% YoY or insurance policies >12% YoY, add another 1–2% to HGTY within 30 days; if consumer confidence falls >5 points MoM or auction volumes drop >15% YoY, cut HGTY exposure by at least 50% within 30 days.