The Zacks Analyst Blog Rigetti, IonQ and D-Wave Quantum

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is poised to report Q3 2025 results with an estimated loss per share of 5 cents and $2.39 million in revenue, reflecting modest year-over-year growth despite a projected full-year revenue decline. While facing near-term headwinds from U.S. public-sector funding uncertainty, the company is making strategic progress, including the rollout of its Cepheus-1-36Q quantum system, significant technical advancements, and key partnerships such as the $100M+ collaboration with Quanta Computer and NVIDIA integration. With over $570 million in cash, RGTI is well-capitalized for its long-term roadmap towards a 100+ qubit system, though analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, advising investors to await clearer commercial traction.

Analysis

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is poised to report Q3 2025 results with an estimated loss per share of 5 cents on $2.39 million in revenue, indicating modest 0.4% year-over-year growth. Despite a projected 19.7% full-year 2025 revenue decline to $8.7 million, the earnings estimate suggests a 37.5% improvement year-over-year in loss per share. The company's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and 0.00% Earnings ESP, coupled with a historical negative 10.8% average earnings surprise, temper near-term financial expectations.

Strategically, Rigetti is advancing its quantum roadmap, evidenced by the Cepheus-1-36Q system's rollout with 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity and planned Microsoft Azure integration. The company maintains a robust balance sheet with over $570 million in cash and no debt, providing significant capital for continued system development amidst U.S. public-sector funding uncertainties. International programs and disciplined spending further support its operational stability.

Commercial traction is emerging, highlighted by $5.7 million in Novera QPU orders, validating demand beyond government research. Key partnerships, including a substantial collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc. and integration with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform, are critical for scaling manufacturing and broadening the ecosystem. These alliances are designed to accelerate market entry and expand Rigetti's commercial reach.

While RGTI shares have seen a 125.1% YTD gain and trade at a premium P/B ratio of 20.13, reflecting long-term growth expectations, analysts maintain a "Hold" view. The focus remains on achieving a 100+ qubit system by year-end 2025 and a 1,000-qubit system within 3-4 years, with investors advised to prioritize fidelity metrics and commercial uptake over immediate revenue figures.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prioritize tracking Rigetti's technical roadmap milestones, such as the 100+ qubit system delivery and fidelity improvements, as these are key indicators of long-term quantum advantage.
• Closely evaluate the execution and commercial impact of strategic partnerships, particularly with Quanta Computer and NVIDIA, which are vital for scaling manufacturing and market penetration.
• Given near-term revenue uncertainty and the "Hold" recommendation, prospective investors should await clearer momentum from significant contract wins and consistent revenue scaling before establishing new positions.
• Current investors should maintain a patient stance, leveraging the company's strong balance sheet and focusing on strategic advancements rather than immediate financial performance.